THIS MORNING: Lawyers told to come back to the office as ceasefire holds (for now) + Dubai Investments might push IPO to the fall

Good morning, lovely people. We’re nearly at the two-month mark of the war, and US-Iran negotiations have stalled. Talks scheduled for this weekend were delayed after both sides canceled their planned trips to Pakistan, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded by both the US and Iran.

Here at home, though, things look very nearly back to normal. Aside from the UAE flags flooding the streets and the few hotels and restaurants closing up shop, most schools and offices are now back and traffic is very close to pre-war levels.

Return-to-office pressure is starting to hit: International law firms are pushing staff to return to offices in Dubai and Abu Dhabi as the ceasefire holds, the Financial Times reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. US firms like Jones Day, Cleary Gottlieb, and — we’re told — Gibson Dunn have asked some employees to resume in-person work as soon as next week, with some firms offering to cover relocation costs.

Many offices have returned to pre-war operations. And with business largely back to usual, some clients now want advisers physically present, as remote attendance is no longer deemed sufficient, one partner said.

Companies also might not be able to afford people staying abroad too long: If workers stay abroad longer than they should, activities like negotiating or concluding contracts or conducting business operations from a foreign location could trigger a “permanent establishment” status, leading to corporate tax liabilities in the country where they’re located.

On the flip side: Some — in the UK, for example — also face tax liabilities if they stay long enough in their home countries to qualify as a resident, with experts telling The National that UK non-residents can become tax resident after 183 days, or potentially as few as 90-120 days, depending on family, housing, and work ties.

For those who run their own businesses (whether in manufacturing or running a startup in Sharjah), there’s welcome news from the government. Package after package of support are being unveiled by the week, with the latest being a AED 1 bn “resilience” fund targeting the localization of critical industries, including food. We have more on that in this morning’s Big Story Today.

Plus: A major acquisition of a stake in Bugatti is being backed by recently launched private equity firm BlueFive Capital.

WEATHER- It’s full-on summer: Look for a high of 37°C and low of 27°C in Dubai today, while in Abu Dhabi, temperatures will peak at 36°C, with a low of 26°C.

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From the Dept. of Contingency Planning

UAE moves to future-proof jet fuel flows: Dubai state energy group Enoc and UAE fuel retailer Emarat signed an agreement to strengthen business continuity for Jet A-1 aviation fuel supply, according to a Dubai Media Office statement. The plan sets procedures for pipeline transfers, truck loading, recovery protocols, and emergency response across the country’s key aviation hubs, alongside regular drills and equipment readiness checks.

The move lands as concerns around jet fuel security have climbed sharply. Conflict-driven disruption around the Strait of Hormuz briefly shut Dubai’s hub in March and sent jet fuel prices up 103%, while Iata warned (pdf) the crisis had exposed “deep vulnerabilities in jet fuel security.”

It’s not just jet fuel, it’s also ships: Abu Dhabi Ship Building — part of Edge group — said in a statement (pdf) some of its delivery timelines would likely be delayed due to the “prioritization of support to the UAE Armed Forces and the National Guard considering the prevailing regional circumstances,” as well as the possibility of prevailing supply chain disruptions.

Why this matters: Export orders make up 70% of the company’s annual revenue, with the UAE Navy accounting for the rest. The company has contracts with Kuwait, Angola, and Indonesia.

Deliveries may shift, but the business is not flashing red (yet): The company says commercial operations are still running without material disruption, while its business continuity plans remain in force.

… And new supply chain routes are in the works: Etihad Rail is continuing to test new supply chain routes as the war and wider regional conflict disrupt traditional Gulf shipping lanes. The company completed the country’s first rail transport of finished passenger vehicles for an automotive dealership, moving a shipment of Nissan cars from Fujairah’s east-coast ports to the dry port at Abu Dhabi’s Industrial City in partnership with Al Masaood Automobiles, according to an Abu Dhabi Media Office statement.

REMEMBER- Etihad Rail has been stepping up the load: The operator said it moved 459k tons of cargo at the start of March while adding five extra services to east-coast ports and Al Ghail Dry Port as inland corridors picked up the slack. Authorities also trialed an Etihad Rail passenger service from Al Ghuwaifat on the Saudi border to Al Faya in Abu Dhabi earlier in the conflict, effectively testing a western land bridge for people and cargo linked to Khalifa Port.

Other inbound routes are accelerating too: The UAE has been quietly widening alternative trade corridors as Hormuz risk reshaped freight flows. We’ve already seen NRTC lift imports by 50% across land, sea, and air routes and Lulu charter more cargo flights into the UAE and Kuwait, while east-coast ports, bonded trucking, and rail freight absorb diverted loads.

Watch this space

Dubai Investments might push DIP IPO to the fall: Dubai Investments could list the shares of its real estate unit, Dubai Investments Park (DIP), on the DFM in October, pushing its earlier target of February to the fall — in line with what analysts have told us about the regional IPO landscape. Dubai Investments CEO Khalid Bin Kalban told Zawya that shareholders will decide by May 15 on how to move ahead. The company had planned to list a 25% stake in DIP.

Forcing the market’s hand: Valuation remains stable around AED 10.8-11 bn, Bin Kalban said, arguing the asset’s local exposure has shielded it from regional volatility, with the group still looking to offload a roughly 24% stake, he told CNBC Arabia.

About DIP: DIP is one of Dubai’s largest mixed-use developments, spanning roughly 2.3k hectares and operating at around 90% occupancy.

IN CONTEXT- Real estate equities were among the most exposed to swings in sentiment and demand, making a DIP IPO in May risky. Both the ADX and the DFM saw their real estate indices shed roughly 27% in March, with some of the biggest names closing in the red. However, they have been recovering some of their losses since the ceasefire, with the DFM’s real estate index up 5.7% this month.

There are more potential IPOs on the table at Dubai Investments: Dubai Investments is keeping its multi-year listing queue intact, with four subsidiaries already flagged for potential IPOs. The pipeline includes district cooling firm Emicool and Al Zujaj Holding (Emirates Glass), which is eyeing a 2027 listing, assuming earnings hold up.

ADVISORS- Emirates NBD Capital, HSBC, Citigroup, Arqaam Capital, and EFG Hermes are in talks to advise on the potential IPO.

DIPLOMACY — UK-UAE ties get a wider mandate: The UK and the UAE formally agreed to a new cooperation framework spanning defense, trade and investment, AI, energy transition, judicial cooperation, and illicit finance, according to a joint statement issued after UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper’s first official visit to the UAE.

The geopolitical backdrop was hard to miss: Both sides condemned Iranian attacks on the UAE and the wider region while backing freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. They signaled that the broadened framework is also aimed at mitigating supply-chain and energy disruption risks after recent turmoil exposed the chokepoint’s global importance.

Only up from here: The two sides said the framework provides “an ambitious basis to deliver a long-term bilateral partnership and strengthened mutual resilience.”

Data point

USD 106 bn — that’s the value of Gulf-backed transactions across North America and Europe currently in limbo since the war forced investors in the region to revisit their strategies, according to Pitchbook data cited by the Financial Times.

Rising defense spending and energy disruption risks are pushing governments to prioritize “domestic investment, defense industrial capacity, and food security” over assets like venture capital or entertainment, says Ana Nacvalovaite, SWFs specialist at Oxford University’s Kellogg College.

Still, the mega-M&A is not dead: High-profile transactions like the USD 110 bn Paramount-Skydance and the USD 55 bn Electronic Arts takeovers reportedly remain on track.

IN CONTEXT- Six of the world’s 10 heftiest SWFs are based in our part of the world, controlling nearly USD 5 tn in assets. Even marginal shifts in their allocation can filter through to global M&A pipelines that depend on their anchor investments.

The big story abroad

While the latest developments from yesterday’s shooting at the White House correspondents’ dinner are dominating the front pages, a few other stories have caught our attention:

Our daily update on ceasefire negotiations: After the latest round of discussions between the US and Iran fell through, US President Donald Trump appears to have left the ball in Tehran’s court, saying Iran can reach out by phone to continue negotiations.

And in markets: Bullish sentiment over AI appears to have pushed equities to record highs. Since the outbreak of the regional war, 82 stocks, most of which are tied to the AI boom, have posted gains above 10%, which the Wall Street Journal attributed to investor confidence in data-center construction and infrastructure providers like Nvidia.

And speaking of AI: According to new reports, AI may end up costing businesses more than human labor, with computing costs exceeding salaries in some cases. Firms like Uber are seeing AI costs skyrocket, with some estimates placing global IT spending at USD 6.3 tn in 2026 — a 13% y-o-y jump.

In the (shrinking?) world of human achievement, Kenyan athlete Sabastian Sawe madehistory yesterday as the first runner to ever finish a competitive marathon in under two hours.

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