Gulf capital is still deploying at pace + luxury demand takes a hit

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Operations are back on at Dana Gas’ Khor Mor + CMA issues virtual assets framework

Good morning, friends. The good news is: the ceasefire is continuing to hold, though ongoing drone attacks on Bahrain are sparking concerns that some proxies in the war are not giving up.

On the Strait of Hormuz front, the US military said it will begin blocking all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports as of yesterday, as US forces also began setting conditions for mine clearance in Hormuz over the weekend. US warships are reportedly already moving through the waterway as part of their operation and the military says it’s working to secure safe passage for commercial shipping.

We’re still seeing two contradictory narratives across business news, depending on where you’re sitting: business remains as usual where investments and Gulf sovereign wealth funds are involved, according to newly published GlobalSWF data, while other sectors are reeling from the ongoing disruptions to shipping and tourism. Today, we look at the luxury sector. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- It’s another pleasant, mostly cloudy day. Look for a high of 30°C and a low of 22-23°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, according to our favorite weather app.

From the Dept. of the Resumption of Operations

DISRUPTION WATCH — Sharjah’s Dana Gas has resumed operations at Iraq’s Khor Mor field after weeks of intermittent output, according to a statement (pdf). The firm said it “carried out prudent operational procedures” in coordination with local authorities while prioritizing staff safety and asset protection. As we previously reported, Dana Gas suspended production at Iraq’s Khor Mor field at the start of March due to security concerns from the regional conflict.

Elsewhere, disruption lingers: As we covered last week, Iran has continued targeting industrial and infrastructure sites, with Borouge forced to suspend operations after debris triggered fires at its Al Ruwais plant. Strikes and falling debris also hit the Habshan gas facilities and Khor Fakkan Port as well as tech-linked buildings.

Watch this space

CRYPTO — CMA moves to set out rules for virtual assets: The Capital Market Authority has rolled out a new virtual assets framework that brings more crypto players under its purview, Wam reports. The move is a bid to bring trading, custody, advisory, and platform operations under a single “integrated regulatory regime” through a consolidated rulebook.

The framework expands regulated activities from three to eight, now covering dealing (as principal and agent), custody and arranging custody, investment advice, portfolio management, arranging transactions, and operating trading platforms.

Previously, regulated activities focused on the provision and operation of platforms for virtual assets as well as brokerage and custody services.

Also under the hood are dedicated modules spanning conduct, AML, and prudential requirements, alongside a trading systems framework covering both virtual asset platforms and tokenized securities, which aim to keep “pace with [...] the convergence of traditional and digital models.”

The move follows Dubai’s push to formalize the space: As we previously reported, Vara rolled out a framework governing exchange-traded derivatives linked to virtual assets, opening the door for licensed firms to offer more complex products and signalling a shift toward a more structured, end-to-end regulatory regime.

HEALTHCARE — Support measures land in Dubai’s healthcare freezone: The Dubai Healthcare City Authority is stepping in with a cashflow buffer for firms in the zone, rolling out support measures aimed at keeping operators steady as disruption ripples through key sectors, according to a Dubai Media Office statement.

The package zeroes in on costs: Under the new measures, reinstatement and late renewal fees are waived for licences renewed between 1 April and 30 June, with the option to pay renewal costs in installments through the end of September. In addition, firms can also defer or restructure leasing payments and have related penalties waived.

REMEMBER- Relief is stacking up: This is the latest in a widening wave of support across Dubai’s ecosystem, including:

Rent relief, payment deferrals, and lease freezes for SMEs in Dubai South;
Waived setup fees and AED 10 mn+ in SME incentives via Qashio;
A broader AED 1 bn package to cushion private sector pressure;
A CBUAE resilience package to support local lenders.

Data point

17% — this is the y-o-y increase in net income reported by ADX-listed companies in 2025, with total earnings climbing to over USD 54.5 bn (c. AED 200 bn), according to ADX data cited in a press release (pdf). Dividend payouts remained strong at close to AED 74 bn.

How 4Q stacked up: The final quarter saw a sharper climb, with net earnings hitting AED 47.9 bn in 4Q 2025, up 35.8% y-o-y, according to Kamco Invest’s latest Abu Dhabi Corporate Earnings report (p df).

Happening today

European Council President António Costa kicked off a Gulf tour today, with planned stops in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar through tomorrow, according to an official statement. Scheduled meetings include with President Mohamed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah, and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim in Doha.

It’s all about taming the Iran conflict: “Our priority and focus are on working with our Gulf partners to safeguard regional stability and protect our civilians and interests,” Costa said. Brussels will coordinate with the regional leaders on de-escalation, primarily via “negotiation and diplomacy.”

The big story abroad

Goldman Sachs has made headlines today after its financial results for 1Q beat expectations. The US investment bank’s bottomline rose 19% y-o-y to USD 5.6 bn — driven by strong dealmaking and record-setting equities revenues. That said, the firm's fixed income revenue dropped 10% to USD 4 bn, missing StreetAccount’s estimates set by a substantial USD 910 mn. The company attributed the slump to significantly lower returns in interest rate products, mortgages, and credit.

Also on Wall Street: Asset management giant BlackRock has upgraded its forecast for US equities, citing the limited broader impact of the conflict in Iran as key drivers for a positive market outlook. The firm raised its outlook from a notch to overweight from neutral, arguing that there is "tangible evidence of actions” that will lead to a resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. BlackRock singled out earnings in the tech sector as especially likely to shield stateside equities from fallout of the regional war.

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Market watch

Opec+’s crude output averaged 35.06 mn bbl / d in March — down 7.7 mn bbl / d m-o-m, or nearly 20% — with Iraq and Saudi Arabia seeing the largest declines as flows remain constrained, according to the group’s latest monthly oil report (pdf).

Q2 demand trimmed, but 2026 growth outlook holds steady: The group cut its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter by 500k bbl / d to an average of 105.07 mn bbl / d. The group left its 2026 demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.38 mn bbl /d.

That leaves the market reading two signals at once — demand expectations are easing on paper while actual supply tightness is being driven by logistics and geopolitics rather than deliberate cuts.

REMEMBER- Opec+ decided earlier this month to boost oil output by 206k bbl / d for May, with Saudi alone contributing 62k bbl / d. The hike may only take effect on paper, as key nations remain unable to raise production amid the US-Iran conflict.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Gulf capital hasn’t sat still

Gulf sovereign wealth funds are still deploying capital at pace, even as active conflict marred nearly a third of 1Q 2026. Funds including Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala, Saudi Arabia’s PIF, and the Qatar Investment Authority deployed almost USD 25 bn during the quarter, according to Global SWF data picked up by Semafor.

Deep pockets explain the paper trail: Gulf sovereign funds now control around USD 5 tn in assets — a figure expected to balloon to nearly USD 18 tn by 2050 — giving them the firepower to absorb shocks and keep capital flowing.

Gulf investors remain heavily tied to international markets, particularly the US, where depth in tech, infrastructure, and finance makes a rapid reallocation difficult. Recent agreements, including wagers on AI, media, and energy assets, suggest existing commitments are still being honored.

Case in point: Mubadala just last week closed its third Brazil fund, overshooting its initial target of USD 750 mn with USD 900 mn raised. It’s not just Mubadala — the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has also kept active, ramping up exposure to private credit in Europe and Asia.

What if the war drags on?

Overseas deployment is likely to slow down, with capital redirected toward government support, domestic industries, or strategic sectors like aviation and defense, effectively crowding out some global investments, Global SWF’s Diego López said.

We knew this, to an extent: Global SWF said last month that Abu Dhabi’s sovereign funds could scale back overseas investments or redirect capital toward domestic “resilience” priorities if disruption to Hormuz persists. Adia would likely rebalance into liquid markets, while Mubadala and L’Imad could refocus on supply chains, infrastructure, and economic stability.

However, Mubadala could also be well positioned to hunt for bargains, deploying capital opportunistically into distressed assets, López said. The state-backed power house has recently reached AED 1.4 tn in AUM, as it upped deployment across AI, healthcare, financial services, and private credit.

Luxury demand takes a hit

Sales at high-end brands in Dubai and Abu Dhabi dropped sharply in March as the Iran conflict hit what had been one of the industry’s fastest-growing markets, with declines of 30-50% y-o-y at luxury brands housed at the Mall of the Emirates, Reuters reports, citing a source familiar with the data. Even Abu Dhabi, which is typically more insulated and less tourism-reliant, saw sales at the Galleria mall fall by around 10% across the board.

Footfall tells the same story: Traffic at Mall of the Emirates fell around 15% in March, while the more tourist-heavy Dubai Mall saw visits drop by roughly half, according to two industry sources cited by Reuters.

The worst case scenario actually happened: The luxury retail sector is only one of many victims of the regional conflict. Around 60% of luxury spending in the UAE comes from tourists, many of whom are staying away due to the ongoing conflict, according to Morgan Stanley. Knock-on effects from rising oil prices and disrupted supply chains could dampen retail appetite even further. Back in March, Bernstein analyst Luca Solca had told CNBC that a 50% dip in sales for the month would constitute a worst-case scenario.

The trend hits what was a key growth engine for the Middle East. The region, which accounts for about 5% of global luxury consumption, delivered consistent double-digit growth in recent years, head of luxury research at Barclays Carole Madjo told Reuters. It was the fastest-growing market last year, expanding 6-8% while growth elsewhere stalled, according to Solca.

And for the UAE in particular: An AED 10 bn retail platform from Aldar and Mubadala announced earlier this year was the latest step from the Emirates to scale its destination retail offering. The plan came just as retail supply continued to tighten, with prime mall occupancy nearing 98% at Dubai.

Dubai had been doing most of the heavy lifting, driving roughly 80% of the UAE’s growth, with the country itself accounting for more than half of regional gains, according to Morgan Stanley data cited by CNBC.

Investors are already reacting: Shares of LVMH and Hermès are down roughly 16% and 20% this month, compared to a smaller drop in the S&P 500.

An international issue: The global luxury market had already been under pressure, with annual sales slipping 2% last year and more than EUR 100 bn wiped off the combined market value of major luxury firms, according to Bain & Company data.

The outlook: A recovery had been pencilled for 2026, but now the timeline could slip as investor confidence is at its lowest in years, UBS analysts warn, according to CNBC.

Not everyone is stepping back: Mytheresa is still planning to expand in the Middle East, arguing the region’s concentration of wealthy clients remains intact despite the disruption, the group’s CEO Francis Belin told the Financial Times. The region already accounts for 10% of Mytheresa’s revenues. Some retailers are also still active, bypassing physical outlets and selling to customers directly, or in other markets, he added.

SIB’s net income rises 19.4% y-o-y in 1Q 2026

Sharjah Islamic Bank kicks off earnings season: Sharjah Islamic Bank (SIB)’s net income climbed 19.4% y-o-y to AED 380.7 mn in 1Q 2026, driven by core business growth and stronger funding, according to the disclosure (pdf). A 21.1% increase in operating income to AED 644.1 mn — which offset a 17.9% rise in operating expenses — also supported bottom-line growth.

Income from Islamic financing and sukuk grew 14.4% y-o-y to nearly AED 1.1 bn during the quarter, while inflows from fees and commissions rose 9.3% to AED 179.7 mn.

Customer deposits climbed 10.3% to AED 61.4 bn over the same period, while total assets inched up 1% to AED 90.9 bn on the back of increased investments in Islamic financing, which rose 2.6% to AED 46.8 bn.

Finreon opens DIFC office, Etihad expands China routes, Sobha enters Abu Dhabi with AED 40 bn plan, and more Tasreef work completed

Quant’s money heads to the DIFC

Swiss asset manager Finreon opened a licensed representative office in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC), according to a press release. The move marks the firm’s entry into the Middle East as it targets the region’s growing institutional capital base across equities, fixed income, and alternatives. Finreon manages around USD 7 bn in assets.

ICYMI- DIFC is getting a policy tailwind: As we’ve previously reported, regulators are rolling out support measures for DIFC firms amid a wider wave of government interventions during the conflict. ICICI Prudential Asset Management, one of India’s largest asset managers, has also recently launched in DIFC, underscoring how global asset managers continue to anchor themselves in the hub, even as analysts told us that shaken investor confidence may take time to fully recover.

Dubai completes AED 250 mn Al Quoz sewage upgrade

Dubai has completed the first phase of a AED 500 mn sewage and stormwater infrastructure upgrade in Al Quoz Creative Zone, according to Dubai Media Office. The first phase included installing 15 km of sewerage pipelines and 14k km of stormwater drainage. The project will cover 1.6k hectares across Al Quoz Industrial areas.

ICYMI- Dubai has been working to improve its drainage system after the April 2024 floods exposed flaws in its infrastructure. The Tasreef program is the main pillar of the plan, with Dubai awarding AED 2.5 bn in contracts earlier this year for infrastructure developments on key roads. The USD 22 bn sewage tunnel project will cover 70 km of main tunnels and 140 km of supporting infrastructure.

Etihad deepens China expansion with five new routes

Etihad Airways is adding five new mainland China routes and 28 weekly flights, according to a press release. The new routes — Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen — will all run on Boeing 787-9 aircraft, alongside the airline’s existing daily Beijing service.

Momentum has been building over the past year: China Eastern Airlines launched four weekly direct flights between Abu Dhabi and Shanghai last year, the first time a Chinese carrier operated a direct route to the UAE capital. Etihad isn’t the only one eyeing the growing UAE-China corridor, with Emirates recently kicking off flights to Shenzhen as part of plans to increase its air traffic to China by 40% on the back of rising demand.

Dubai’s Sobha looks to Abu Dhabi

Dubai-based developer Sobha Realty is stepping into Abu Dhabi in a big way, lining up an AED 40 bn master-planned community, according to a press release. The waterfront Sobha City development in Al Bahia marks its first development beyond Dubai and Umm Al Quwain.

The details: Around 4k apartments and 3k villas will be built over the 38 mn sq ft development, alongside schools, healthcare and retail facilities, lifestyle amenities, and green spaces. Phase 1, covering roughly a third of units, is slated for handover in 4Q 2029.

ICYMI- Some Dubai developers have seen recent cracks in their credit stacks, and despite an issuance seeing its spread widen, Sobha has affirmed its liquidity position and strong backlog. Last year, the developer’s parent firm clocked AED 4 bn in net income, while Sobha itself had a AED 27 bn backlog at the end of 1H 2025.

The Medium Short

If there was ever a warning sign that private credit is in trouble, this is the strongest one yet: Wall Street just built a tool to short it.

What’s happening? S&P Global is teaming up with a syndicate of major banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, to launch the S&P CDX Financials Index, a new credit-default swap benchmark that is set to begin trading on Monday.

The index tracks 25 North American financial institutions, but the main attraction is that some 12% of the gauge is tied to private debt funds managed by sector heavyweights like Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, and Blackstone.

SOUND SMART- A credit-default swap (CDS) is a financial derivative that functions like an ins. policy against the risk of a borrower failing to pay off their debt. If you buy a CDS on an entity and that entity defaults, the seller of the swap pays you out. Historically, these derivatives have offered protection against the risk of a bond issuer, such as a corporation, a bank, or a sovereign government, failing to repay its creditors. The new index allows investors to purchase ins. against defaults by the index's members, meaning the value of the index will rise if market sentiment sours on these specific firms.

If this sounds familiar, it should: CDSs were the notorious financial instruments at the center of the 2008 financial crisis, used famously by traders to bet against the housing market in The Big Short. Back then, they were used to insure subprime mortgage-backed securities. When the housing market collapsed, institutions that had sold massive amounts of these swaps — like AIG — couldn't cover the resulting payouts, triggering systemic global contagion.

Why it matters: The private credit market has exploded into a massive industry, valued anywhere from USD 1.8 tn to over USD 3 tn. Betting against it has historically been a clunky and costly headache for traders. This new derivative gives hedge funds a rapid mechanism to profit from a potential sector downturn, while allowing major banks to hedge the massive loans they've made to private credit managers.

The timing is no accident: Private credit funds are facing their toughest stress test since the period following the 2008 financial crisis. Retail investors are increasingly trying to pull their capital amid a spate of defaults, alongside growing fears that the AI boom will upend the software companies these funds heavily rely on for returns.

Custom-made: Writing the CDS directly on business development companies (BDCs) — a specific type of private credit fund — offers a direct line to short the sector rather than relying on proxy wagers, S&P Dow Jones Indices' Nicholas Godec told Bloomberg.

Pundits are seeing attraction: “Private credit has grown fast and there's a lot of financial exposure arising in different ways so there is a real demand for this product,” Barclays head of credit strategy Dominique Toublan told the Wall Street Journal.

The glaring omission? Blue Owl Capital. The private credit giant was initially slated for inclusion but was quietly scrubbed from the final roster following feedback from market players. Market participants warned that Blue Owl has been under so much recent stress that keeping it in would make the broader index “too idiosyncratic” right out of the gate, Godec told Bloomberg.

What comes next: Expect immediate trading volume from the bears. Heavy hitters like Boaz Weinstein's Saba Capital actively advocated for the creation of this exact product.

A roster of major lenders — including Bank of America, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs — are slated to begin selling the derivatives to clients very soon.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Despite the US’ ongoing blockade on Iran, Asian markets are rallying across the board. Japan’s Nikkei is seeing gains of around 2.5% in early trading, while South Korea’s Kospi is up around 3.2%. Meanwhile, US futures are largely trading flat.

ADX	9,786	-0.5% (YTD: -2.1%)
DFM	5,668	-0.8% (YTD: -6.3%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,662	-1.2% (YTD: -4.6%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.6% o/n	4.0% 1 yr
TASI	11,427	+1.0% (YTD: +8.9%)
EGX30	49,079	+1.0% (YTD: +17.3%)
S&P 500	6,863	+0.7% (YTD: +0.6%)
FTSE 100	10,583	-0.2% (YTD: +6.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,905	-0.4% (YTD: +1.9%)
Brent crude	USD 99.36	+4.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.62	-0.0%
Gold	USD 4,771	+0.1%
BTC	USD 73,262	+2.8% (YTD: -16.4%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.66	0% (YTD: -0.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151	+0.3% (YTD: +6.2%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	19.12	-0.6% (YTD: +27.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.5% yesterday on turnover of AED 998.8 mn. The index is down 2.1% YTD.

In the green: Aram Group (+4.0%), Gulf Medical Projects Company (+3.6%), and NMDC Energy (+3).

In the red: Fujairah Building Industries (-4.9%), Invest Bank (-4.8%), and Ins. House (-4.6%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.8% on turnover of AED 732.9 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 1.2%.

CALENDAR

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Abu Dhabi Global Entrepreneurship Festival, Abu Dhabi Energy Center, Abu Dhabi

21 April (Tuesday): FAO Regional Conference for the Near East (NERC38), Al Ain.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, ICC Hall, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent;
Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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Today at a glance

THIS MORNING: Operations are back on at Dana Gas’ Khor Mor + CMA issues virtual assets framework