Good morning, friends, and happy hump day. The past 24 hours were not very pleasant if you’re in Dubai, with several loud booms heard throughout the day and some property damage reported in southern Dubai due to debris from interceptions falling on houses. UAE air defense reportedly engaged eight ballistic missiles, four cruise missiles, and 36 UAVs from Iran, state news agency Wam said.
Threats from Iran continue, with US technology firms in the Gulf once again said to be in the line of fire, according to reports.
WATCH THIS SPACE: Is the UAE lobbying the UN Security Council for a resolution authorizing military intervention to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? That’s the contention in an exclusive in this morning’s Wall Street Journal, which cites unnamed “Arab officials” as saying they want to see a US-European-Asian coalition carry out operations.
Yesterday’s good news — Dubai’s introduction of a AED 1 bn financial stimulus package for businesses — was followed by slightly worse news for businesses, as diesel prices surged 70% for the month of April, and other gas prices rose between 31% and 33%. The spike is expected to trickle down and lead to further inflationary pressures, particularly for freight and agriculture, which have already been hit by rising costs due to the war. We dive into this in this morning’s Big Story Today below.
Business continues as usual in other parts of the economy, with Abu Dhabi’s giants continuing to make investments abroad — from IHC in India to Mubadala and 2PointZero in Whoop — and Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority introducing a regulatory framework for crypto derivatives. Plus: Even on the debt front, Emirates NBD bucked the trend of slower financing and wider spreads, with a massive syndicated loan locked in at its tightest spread yet.
Watch this space
DEBT — Still, the region’s credit cracks are widening: Many of the region’s USD-denominated sukuk and bond yields blew out to five-year high spreads since the regional war started, but remain below pandemic levels, according to a Fitch Ratings note. Total GCC bond spreads widened by 42 bps on a YTD basis, with corporate spreads bearing the brunt of the increase at a 67 bps uptick, Emirates NBD said in a separate note (pdf).
Pricing pressure froze the primary market: GCC bonds shed 2.4% YTD in value, compared to a 1.6% dip in the broader EM segment, while issuance slowed to just USD 1.7 bn in March, down more than two-thirds y-o-y and sharply below the USD 10 bn raised in February.
The region did, however, show some signs of stabilization last week, with GCC bonds seeing a more muted 0.2% dip thanks to a small 0.4% gain on high-yield bond sales, leading the region to outperform wider EM peers who logged a 0.3% decrease
As the bond window narrows, activity is tilting toward alternative funding channels like syndicated loans (read today’s Debt Watch) and certificates of deposit. GCC syndicated loans are up 12% y-o-y to USD 450.5 bn as corporates look for bank-led lifelines.
REFRESHER- Some Dubai developers have borne the brunt of the damage, with six USD bonds issued by Binghatti and Omniyat tipping into distressed territory last week, while spreads on Sobha and Arada paper also blew out sharply..
Still, there is a buffer. Fitch says the region’s sukuks continue to trade tighter than conventional bonds, reflecting steady support from Islamic-bank liquidity. Emirates NBD also noted sukuk was down only 0.2% last week, even as broader regional markets stayed under pressure. In the past, debt issuances have recovered quickly once regional tensions eased, Fitch noted.
TRANSPORT — 100 driverless taxis are now picking up passengers on Dubai’s roads. The emirate’s Roads and Transport Authority has kicked off commercial operations of autonomous taxis in Umm Suqeim and Jumeirah, bringing Chinese autonomous driving firms WeRide and Apollo Go vehicles into the live transport network, according to a press release. Passengers can book taxis via the Uber app for the beachfront districts for now, ahead of a broader scale-up.
The timing matters. The 1Q launch stayed on track with original rollout plans despite previous reports that the war had disrupted operations for autonomous vehicle operators including WeRide, which had to pull its fleet and shift its staff to remote work. ApolloGo is still planning to scale its Dubai fleet to 1k.
Driverless cars are already on the road in Abu Dhabi, after WeRide rolled out the first self-driving taxis in Yas Island last November.
ENERGY — Dubai-based Dragon Oil plans to invest at least USD 3 bn in Egypt over the next few years to expand its exploration and production activity in the North African country, the company’s CEO Abdulkarim Al Maazmi told CNBC Arabia. The company will focus on developing current fields in Egypt while looking into acquiring some existing assets, he added.
Comprehensive push: Dragon Oil is pushing to deploy advanced AI and deep-drilling technology at the Al Wasl (North Safa), El Morgan, and Badri fields in the Gulf of Suez, where the company is looking to extend its concession for 20 or 30 more years. It also plans to drill an exploratory well in the area by 3Q this year.
Data point
30-40% — that’s how far rental leads fell y-o-y in Dubai last month, according to Betterhomes data seen by EnterpriseAM UAE. Tenant enquiries also dropped 16% y-o-y, while listings, on the other hand, rose 23% y-o-y, signaling a potential shift toward more supply against the backdrop of potentially softer demand amid the ongoing war.
REMEMBER- As far as sales go, real estate activity dropped 51% m-o-m in the first half of March, with transaction values plunging by half, as we’ve reported earlier. The overall volume of transactions also fell by 38% y-o-y over the same period, driven by a 52% decline in the off-plan segment. Still, analysts said the market is not reacting uniformly — and that liquidity in the market remains strong.
Leasing activity has improved since early March, according to BetterHomes data, with leads rising around 20% w-o-w, meaning the market is still moving — just with less room for misstep.
Demand, where it exists, is narrowing. People searching for leasing options are looking at Dubai Marina, Business Bay, Dubai Silicon Oasis, and JVC, suggesting tenants are still active but far more deliberate about where they commit. “Realistic pricing” will be key moving forward, Rupert Simmonds, director of leasing at Betterhomes, said.
PSAs
IB students won’t take exams in May: Due to Iran’s escalating regional attacks, International Baccalaureate students (IB) students in the UAE will not sit for the May final IB exams in May, Bloomberg reports, citing local school emails sent to parents. Students’ final results could end up being based on internal assessments and teacher predicted grades.
Final decisions regarding the exams rest with authorities, according to a statement on the organization’s website. So far, IB has also offered course deadline extensions, school transfers, and the option to postpone exams at no added cost, according to the website.
IN CONTEXT- Dubai recently extended online learning for schools for an additional two weeks until Friday, 17 April, while some universities in the UAE have already begun a phased return to campus classes. Earlier this month, the Indian Central Board of Secondary Education also scrapped exams that were scheduled between March and April for students in the region.
Abu Dhabi brings rooftop solar for residential properties: The Department of Energy (DoE) has launched the second phase of its Solar Energy Self-Supply Policy, opening the program to villa owners and residential buildings for the first time, according to Abu Dhabi Media Office.
ICYMI- The first phase of the program, rolled out in February, allowed farms and rest houses to install rooftop solar, solar water heaters, and battery storage to cover daytime consumption and reduce peak-hour grid reliance. Now, homeowners can use rooftop solar panels to generate and store electricity. The emirate also issued guidelines for efficient energy usage.
WEATHER- We should be in for stable conditions today, with some wind and a high of 28°C, before it cools to a low of 21°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, according to our favorite weather app.
The big story abroad
The news cycle remains fixed on the war in our region, but there may be an end in sight, with US President Donald Trump telling reporters that US forces will leave Iran in two to three weeks. Washington has been able to disable Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure, which will take up to 20 years to re-establish, Trump said.
Watch this space: Trump will deliver “an important update on Iran” in a national address scheduled for early tomorrow.
The resulting energy supply shock still holds sway, with US gasoline prices surpassing USD 4 per gallon — but investors remain confident that the Federal Reserve won’t be hiking rates anytime soon. Instead, investors anticipate the Fed will hold rates or potentially pivot to cuts later this year, wagering that rising energy costs are more likely to stifle economic growth than trigger inflation.
Meanwhile, in the world of AI: OpenAI raised USD 122 bn in a record-breaking funding round, raising its valuation to USD 852 bn. “AI is driving productivity gains, accelerating scientific discovery, and expanding what people and organizations can build. This funding gives us the resources to continue to lead at the scale this moment demands,” the company behind ChatGPT said. The round was led by Japan’s SoftBank.
ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS MORNING- US private equity firms are increasingly showing interest in Japan’s fast food industry. Notable investments include Carlyle Group’s USD 847 mn purchase of KFC’s Japan-based operations and Goldman Sachs’ JPY 70 bn acquisition of the country’s Burger King operations. The trend appears to be underpinned by demographic shifts and upswinging inflation, which make quick, convenient meals more appealing.
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