Remittances to Egypt will rebound in 2023 as the number of Egyptians working abroad picks up following the covid-19 pandemic, according to the World Bank (pdf). The Bank expects remittance flows to increase by 3.1% in 2023 followed by weaker 1.4% growth the year after. This would put annual remittances at almost USD 29.2 bn this year, according to our math.

The FX crunch meant 2022 wasn’t a great year for remittances: Remittances from Egyptians abroad fell 10% to USD 28.3 bn last year as people sold FX on the black market or held onto it on expectations for a further EGP devaluation, according to the World Bank. Egyptian authorities have devalued the currency three times over the past year, causing it to lose almost half of its value against the USD. The lender had in December estimated that 2022 inflows would come in at USD 32.3 bn, which would have marked a 2.5% increase on the year before.

It wasn’t just Egypt: Remittances to the MENA region fell almost 4% to USD 64 bn in 2022, driven primarily by lower flows to Algeria and Jordan as well as here. It is projected that remittances for the overall region will stage a moderate rebound over the next two years, rising 1.7% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024.

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