Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to the first full workweek of Ramadan. We hope the holy month is treating you well.

It’s interest rate week: It’s a big week for the folks over at the Central Bank of Egypt, who will meet on Thursday to decide on how to respond to soaring inflation rates. Most of the analysts and economists we spoke to last week see the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) hiking interest rates by at least 200 bps in a bid to curb accelerating prices and improve foreign-currency liquidity, with some penciling-in an even larger 300-bps increase. After raising rates by 800 bps last year, the MPC at its last meeting in February opted to leave them unchanged, though last month’s red-hot inflation data renders a continuation of the ‘wait and see’ approach unlikely.

^^ We have the full results of our customary interest rate poll in this morning’s news well, below.

The IMF is yet to set a date for the first review of Egypt’s USD 3 bn loan program:“Preparations for the first review have started and dates for the first review mission will be announced when they have been agreed with the authorities,” IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack said in a press briefing on Thursday.

IMF officials should have been here by now: The IMF had scheduled its first review of the program for 15 March in a staff report published in January. Kozack didn’t elaborate on the reasons for the delay. The IMF will conduct eight reviews over the duration of the 46-month program, which will end in June 2026. The second review is due to take place on 15 September.

WATCH THIS SPACE- Private-sector minimum wage talks to start soon: The National Council for Wages will meet during Ramadan to discuss raising the private-sector minimum wage, a source at the council told Al Borsa. Monthly wages for private sector employees should be no less than EGP 3.5k a month, the source said — that’s a 30% hike the current gross minimum monthly salary of EGP 2.7k.

Expect pushback: Some in the private sector have historically been reluctant to agree to higher minimum wages (though as we keep saying, if you can’t afford to pay your staff a living wage you probably shouldn’t be in business). Public-sector workers and civil servants will receive wage hikes and a higher minimum wage from 1 April.

EGP WATCH-

Fitch Solutions sees the EGP falling to 33.00 against the USD in 1H 2023 thanks to the ongoing FX shortage, according to its latest risk report on Egypt. While the country has secured external financing from the IMF and Gulf countries to cover its needs, “a burgeoning due diligence process will prevent the USD 20 bn of investments pledged by the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to be channeled into Egypt’s privatization programme in the short term,” the report reads .

The silver lining: Fitch is expecting the EGP to rebound to 30 against the USD by the end of 2023 as the privatization program picks up pace and portfolio investors stage a partial return to the market, bringing in more hard currency.

REMEMBER- The official EGP-USD rate hasn’t moved since 12 March, remaining priced at 30.96.

ALSO- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has relaunched its website. Read more about the new website and its features here.

AFCON QUALIFIERS GROUP STAGE– Egypt secured a comfortable2-0 home victoryagainst Malawi on Friday after two first-half goals from Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush kept the Pharaohs at the top of Group D following the third round of the Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon) qualifiers. Egypt’s away game on Malawian turf is scheduled for this Tuesday, 28 March, at 3pm.

PSA- We’re in for another week of changeable weather, with the mercury on a rollercoaster and frequently foggy skies. The Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA) is forecasting the daytime high to hit 22°C and a nighttime low of 13°C today, with foggy skies across Greater Cairo. Later in the week we will see highs of 26°C as the weather continues to warm up as we head deeper into spring.

SO, WHEN DO WE EAT? We’ll be breaking our fasts tonight at 6:10pm and Fajr prayers are at 4:24am tomorrow.

HAPPENING TODAY-

EU Vice-President Margaritis Schinas is in Egypt from 26 to 28 March to discuss skills, education and migration, the EU said yesterday. Schinas will meet cabinet ministers, including Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Education Minister Reda Hegazy, and Manpower Minister Hassan Shehata.

The Senate is back in session after a three-week break. Here’s what’s on the agenda:

  • The Economic and Financial Affairs Committee will discuss the government’s efforts to stop soaring inflation and prices;
  • The Agriculture Committee will review the government’s strategy to support the fertilizer industry;
  • The Energy and Environment Committee will look into the progress of implementing COP27’s climate recommendations;
  • The Education Committee will look into the National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority’s efforts to fight cybercrime.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

We can expect to get our first proper look at the state’s spending plans for the coming fiscal year when the Finance Ministry delivers the draft FY 2023-2024 budget to the House of Representatives.

Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn will visit Cairo this Wednesday and Thursday for talks, the Cambodian foreign ministry said Friday. Sokhonn will visit Morocco on Monday and Tuesday before arriving in Egypt.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Russia will soon place its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, President Vladimir Putin said yesterday, according to Russian news agency Tass. Training and infrastructure for the nukes will be in place by 1 July, he said. (AP | Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal)

FROM THE REGION-

The GERD is almost complete: Ethiopian authorities said that 90% of construction work on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is now complete, 12 years to the day since beginning work on the mega dam, Ethiopian state-affiliated news agency Fana reports.

Syria and Saudi Arabia have agreed to restore diplomatic ties and reopen embassies after more than a decade of hostilities, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

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