Good morning, friends, and welcome to another very busy Sunday to kick off budget week in the House of Representatives. We hope you enjoyed your long weekend — it’s the last such break for our Egypt-based readers until we observe the anniversary of the 30 June Revolution.

THE BIG STORY here at home: The IMF says Egypt is committed to a flexible exchange rate: The government is “serious about having a flexible exchange rate,” the IMF’s director for the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, Jihad Azour, told Asharq Business in an interview last week.

But no news on the first review: “There is strong collaboration between the Fund’s team and Egyptian authorities,” Azour said, adding that the government has been “preparing” for the review since the IMF / World Bank Spring Meetings last month.

Why this matters: Our USD 3 bn loan program from the IMF is contingent on implementing reforms that include the move to a “fully flexible” EGP-USD exchange rate and widening private participation in the economy. Bloomberg reported last month that the Fund wanted to see us make more progress on those reforms before it goes ahead with the first review of the package, which had been expected in mid-March. The IMF’s executive board should discuss the first review by June, but in the case of a longer delay the lender may combine it with the next one, which is scheduled for September, according to Asharq.

A vote of confidence following a string of bad reports: Azour’s comments to Asharq come following a series of negative credit reports from the big three rating agencies, which are voicing increasing concern about the speed at which authorities are moving forward with their privatization agenda and the lack of new FX inflows. Fitch is the latest to downgrade us, as we note in this morning’s news well, below.

The first IMF review is just “a matter of time,” Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told El Hekaya last night (watch, runtime: 31:44). “We were aiming to schedule the review for March but we were hit with a number of issues, including that it was the beginning of Ramadan … we are hoping to have the first review before June,” he said.

DATA POINT- FX reserves continue to creep up: Our net foreign reserves inched up to USD 34.55 bn in April from USD 34.45 bn in March, according to central bank figures out last week. Reserves have been on a gentle upward slope the past seven months, after falling 20% last year on the back of the war on Ukraine and tougher financial conditions.

WATCH THIS SPACE- Gold and aluminum coming to the EMX this year? The EGX is looking into adding gold and aluminum to the list of commodities trading on the Egyptian Mercantile Exchange (EMX) during the second half of the year, Al Borsa reports, citing unnamed government sources.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

It’s budget week in the House: Finance Minister Mohamed Maait and Planning Minister Hala El Said will deliver statements in the House for the draft FY 2023-2024 budget when MPs reconvene on Tuesday. This will kickstart a month of discussions at the House Budget Committee. The budget will then be up for debate and a vote by the House in a plenary session.

What we know so far: The Madbouly government plans to up spending on subsidies and socialprotection programs to offset the impact of soaring inflation on households, and has released its fiscal targets for the coming year. The Finance Ministry has penciled in oil prices of USD 90 per barrel for FY 2023-2024, up from USD 80 per barrel this fiscal year, House Budget Committee chairman Fakhry El Feky was quoted as telling Asharq Business yesterday. Cabinet approved the draft budget last month.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Arab League to vote on readmitting Syria: Arab foreign ministers are meeting in Cairo today to discuss ties with Syria, with an anonymous diplomat telling CNN that the organization will vote on bringing Damascus back into the fold. This follows several rounds of talks between Arab diplomats last week aimed at bringing the country back into the league.

The pro-Syrians have the votes: That’s according to Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, who told the US news outlet that he believes the league will vote to readmit Syria today. Should the vote go through, President Bashar Al Assad is likely to be invited to chair the next meeting on 19 May, the anonymous official said.

AND- The Senate reconvenes today after a three-week break: The industrial, economic affairs, tourism and energy and environment committees are among those holding sessions today.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

It’s Investment and Sustainable Finance Day:The CFA Society is hosting its Investment and Sustainable Finance Day tomorrow, featuring a variety of speakers from the International Finance Corporation, CI Capital, and the Financial Regulatory Authority’s Mohamed Farid.

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

National Dialogue sessions to start next week: The first session of the National Dialogue will take place on Sunday, 14 May, member of the board of trustees, Talaat Abdel Qawi, said in a televised interview yesterday (watch, runtime: 6:48). Sessions will be held every Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, he said.

The National Dialogue was inaugurated on Wednesday: We have the story in this morning’s news well, below.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

The Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum, our latest industry-specific conference, is taking place on Monday, 15 May at the Four Seasons Cairo Nile Plaza The Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum will give insiders and newcomers alike the chance to talk about how to develop an export-centered business and how their companies can help Egypt build an export-led economy that makes us a magnet for foreign direct investment (FDI).

Expect the gathering to be heavy on lessons learned in Egypt and other global growth markets — and to feature lots of success stories.You can learn more on our conference website here.

Some of the biggest names in business and finance are on board — are you? The Enterprise Exports and FDI Forum is taking place with the generous support of our friends, including:

Banking partners: Banque Misr | Al Baraka Bank | Emirates NBD | HSBC

Lead partners: DB Schenker | DP World | East Port Said Development | IDG | IFC | Madinat Masr

Event partners: Beyti | Concrete | GlobalCorp | Grant Thornton | Hassan Allam Utilities | Royal Ceramica

WANT TO BECOME A COMMERCIAL PARTNER? Ping a note to Moustafa, our head of commercial, here.

HAVEN’T REQUESTED AN INVITE YET?We have a limited number of seats available. If you’re a C-suite exec, business owner, DFI staff, export executive, investor or banker, please fill out the form here to signal your interest, letting us know your name, title and where you work.

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