More price hikes ahead thanks to crisis in Sudan: The ongoing war in Sudan could place further pressure on the Egyptian economy, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which expects the resulting trade disruption to hit exports and fuel further inflation. “The Sudan conflict has created a supply shortage in Egypt, causing food prices to soar,” it wrote in a short report (pdf) on Wednesday, noting the particular impact on domestic beef prices.

Remember: Food price inflation in Egypt has hit record highs this year as the impact of three large devaluations and higher fuel prices cause inflation to accelerate throughout the economy. A kilo of beef has roughly doubled from a year ago, jumping from EGP 150-200 to EGP 350-400, according to the report.

Sudan is a major exporter of livestock and agricultural products: Egypt imported some 110k live animals and 10k tons of beef from Sudan last year. The war has forced Egypt to look for other suppliers in Chad and Somalia to maintain supplies, the USDA said. The government turned to Chad for beef supplies earlier this year as it looked to increase imports and get prices under control.

It’s also one of our biggest African export markets: The war is likely to deal a blow to Egypt’s exports to Sudan, which has been one of the country’s biggest export markets on the continent. Trade and Industry Ministry figures show that Sudan was the second-largest buyer of Egyptian goods in Africa during 1Q 2023. In 2022, Egypt exported USD 929 mn of goods to Sudan, according to the USDA.

And a key trade hub: Egyptian exports to other African countries could be disrupted by the conflict due to Sudan’s position as a major trans-shipment point, the USDA notes.

The US spots an opening: “Opportunities for US chicken leg quarters continue to grow, as the [Egyptian government] and Egyptian military seek more affordable sources of protein for their citizens in the face of a depreciating currency and related economic hardship,” the report said.

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