Non-oil business growth dips slightly in March

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Opec+ steady on voluntary production cuts + Al Mal Capital plans to acquire a Dubai school soon

Good morning, lovely people. We’re nearing the end of a long week, but we get a long holiday next week as our reward.

REMEMBER- The public and private sectors are both off starting next Monday, with the public sector off until the end of the week. The private sector’s holiday could either end on Thursday, 11 April, or Friday, 12 April, depending on the moon sighting next week which will decide when Ramadan will end.

So, when do we eat? Maghrib prayers are at 6:40pm in Dubai and 6:43pm in Abu Dhabi, and you have until 4:52am to hydrate and caffeinate ahead of Fajr in Abu Dhabi, and until 4:48am in Dubai.

THE BIG STORY here at homeis the expansion of the non-oil business sector in March, albeit at a slower pace amid Red Sea shipping disruptions and accumulating backlogs. We also have another M&A-heavy day for you, led by a key acquisition from ADQ’s Lunate of a 40% of Adnoc Oil Pipelines from BlackRock and KKR.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT-

#1- ⛅ WEATHER- Expect a partly cloudy day in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with temperatures hitting 30°C during the day before hitting a more humid 20°C in Abu Dhabi, and 21°C in Dubai, overnight. Coastal areas like Sila and Al Ruwais could see light rainfall.

#2- Domestic workers in Abu Dhabi can now renew ins. plans on the government’s Tamm platform, afterAbu Dhabi’s national ins. provider Daman rolled out the option for domestic workers who earn between AED 4k-5k, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. The new plan covers fines for delays in health ins. renewals and eliminates document submissions via digital identity linkages. Ins. policy renewals activate within 15 minutes of payment, with confirmation emails sent to customers. You can renew the basic plan here.

#3- Landlord looking to change rent in Dubai? You’ll need a legal order for that: Landlords in Dubai must obtain a legal order from the emirate’s rent dispute center before requesting a rent reevaluation from the Real Estate Regulatory Authority, according to Gulf News. This eliminates the need to pay fees to the Dubai Land Department for rental valuations.

#4- You can make one less interchange on the Dubai Metro Red Line: Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority has upgraded the timetable of the Dubai Metro Red Line with a new Y junction, set to go live from 15 April, it said in a statement. The junction allows trains to operate alternately from Centrepoint to UAE Exchange Station and Expo 2020 Station, and eliminates the need for passengers to switch trains at Jebel Ali Station.

#5- Own a family business? Get in touch with the Dubai Centre for Family Businesses about its corporate governance toolkit, which focuses on governance structures, governance frameworks, and key regulatory guidelines, reports the Dubai Media Office. The toolkits aim to “[encourage family businesses] to follow best practices in corporate governance that support their continuity and ensure the successful transition of leadership between generations,” said Mohammad Ali Rashed Lootah, Dubai Chambers CEO.

About the center: The Dubai Centre for Family Businesses was launched under the umbrella of Dubai Chambers in May 2023. Its role is to ensure the growth and long-term sustainability of family businesses in Dubai.

FAST FACT- Family-owned businesses account for 90% of all private-sector activity in Dubai, and contribute approximately 40% to the national GDP.

DATA POINT-

#1- Abu Dhabi saw AED 15.9 bn in real estate transactions in 1Q 2024, with 5,127 sales and mortgages, Wam reports. The Department of Municipalities and Transport's DARI platform reported 2,919 sales during the quarter, worth over AED 9.6 bn, including almost 1.2k completed units and 1.8k off-plan units. The emirate also saw some 2.2k mortgage transactions valued at AED 6.3 bn.

#2- Bank assets topped AED 4.1 bn in January, rising 12% y-o-y, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s banking indicators report (pdf). Total bank deposits grew 13.7% y-o-y, surging to AED 2.539 bn. Meanwhile, total investments made by UAE banks totaled AED 640 mn in January, up 19.45% y-o-y from January 2023. The banking sector booked AED 1.996 bn in gross credit, marking a 6.5% y-o-y growth. The private sector took out loans worth AED 7 bn in January, bringing the total private sector credit to AED 1.247 bn, growing 6% y-o-y compared to January last year.

#3- Funding for MENA-based startups fell 62% y-o-y in 1Q 2024 to USD 429 mn, raised through 129 rounds, Wamda reports. March investments jumped 186% m-o-m, with 54 transactions funneling in USD 254 mn to the region’s startups. Saudi startups led the funding race, snagging USD 198 mn across 25 transactions, thanks to the AI-focused event Leap, which took place in Riyadh last month. UAE-based startups came in second, with 12 startups securing USD 39 mn, while Egypt ranked third with USD 7 mn raised by eight startups.

#4- Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation (Empower) saw demand for its district cooling services grow 16% y-o-y in 2023, maintaining a steady upward trend that has seen demand grow 54% over the past five years, the company said in a press release (pdf). The firm holds an 80% market share in Dubai, driven by high occupancy rates in existing real estate projects and the addition of new mixed-use developments to its portfolio.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Dubai-based asset manager Al Mal Capital’s real estate investment trust (REIT) is planning to acquire a new school in Dubai within the next two months, and a hospital later in the year, Al Mal Capital MENA Direct Investments Director Sanjay Vig tells CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime; 3:06). Al Mal will fund the growth of its education and healthcare investments with its recent AED 180 mn capital increase, which brought the firm’s total capital to AED 514 mn. It also sets it up to hold nearly AED 1 bn in assets under management, he said.

REFRESHER- Al Mal Capital’s real estate investment trust (REIT) revealed plans in February to issue 400 mn new units at a price of AED 1.1 per unit, leading to a share capital increase of up to AED 440 mn if fully subscribed. The company said it would use the proceeds to execute its investment strategy (pdf), which is geared at diversifying the portfolio, with a minimum of 75% of the funds allocated in the UAE and up to 25% in the GCC and other countries.

Uh, Enterprise? What’s a REIT? A real estate investment trust is a mutual fund that owns, finances or manages income-generating real estate assets — commercial, residential, office, and other properties. Some will also invest in real-estate-related securities or private equity transactions that are directly related to the industry.

The REIT could kick off another capital increase in 4Q 2024, with plans to up the number of units available to 1.5-1.8 bn units by year end, Vig adds.

ALSO- The REIT is planning to begin gradually investing in the industrials sector after making further healthcare and education acquisitions, he said.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The scramble to make sense of (and money with) generative AI dominates headlines on an otherwise quiet morning in the global business press. Here’s what you need to know:

Google may choose to charge for AI-powered search. It would be the first time the group’s core search product goes behind a paywall.
How one tech skeptic decided AI might be good for the middle class. Part of his answer: It’s going to help some of the less skilled knowledge workers do better work — without replacing them
Will AI boost productivity? Companies sure hope so, but it’s unclear whether the impact of AI is already showing up in US productivity data.

Paid ChatGPT customers can now use AI to edit DALL-E images and add elements or change-up the style.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- Men at Goldman Sachs’ primary UK unit make 54% more than women — and the gap has widened in the past 12 months, the FT writes. Expect the story to have legs: GS is publishing its gender pay gap report today.

OIL WATCH-

Surprising no one, Opec+ ministers left voluntary production cuts unchanged, according to a statement yesterday. The panel met online yesterday to review the cuts and welcomed Iraq and Kazakhstan’s pledge to get in line. The group also welcomed Russia’s voluntary adjustments to be based on production instead of exports in the second quarter of 2024. The meeting came weeks after Opec+ members, led by Saudi and Russia, extended voluntary curbs that will remain in effect through June 2024.

In context: Oil prices are at just about their highest level in nearly six months at almost USD 90 per barrel.

UAE’s non-oil sector continues to expand at a softer pace in March

Non-oil business activity continued to expand in March, albeit at a slower pace, as backlogs hit their highest level since June 2018, according to S&P Global’s purchasing manager’s index (pdf). The index dipped to 56.9 in March, down from 57.1 in February, remaining well above the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction.

“The overall picture for the UAE non-oil private sector remained rosy at the end of the first quarter. The latest PMI reading of 56.9 in March signaled a robust upturn in business conditions, with order book inflows and activity levels still growing sharply,” said Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence David Owen.

New order volumes rose on the back of higher client spending and marketing campaigns. Consequently, output activity increased and hiring accelerated for the second consecutive month as firms raised staffing levels to cover the influx of new orders.

Backlogs accumulated at their fastest pace in 15 years as businesses struggled to complete their order books while grappling with surging client demand, which “placed great pressure on administration teams,” resulting in payment and paperwork delays.

Red Sea disruptions are to blame: Businesses’ delayed deliveries were compounded by the Red Sea shipping crisis which, “[eroded] suppliers’ ability to deliver items on time,” Owen explained, adding that “while the surge in backlogs is concerning as an indicator of business health, the pent-up demand should support activity growth for even longer once these issues are resolved.” Still, firms reported the weakest supplier performance in a year.

Business sentiment hit a six-month high and rose to its second-highest level in four years driven by the robust demand, high business incomes and marketing plans.

FROM THE REGION-

Saudi’s non-oil business activity stood at 57.0 in March, down from 57.2 in the previous month, remaining in growth territory on the back of strong demand, according to its PMI (pdf).

Egypt’s PMI (pdf) declined at a slower pace in March, rising slightly to 47.6 in March, up from 47.1 in February. This indicates a “softer but still-solid deterioration,” due to persistent currency challenges and pressure stemming from disruption in the Red Sea.

Lunate snags 40% of Adnoc Oil Pipelines from BlackRock and KKR in multi-bn USD deal

Alternative investment firm Lunate has acquired a 40% stake in Adnoc’s oil pipeline asset network from US private equity giants BlackRock and KKR & Co, a Lunate press release reads. No details were disclosed about the terms or value of the acquisition, but Bloomberg previously reported the stake could potentially cost more than USD 4 bn, including debt.

The details: Lunate's Long Term Capital Fund acquired a 100% stake in a special purpose vehicle co-owned by BlackRock and KKR managed funds.

BlackRock and KKR were trying to exit the pipeline for some time now: The private equity giants were in final talks to sell their combined 40% stake in Adnoc Oil Pipelines to ADQ during July of last year. Both companies had purchased their stake back in 2019 in what was the first investment made by foreign asset managers in a state-owned oil producer in the region.

More on Adnoc’s Oil Pipelines: The oil giant operates 17 onshore and 5 offshore pipelines spanning 806 km, with a total capacity of 18 mn barrels per day, according to Reuters. Adnoc leases their ownership interest in those pipelines over a 23-year period.

OTHER M&A NEWS-

Turkish household manufacturer and Beko parent company Arçelik has completed its acquisition of Whirlpool’s Middle East and North Africa operations, including in the UAE and Morocco, according to a statement. The acquisition will help Arçelik expand its footprint in the region, and will see it own the Whirlpool, Ariston, Indesit, Hotpoint, Hotpoint-Ariston, Bauknecht and Ignis brands in the region.

Arçelik also finalized an agreement with Whirlpool EMEA resulting in the creation of Beko Europe, in which it owns a 75% stake, while Whirlpool owns the remaining shares. These two transactions boost Arçelik’s operations to cover 57 markets with some 55k employees, and are expected to ramp up annual production capacity.

Saudi telco Zain Group’s digital solutions arm, ZainTech, is set to acquire Dubai-based regional Amazon Web Services (AWS) advanced consulting partner Citrus Consulting after inking a share purchase agreement with its parent company Redington, it said in a statement.

The details: The acquisition will integrate Citrus Consulting’s nearly 30 AWS-certified engineers and client portfolio with ZainTech’s Cloud Center of Excellence for AWS, enhancing ZainTech’s cloud-based digital solutions offerings across advisory, infrastructure management, application modernization, and data and AI services.

ALSO-Agthia Group has completed the integration of healthy snacks producer BMB Group under its umbrella, according to a company statement. The acquisition was completed in December 2021, with the past two years dedicated to transferring knowledge and expertise and paving the way for Agthia's snacking division to take full operational control of BMB, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf).

**This story was amended to remove mention of Lunate being backed by ADQ.

Fajr Capital-led consortium snaps up 65% stake in Indian healthcare giant Aster’s GCC unit

Dubai-based hospital, clinic, and pharma operator Aster DM Healthcare has finalized the separation of its Gulf and India business units, selling stakes in each unit, it said in a statement. The transactions are part of a company strategy to expand in the GCC and India under independent entities, and saw Aster Aster sell 65% of its stake in its GCC arm to a consortium led by Abu Dhabi Investment Council-backed private equity firm Fajr Capital, and including Al Dhow Holding, Hana Investment, Wafra International Investment, and the Emirates Investment Authority.

Background: The company agreed to sell a stake in its Gulf division for USD 1.1 bn to the consortium back in November 2023. Aster additionally agreed to give up a 30% stake in its India business for USD 300 mn, Reuters previously reported. The company’s founders, the Moopen family, now retains a 41.88% stake in its Indian unit, according to the statement.

What’s next for Aster’s GCC unit? The transaction values the GCC unit at approximately USD 1 bn, reports the National. Founding chairman Azad Moopen and managing director Alisha Moopen will lead the company’s remaining 35% stake in the unit.

Expansion in the Kingdom next… and an IPO? Aster plans to use Fajr Capital’s expertise to help it expand its physical and digital footprint in the GCC market, with a specific market strategy set for Saudi Arabia. Aster is also mulling a dual listing of the unit in Saudi Arabia and the UAE sometime in the next three to five years,

Aster’s India unit: Following the sale, Aster’s Indian unit, led by CEO Nitish Shetty, will add 1.7k beds, in a bid to become one of the top three hospitals in South Asia.

About Aster DM Healthcare: Founded in India in 1987 as a single clinic, Aster DM’s portfolio of healthcare businesses has since expanded in India and the Gulf. Following the split, the healthcare giant’s operations in the Gulf include 15 hospitals, 117 clinics, and 285 pharmacies.

ADVISORS- Our friends at HSBC Middle East are sell-side advisors on the spinoff of the GCC business alongside Moelis & Company and Credit Suisse. You can check out the investor presentation for the spinoff here (pdf).

AD Ports will develop, manage, and operate Iraq’s Grand Faw Port

AD Ports to develop Iraq’s Grand Faw Port: AD Ports Group inked a preliminary agreement with the General Company for Ports of Iraq, to form a joint venture to develop Iraq’s Grand Faw port and economic zone, as well as operate, finance, manage and operate the projects, according to a statement. The agreement also involves potential investments — as well as management, operation and development contracts — for future projects in other Iraqi cities.

There’s a lot we don’t know: Neither the timeline for the project, nor the details around the development of the port or the value of investments AD Ports is expected to pour into it, have been disclosed.

Background: The company had signed an MoU with the Iraqi port operator to boost cooperation in maritime and transportation in 2021.

What’s next? The two companies will work on feasibility studies and explore investments for the project, the statement said.

About the port: The long-delayed Grand Faw Port, set to be the largest in the Middle East, is one of several projects Iraq is working on in hopes of creating a shorter corridor between the Middle East and Europe that bypasses the Suez Canal. It also forms a key part of the ambitious Development Road project the country is planning, which will link the port to Turkey’s border. South Korean firm Daewoo is working on the construction of the port’s five berths under a USD 2.7 bn contract.

AD Ports has been on a roll: The Emirati port operator is present in more than 40 countries, and last month acquired a majority stake in a dry port in Georgia. It also inked agreements to develop ports in India and Pakistan earlier in February.

Statevolt to launch battery gigafactory in Ras Al Khaimah

California-based battery manufacturer Statevolt is set to establish a USD 3.2 bn battery cell gigafactory in Ras Al Khaimah, according to a statement. The factory, spanning 60 hectares in the Ras Al Khaimah Economic Zone, will begin production with semi-solid state battery cells, and later transition to solid state technology as it reaches peak capacity. Construction will begin upon permit approval, with Statevolt targeting first-line production by the end of 2026.

More on the project: The factory will target key export markets in Africa, India, the UAE, and the Middle East where energy storage solutions are crucial for grid stability, renewable energy integration, and energy efficiency to reach renewable energy goals. The annual production capacity is estimated to be 40GWh once fully operational.

About Statevolt: Established in 2021, Statevolt is building a battery factory in California that can adapt to different battery technologies and working with industry leaders and local communities to implement a modular and scalable approach to battery cell production, according to their website.

A lot of battery action for the UAE: Schneider Electric signed an MoU with the UAE's energy storage system manufacturer Volts to establish a battery energy storage systems (BESS) industrial facility in Abu Dhabi in December. The UAE's first battery recycling plant Dubatt was also inaugurated in Dubai Industrial City in February. Emirates Water and Electricity Company invited developers to submit an expression of interest for the development of a 400 MW BESS power project last month.

DCT Abu Dhabi earmarks USD 10 bn for infrastructure investment

Abu Dhabi’s Department of Culture and Tourism (DCT) is planning to spend USD 10 bn on infrastructure as part of the emirate’s new tourism strategy, DCT Chairman Mohamed Al Mubarak told The National. Infrastructure investment will be geared towards bumping up the number of hotel rooms in the emirate to 52k from 34k by 2030.

ICYMI- The Abu Dhabi Executive Council approved the emirate’s tourism strategy for 2030 at a meeting last week, as it looks to almost double the number of visitors to 39.3 mn and boost the sector’s contribution to non-oil GDP to AED 90 bn per year by the end of the decade.

The details: The tourism strategy comprises 26 initiatives across four areas, including city activation, promotion and marketing, infrastructure and mobility, and visa, and licensing and regulation, he said. DCT will allocate USD 1 bn towards events and marketing spend, and more than USD 10 bn to infrastructure — including museums, theme parks and hospitality — from now to 2030.

Key upcoming projects: The authority plans to open and expand several museums and theme parks across the emirate, and upgrade Al Ain and Saadiyat Island’s offerings with a new zoo, cultural district, and other tourism venues. To increase the number of hotel rooms in Abu Dhabi, DCT will add new hotel chains, including Nammos and Mondrian, and four- and five-star beach destination hotels.

The authority will hold more roadshows across Asia, Europe, Africa, and North America, aiming to expand its tourism source markets to 26, from the current 11, Al Mubarak adds.

The Gulf is helping boost tourism: In December, GCC member states polished a Schengen-style unified tourist visa that would allow tourists to enter the six member states using a single unified visa starting sometime in 2024 or 2025.

EasyLease acquires majority stake in United Trans

UAE-based EasyLease snaps up majority stake in United Trans: UAE-based International Holding Company (IHC) subsidiary and integrated mobility solutions provider EasyLease has acquired a 60% stake in UAE-based Alserkal Group subsidiary and transportation technology solutions provider United Trans, at an undisclosed sum, according to a press release (pdf). The move comes as EasyLease looks to boost its foothold in the regional smart mobility and railway sectors, the statement said.

What they said: The two companies look to collaborate to “deliver enhanced mobility transportation and rail solutions that meet the evolving needs of our customers,” EasyLease CEO Ahmad Al Sadah said. The partnership will also enable the pair to unlock new avenues for growth in the GCC and regional transport sectors, Al Sadah also said.

About United Trans: Founded in 2008, the outfit provides technology-enabled mobility transport solutions for the rail, aviation, and marine sectors, while also supplying security screening solutions, and maintaining an emphasis on rail and smart mobility, the statement said. United Trans has taken up landmark projects in the GCC, including Dubai Metro, Dubai Tram, Dubai Airport People Mover, and the Doha Metro.

EasyLease has been on an acquisition spree: The firm obtained a 60% stake in Ripe, which offers food truck, drive through, and events management services, in December 2023. EasyLease also acquired a 60% stake in UAE-based electric charger manufacturing and installation outfit Fully Charged, that same month.

GBM appoints Bassam Rached a technology general manager

Dubai-based digital solutions provider Gulf Business Machines(GBM) has named Bassam Rached (LinkedIn) as its new technology general manager, according to a press release.

Rached enters the role after having held several senior roles at GBM, including serving as the IBM Business Unit Director at GBM. With over 20 years of experience in the IT and tech solutions sector in the Middle East, Rached will be in charge of the development and implementation of GBM’s technology strategy in the region.

Google Cloud appointed Noor Al Sulaiti (LinkedIn) as its security business development and government relations head for the Middle East, Turkey, and Africa region (META), a press release reads. Al Sulaiti was previously CEO at Ooreedo Oman and Starlink Qatar.

Gulf carriers are giving European airlines a run for their money. PLUS: UAE President’s new Chelsea mansion gets a mention

It’s a relatively slow day for the UAE in the foreign press, with just two stories worth noting:

UAE’s state-backed airlines Emirates and Etihad are among Middle Eastern carriers to emerge as “very attractive” competitors to European airlines, offering cheaper fares and routing through their hub airports, as European airlines “lose connectivity” to Asia due to the slow reopening of Asian economies post-pandemic and restrictions on flying over Russian airspace, the Financial Times says.

President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s snag of a GBP 65 mn (USD 81.7 mn) mansion in Chelsea, London, got the spotlight treatment in Bloomberg.

Al Dar Properties break ground on logistics hub in Dubai South

LOGISTICS-

Construction starts on Dubai’s first build-to-lease logistics facility: Dubai South and Abu Dhabi-based real estate developer Al Dar Properties have broken ground on the first build-to-lease logistics facility in Dubai, according to a statement. The facility, covering 24k sqm, is set to be completed by the end of 2024. The pair entered into a JV agreement in February to develop the Dubai South logistics facility, which is situated near Al Maktoum International Airport and neighbors global giants like Amazon, Noon, and DHL.

NON-BANKING FINANCIAL SERVICES-

Payment gateway solutions provider Telr obtained preliminary approval for the retail payment services and card schemes license from the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates, according to a press release. Telr aims to support businesses and consumers with customized payment solutions. The company is focused on secure payment options and real-time monitoring to simplify e-commerce processes and ensure smooth transactions for its clients.

BANKING-

Indians in the UAE can now make easier UPI-enabled payments: Our friends at Mashreq will integrate applications that use India’s instant payment system, United Payment Interface, into its NeoPay platform, making it easier for Indian tourists in the UAE to make payments in the country, according to a press release. This comes as part of a partnership with NPCI International Payments, which will allow Indians in the UAE to use the PhonePe app to make payments.

INVESTMENT-

Mubadala to help finance Endeavor’s delisting: US equity firm and majority shareholder Silver lake will take talent and entertainment agency Endeavor Group Holdings private for USD 13 bn, Reuters reports. The financing will come from a combination of new and reinvested equity from Silver Lake, supplemented by capital from investors such as Mubadala and DFO Management.

TRADE-

Sharjah, India to boost trade: Sharjah Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Indian Business and Professional Council held a business meeting yesterday to ramp up economic cooperation and trade between Sharjah and India, reports Wam. The meeting aimed to explore investment windows for Sharjah-based Indian companies in the energy, maritime industries, tourism, real estate, and contracting sectors, and facilitate sustainable partnerships.

Fast fact: Some 17.5k Indian companies operate in Sharjah. The Sharjah Chamber inaugurated the Indian Business and Professional Council back in February 2023 to foster communication between these and investors.

CLIMATE-

USD 1.2 mn pledged for climate security in Afghanistan: The UAE inked a USD 1.2 mn partnership with the United Nations Climate Security Mechanism (CSM), which agrees to provide an annual contribution of USD 600k to the advisor’s position at the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) for two years, according to a statement by the Foreign Affairs Ministry. The UNAMA assesses and manages climate-related security risks in Afghanistan, one of the top 10 climate-vulnerable countries. The UAE is the first donor from the Global South to contribute to the CSM.

Traders don’t know why gold is on a tear

Gold hit another record high yesterday, hitting USD 2,299.70 in after-hours trading after the US Federal Reserve signaled it would still probably push ahead with rate cuts later this yea.

But longtime market watchers are finding it hard to interpret what drove a 7% gain in the past 10 days or so, the Financial Times writes.

“The quietest, most confusing rally”: Pundits the FT spoke with say none of the factors that have driven the metal’s bull run in the past year and a half are in play now. “Those include record levels of central bank buying, Chinese households looking for havens for their money or the war in Ukraine and the Middle East.”

So, what could it be? There’s absolutely no consensus. Possibilities include:

A move into gold as a hedge against volatility (tense elections around the world this year, Chinese rhetoric on Taiwan, uncertainty about the regional banking industry in the US);
Momentum traders piling into the asset class as it continued to climb;
Retail “stealth buyers,” whose transactions are more difficult to track (think: heavy retail demand in countries like China and Egypt).

So is gold going to tumble? It’s a split decision. Some pundits worry that if they don’t understand what’s driving the market, it’s a sign we’re due for a correction. A Standard Chartered analyst, on the other hand, says, “It does look like we have new [durable] appetite in the gold market. There are too many unknown events that investors want to hedge for,” she said, citing elections, risks of conflict escalation or the return of a banking crisis.

INTEREST RATE WATCH-

Rate watchers on both sides of the Atlantic were reading the sheep’s entrails yesterday, parsing Eurozone inflation data and Fedspeak for signs of when we might see rate cuts in advanced economies.

In Europe: Inflation is expected to fall 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% in March on average across the Eurozone, according to preliminary estimates released yesterday by the EU statistics agency Eurostat. Falling inflation will bolster expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates as early as June, but not at next week’s meeting.

In Amreeka: Jay Powell says “it is too soon to say whether the recent [inflation] readings represent more than just a bump. We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2%.” We should see rate cuts this year, the commentocracy thinks, but it’s anyone’s guess when.

THE MARKETS THIS MORNING-

The Kospi and Nikkei are both up in early trading this morning, but markets are closed in Shanghai and Hong Kong as China observes the Qingming festival. It’s also a national holiday in Taiwan. US and European futures inched higher overnight. The Dow has edged downward in the last three trading sessions, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 inched up yesterday.

Sound smart: The Qingming festival is sometimes called the “tomb-sweeping festival” in the Western press. Families get together to spruce up their ancestors’ graves and will traditionally leave commemorative offerings including incense sticks, flowers, folder paper creations, and food.

ADX	9,209	-0.5% (YTD: -3.9%)
DFM	4,240	-0.7% (YTD: +4.4%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	3,712	-0.8% (YTD: -4.2%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	5.1% o/n	5.3% 1 yr
TASI	12,622	+1.2% (YTD: +5.5%)
EGX30	27,937	0.0% (YTD: +12.2%)
S&P 500	5,211	+0.1% (YTD: +9.3%)
FTSE 100	7,937	0.0% (YTD: +2.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,069	+0.5% (YTD: +12.1%)
Brent crude	USD 89.35	+0.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 1.84	+0.1%
Gold	USD 2,3001	0.0%
BTC	USD 65,984	+0.3% (YTD: +56.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM fell 0.7% yesterday on turnover of AED 405.9 mn. The index is up 4.4% YTD.

In the green: National General Ins. (+14.6%), Al Salam Sudan (+7.3%) and Watania International Holding (+2.6%).

In the red: Unikai Foods (-9.3%), Commercial Bank of Dubai (-5.3%) and Orascom Construction (-3.7%).

Over on the ADX, the index closed down 0.5% on turnover of AED 993.3 mn. The index is Down 3.9% YTD.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Waha Capital’s general assembly agreed to pay AED 188.4 mn in dividends for 2023, amounting to 10 fils per share, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf).

Response Plus Medical Services’ board proposed a dividend distribution of AED 20 mn for 2023, equivalent to AED 0.10 per share, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The decision is pending approval at the company’s upcoming AGM on 26 April.

Most watched shows in Ramadan 2024

Fasting isn’t the only shared experience we look forward to during Ramadan. Beyond the spiritual reflection lies another staple of the holy month: Entertainment. Publicist Inc., a comms and publicity agency based in Egypt, compiled data (pdf) from 24 sources and 34 reports to analyze entertainment habits in the MENA region, giving us insight into an season-specific industry that costs USD bns annually.

What have we been watching? Five shows streaming on Shahid dominated the small screens in the UAE this year, led by the Kuwaiti Zawga Wahida La Takfi. Egyptian TV shows Neama El Avocato, El Atawla, and Ramez Gab Mil Akhir also made the cut, as did the Syrian Wlad Badeea.

CALENDAR

APRIL

14 March-14 April (Thursday-Sunday): Dakakeen Festival, Khorfakkan Amphitheatre.

21 March-10 April (Thursday-Wednesday): Ramadan Nights 2024, Expo Centre Sharjah.

26 March-21 July (Tuesday-Sunday): ‘From Kalila wa Dimna to La Fontaine: Traveling through Fables’ exhibition, Louvre Abu Dhabi.

4-8 April (Wednesday- Monday): The Mina Cup, JA sports center.

8-12 April (Monday-Friday): Eid Al Fitr, public holiday.

15-16 April (Monday-Tuesday): Blockchain Life Forum 2024, Festival Arena, Dubai.

15 April (Monday): Dubai Metro Red Line Y junction goes live.

17 April (Wednesday): Machines Can See, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

16-18 April (Tuesday-Thursday): World Future Energy Summit, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre.

16-18 April (Tuesday-Thursday): EcoWaste Exhibition and Forum, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre

16-18 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Coatings Show, Dubai World Trade Centre.

16-18 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Centre.

18-19 April (Thursday-Friday): TOKEN2049, Madinat Jumeirah in Dubai.

22-24 April (Monday-Wednesday): Emirates Skills National Competition

23-25 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Connecting Green Hydrogen MENA, Madinat Jumeirah Conference Centre.

23-25 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Argus Fertilizer Asia Conference, Abu Dhabi.

23-25 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Domotex Middle East 2024, Dubai World Trade Centre.

24-26 April (Wednesday-Friday): Global Education & Training Exhibition.

24 April-1 May (Wednesday-Wednesday): Abu Dhabi Mobility Week.

24-25 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Ras Al Khaimah Investment and Trade Summit, Rak Exhibition Centre.

25 April (Thursday): Bayanat AI and Yahsat simultaneous general assembly meetings

25-26 April (Thursday-Friday): DRIFTx, Abu Dhabi.

29-30 April (Monday- Tuesday): Dubai World Ins. Congress, Atlantis, The Palm.

29 April- 5 May (Friday-Friday): The Abu Dhabi International Book Fair, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC).

MAY

1-2 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Capital Markets Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai

1-5 May (Wednesday-Sunday): The Sharjah Animation Conference, Expo Centre Sharjah.

6-7 May (Monday-Tuesday): Dubai Fintech Summit 2024, Madinat Jumeirah.

6-9 May (Monday-Thursday): The Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

7-9 May (Tuesday-Thursday): AIM Congress 2024, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Innovative Finance Expo, Jumeirah Emirates Towers.

8-12 May (Wednesday-Sunday): Schmetterling Annual Conference, Al Ain and Abu Dhabi.

14-15 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai World Trade Centre.

14-16 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Centre.

15 May (Wednesday): HFM Summit, DIFC.

18-26 May (Saturday-Sunday): Abu Dhabi Comedy Week, Abu Dhabi.

19 May (Sunday): InvestopiaEurope, Milan.

19 May (Sunday): RTA’s Deadline for bids to design and build Dubai Metro's Blue Line.

21-23 May (Tuesday-Thursday):International Exhibition for National Security & Resilience, ADNEC Centre Abu Dhabi.

24-25 May (Friday-Saturday): Baby Expo, Dubai World Trade Centre.

30 May (Thursday):Abu Dhabi Family Office Summit, Saadiyat Rotana Resort, Abu Dhabi.

JUNE

2-4 June (Sunday-Tuesday): The World Air Transport Summit and International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s annual general meeting, Dubai.

4-6 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Hotel Show, Dubai World Trade Centre.

4-6 June (Tuesday-Thursday): INDEX, Dubai World Trade Centre.

4-6 June (Tuesday-Thursday): WORKSPACE, Dubai World Trade Centre.

4-6 June (Tuesday-Thursday): Leisure Show, Dubai World Trade Centre.

15 June (Saturday): Arafat day, national holiday.

16-18 June (Sunday-Tuesday): Eid Al-Adha, national holiday.

JULY

7 July (Sunday): Islamic new year, national holiday.

SEPTEMBER

9-11 September (Monday-Wednesday): World Utilities Congress, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 September (Saturday-Monday): World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) Biennial General Meeting, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

30-1 November (Wednesday-Friday): World Cities Cultural Summit, Dubai.

NOVEMBER

11-14 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC, Abu Dhabi.

11-14 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi.

11-14 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Decarbonisation Accelerator, Abu Dhabi.

27-28 November (Wednesday-Thursday): RAK Energy Summit, Al Hamra International Exhibition and Conference Centre, Ras Al Khaimah.

DECEMBER

2-3 December (Monday-Tuesday): National Day, public holiday.

9-10 December (Saturday-Sunday): The Bitcoin Mena Conference, Adnec Centre Abu Dhabi.

10-12 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Business Aviation, Dubai World Central.

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