Good morning, wonderful people, and a very happy THURSDAY. The newsflow is being slightly kinder to us this morning — and it’s much appreciated at the end of a long, busy week.

The first of the next run of holidays is confirmed: Both public and private sector workers will take Monday, 17 April off in observance of Sham El Nessim, the cabinet said yesterday. You can expect the central bank and EGX to follow suit with announcements soon.

There’s more where that came from:

  • Coptic Easter falls on Sunday, 16 April. It’s typically a bank holiday, but not a national holiday (though it should be.)
  • Eid El Fitr should land on or around Friday, 21 April (it’s still not clear what days will be official holidays);
  • Tuesday, 25 April, is Sinai Liberation Day, for which we’ll likely have a day off on Thursday, 27 April.

M&A is the theme of THE BIG STORIES here at home this morning: The bidding war for state-owned paint maker Pachin continues after Eagle Chemicals upped its bid once again, and Amman-based hygiene products manufacturer Fine has acquired Alexandrian health and beauty company Easy.

MORE CDs-

Banque du Caire matches Big Two state banks’ new high-yield CDs: State-owned Banque du Caire followed the NBE and Banque Misr to offer a fixed, three-year certificate of deposit at a 19% rate, and a three-year declining-rate certificate that starts at 22% before falling to 18% in the second year and 16% in the third year, according to its website. Both are paid out monthly, while the fixed certificate also has quarterly and annual payout options at lower rates. The minimum deposit is EGP 10k.

Al Baraka Bank Egypt launched a three-year CD at a variable interest rate of at least 19%, disbursed monthly. The minimum deposit is EGP 1k. Al Baraka joins private-sector lenders CIB and aiBank following the NBE and Banque Misr’s lead and bringing new CDs to the market after the central bank raised interest rates by 200 basis points last week.

AND- Charitable CDs: Nasser Social Bank partnered with the state’s Decent Life social support initiative to issue three-year, 15% certificates, according to statements by the Social Solidarity Ministry and the Decent Life initiative. Half of the proceeds from the CDs go to investors, while the other half go to support the initiative. The minimum buy-in is EGP 500 and the CDs are open to both individual and institutional investors.

DATA POINT #1- Egypt’s net foreign reserves inched up to USD 34.45 bn in MarchfromUSD 34.35 bn in February, according to central bank data. Reserves have been on a gentle upward slope the past seven months and are now up by more than USD 1.3 bn since the end of August. Reserves fell 20%last year on the back of the war on Ukraine and tougher financial conditions.

DATA POINT #2- Another month of record revenues for the Suez Canal: Suez Canal revenues jumped 39% y-o-y in March to an all-time monthly high of USD 832.2 mn, Al Mal reports, citing official data. Some 2.2k vessels transited the canal last month, up nearly 21% y-o-y. March also saw the canal set a new daily record for transiting vessels, with 107 vessels crossing on 13 March.

DATA POINT #3- The country has 2.3 months’ worth of wheat in strategic reserves, Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy said yesterday. We have strategic reserves of rice sufficient for 3.5 months, sugar for 4 months, and vegetable oils for 4.3 months.

The wheat harvest season begins this month: The government is hoping to buy 4 mn tons of wheat this harvest season, slightly less than the 4.2 mn tons it procured last year.

A jump in the price of high-end smokes: Philip Morris brands Marlboro and L&M will cost EGP 4.00-6.00 more per pack starting today, according to a document published in the local press. Packs of Marlboro will now sell for EGP 54.00, while L&M will cost EGP 39.00. The hikes come shortly after state-owned Eastern Companyraised the prices of most of its cigarettes by EGP 1.00-3.00.

Zamalek is now coachless: Zamalek FC has let go of its entire coaching staff and benched four players for the remainder of the season in response to latest defeat, Zamalek board member Gamal Abdel Hamid said (watch, runtime: 4:26). The football club lost 3-2 against Al Masry on Tuesday. The new coaching team should be unveiled soon, Abdel Hamid said. The news received attention from Reuters.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The World Bank is releasing its latest MENA Economic Update this afternoon: Ominously titled “Altered Destinies,” the multilateral lender’s latest regional growth report looks “in depth at how even temporary increases in the price of food can have lasting impacts across generations in terms of education, health and future income prospects.” The World Bank downgraded its economic growth forecast for Egypt in the current fiscal year by 0.2 percentage points to 4.8% in its most recent update in October. The bank is presenting the April update in a livestreamed event at 3pm CLT.

** SO, WHEN DO WE EAT? We’ll be breaking our fasts at 6:16pm CLT today. You have until 4:09am tomorrow morning to hydrate and grab a bite to eat.

NEXT WEEK-

Legislators are back in session: The Senate reconvenes on Sunday, 9 April, and the House is back in session on Tuesday, 11 April.

We’ll find out how inflation is faring: The CBE and Capmas will be out with March inflation data on Monday, 10 April. Headline inflation hit a five-and-a-half-year high of 31.9% in February, while food prices and core inflation both rose at their fastest rates ever.

The IMF and the World Bank kick off their annual Spring Meetingson Monday. Policymakers, private sector execs, civil society reps, and academics will converge on the lenders’ headquarters in Washington DC to discuss the state of the global economy. Expect central banks’ struggle to balance bringing down inflation and protecting growth to dominate the agenda, amid uncertainty in the global financial markets triggered by the US banking crisis. The meetings run until Sunday, 16 April.

The IMF will also on Monday release chapters two and threeof its April World Economic Outlook, which tackle rising interest rates and public debt.

MARKET WATCH-

Saudi Aramco raises prices for crude to Asia: Saudi state-owned Aramco is raising the price of all its oil to Asia following OPEC’s shock production cut earlier this week. Aramco hiked the price of its key Arab Light crude to Asia by USD 0.30 to hit USD 2.80 a barrel starting next month, Bloombergreports.

REMEMBER- The surprise move by the Saudi-led oil cartel to cut more than 1 mn barrels per day from the market led Brent crude prices to jump their most in a year to trade at around USD 85 a barrel. Some analysts are now predicting Brent could pass the USD 100 mark by the summer on the back of the OPEC cuts.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Trump continues to lead the conversation in the foreign press: US President Donald Trump’s legal battle is still getting wide play in the international press after he pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts in a hush money case. (Reuters | NPR | CNN | BBC | The Guardian | New York Times)

CLOSER TO HOME-

Israeli forces stormed the Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem for a second time late on Wednesday even after a first raid earlier in the day drew condemnation from Arab states and appeals from the US to de-escalate tensions, CNN and the Guardian report. Egypt was among countries in the region to condemn the first raid, which saw more than 350 Palestinians arrested and at least 12 injured. The Arab League also released a statement condemning the first raid following an emergency meeting yesterday afternoon.

THE REALIGNMENT-

#1- Saudi + Iranian FMs will today hold their first formal meeting in seven years:Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud will meet with this Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in Beijing today as the two sides look to build on last month’s China-brokered pact and restore diplomatic relations, Reutersreports. According to an Iranian official, the diplomats will discuss appointing ambassadors and reopening embassies, which have been shuttered since 2016 when the two countries severed ties.

Why this matters: Saudi Arabia and Iran last month pledged to reopen embassies and restart security cooperation in a shock agreement that could ease years of tensions between the fierce regional rivals. The pact also saw the emergence of China as a serious power broker in the region, achieving a major diplomatic success that left the US on the sidelines.

#2- The final piece of the puzzle in Syria: The Russian, Turkish, Syrian, and Iranian deputy ministers held talks this week in efforts to mend ties between Damascus and Ankara and finally bring the 12-year war in Syria to an end, Bloombergreports. The officials discussed preparations for a high-level meeting between their foreign ministers, according to a statement from the Russian foreign ministry.

Why this matters: Efforts among Arab nations to end Syria’s international isolation have accelerated in recent weeks, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE all making diplomatic advances amid a push to bring the country back into the Arab League and normalize relations.

Israel-Iran tensions are rising: The Israeli military has intensified airstrikes on Iran-linked targets in Syria, with near-daily bombings over the past week, and Iran yesterday said it downed a drone near a military site in the center of the country. Tehran blamed Israel for a drone attack earlier this year that hit military targets. Israel similarly accused Iran of sending a drone into Israeli airspace on Monday.

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Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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