Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to an unusually brisk news day for a hot, muggy summer morning.

Driving the agenda here at home this morning: If your thoughts (like ours) are starting to turn to your 2024 budget process, you’re going to want to read this morning’s lead story. The IMF might be holding its growth forecast for Egypt steady, but it’s changing course on inflation: Its latest forecast sees prices rising faster in 2024 than they did this year, a development that could see all of us looking ahead to another year of rising wage (and other) costs.

Also making headlines: The Big Two state-owned banks are about to come out with new USD certificates of deposit, a military-affiliated institution has taken 20% of Taqa Arabia (though Qalaa Holdings has a re-purchase option), and more.

PSA- The current heat wave will last through tomorrow, E gyptian Meteorological Authority spokesperson Manar Ghanem told Kelma Akhira last night ( watch, runtime: 2:10). “By Friday night, we will start to feel wind activity making temperatures cooler,” she said.

Our favorite weather app suggests a more … nuanced picture: The 14-day forecast sees the mercury at 43°C today and tomorrow in the capital city, 44°C on Friday and then 38-39°C Sunday, Monday and Tuesday before it spikes back into the low 40s through.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Can we expect to hear something from the government today about the power crisis that has seen rolling blackouts sweep much of the nation? Nighttime talk show host Amr Adib had suggested earlier this week that the government would hold a press conference by today to provide updates on how it plans to address the electricity shortages and when it expects normal service to be resumed.

C hatter in the local pre ss is that the Electricity Ministry is earmarking some EGP 2 bn to cover mazut imports to fire generation plants in a bid to partially make up for the shortfall in natural gas that sees generation well behind current demand. Government sources told us earlier this week that they plan to import increased quantities of fuel oil to plug the shortfall of gas supplies responsible for the blackouts.

It’s Fed day: The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates this evening following the end of its two-day policy meeting.

It’s looking like a rate hike: Predictions see the Fed resuming its tightening cycle by raising rate another 25 bps. The Fed “does not want to be head-faked by the recent deceleration in inflation and declare victory too soon,” KPMG’s Diane Swonk wrote in a note cited by Reuters. The expected hike would take the fed funds rate target range to 5.25-5.5%, the highest since the aftermath of the dot-com bust in 2001, and comes in the wake of optimistic inflation that showed consumer prices growing at their slowest rate since March 2021.

The Central Bank of Egypt will next pick up the question a week from tomorrow when its Monetary Policy Committee meets to review rates . We’ll be out with our customary pre-MPC poll on Sunday.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

El Sisi-Putin talks tomorrow: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will be in St. Petersburg tomorrow and Friday to attend the Russia-Africa summit, according to Russian media, which say that he will hold talks with President Vladimir Putin tomorrow. Putin will also reportedly be meeting with Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed, who last week agreed with El Sisi to accelerate efforts to find a solution to the long-running GERD dispute.

´The future of the grain pact will be near the top of the agenda for African delegates: African heads of state will discuss with Putin on Friday Moscow’s recent decision to pull out of the grain export pact with Ukraine, a move which threatens to provoke a fresh food crisis among African nations reliant on imports of Ukrainian wheat, Reuters reports.

Russia has moved to reassure African nations in recent days, with Putin pledging to continue to provide grain and fertilizer, and a Kremlin foreign policy aide emphasizing that Moscow isn’t ruling out a return to the pact, provided its demands are met.

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

The National Dialogue is back next Sunday: The dialogue is resuming its general sessions starting Sunday, with get-togethers planned on political rights, trade unions, and local administration, Dialogue General Coordinator Diaa Rashwan told Hadith Al Akhbar ( watch, runtime: 8:48). On Tuesday, the dialogue will discuss public debt and social justice, while Thursday’s sessions will focus on cultural industries and post-divorce issues.

The dialogue committees yesterday met to discuss the recommendations brought up during previous sessions regarding parliamentary elections, according to a statement. The dialogue kicked off in May, holding three weekly sessions discussing political, economic, and social issues.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

There’s no single story dominating the global front pages this morning: Bloomberg and the Washington Post are still leading with the escalating political crisis in Israel, the Wall Street Journal and CNBC are looking ahead to this evening’s Federal Reserve rate decision, and the New York Times and the Associated Press are focused on US immigration policy.

AND- China has recycled its foreign minister (kinda). Foreign Minister Qin Gang is unceremoniously out after a month of silence, replaced by veteran diplomat (and former foreign minister) Wang Yi. Reuters and the New York Times are reading the tea leaves.

Also capturing the world’s imagination: It costs a lot to play with AI. Reuters, the Financial Times, and the Wall Street Journal all have front-page looks at how costs are rising sharply at Microsoft and Google as they dip their toes into the next frontier of computing.

MUST READ- The Economist is just a little bit apprehensive about where Western markets are heading, noting that the AI boom has “turned into an everything boom” and wondering if we’re not in a “euphoria” stage that signals the beginning of the end of the bull market. Read: Investors are seized by optimism. Can the bull market last?

WATCH THIS SPACE #1- It looks like we are sidestepping an ecological disaster that could have wiped out Red Sea tourism. The United Nations has stepped up, having launched yesterday a salvage operation off the coast of Yemen to drain oil from the FSO Safer. The USD 140 mn operation aims to prevent a disaster that would have dwarfed the Exxon Valdez spill: The rapidly-deteriorating Safer contains about 4x the amount of oil.

The op to drain the oil could take 19 days — and avert what the UN thinks would have been a USD 20 bn cleanup. The Safer and its 1.1 mn barrels of oil have been stranded on the coast of Yemen — the civil war has prevented it from being maintained. ( UN | CNBC | Associated Press)

WATCH THIS SPACE #2- Countries around the world are stockpiling Indian rice, many in a panic, after the world’s largest rice exporter banned the international sale of non-basmati rice on the back of concerns about supply. Canada’s CBC has more.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDARS- The Enterprise Finance Forum is taking place on 18-19 September at the St. Regis Hotel in Cairo. This flagship forum is the latest in our must-attend series of invitation-only, C-suite-level gatherings that allow senior members of our community to openly and frankly discuss critical issues in key sectors of the economy.

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Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: New changes aim to make yacht tourism a bigger source of foreign exchange.

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