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Gov’t unveils AED 1 bn resilience fund to support localization for critical industries

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Lawyers told to come back to the office as ceasefire holds (for now) + Dubai Investments might push IPO to the fall

Good morning, lovely people. We’re nearly at the two-month mark of the war, and US-Iran negotiations have stalled. Talks scheduled for this weekend were delayed after both sides canceled their planned trips to Pakistan, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded by both the US and Iran.

Here at home, though, things look very nearly back to normal. Aside from the UAE flags flooding the streets and the few hotels and restaurants closing up shop, most schools and offices are now back and traffic is very close to pre-war levels.

Return-to-office pressure is starting to hit: International law firms are pushing staff to return to offices in Dubai and Abu Dhabi as the ceasefire holds, the Financial Times reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. US firms like Jones Day, Cleary Gottlieb, and — we’re told — Gibson Dunn have asked some employees to resume in-person work as soon as next week, with some firms offering to cover relocation costs.

Many offices have returned to pre-war operations. And with business largely back to usual, some clients now want advisers physically present, as remote attendance is no longer deemed sufficient, one partner said.

Companies also might not be able to afford people staying abroad too long: If workers stay abroad longer than they should, activities like negotiating or concluding contracts or conducting business operations from a foreign location could trigger a “permanent establishment” status, leading to corporate tax liabilities in the country where they’re located.

On the flip side: Some — in the UK, for example — also face tax liabilities if they stay long enough in their home countries to qualify as a resident, with experts telling The National that UK non-residents can become tax resident after 183 days, or potentially as few as 90-120 days, depending on family, housing, and work ties.


For those who run their own businesses (whether in manufacturing or running a startup in Sharjah), there’s welcome news from the government. Package after package of support are being unveiled by the week, with the latest being a AED 1 bn “resilience” fund targeting the localization of critical industries, including food. We have more on that in this morning’s Big Story Today.

Plus: A major acquisition of a stake in Bugatti is being backed by recently launched private equity firm BlueFive Capital.

WEATHER- It’s full-on summer: Look for a high of 37°C and low of 27°C in Dubai today, while in Abu Dhabi, temperatures will peak at 36°C, with a low of 26°C.


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From the Dept. of Contingency Planning

UAE moves to future-proof jet fuel flows: Dubai state energy group Enoc and UAE fuel retailer Emarat signed an agreement to strengthen business continuity for Jet A-1 aviation fuel supply, according to a Dubai Media Office statement. The plan sets procedures for pipeline transfers, truck loading, recovery protocols, and emergency response across the country’s key aviation hubs, alongside regular drills and equipment readiness checks.

The move lands as concerns around jet fuel security have climbed sharply. Conflict-driven disruption around the Strait of Hormuz briefly shut Dubai’s hub in March and sent jet fuel prices up 103%, while Iata warned (pdf) the crisis had exposed “deep vulnerabilities in jet fuel security.”

It’s not just jet fuel, it’s also ships: Abu Dhabi Ship Building — part of Edge group — said in a statement (pdf) some of its delivery timelines would likely be delayed due to the “prioritization of support to the UAE Armed Forces and the National Guard considering the prevailing regional circumstances,” as well as the possibility of prevailing supply chain disruptions.

Why this matters: Export orders make up 70% of the company’s annual revenue, with the UAE Navy accounting for the rest. The company has contracts with Kuwait, Angola, and Indonesia.

Deliveries may shift, but the business is not flashing red (yet): The company says commercial operations are still running without material disruption, while its business continuity plans remain in force.

… And new supply chain routes are in the works: Etihad Rail is continuing to test new supply chain routes as the war and wider regional conflict disrupt traditional Gulf shipping lanes. The company completed the country’s first rail transport of finished passenger vehicles for an automotive dealership, moving a shipment of Nissan cars from Fujairah’s east-coast ports to the dry port at Abu Dhabi’s Industrial City in partnership with Al Masaood Automobiles, according to an Abu Dhabi Media Office statement.

REMEMBER- Etihad Rail has been stepping up the load: The operator said it moved 459k tons of cargo at the start of March while adding five extra services to east-coast ports and Al Ghail Dry Port as inland corridors picked up the slack. Authorities also trialed an Etihad Rail passenger service from Al Ghuwaifat on the Saudi border to Al Faya in Abu Dhabi earlier in the conflict, effectively testing a western land bridge for people and cargo linked to Khalifa Port.

Other inbound routes are accelerating too: The UAE has been quietly widening alternative trade corridors as Hormuz risk reshaped freight flows. We’ve already seen NRTC lift imports by 50% across land, sea, and air routes and Lulu charter more cargo flights into the UAE and Kuwait, while east-coast ports, bonded trucking, and rail freight absorb diverted loads.

Watch this space

Dubai Investments might push DIP IPO to the fall: Dubai Investments could list the shares of its real estate unit, Dubai Investments Park (DIP), on the DFM in October, pushing its earlier target of February to the fall — in line with what analysts have told us about the regional IPO landscape. Dubai Investments CEO Khalid Bin Kalban told Zawya that shareholders will decide by May 15 on how to move ahead. The company had planned to list a 25% stake in DIP.

Forcing the market’s hand: Valuation remains stable around AED 10.8-11 bn, Bin Kalban said, arguing the asset’s local exposure has shielded it from regional volatility, with the group still looking to offload a roughly 24% stake, he told CNBC Arabia.

About DIP: DIP is one of Dubai’s largest mixed-use developments, spanning roughly 2.3k hectares and operating at around 90% occupancy.

IN CONTEXT- Real estate equities were among the most exposed to swings in sentiment and demand, making a DIP IPO in May risky. Both the ADX and the DFM saw their real estate indices shed roughly 27% in March, with some of the biggest names closing in the red. However, they have been recovering some of their losses since the ceasefire, with the DFM’s real estate index up 5.7% this month.

There are more potential IPOs on the table at Dubai Investments: Dubai Investments is keeping its multi-year listing queue intact, with four subsidiaries already flagged for potential IPOs. The pipeline includes district cooling firm Emicool and Al Zujaj Holding (Emirates Glass), which is eyeing a 2027 listing, assuming earnings hold up.

ADVISORS- Emirates NBD Capital, HSBC, Citigroup, Arqaam Capital, and EFG Hermes are in talks to advise on the potential IPO.


DIPLOMACY — UK-UAE ties get a wider mandate: The UK and the UAE formally agreed to a new cooperation framework spanning defense, trade and investment, AI, energy transition, judicial cooperation, and illicit finance, according to a joint statement issued after UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper’s first official visit to the UAE.

The geopolitical backdrop was hard to miss: Both sides condemned Iranian attacks on the UAE and the wider region while backing freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. They signaled that the broadened framework is also aimed at mitigating supply-chain and energy disruption risks after recent turmoil exposed the chokepoint’s global importance.

Only up from here: The two sides said the framework provides “an ambitious basis to deliver a long-term bilateral partnership and strengthened mutual resilience.”

Data point

USD 106 bn — that’s the value of Gulf-backed transactions across North America and Europe currently in limbo since the war forced investors in the region to revisit their strategies, according to Pitchbook data cited by the Financial Times.

Rising defense spending and energy disruption risks are pushing governments to prioritize “domestic investment, defense industrial capacity, and food security” over assets like venture capital or entertainment, says Ana Nacvalovaite, SWFs specialist at Oxford University’s Kellogg College.

Still, the mega-M&A is not dead: High-profile transactions like the USD 110 bn Paramount-Skydance and the USD 55 bn Electronic Arts takeovers reportedly remain on track.

IN CONTEXT- Six of the world’s 10 heftiest SWFs are based in our part of the world, controlling nearly USD 5 tn in assets. Even marginal shifts in their allocation can filter through to global M&A pipelines that depend on their anchor investments.

The big story abroad

While the latest developments from yesterday’s shooting at the White House correspondents’ dinner are dominating the front pages, a few other stories have caught our attention:

Our daily update on ceasefire negotiations: After the latest round of discussions between the US and Iran fell through, US President Donald Trump appears to have left the ball in Tehran’s court, saying Iran can reach out by phone to continue negotiations.

And in markets: Bullish sentiment over AI appears to have pushed equities to record highs. Since the outbreak of the regional war, 82 stocks, most of which are tied to the AI boom, have posted gains above 10%, which the Wall Street Journal attributed to investor confidence in data-center construction and infrastructure providers like Nvidia.

And speaking of AI: According to new reports, AI may end up costing businesses more than human labor, with computing costs exceeding salaries in some cases. Firms like Uber are seeing AI costs skyrocket, with some estimates placing global IT spending at USD 6.3 tn in 2026 — a 13% y-o-y jump.

In the (shrinking?) world of human achievement, Kenyan athlete Sabastian Sawe madehistory yesterday as the first runner to ever finish a competitive marathon in under two hours.

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THE BIG STORY TODAY

Localization is the focus for the UAE’s latest AED 1 bn wartime fund

The UAE approved a new AED 1 bn national fund to support vital industries and increase localization and supply chain resilience amid ongoing disruptions, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum said in an X post. The move extends a series of packages unveiled in the past few months, including a AED 1 bn package just for Dubai.

The first phase will focus on goods with scalable local production, including bottled water, dairy, eggs, poultry, bread, flour, vegetable oils, and seasonal vegetables, according to a Dubai Media Office statement, suggesting food security and everyday essentials remain front of mind after recent disruptions.

The F&B sector has been a headline theme since the war began: Policymakers are pushing for more local food manufacturing to reduce reliance on imports, which still account for around 80-90% of the country’s food. At the start of the war, officials had to clarify that the government has a strategic reserve of four to six months of food due to the concerns around supply chain disruptions.

The caveat: The exact measures on offer to those industries were not specified, but the focus seems to be skewed towards new localization efforts.

The government also approved a push to increase the presence of Made-in-UAE products across retailers and e-commerce platforms while expanding the National In-Country Value Program across all federal entities and national companies. The broader goal is to fully localize more than 5k vital products.

The goalposts: The fund is aimed at “advancing the localization of vital industries, strengthening supply chain resilience, and accelerating the adoption of AI technologies in production, operations and planning,” Al Maktoum said.

Elsewhere on the relief front: Startups in Sharjah

Sharjah launches another wartime buffer for startups: Sharjah Entrepreneurship Center (Sheraa) launched a AED 5 mn Entrepreneurs Resilience Fund offering non-dilutive, non-repayable grants and fast-tracked support for Sharjah-based startups and SMEs, according to a press release. The fund targets businesses in sectors like manufacturing, food security, and healthcare, while recipients will also receive mentorship, market visibility, and operational support.

This adds to a widening UAE relief push targeting smaller businesses, where cashflow shocks are often felt fastest during disruption. Recent measures have included rent relief, payment deferrals, and lease freezes for SMEs at Dubai South, broader incentives for freezone firms, alongside waived setup fees and more than AED 10 mn in SME incentives via Qashio. Dubai Healthcare City also launched cashflow relief for operators, while the CBUAE unveiled a resilience package for local lenders.

Tourism has been another priority area

Last week, tourism players in Ajman were given a boost after the emirate rolled out a support package including a six-month deferral of tourism fees, flexible payment options, and fine exemptions, alongside museum entry at no charge and waived exhibition participation charges through year-end.

A federal tourism package is also in the works as authorities look to cushion a sector that made up 13% of GDP in 9M 2025 but has already seen hotel occupancy slump and some properties temporarily close.

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M&A WATCH

BlueFive Capital’s latest play: A stake in Bugatti

Since its launch in 2024, private equity firm BlueFive Capital — headed by former Investcorp CEO Hazem Ben-Gacem — has been involved in many high-profile, big-ticket transactions. The latest one is in the automotive sector: The PE firm is the largest investor in a consortium led by US-based VC HOF Capital acquiring automaker Porsche's complete stake in supercar brand Bugatti, according to a statement (pdf).

What we know about the transaction: HOF now holds a 45% share in JV Bugatti Rimac alongside Croatian automotive-focused investment holding company Rimac Group with a 55% share. The size of the investment ticket has been kept confidential, although informed sources told Bloomberg in December the valuation is in USD 1.2 bn territory.

What’s next for Bugatti? After the agreement is given the final rubber stamp after regulatory clearances before the end of the year, “Rimac Group is set to take control of Bugatti Rimac and form a strategic partnership with HOF Capital and BlueFive Capital to support its continued growth,” the statement notes. HOF Capital will also become the largest shareholder in Rimac Group.

BlueFive has so far bankrolled an Abu Dhabi-based AI firm, a digital bank, and a Saudi ins. player, among others. It was also tapped as a general partner for a China-focused fund of funds, and closed a USD 3 bn fund to invest in US and Europe-based tech companies. The mandate seems to be: go global, and fast. The firm has managed to accumulate USD 7.4 bn in assets under management as of February.

As for what’s next for BlueFive…

The firm is shifting its focus on defense next. It’s working on raising USD 3 bn to invest in aerospace and defense, with an initial USD 1 bn first close targeted by 3Q, with a focus on companies aligned with Nato technologies.

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A MESSAGE FROM MASHREQ

When AI should lead and when humans must decide

In banking, AI is particularly effective in data-intensive and operationally complex environments. This includes processing fragmented information at scale, coordinating workflows across multiple systems, and identifying patterns that would otherwise require extensive manual review.

These capabilities are already embedded within core operational and risk infrastructure. At Mashreq, the reconciliation platform Cypher automates investigative workflows that previously required analysts to navigate multiple systems, reducing processing time from days to seconds.

The same operational foundation extends into adjacent risk functions, including financial

crime oversight. At this level, consolidated intelligence combines multiple data sources into a single view. The Eagle Eye platform integrates multiple risk-detection engines into a unified analyst interface, combining transactional and non-transactional data with predictive scoring and automated narrative drafting. This integration has delivered a 110% productivity improvement and more than 80% reduction in investigation time while maintaining regulatory alignment.

Beyond risk and operations, AI also strengthens institutional consistency. The enterprise virtual assistant TADA centralizes fragmented internal knowledge into a single trusted interface, improving information reliability and coordination across teams. Despite these gains, decision authority remains deliberate and structured. Where outcomes materially affect customers or carry regulatory and reputational implications, human oversight is required. AI enhances analytical depth and standardizes input, but final accountability resides with experienced professionals.

Sustaining these outcomes depends on clearly defined boundaries. In financial services, automation reinforces performance only when responsibility remains explicit.

Xi Liang, Head of AI, Mashreq

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PLANET FINANCE

Not another 2008

Point: Private credit funds are under pressure from higherborrowing costs and transparency concerns.

Counter-point: These funds’ conservative leverage and distinct capital structure provide a buffer that limits the risk of a systemic collapse. At least that’s what Amit Seru, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor of finance at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business argues in a piece for the Financial Times. Seru’s core thesis is that the asset class isn’t what’s going to set off a 2008-style financial crisis.

Private credit funds’ conservatively structured leverage ratio and equity absorption cushion losses, Seru argues. Banking leverage is around 8-to-1, or roughly 12 cents of equity per USD of assets, while private credit has an average ratio of 1.25-to-1. Roughly 65-80 cents of every USD of assets is funded by equity rather than debt for funds that borrow from banks. This means losses are absorbed by long-term equity investors first, making funds more resilient in downturns.

This asset class also holds a strategic advantage by locking in investor capital for long durations. This structure aligns liabilities with the span of underlying loans and reduces the risk of forced liquidation. Meanwhile, banks fund long-term assets with short-term liabilities that can be withdrawn on demand, creating maturity mismatches and fueling financial crises.

Bank ties and investor withdrawals aren’t major threats

Concerns about bank linkages are also overstated: Private credit funds typically only use bank credit lines for short-term needs, such as managing the timing of capital calls, Seru notes. The Federal Reserve even modeled a severe stress scenario in which private credit funds face distress and fully draw down these lines — even then, major banks remain well capitalized.

Rising investor withdrawals are less of a distress sign than a financial safety measure. Investors have rushed to redeem their capital amid transparency and AI-related risks, pushing multiple firms to cap withdrawals and avoid selling illiquid loans at steep reductions. These measures don’t mean that the sector is facing a crisis, but rather a precaution designed to slash losses and protect valuable assets.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets hit record highs in early trading this morning, led by Japan’s Nikkei, which gained around 1.5%, and South Korea’s Kospi, which was up over 2.0%. US futures are set to open mixed later today, with futures swinging between gains and losses.

ADX

9,789

+0.4% (YTD: -2%)

DFM

5,854

+0.7% (YTD: -3.2%)

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20

4,682.3

+0.9% (YTD: -4.2%)

USD : AED CBUAE

Buy 3.67

Sell 3.67

EIBOR

3.5% o/n

4% 1 yr

TASI

11,122

+0.1% (YTD: +6.0%)

EGX30

52,421

+0.1% (YTD: +25.3%)

S&P 500

7,165

+0.8% (YTD: +4.5%)

FTSE 100

10,379

-0.8% (YTD: +4.3%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,883

-0.2% (YTD: +0.6%)

Brent crude

USD 105.33

+0.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.52

-3.5%

Gold

USD 4,741

+0.4%

BTC

USD 78,422

+1.0% (YTD: -10.5%)

Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF

AED 3.59

0.0% (YTD: -4.3%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.77

-0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

18.71

-3.1% (YTD: +29.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.4% on Friday on turnover of AED 928.1 mn. The index is down 2% YTD.

In the green: Gulf Cement (+4.9%), Ins. House (+4.8%), and Abu Dhabi National Co. for Building Materials (+4.6%).

In the red: National Bank of Fujairah (-4.4%), Hayah Ins. (-4.1%), and Burjeel Holding (-3.5%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.7% on turnover of AED 709.2 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai rose 0.9%.

Corporate actions

Salama says the cleanup is done: DFM-listed takaful insurer Salama completed its capital restructuring program after converting its mandatory sukuk into equity and lifting paid-up capital to AED 820 mn, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The move — which comes after Eshraq and Humana Holding fully subscribed to the capital increase — restores solvency to what it described as a “strong and fully compliant level” under Central Bank of the UAE requirements.

IN CONTEXT- The turnaround came in two stages we’ve been tracking. Salama first cut capital to wipe out accumulated losses and meet tighter regulatory thresholds before raising a mandatory convertible sukuk in February as a liquidity bridge. Its conversion now increases the stakes of backers Eshraq Investments and Humana Holding while helping close out more than AED 420 mn in legacy exposures.

What comes next: With the balance sheet repaired, management said the focus now shifts to rebuilding underwriting capacity, reactivating distribution channels, and pursuing growth across life and wealth, health, and property and casualty lines.


APRIL

27 April (Monday): Gulf Creators, Atlantis The Palm, Dubai.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-7 May (Wednesday-Friday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

15-17 May (Friday-Sunday): Art Dubai, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, ICC Hall, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Desalination Forum, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

  • Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • 1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
  • 31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
  • 31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
  • 21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
  • 1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
  • 1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
  • Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

  • Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
  • Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
  • The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.
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