We just got a first look at how the economy performed last year: The Egyptian economy grew at a 4.2% clip in FY 2022-23, according to preliminary figures revealed by Finance Minister Mohamed Maait last week. This is down from 6.6% growth the year before.

Where next? Economic output will remain flat during the current fiscal year, according to a Reuters poll of economists which projects 4.2% growth in FY 2023-24. The figure is a 0.3 percentage point downward revision from the last Reuters poll i n April, in which economists penciled 4.5% GDP growth in FY 2023-24, but is slightly higher than the 4.1% growth the government forecasted in its economic and social development plan for the fiscal year.

Looking ahead: The poll sees growth picking up steam to reach 4.8% in FY 2024-25.

More predictions from the poll:

  • EGP to fall further: The EGP will weaken to 36.95 / USD 1 by the end of 2024, and settle at EGP 38.90 / USD 1 in 2025. Participants in the poll had previously projected a 35.00 rate by the end of 2024 and 35.07 by the end of 2025.
  • A slower slowdown for inflation: Headline inflation will average at 22.0% in FY 2023-24, before cooling further to 13% next fiscal year. The previous poll in April had inflation averaging 20.9% this year and 9.3% in FY 2024-25.
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