Good morning, everyone. We celebrate the news this morning of an indefinite ceasefire extension between the US and Iran, after US President Donald Trump made the announcement hours before the ceasefire was set to expire. The extension gives the two nations more time to continue negotiations.
How indefinite are we talking? Trump said the ceasefire will be extended until Iran submits its proposal and “discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” Washington’s blockade will continue until an agreement is reached.
It remains unclear where Iran stands: In the absence of a response from Tehran’s top leadership, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency stated that Tehran never sought a ceasefire extension and reiterated threats to break the US blockade of its ports by force. An adviser to Iran’s lead negotiator dismissed Trump’s announcement as insignificant.
As expected, global oil prices retreated on the news, despite an initial uptick at the opening of Asian trading earlier this morning. Brent crude is currently down 0.4% to USD 98.09 per barrel.
Mixed market response: The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index eased 0.14%, dropping from a seven-week high. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.5%, and South Korea’s Kospi eased around 0.6% in early trading this morning. US stocks are set to open in the green, with futures recording gains across the board.
We will be closely watching how local and regional markets react to the news when they open in a few hours.
We have a mixed bag of stories for you today. Front and center is a look at the knock-on effects of the steep fuel price rises we saw earlier this month, with experts telling us what it means for different sectors, from industry to logistics.
We also have news of EGA making yet another European play, fresh off its force majeure announcement, and the impact of the war on earnings is starting to show as a few local players start to turn in results for 1Q 2026.
Plus: We’re following reports that DP World may be tapped for a role in rebuilding Gaza’s supply chain network by Donald Trump’s so-called “Board of Peace,” and looking at news of Alterra investing into KKR’s climate fund.
☀️WEATHER- Dubai is only getting hotter, but Abu Dhabi is getting a bit of a reprieve today. Look for a high of 37°C in Dubai along with a low of 28°C, while the capital will see a cooler high of 31°C and a low of 25°C, with more breezy conditions.
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FINANCE — Abu Dhabi National Ins. Company (Adnic) has secured a license to operate a reins. branch in Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City) as of the start of this month, CNBCTV18 reports, citing company disclosures. Adnic had already secured approval from the Central Bank of the UAE for the move, with plans to launch the branch late this year. The opening will add to its existing offices in Saudi Arabia and the UK, as well as the Emirates.
IN CONTEXT- India is positioning GIFT City as a financial hub and a base for offshore ins. and reins. activity, attracting global players with tax incentives and lower capital requirements.
Background: India and the UAE have agreed to facilitate setting up UAE companies in GIFT City, with First Abu Dhabi Bank and DP World among early movers. Mashreq is also planning an expansion there pending regulatory approvals, while the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority secured approval in 2024 to set up a local unit and launch a USD 4-5 bn fund.
RAIL — DXB and DWC will have a metro link: Dubai’s Road and Transport Authority (RTA) has put out a tender for consultants to design an Airport Express Line linking Dubai International Airport (DXB) to Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC) in Jebel Ali. Bids are due in June.
The details: The 55 km line, which will have five stations, will also include security screening, baggage drop, and remote check-ins, which means the journey between the airports will be integrated into the airport ecosystem. The route starts at the Red Line at DXB, runs through Al Jaddaf and along Al Khail Road to Jumeirah Village Circle, then heads to DWC — with two branches plugging into Emirates Golf Club and Business Bay.
More growth: As the Etihad Rail high-speed line comes under construction for 2030, the RTA is set to tender more work this year, including the Route 2020 extension — a 3 km link with two stations connecting Expo 2020 station to DWC’s West Terminal.
PORTS — DP World to rebuild Gaza’s supply chain network? Representatives tied to Donald Trump’s so-called “Board of Peace” reportedly held talks with DP World on taking over logistics infrastructure in Gaza, the Financial Times reports, citing three people familiar with the matter. Talks included a partnership to run the logistics for humanitarian aid and other goods, including warehousing, tracking systems, and security.
The proposal sketches a full ecosystem: A draft seen by FT outlines a “secure and traceable supply chain system” tied to a “port-led economic ecosystem,” paired with other light industries and “employment-generating trade platforms.” Ideas also include building a new port in Gaza or on Egypt’s coast and pairing it with a freetrade zone.
Where this lands is still unclear: It’s still not known which side drafted the proposal or how far talks have progressed, though discussions reportedly started late last year.
DP World has doubled down on contested areas in need of rebuilding, including port investments in Somaliland and post-war Syria. This is another calculated entry into a politically complex market where logistics gaps create leverage.
BACKGROUND- Reconstruction needs in Gaza are estimated at USD 71.4 bn over the next decade, including USD 23 bn in the next 18 months.
BUSINESS — Dubai SME and e-commerce firm Noon are the latest players to roll out incentive programs for SMEs, launching a partnership that’ll see Noon Food integrate eligible Dubai SME firms onto its digital marketplace at no charge, according to Dubai Media Office. Firms will be able to access payment infrastructure and client and delivery bases through the platform, as well as account management and support.
ICYMI- While the statement doesn’t give a specific reason for the move, the decision comes at a time when several Emirati players are stepping in to give SMEs a boost as the consequences of the regional war continue to be felt across multiple sectors. Among those offering SMEs a helping hand are Dubai South and Dubai-based Qashio.
INVESTMENT WATCH — Alterra adds KKR to its climate roster: Abu Dhabi-based Alterra, the USD 30 bn, government-backed blended-finance vehicle launched at COP28, has committed to invest in KKR’s global climate transition fund, according to a statement. Financial terms were not disclosed.
The latest allocation adds KKR to a growing line-up of global asset managers tapped by Alterra, which has already announced agreements with BlackRock, Brookfield, and TPG. Alterra also launched a USD 1.2 bn co-investment vehicle with BBVA earlier this year, signalling a broader shift from simply backing funds to helping manage and structure climate capital itself. The UAE has said the platform could help unlock USD 250 bn of climate finance by 2030.
Data point
1.1% — that was Abu Dhabi’s annual inflation in February, down from 1.6% in January, according to the latest data (pdf) from the Abu Dhabi Statistics Center. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index edged up 0.1%, reversing a 0.1% decline recorded the previous month, according to separate data (pdf).
Housing and utilities are still the biggest driver: The largest component of the CPI basket — housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels — remained the primary driver, rising 4.9% y-o-y in February, up from 4.5% a month earlier. The continued climb underscores sustained pressure from rents and utility costs. Meanwhile, furnishings, household equipment, and maintenance costs rose 5.6% y-o-y.
Transport drags the headline lower: Transport prices fell sharply by 6.5% y-o-y, compared to a 2.6% decline a month earlier, marking the largest downward contribution to inflation. Clothing and footwear also weighed on the index, contracting by 6.5% y-o-y, while food and beverage inflation eased to 1.2% from 1.7% in January.
Mixed demand signals: Discretionary spending indicators remained uneven, with recreation and culture prices slipping back into contraction at -2.8% after a brief uptick in January, while restaurants and hotels saw a modest uptick to 2.4%, pointing to steady but moderate consumer demand.
Expect a lot of this to change come March: We’re on the lookout for inflation figures for March to assess how the knock-on effects of the war, including shipping disruptions and a spike in raw material and fuel costs, have filtered through to consumers.
Inflation will likely keep rising: The rise in housing and fuel prices indicates that the trend of inflation — which rose notably in the last three months — will continue on an annual basis, especially since the figures still reflect the pre-war economy, MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells EnterpriseAM.
Happening this week
Some events are still happening despite the wave of cancellations and delays till the fall window, including:
The AbuDhabi Global Entrepreneurship Festival enters its final day today at the Abu Dhabi Energy Center, where founders, investors, policymakers, and ecosystem operators have been swapping pitches, capital plans, and growth playbooks across a range of specialized tracks.
MawaridFintech and Innovation Summit will be held tomorrow at Grand Hyatt Dubai, bringing together more than 1k leaders and experts from across the financial technology sector. The event will focus on digital payments, AI-driven platforms, blockchain applications, and the expansion of open finance frameworks.
The big story abroad
The global front pages are focused on Trump’s announcement of an extended ceasefire between the US and Iran, which we dive into in the news well, above. Also making headlines this morning:
How did Warsh’s confirmation hearing go? Trump’s Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh affirmedthe Fed’s independence during his Senate confirmation hearing, stating that Trump has not attempted to “predetermine, commit, fix or decide on any interest rate decision.” Warsh called for major reforms at the Fed, including a new framework for handling inflation, and took issue with the central bank’s “forward guidance” — the practice of signaling the future trajectory of rates.
And your daily dose of AI news: SpaceX has gained the “right to acquire” AI startup Cursor for USD 60 bn, agreeing to pay USD 10 bn if it does not proceed with the transaction. The potential acquisition of Cursor — which enables users to edit code with AI — is seen as a way for Elon Musk to catch up in the AI race ahead of SpaceX’s IPO.
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