Emirates NBD eyes AT1 issuance in first potential public market issuance since the war

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

UAE’s GDP to stagnate this year -Reuters poll

Good morning, friends. It’s still unclear how US-Iran talks will move forward, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio implying that Iran will not cede control of the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran proposed delaying talks over its nuclear program once the war has ended.

As the war drags on and the double blockade at the Strait of Hormuz stretches supply chains more than ever, we’re seeing reports of disruptions hitting new sectors every day. Market headwinds are leading some to delay IPOs and others to delay planned debt issuances (read: Burjeel Holding, below).

Others are doing the opposite, shoring up their war chests. Emirates NBD is reportedly tapping public markets for an AT1 issuance, just weeks after raising a USD 2.25 bn syndicated loan and USD 325 mn in private placements. Meanwhile, embedded finance platform Comfi just raised USD 65 mn to help cushion the strain on SMEs — and expand into Saudi Arabia.

This comes as economists downgrade forecasts for the region, with the latest Reuters poll — conducted between 8 and 24 April — showing that most now see the UAE’s growth stagnating this year, compared to a forecast of 5% expansion just three months ago. Others in the region — Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain — are expected to shrink, while Saudi Arabia and Oman could fare slightly better due to their stronger position in the crude markets amid ongoing disruptions.

It’s going to take a while for the economy to recover, but it will happen: “The GDP-level that will emerge after the war is clearly lower for the next several years, despite a relatively swift recovery… It will take the entire second half of 2026 to rebuild damaged assets and re-establish supply chains,” Ralf Wiegert, head of MENA economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said. Economists see UAE growth coming in at 5.4% next year.

Watch this space

CRITICAL MINERALS — The UAE and the US are reportedly backing a USD 100 mn effort by Congo’s General Inspectorate of Mines to create a paramilitary unit to oversee and protect its mines, Bloomberg reports, citing an emailed statement. The agency wants to hire as many as 3k armed recruits by December and 20k by 2028.

What’s the paramilitary force’s role? To secure production, oversee traceable transport of minerals, and replace “defense forces currently deployed in mining zones.”

It’s unclear whether this is government or private funding, but our guess is that it’s government-backed. The UAE and the US have been working together on “securing” critical minerals supply chains — specifically those linked to AI — which the US has been trying to do to counter China’s dominance in the sector. The US launched Pax Silica to that effect, and the UAE joined the initiative in January alongside other countries, including Japan, India, the UK, South Korea, and Qatar.

Pax Silica has already yielded several initiatives, including a framework agreement to formalize and mobilize public and private capital toward critical minerals. Additionally, an investment consortium featuring Mubadala Investment was launched to invest in projects that enhance supply chain resilience across the energy and critical minerals sectors.

And in other Congo-UAE critical minerals cooperation news… Paradigm Holdings, a UAE-based family office and investment group with interests spanning mining, real estate, hospitality, and other sectors, signed a supply agreement with the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Arabian Business reports. The agreement helps the company build a "scalable, long-term supply network that connects directly back into the UAE’s role as a global trading center,” Paradigm founder Steven Hawkins is quoted as saying. The company already has refineries across Cape Verde, Morocco, and Rwanda.

ENERGY — Did an Adnoc LNG tanker just cross Hormuz? An LNG tanker operated by Adnoc Logistics & Services appears to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly becoming the first vessel of its kind to do so since the outbreak of the regional war, Reuters reports, citing ship-tracking data. After weeks without broadcasting its location, the vessel appears to be off the west coast of India.

DEBT WATCH — Burjeel hits pause on its debut sukuk: ADX-listed healthcare provider Burjeel Holdings has put a planned USD 1.5 bn Islamic bond issuance on hold, CEO Shamsheer Vayalil told Semafor, citing the war and weaker market conditions. “Spreads have changed,” he said.

IN CONTEXT- Burjeel had been meeting regional and international investors pre-war in February as part of an early-stage roadshow, in what would have marked a notable return of Gulf healthcare issuers to hard-currency debt markets after NMC Health’s 2020 collapse chilled sentiment across the sector. The group had reportedly been preparing to close the transaction in London.

The proceeds were meant in part to fund a medical education and research expansion that aimed to attract top talent and global pharma partners to the UAE, Vayalil told Semafor.

Not entirely off the table: Burjeel could revisit the transaction if conditions improve and with “some local good government support,” Vayalil added. Authorities have already moved quickly with wartime support measures, including cashflow relief at Dubai Healthcare City and a new AED 1 bn national fund focused on localization and supply-chain resilience.

In other news, the war also reshaped priorities on the ground: “No more office,” Vayalil said, adding that Burjeel’s C-suite moved into hospitals, while the group stockpiled supplies, kept emergency rooms on standby during the earlier days of the conflict in anticipation of a surge in patients, and opened a mental health hotline for staff.

DISRUPTION WATCH — Fertilizer bottlenecks are turning into a supply shock: More than half of the Middle East’s urea output may have been lost since the Iran conflict began, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz stalls shipments and leaves product stranded in the Gulf, Bloomberg reports, citing CRU Group estimates of 55%-60% halted output.

Why it matters well beyond the Gulf: Roughly 45% of global urea trade comes from producers with manufacturing sites on the Gulf, supplying key markets including India, Europe, and Brazil. Bloomberg data also showed 44 fertilizer vessels still stuck in the Gulf, with almost half carrying urea.

A major fertilizer producer here at home says it’s been navigating the disruption: CEO Ahmed El Hoshy told The National the company had made “pretty abnormal movements of vessels” and was rerouting cargo from Algeria and Nigeria to Australia, while using higher fertilizer prices to offset added logistics costs. “We’re trying our best to move the product out,” he said.

The longer the disruption lasts, the harder the reset may be. CRU warned producers could face further shutdowns if storage fills up, adding that fertilizer plant restarts “are not a switch,” suggesting supply strains may outlast any eventual reopening of Hormuz.

M&A Watch — Paramount’s takeover of Warner Bros. awaits FCC approval: Paramount has submitted a request to the Federal Communications Commission to approve the funding structure for its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery. The filing is necessary to bypass statutory limits on foreign ownership of US broadcasting assets, as foreign entities will own slightly less than 50% of the merged entity. This comes a day after Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders greenlit the merger.

REMEMBER- The merger was reportedly backed by some USD 24 bn in commitments from Abu Dhabi government-owned firm L’imad and other GCC sovereign wealth funds, which are anchoring the capital-intensive takeover.

PSA

Flying Emirates anytime soon? You might be able to access better wifi if you’re on an A380, as the first A380 is now equipped with 2 GB worth of bandwidth courtesy of Starlink, according to a Dubai Media Office statement. This gives passengers more wifi access points and stronger connectivity.

We knew this was coming: Emirates confirmed in November that it would equip all 232 aircraft in its in-service widebody fleet with Starlink by mid-2027, after months of talks and certification work we first reported on last year. The airline says 25 Boeing 777-300ER aircraft are already fitted, with more than 650k passengers having flown on Starlink-enabled services so far.

What’s next: More A380 installations are due throughout 2026, with live TV streaming planned later.

REMEMBER- It isn’t just for airlines anymore: Starlink also went live for consumers in the UAE last month, offering satellite broadband locally.

WEATHER- We’re inching closer to the 40°C mark… Today’s high in Dubai is 38°C, with a low of 27°C, while Abu Dhabi will see a high of 37°C and a low of 27°C.

Happening today

The US Federal Reserve starts its open market committee meeting today. It’s widely expected to leave rates on hold, and the Central Bank of the UAE and other Gulf central banks will likely follow suit given the USD peg. The central banks of the UK, EU, and Canada will also set rates this week.

The big story abroad

It is a pretty quiet morning on the global front pages, with the latest on the US-Iran negotiations getting top billing.

Where do the peace talks stand? It is unlikely that we’ll see any progress in the talks between the US and Iran anytime soon. US President Donald Trump is reportedly dissatisfied with Iran’s latest proposal, which calls for an end to the US naval blockade, deferring discussions regarding Iran’s nuclear program until after the war is over.

We’ll be waiting to hear from Trump after the White House Press Secretary told reporters that he will address the matter very soon.

Meanwhile, in the world of finance: The value of the fund finance market has ballooned beyond USD 1 tn, according to a Moody’s Ratings report. The industry is surging as private credit funds multiply and a dealmaking slump forces private equity firms to seek frequent injections of banknotes.

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ENBD to reopen regional AT1 market?

Emirates NBD is raising even more funds… but this time it’s from public markets. Emirates NBD is the first to test the waters for an additional tier 1 (AT1) bond since the war began, tapping a roster of banks to arrange investor meetings for a perpetual non-call six-year issuance, Bloomberg reports, citing a person in the know.

Proceeds from the USD-denominated offering, expected to follow a London roadshow, will reportedly be used for general corporate purposes and to support its capital base, according to a prospectus seen by Bloomberg

IN CONTEXT- The move comes just weeks after the lender closed a USD 2.25 bn syndicated loan and Murabaha facility at its tightest-ever pricing, and days after it reported a 3% y-o-y increase in 1Q bottomline to AED 6.4 bn earlier this week. It also raised USD 325 mn from private markets.

It’s been on a borrowing — and expansion — spree for a while now: The bank has been active across both debt and bank funding markets every month this year, issuing a EUR 500 mn green bond in mid-February, just a month after its landmark USD 1 bn blue-green bond. This comes as it inches closer to completing its USD 3 bn acquisition of India’s RBL Bank, for which it received regulatory clearance in India earlier this month.

ADVISORS- Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, HSBC, Barclays, Citi, and JP Morgan are quarterbacking the potential transaction as joint lead managers and bookrunners, according to Zawya.

Could the global risk-off sentiment be fading? While a global index of USD-hedged AT1 bonds fell 2.5% in March as markets turned risk-off, it reversed almost all of those losses in April and is now up 1.6% for the year with recent issuances from global heavyweights like HSBC and BNP Paribas.

SOUND SMART- AT1 bonds are the riskiest type of bank debt — they sit at the very bottom of the capital stack, just above equity, because investors face a coupon risk. Unlike senior debt, a bank can skip an AT1 interest payment without it being considered a default.

A sop, not a swap

Everyone’s talking about the currency swap the UAE is reportedly discussing with the US — but most media outlets have got it wrong. Many — we’re looking at you, New York Times and Wall Street Journal — have framed it as a “loan” and a “lifeline,” but that’s just poor headline writing.

First up: The UAE has plenty of greenbacks in the bank — USD 300 bn at the end of February, thank you very much — so this is not a matter of shoring up FX reserves. Second: It won’t have burned even a fraction of that despite the drying up of FX revenue streams since the war began.

Plus: The UAE has easy, affordable access to the global debt market. To pick but one recent data point: Investors placed bids for nearly 5x more than was on offer in the UAE’s AED 1.1 bn Islamic treasury sukuk auction yesterday. The Finance Ministry priced the 2033 tranche at a 10 bps spread over US Treasuries, anchoring the long end of the AED curve.

So why? Why would you need a “financial lifeline” if you have USD 300 bn in the vault? Think of it this way: Most of the UAE’s USD holdings are parked in the central bank or locked up in big sovereigns, including Adia, Mubadala, ADQ, and L’Imad. Meanwhile, the banking system is being starved of USD inflows from the oil trade and tourism, thanks to the war — but banks still need to clear trade, settle payments, and roll their own USD liabilities. Oh, and the swap? It costs nothing and may never be used. It’s cheap ins.

“Currency swap agreements between central banks are typically precautionary liquidity tools rather than emergency funding mechanisms,” banking and finance consultant and investment and trade strategy advisor Amjad Naser tells us. “They allow counterparties to access foreign currency (often USD) in exchange for local currency, with an agreement to reverse the transaction at a later date,” he says, emphasizing that “swaps act as a backstop rather than a primary funding source.”

What the UAE wants is the country-level equivalent of a secured credit card. The UAE is facing a “liquidity mismatch,” not running out of ready capital, Ryan Lemand, a former advisor to the UAE government and founder and CEO of wealth manager NeoVision, writes in a LinkedIn post we’ve previously quoted. “No one is giving anyone money. It's a currency loan, secured by a currency deposit, with no credit risk on either side,” Lemand adds. The Fed, he notes, has standing swap lines with EU, Canadian, Japanese, and UK central banks. “None of those counterparties were receiving ‘aid.’”

A Federal Reserve swap line would act as a high-signal liquidity buffer, reinforcing confidence in the UAE’s financial system despite its already strong FX reserves and external position, Naser says. Ultimately, the arrangement would enhance the UAE’s strategic flexibility amid shifting global trade dynamics and heightened volatility, Naser notes.

What’s in it for the US?

For starters, the US doesn’t want to see countries around the world — squeezed by the fallout from its war on Iran — start dumping treasuries. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Senate that “swap lines, whether it’s from the Federal Reserve or the Treasury, are to maintain order in the [USD] funding markets and to prevent the sale of the US assets in a disorderly way. The swap line would both benefit the UAE and the US.”

“These financial moves may also signal the UAE edging closer to the US after Iranian attacks during the war,” Geoeconomist Celine Bteish and MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaood write in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. The swap represents a vehicle for Washington “to counter Chinese regional influence,” particularly in light of existing facilities with the People’s Bank of China.

The Wall Street Journal also warned that the UAE had intimated it was considering pricing oil in RMB, and that claim spread like wildfire, feeding into a multiyear story arc that has seen actors including Russia, China, and in some emerging markets picking at the USD’s position as the world’s currency of choice for trade and reserves.

Why would the UAE float pricing oil in RMB? It’s about a better position at the bargaining table. On the one hand, no US administration can accept a challenge to the dominance of the petrodollar. On the other, the UAE is looking to bolster its bargaining position across several strategic fronts. Key priorities include securing continued access to AI chips and compute (had been a thorny issue until Abu Dhabi turned its back on Chinese tech), the restocking of air defense systems, and finally getting access to the F-35 program (still stalled). Beyond defense, the UAE wants to ensure that its investments in the US (demanded by Trump) get preferential treatment from prickly regulators (hello, CFIUS — and pre-cleared investment corridors or AI and critical tech infrastructure). Ultimately, the UAE is seeking to lock in a seat at the post-war regional table. There’s a reason, friends, that the crown prince of Abu Dhabi was in Beijing earlier this month.

The trend is also bigger than just the UAE or the US

The UAE is also strengthening its fiscal buffers and “evolving its non-USD denominated swaps,” Naser said, highlighting a broader shift supporting de-dollarization and deeper financial ties with Asian markets. Recent agreements include a USD 5.4 bn swap with Bahrain, as well as an AED 18 bn facility with China in 2023 and a USD 4.9 bn swap with Turkey last year.

Embedded finance platform Comfi raises USD 65 mn in debt and equity amid SME squeeze

Dubai-based B2B embedded finance platform Comfi closed a USD 65 mn pre-Series A round consisting of equity and debt to help it scale its regional footprint and expand “aggressively” into Saudi Arabia by next year, co-founder and CEO Sanjar Samiev tells us. The equity portion was led by Iliad Partners, with Yango Ventures and Raw Ventures making their first-ever regional investments, according to a statement (pdf). The round also includes a credit facility from US-based private credit provider Partners for Growth and a mezzanine facility from Shorooq Partners.

Why this matters now: The funding round comes at a time when SMEs’ margins are more squeezed than ever, input costs are skyrocketing — from gasoline to raw materials — and ongoing supply chain disruptions are straining plenty of companies.

“Demand has never been higher,” Samiev says. “When margins compress and costs rise unpredictably, the one lever SMEs can control is timing — when they pay and when they get paid,” he adds.

The startup offers SMEs 90-day installment plans while paying suppliers instantly, a setup that he says has now shifted “from a convenience to a genuine operational necessity for a large part of our customer base.” The startup has processed some USD 75 mn in transactions over the past 12 months via its platform.

Most of Comfi’s customers have already absorbed supply chain volatility into their new pricing structures, Samiev explains, adding that it’s likely the consumer’s turn next, making working capital access for SMEs important for the entire supply chain. “The adjustment has happened at the sourcing and pricing level — and now the pressure point is

cashflow timing, which is exactly what we solve,” he says.

The wider backdrop for SMEs has seen freezones, lenders, and government entities roll out support packages for the sector in recent weeks. From Emirates NBD to Dubai South and startups like Qashio, measures including deferred fees and waived penalties aim at cushioning private-sector strain linked to the regional conflict.

It’s also great timing for the startup itself, especially as some foreign investors are expected to tighten their purses when it comes to regional investments, given the headwinds facing the region during the war. This round “gives us 18 months of operational runway to grow without the pressure of fundraising in an even more uncertain environment,” Samiev says.

The mix of regional and global investors is another important signal. “Regional investors bring context, network, and credibility within the markets we operate in,” Samiev says. Meanwhile, global investors “bring a benchmark — they’re comparing us not just to GCC fintechs but to what’s working in Europe, Southeast Asia, and the US,” he adds.

Confidence, with caution

UAE retail investors remain broadly confident in local markets despite the war and regional volatility, according to eToro’s latest UAE Retail Investor Beat survey (pdf) of 1k investors. Some 91% said they remain confident in the long-term performance of UAE-listed companies, while 90% expressed confidence in the wider UAE economy. Some 83% also said they hold UAE-listed stocks, only slightly below 85% in the previous survey.

The conflict is clearly on investors’ minds. Some 38% said geopolitical tensions in the Middle East would definitely impact their portfolios over the next six months, while another 40% expect some effect. Risk perceptions are rising too, with 35% now viewing the region as economically risky to invest in, up from 30% previously.

That caution is feeding into shorter-term expectations: The share of investors forecasting strong UAE stock market growth over the next 12 months slipped to 42% from 48%, even if another 34% still see moderate growth ahead.

The mood shift broadly tracks what we’ve been reporting in markets: Dubai’s DFM shed 16.4% in March — its worst monthly drop since the pandemic — while Abu Dhabi’s ADX fell 8.9%, as foreign investors turned net sellers to the tune of AED 1.06 bn across both exchanges. Analysts also told us IPO hopefuls were pushing listings from 1H into later this year as sentiment turned more selective, with Dubai Investments the latest to potentially delay the listing of Dubai Investments Park.

The interesting twist is longer-term optimism. The majority of investors now believe Middle Eastern markets will generate the strongest returns over five years or more, rising to 60% from 58%. eToro’s George Naddaf said investors see “higher risk but higher return potential,” with short-term tensions likely not derailing the region’s broader investment thesis.

Portfolio behavior backs that up: Fewer investors are increasing contributions, with 57% saying they added to portfolios over the past three months versus 65% previously. Still, most are not heading for the exits. Some 80% said they have adjusted or plan to adjust portfolios in response to tensions, with precious metals the top beneficiary (56%), followed by energy commodities (43%) and global equities outside affected regions (31%).

What are they still backing at home? Real estate topped sector optimism at 54% (notable given property stocks were among the hardest hit during March’s selloff), followed by technology and energy.

Naddaf said the data points to “a clear shift in behavior rather than a loss of confidence,” with investors staying in the market but sharpening their focus on resilience, diversification, and risk management.

Dubai REIT holds firm in 1Q

The REIT tracking Dubai’s residential property sector logged a solid 1Q despite headwinds facing the sector since the war began. Dubai Residential Real Estate Investment Trust’s (REIT) revenues rose 8.4% y-o-y in the three months to March as Dubai’s rental market stayed tight, according to its results statement (pdf). Average portfolio occupancy reached 98.9%, while average revenue per leased sq ft climbed 7.4%.

Management struck an upbeat tone: The quarter showed the “underlying strength of Dubai’s residential market,” Managing Director Ahmed Al Suwaidi said, as the city logged 170k lease contracts worth AED 15.1 bn and AED 134.8 bn of home sales across 44.4k transactions. This broadly mirrors what analysts told us earlier this month: March activity remained solid by historical standards despite softer pricing, suggesting the market may be cooling rather than cracking, with slower growth rather than an outright correction pencilled in for 2026.

Gross asset value rose to AED 23.8 bn from AED 23.5 bn at year-end, while tenant retention improved to 98.0%, suggesting residents are choosing to stay put despite higher rents.

But it has been a rougher ride in the market: The REIT’s shares have slipped around 13.5% since the war began, falling from AED 1.33 to AED 1.15, suggesting investors still view real estate through a risk-averse lens. As we previously noted, real estate equities were among the hardest hit during a war-induced selloff earlier in March, with both ADX and DFM property indices shedding roughly 27% in March, though the DFM real estate gauge has since rebounded 5.6% this month.

Growth is still in the pipeline: Garden View Villas were added during the quarter, while Jebel Ali Village is due to add another 220 units in 2Q 2026. Together, the two projects are expected to generate AED 70-80 mn in additional revenue once stabilized. The REIT is also evaluating further prospects within Dubai Holding’s pipeline, including Lantana Hills in Dubai Science Park, The Acres in Dubailand, and a potential expansion at Dubai Wharf.

More awarded contracts for Palm Jebel Ali, Kuwait Petroleum International eyes further expansion in the UAE, and Adia deploys more capital

Palm Jebel Ali continues to make progress on construction

Another massive contract for Palm Jebel Ali villas: Dubai state developer Nakheel awarded AED 3.5 bn in contracts for villa construction in Palm Jebel Ali to Ginco General Contracting and United Engineering Construction, two contractors who are already working on around 550 villas in the area, according to a statement. The two developers were tapped, along with Indian contractor Shapoorji Pallonji Mideast, for USD 1.36 bn in contracts earlier in 2024, with construction set for completion by the end of this year.

The new contracts will see the pair work on 544 villas, with Ginco handling 354 and UNEC delivering 190 villas by 4Q 2028. Construction is scheduled to start this quarter.

Kuwait Petroleum’s jet fuel arm could work with Enoc to cover Sharjah airport

Kuwait Petroleum International wants to expand cooperation with Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc) to cover Sharjah International Airport through its subsidiary Q8 Aviation, Arab Times reports. The move builds on an existing foothold in Dubai, where Q8 Aviation already supplies fuel through its Enoc partnership.

Background: Q8 Aviation teamed up with Enoc for its entry into the UAE’s fuel sector, which saw challenges from already entrenched suppliers. The partnership opened the door for operations at Dubai International Airport with Royal Brunei Airlines and Al Maktoum International Airport with Air Baltic and Hainan Airlines, focusing on international flights.

Securing jet fuel is becoming a major concern for international airlines as of late, with global disruptions and high demand sending jet fuel prices up 103% in March, with consumers expected to feel the pain first.

Adia deploys more capital

Adia keeps leaning into data-center plumbing: A wholly owned subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) has joined a fresh capital raise for Singapore- and Thailand-based TeraHop, a supplier of high-speed optical transceivers used in data centers, Zawya reports. Terms were not disclosed, though TeraHop said proceeds will go toward expanding manufacturing, boosting operations, and continued R&D.

REMEMBER- Adia has been signalling business as usual through the volatility: The sovereign investor has also been ramping up exposure to private credit in Europe and Asia, suggesting Abu Dhabi’s biggest pools of capital are still deploying globally.

A tale of two M&A markets

MENA M&A activity fell 74% y-o-y in value terms in 1Q 2026, falling to USD 18.8 bn as the US and Israel’s war on Iran dampened market sentiment, according to LSEG data.

It was inbound M&A in the region that tripped up the most during the quarter, falling 90% y-o-y to a 10-year low of USD 4.6 bn. Meanwhile, outbound M&A also fell, albeit at a much softer pace of 55% y-o-y to USD 11.5 bn. That’s the lowest value of M&A transactions originating from the region in two years.

The big fish of the quarter: The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority’s (Adia) sale of its entire 18.4% stake in Pension Ins. Corporation Group, which closed last quarter, topped the charts as the largest M&A transaction with any MENA involvement. The transaction was valued at some USD 4 bn. Other major transactions in the quarter included ePointZero Holding’s USD 2.3 bn acquisition of a 100% stake in US-based energy firm Traverse Midstream Partners, as well as Aluminium Bahrain’s USD 2.2 bn acquisition of France’s Aluminium Dunkerque.

Goldman Sachs took the lead as the financial adviser with the largest value and volume of transactions under its belt in MENA during the quarter, advising on three transactions worth a combined USD 34.8 bn, according to GlobalData. Some of the largest transactions it worked on include PIF’s Savvy Games Group’s USD 6 bn acquisition of Shanghai Moonton, as well as the Alba-Dunkerque takeover.

Even with the downturn, it’s still “too early” to extrapolate what the rest of the year holds, Goldman Sachs’ co-head of MENA Investment Banking Jassim AlSane says. Some analysts are expecting a short-term slowdown in the dealmaking numbers amid heightened uncertainty caused by the regional conflict. Amid the uncertainty, M&A activity will shift towards safe havens that will help hedge against inflation and volatility, AlSane said. “The regional fundamentals remain intact, and if anything, the economies in the GCC have proven their resilience despite the volatility in geopolitics,” he said.

The global outlook is looking promising

A rosier view? Pure M&A volumes are expected to rise to USD 3.8 tn in 2026, surpassing 2021 and 2025 levels, Tim Ingrassia, co-chairman of global M&A in investment banking at GS, said in a recent note. “To get a measure of ‘pure M&A volume,’ Ingrassia omits spinoffs, private company funding rounds, and [transactions] involving special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs,” the note says.

The “tyranny of terminal value” is helping to drive that global activity: With AI disrupting long-term business models, investors are no longer buying based on the current business environment, but rather based on their predictions of a stock’s worth in the future — anywhere between six to infinity years down the line, Ingrassia says. “Terminal value is one of the biggest contributors to why buyers need to participate in M&A,” he says.

Meanwhile, private equity is facing a structural crisis of stuck capital, as fund distributions are at a 16-year low, according to data from MSCI and Global Banking & Markets. Firms are facing mounting pressure to accelerate the sale of portfolio companies and boost returns to their investors, Ingrassia notes.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are mixed in early trading this morning as investors sit tight, awaiting earnings season and monetary policy decisions from the US, Japan, UK, and Europe. Japan’s Nikkei and the Hang Seng are in the red, while the Kospi and Shanghai Composite are looking at gains.

ADX	9,828	+0.4% (YTD: -1.7%)
DFM	5,871	+0.3% (YTD: -2.9%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,721	+0.8% (YTD: -3.4%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.5% o/n	4% 1 yr
TASI	11,169	+0.4% (YTD: +6.5%)
EGX30	52,719	+0.6% (YTD: +26.0%)
S&P 500	7,174	+0.1% (YTD: +4.8%)
FTSE 100	10,321	-0.6% (YTD: +3.9%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,860	-0.4% (YTD: +1.1%)
Brent crude	USD 108.23	+2.8%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.51	-1.7%
Gold	USD 4,706	+0.3%
BTC	USD 77,047	-1.7% (YTD: -12.1%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.70	+3.1% (YTD: -1.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.77	-0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	18.02	-3.7%% (YTD: +24.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 770.4 mn. The index is down 2.9% YTD.

In the green: National International Holding Company (+14.7%), Gulf Financial Holding (+11.3%), and Ekttitab Holding (+4.3%).

In the red: Agility the Public Warehousing Company (-4.8%), Commercial Bank of Dubai (-3.5%), and Dewa (-1.8%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.4% on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai rose 0.8%.

CALENDAR

APRIL

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

28-29 Apr (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

MAY

4-7 May (Wednesday-Friday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

15-17 May (Friday-Sunday): Art Dubai, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, ICC Hall, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Desalination Forum, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent;
Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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