Residents are fleeing Khartoum en masse as fighting in the Sudanese capital continues for the fifth consecutive day. A 24-hour ceasefire declared last night crumbled just hours after it began. The internationally brokered truce was intended to open access to humanitarian aid and to give civilians caught in the crossfire safe passage out of areas where fighting has centered. At least 270 people have been killed in the clashes so far which pit the regular Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

What’s behind the fighting? A breakdown in talks between the SAF and the RSF on the future of Dagalo’s forces. Dagalo, Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, and several political parties inked an initial framework agreement — backed by international parties — late last year that was supposed to see all sides work together to ease tensions and reestablish a civilian-led government. This should have paved the way for the next stage in talks, which would see the integration of the RSF into the Sudanese army. Disagreements over the timeline of this integration is believed to have been the catalyst for the divisions between the two, according to Alarabiya.

Then there’s the question of who the RSF would take their orders from in the interim. SAF negotiators insisted that the RSF be under the direct control of army chief Burhan while RSF negotiators requested that they be placed under the command of the head of the upcoming civilian government.

Background: Tensions between the SAF and the RSF have always been bubbling close to the surface following the 2021 coup that ousted former Prime Minister Hamdok’s civilian-led government. The pair stopped seeing eye-to-eye after domestic and international pressures left the move increasingly isolated. In the past few months, Dagalo has distanced himself from the coup which he admitted was a “mistake”and has supported an international drive to take the SAF out of politics and reestablish credible civilian rule.

But there were earlier signs of tension: The ousted Al-Bashir regime formed the RSF out of government-aligned tribal fighters from Darfur in 2013 and their ranks soon got preferential treatment in terms of incentives. Nevertheless, past differences have always been resolved behind closed doors.

The blame game over who shot first: Although it is not immediately clear how the first engagements occurred, Dagalo said that his soldiers were forced to defend themselves after SAF troops attempted to encircle them (watch, runtime: 1:47), while SAF said last Thursday that the RSF had begun to mobilize its troops to Khartoum, in contravention of the law (watch, runtime: 2:29). SAF maintained that it did not start the fighting, and Burhan said RSF forces attacked his home.

Fighting quickly spread across Sudan but Khartoum has taken the brunt: Battles for control of the SAF General Command HQ, Khartoum International Airport, and the national radio and television headquarters devolved into a push and shove with no clear winner. All flights into and outside of Sudan have been suspended and flight tracking website Flightradar24 continues to show empty skies over the country. Several civilian and military aircraft were destroyed at Khartoum International Airport, according to satellite images shown by the BBC. Hospitals are also overwhelmed with people injured from the fighting and are running out of crucial supplies. Khartoum residents are also having trouble accessing basic necessities such as food and water.

Reactions from the rest of the world: International leaders were frustrated by the brief tenure of the ceasefire, with UN Secretary General António Guterres and UN Relief Chief Martin Griffiths among those condemning the fighting. On the sidelines of a G7 summit in Japan, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken denounced the “reckless” targeting of an American diplomatic convoy and underlined the necessity for an immediate ceasefire and a return to talks aimed at establishing a civilian government.

…And Egypt: Our Foreign Ministry called for an immediate stop to hostilities, in an official statement. The statement also called for both sides to enter into dialogue. Egyptian soldiers in the northern Sudanese town of Merowe were also caught up in the fighting. The RSF has pledged to cooperate with Egypt on their safe return, saying earlier today that the soldiers have been moved to Khartoum and will be handed over to Egypt. El Sisi stressed in a televised statement (watch, runtime: 4:40) that the soldiers were there as a part of a joint training mission with their Sudanese counterparts and not to bolster the positions of either side.

Why should we care? Egypt and Sudan have a long history of intertwined political and economic relationships and Sudan has long been a political ally for Cairo and is seen by Egyptian policymakers as providing “strategic depth” for Egypt in Africa. This relationship has become increasingly important in recent years as talks with Ethiopia over the timeline for filling the GERD reservoir have stalled.

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