Good morning, everyone. Abu Dhabi’s L’imad is tightening its grip on the emirate’s ports and logistics empire, with subsidiary ADQ offering a 23% premium to buy out the stake it doesn’t already own.
PLUS- We take a look at how 2Q has fared as earnings season wraps: Abu Dhabi’s megacaps did the heavy lifting for the UAE’s listed companies in 1H, with just 20 firms generating 73.3% of all market earnings.
Elsewhere, Fitch’s BMI now sees the MENA region’s economy contracting 3.3% this year, as Hormuz disruption persists, though the UAE is expected to fare better than most.
We’re also tracking the latest from Washington and Tehran, as the 60-day ceasefire expires with Trump confirming that he will not seek an extension. Trump’s latest threat? To bomb Oman if it interferes with Washington’s efforts to reopen Hormuz.
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BMI sees turbulence ahead
Fitch’s BMI now sees the MENA economy contracting 3.3% this year, downgrading its earlier forecast of 0.9% growth, Arab News reports. The continued closure of Hormuz could stall the recovery in oil production and weigh on trade, investment, and service activities, BMI said.
UAE likely to fare better than most in BMI’s view: The UAE is expected to see growth stagnate at around 0.3%, making it one of only two Gulf countries expected to see GDP expand, alongside Oman. It’s still a meaningful downgrade from an earlier forecast of 1.4% growth but is more optimistic than others. S&P had forecast a contraction of 2.7% for the UAE’s real GDP this year, with the picture particularly bleak for Abu Dhabi, given that hydrocarbons account for 44.4% of its economy and its non-oil activity was also hit. Goldman Sachs had warned of a 5% contraction should the conflict last past April, but the IMF’s April forecast was the brightest of them all, expecting 3.1% growth for the year.
Adnoc keeps selling through the squeeze
Adnoc sold at least 14 mn barrels of spot crude to Asian refiners at premiums in its latest tender, taking sales across eight tenders since June to more than 108 mn barrels. The October-November cargoes included Das, Upper Zakum, and Umm Lulu crude, with some barrels commanding hefty premiums — Cosmo Oil paid around USD 10.5 / bbl over Dubai for Das, Formosa around USD 10 for Upper Zakum, and Chevron paid USD 7.5 for Umm Lulu, Reuters reports. GS Caltex also bought 2 mn barrels of Das for ship-to-ship transfer off Fujairah at roughly a USD 6 premium.
REMEMBER- The tender program has been running since June, offering Upper Zakum, Umm Lulu, and Das crude in cargoes of up to 2 mn barrels, with multiple delivery options — from Fujairah storage outside Hormuz, Zirku and Das islands inside the Gulf, and ship-to-ship transfers between Fujairah, Sohar, and around Malaysia.
Adnoc has been building out the shuttle capacity to match. Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions pushed it to charter around 15 crude carriers, while Adnoc L&S moved to buy another five VLCCs as tanker availability tightened.
The premiums come as Hormuz goes quiet. Just five commodity vessels crossed the strait on Saturday and Sunday, versus 31 over the previous weekend. The slowdown follows direct attacks on Adnoc's own fleet — the UAE said Iran struck a third Adnoc-operated vessel transiting the strait on Friday, after blaming Tehran for two separate attacks on Adnoc tankers the previous evening. Brent and WTI both gained more than 5% last week on the back of those attacks and a strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery.
UAE ranks fourth globally for expats despite turmoil
The UAE continues to be one of the world’s most attractive destinations for expats, ranking fourth globally behind Panama, Mexico, and Thailand, according to InterNations’ 2026 Expat survey. The Emirates was the highest-ranked country in the Middle East, ahead of established expat hubs including Spain, Singapore, and Portugal.
The UAE ranked first out of 31 destinations in the career prospects and state of the economy subcategories. It also topped the leaderboard for the Expat Essentials Index, which measures the ease of securing a visa and living there without speaking the local language.
DIEZ fills up
96% — That was the occupancy rate at the Dubai Integrated Economic Zones (DIEZ) Authority’s three zones in 1H 2026, with the number of companies operating across Dubai Airport Freezone, Dubai Silicon Oasis, and Dubai CommerCity up 13% y-o-y, according to a Dubai Media Office statement. Their combined workforce rose 24% y-o-y.
REMEMBER- More space is coming: DIEZ said earlier this year that it plans to launch two Dubai Silicon Oasis expansion projects — District IO, backed by AED 11 bn, and Block 14, whose first phase is backed by AED 1.8 bn and scheduled for completion in 2029, alongside the planned opening of the Dubai Metro Blue Line.
Watch this space: The growth comes after DIEZ moved earlier this year to cushion freezone firms during the regional conflict, including stabilizing renewal rents, allowing monthly rent payments, waiving some administrative fees, and deferring others for three months. With occupancy already near full, the test now is whether DIEZ can bring new capacity online fast enough to keep company growth from running into space constraints — especially as AI and startup activity accelerate in Dubai Silicon Oasis.
PSA
WEATHER- The mercury will hit 44°C in Dubai and 45°C in Abu Dhabi, with a low of 34°C in both emirates, according to our favorite weather app.
The big story abroad
US President Donald Trump has ruled out extending the 60-day agreement between the US and Iran, which expired yesterday. Trump warned that Washington could strike Oman — a key mediator — if it interferes with Washington’s plans to resume traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also said that back-channel discussions with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are underway.
Tehran says it is ready to escalate: In light of the stalled talks, Iran is shifting to a “fully offensive” military posture, a senior Iranian official said. The official indicated a willingness to launch a military attack to suspend the naval blockade imposed by US forces.
In the AI world: Nvidia pledged USD 100 bn in backing for a massive OpenAI data center in Ohio, alongside a USD 1.5 bn investment in SB Energy, a SoftBank-led energy company focused on data center development. The site will lease as much as 8 GW of AI computing power and is set to debut in 2032.
More trouble is apparently brewing in the private credit world. An FT report says the largest funds are seeing more writedowns, signaling stress levels last seen almost 10 years ago. The level of loans with non-accrual status by the 20 largest funds rose to a median of 2.8% in 2Q, up from 2% in March. This echoes last week’s report by Fitch Ratings, which found private credit defaults hitting a new record last month.
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