HNWI haven status hangs in the balance

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Could Egypt lease Red Sea crude storage to AD Ports? + Is Mubadala selling off Brazil’s second-largest refinery?

Good morning, lovely people, and happy hump day. Today, we’re looking at how the UAE’s position as a high-net-worth individuals’ darling could be changing this year.

The story is not straightforward: Despite many having left and large outflows expected, there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how permanent their exits are, and whether inquiries and contingency planning are more about optionality than anything else, analysts tell us. We dive into this in this morning’s Big Story Today.

Meanwhile, business sentiment in the UAE and Saudi Arabia is holding strong, despite geopolitical turmoil, according to an HSBC global business leaders survey. One major finding is that 93% of the surveyed investors plan to boost cross-border trade or investment over the next five years. We have more on this below.

PSA

Nurseries will begin reopening their doors this week, according to an X post from authorities. Facilities in commercial locations and government premises will be back first, while other nurseries will shift to the home-based nursery service operating model for now.

Look out for updates on schools and universities today, authorities said. So far, schools and universities in Dubai are set to remain remote until at least 17 April.

WEATHER- It’s another breezy day, with a chance of light rainfall and blowing winds west and south of the country. Look for a high of 29°C in Dubai and a low of 21°C, and a high of 31°C and low of 22°C if you’re in Abu Dhabi.

Watch this space

LOGISTICS — Egypt could potentially lease crude storage on the Red Sea to AD Ports, Asharq Business reports, citing a government official. Talks are underway to rent out warehouses for crude oil and refined products — with both sides aiming to close before the end of 2Q.

What’s on the table? Negotiations are pinning down the number of storage units, where they sit, and how they’re priced, Asharq said. Monthly and annual leases are on the table.

Why this matters: With flows through Hormuz disrupted, regional logistics is short on routes and long on stranded barrels — with onshore stocks rising by 20 mn barrels in the region — shifting value from transit to storage. Egypt, meanwhile, has around 29 mn barrels of spare storage across its main ports, making it a favorable option for traders.

Inventory is already on the market: Egypt offered 10 crude and petroleum storage facilities for lease on the Red Sea, aiming to attract oil deliveries from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar, while doubling storage capacity at its Sumed- and Ras Badran-associated facilities, a senior government official previously told us.

What’s the latest on Hormuz anyway? So far, movement has continued to trickle through the Strait of Hormuz despite the US blockade, with some heading to the UAE. A US-sanctioned Chinese tanker has passed through the Strait of Hormuz since US President Donald Trump’s blockade began, according to shipping data. The tanker was heading to the UAE’s Hamriyah port.

ENERGY — Arab Gulf oil producers can restore 50% of their shut capacity in just two weeks once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and can ramp that up to 80% just a month later, Bloomberg cites the International Energy Agency as saying in its last monthly oil report. The resumption would be contingent on companies mobilizing workers, contractors, and stabilizing supply chains.

The final 20%? That might take longer to restore, primarily due to reduced pressure in the fields and other technical constraints.

But it’s not so easy: Reopening Hormuz has become more complicated after the US naval blockade took effect earlier this week, pushing crude briefly past USD 100 a barrel and putting regional producers on high alert after Tehran threatened to retaliate against wider maritime infrastructure.

LOGISTICS — AD Ports goes all-in on the Middle Corridor with Romania agreement: AD Ports Group signed a strategic agreement with Romania’s National Company Maritime Ports Administration to modernize the Port of Constanța, the Black Sea’s largest maritime hub, according to a statement. The agreement opens the door to joint work on port development, digitalization, and sustainability — spanning renewable energy, waste management, and emission cuts.

Why this matters: By expanding into Constanța, AD Ports is extending its presence along the Middle Corridor, building on recent investments across Central Asia and the Caucasus. The Black Sea port offers a potential link between these inland assets and European markets, supporting the development of an alternative east-west trade route.

Location, location, location: Constanța’s position on the Black Sea — and at the center of the Danube-Black Sea Canal — makes it a critical gateway between maritime routes and inland Europe. The port handled 88 mn tonnes of cargo and around 1 mn TEUs in 2025, cementing its role as a multimodal hub for trade flows, particularly grains moving out of Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

M&A WATCH — Mubadala-Petrobras talks back on: Brazil’s state-owned energy firm Petrobras is back in early-stage talks to buy Brazil’s Mataripe oil refinery back from Mubadala, with an agreement potentially on the table before year-end, Reuters reports, citing sources with knowledge of the matter.

Mataripe is Brazil's second-biggest refinery, and despite having a capacity of 300k bbl per day, or 14% of the country’s total refinery capacity, is currently operating under capacity.

Refresher: Petrobras was finalizing due diligence in 2024 to re-acquire the refinery from Mubadala after selling it for USD 1.65 bn in 2021. Talks stalled a month later, and the matter was downplayed as “not a priority” by Petrobras, even as investors in Acelen, the company Mubadala set up to run the refinery, grew uneasy. Despite the pause, analysts have maintained the transaction is “more likely to happen than not.”

Why now? The renewed push comes as Brazil looks to ease refining bottlenecks. Mataripe is operating at around 60% capacity, while Petrobras’ own plants are near full utilization, adding urgency as diesel prices climb.

As for Mubadala, the sovereign wealth fund has been restructuring its Brazil portfolio, having recently closed its third Brazil fund of nearly USD 1 bn. Towards the end of last year, it acquired 60.3% of an infrastructure firm, and was also reported to be eyeing taking over a Brazilian fintech.

Meanwhile, Adnoc is close to acquiring Shell’s fuel retail network in South Africa: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is in advanced talks to acquire Shell’s fuel retail network in South Africa, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The transaction could be worth around USD 1 bn and close as early as this quarter.

Why Shell is selling: Shell is continuing to offload non-core assets globally. Shell and BP sold the Harmattan gas field in the Mediterranean last November to Arcius Energy, a JV between BP and Adnoc’s investment arm XRG.

For Adnoc, this is about global reach: The acquisition would give Adnoc roughly 10% of the market in Africa’s largest economy, extending its push into downstream and retail beyond the Gulf and reinforcing a broader overseas expansion drive. That strategy is backed by a USD 150 bn capex budget through 2030, alongside the rapid scaling of its investment arm XRG, which has nearly doubled to a USD 151 bn enterprise value and recently closed a EUR 14.7 bn takeover of Germany’s Covestro.

AND- Abu Dhabi-backed RedBird IMI just got one step closer to exiting the UK’s Telegraph Media Group after the British government greenlit Berlin-based media giant Axel Springer’s GBP 575 mn acquisition of the publication. UK Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said in a statement yesterday that she is “not minded to intervene,” ending a three-year battle for the broadsheet. Axel Springer also owns Politico and Business Insider.

The mechanics: In practice, this will see RedBird IMI cashout by selling its conversion rights to Axel Springer, which would then swap that debt for 100% equity. The transaction is expected to close by the end of June, pending minor regulatory nods in Ireland and Austria, according to the Financial Times.

ICYMI- This was the only way out: RedBird IMI — a JV between Abu Dhabi’s IMI and US private equity firm RedBird Capital — had been in a regulatory deadlock since the UK passed laws in 2024 to block foreign state-backed ownership of national newspapers. It walked away from a previous takeover structure that would have seen IMI’s stake capped at 15% under UK regulations, with newsroom opposition and a slow-moving clearance process reportedly raising doubts about the takeover’s feasibility. The sale to Axel Springer scraps a prior GBP 500 mn arrangement that would have seen Daily Mail owner DMGT buy the Telegraph alongside the JV.

INVESTMENT WATCH — BlueFive makes a USD 3 bn play at defense: Abu Dhabi-based private equity firm BlueFive Capital is planning to raise around USD 3 bn to invest in aerospace and defense, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are in the know. The firm is targeting an initial USD 1 bn first close by 3Q, with a focus on companies aligned with Nato technologies.

Who’s helping drive it: Former UK Defense Secretary Michael Fallon, now a senior adviser to the firm, has been engaging potential investors and targets.

The timing is no coincidence: As we’ve previously reported, the UAE has faced more than 1k Iranian attacks, exposing a sharp cost imbalance between low-cost drones and high-cost interceptors. The fund is emerging amid an international surge in military spending and a scramble for air defense systems as the Iran conflict intensifies. The Emirates is already responding, holding early talks with US-based drone firm Powerus on new systems and with Japan-based Terra Drone on Ukrainian-designed interceptor drones.

BlueFive moves quickly across priority sectors: BlueFive’s defense push builds on a broader investment strategy spanning advanced tech and AI. This includes a USD 50 mn investment in Abu Dhabi-based AI firm Origen, a USD 3 bn technology and growth fund targeting AI, biotech, and advanced computing, and a USD 230 mn seed round in AI-powered digital bank Mal.

The big story abroad

Washington’s naval blockade on Iran is still in effect and bilateral talks “could be happening over next two days,” US President Donald Trump said overnight. A major sticking point will be Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Washington reportedly proposed a 20-year “suspension” of all nuclear activity — not just a permanent ban of nuclear enrichment. Iran is holding out for a five-year suspension of work on anything nuclear.

The US blockade of Hormuz has tankers stopping or turning around, the FT notes.

Pressure on Tehran is mounting, with Washington deciding not to renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions — set to lapse this Sunday — on Iranian oil at sea, Reuters reports. The waiver has allowed roughly 140 mn barrels of oil to reach global markets.

Lebanon and Israel held their first direct diplomatic talks in decades on Tuesday in Washington, which the US State Department called a “historic milestone.” Iran-aligned Hezbollah was not represented at the sit-down and has long opposed direct talks with Tel Aviv.

MEANWHILE- US banks are breaking earnings records as 1Q financials come out. Investment banks capitalized on a volatile first quarter marked by US intervention in Venezuela and the war on Iran. JPMorgan Chase delivered its highest-ever topline figure, while Citi turned in its best quarterly revenue in a decade.

***

You’re reading EnterpriseAM UAE, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about the UAE, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Monday through Friday by 7am UAE time.

EnterpriseAM UAE is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Mashreq and Hassan Allam Properties.

Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM UAE.

Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on UAE@enterpriseAM.com .

DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the MENA logistics industry?

***

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

From nearly 10 mn m’naire inflows last year to… outflows this year?

Last year, the UAE was set to be one of the biggestdestinations for high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), with some 9.8k expected to flock to the country for its lifestyle benefits, tax regime, and flexible visas. That was especially the case due to an exodus from places like the UK on the back of prolonged economic stagnation, steep hikes to capital gains and inheritance taxes, and tighter rules on non-domiciled residents and family wealth structures.

Fast forward to 2026, and many HNWIs in the UAE have either left or are looking into other locations for long-term residency, though it’s not clear yet how permanent that exit is. “The UAE, which has traditionally been the top destination for migrating m’naires post-Covid, is expected to see a large net outflow of HNWIs in 2026,” Andrew Amoils, head of research at New World Wealth, tells EnterpriseAM.

Inquiries for the UAE residence program fell 13% in 1Q 2026, compared to 4Q 2025, according to data Henley & Partners shared with EnterpriseAM. We’ve also already seen reports of some 30k British residents leaving since the war started, as well as more than 52k Indian nationals leaving the UAE and the wider Gulf region in early March. Much of this movement, however, is linked to short-term disruption. From the US, more than 40k residents left the broader Middle East.

Yes, but — this might be temporary: “It would still be premature to conclude that recent developments will lead to any meaningful or lasting reallocation of wealth or mobility patterns,” a spokesperson from Henley & Partners said. They pointed to the fact that most decisions around residency and investment are typically driven by long-term considerations rather than short-term shocks.

“Periods of geopolitical uncertainty typically led families to review contingency plans, but these discussions do not necessarily result in immediate or permanent relocation decisions,” the firm added.

The war is a major factor, but there are other reasons HNWIs might look elsewhere

Several issues are at play here. The obvious one is the uncertainty around the war over the past month or so, and the risk of geopolitical tensions escalating. Another is that m'naires and b’naires have historically treated the UAE as an initial relocation point rather than a long-term residence, Amoils said.

Stricter compliance rules and rising costs of golden visas also play a role, Amolis added. “For years, moving to the UAE was the ‘easy button’ for global mobility among the ultra-wealthy,” he explained. “However, the landscape has tightened as global pressure and increased scrutiny from international bodies have forced the UAE to implement more rigorous checks and controls, while costs of entry have also risen substantially.”

The boom in property prices over the past few years also adds to the list of potential deterrents for HNWIs. “Apartment prices in affluent parts of Dubai now exceed USD 10k per square meter,” Amolis said, noting that several European and US cities are comparatively more affordable.

Where will they go?

Italy is emerging as a tempting alternative for UAE-linked wealth reconsidering long-term residency, Armand Arton, a consultant advising ultra-wealthy families on relocation and citizenship planning, told The Guardian. Under its flat-tax regime, foreign residents can pay EUR 300k annually on overseas income.

Inquiries for Italy’s residence program rose 5% between 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026, and it now ranks as Henley & Partners’ ninth most popular residence and citizenship program globally, with the top five applicants being from the US, Turkey, India, the UK, and China, the firm told us.

Buyers are shifting from lifestyle or second-home purchases toward full residency decisions, Diletta Giorgolo, who runs Italy Sotheby’s International Realty in Milan, told The Guardian.

Interest among wealthy Dubai-based expats in Switzerland has also picked up since the outbreak of the war, the Financial Times reports. Local officials in Zug say interest has risen sharply, with finance director Heinz Tännler noting increased inquiries as the canton draws capital seeking stability.

Other places seeing increased inquiries for both short-term and long-term accommodation from wealthy Middle Eastern residents include London, Monaco, and Marbella, Bloomberg reports.

The UK — which has seen a massive exodus in recent years, especially to the UAE — could also choose to capitalize on the current unstable environment for HNWIs in the Gulf and pull some of its residents back. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves signaled possible tax rule changes ahead of her US trip aimed at reducing friction for US-linked and globally mobile taxpayers considering relocation to Britain, the Financial Times reports separately. She has also framed the UK as “open for business.”

This might be more about optionality than anything else

Henley & Partners said it is seeing increased engagement among UAE-based clients focused on building multi-jurisdiction residency options rather than a structural shift away from the country. These adjustments reflect a desire for short-term flexibility — whether that means spending more time in alternative locations or simply securing additional residence pathways.

This reflects a wider structural shift in global wealth planning. Families are now treating residency and jurisdictional exposure like a diversified asset portfolio — what Kroll’s Global Head of Investigations Tom Everett-Heath calls “decentralization in the face of governance unpredictability,” the Financial Times reports elsewhere.

The UAE is also widely expected to act fast to draw people back in

Fitch Solutions’ BMI has recently said it expects policymakers to lean harder on the same toolkit used before — more visa liberalization, visible security spending, and lifestyle incentives — to keep expat inflows steady.

It has already started to offer incentives and support measures for businesses, including deferring customs payments and waiving some duties entirely. It also hinted at "streamlining" the residency and visa process for expats, without going into detail on how it might do that.

Our take? Expect expat- and residency-focused incentives to follow soon.

New capital for local brands

UAE-based consumer venture capital firm Homegrown Ventures has closed its debut Fund I at USD 22.8 mn, which it will deploy into “better-for-you” CPG and FMCG brands across food, wellness, and lifestyle, according to a press release. Capital will go to early-stage brands in MENA, South Asia, and select global markets.

A head start: The fund has already deployed capital into five startups ahead of final close, including Lebanon’s PawPots, a fresh pet food brand, and Dubai-based Plaay, a clean-ingredient chocolate brand, signalling early momentum in the region’s consumer space. No further details were disclosed on the remaining portfolio companies.

The wager: Multinationals out, locals in

The backdrop: For decades, the region’s consumer space has been dominated by multinationals, leaving limited room and support for locally built brands.

The wager? That’s starting to shift. MENA’s consumer market is turning inward faster than capital. “With over 55% of the MENA population under 35 [...] consumers don’t just want local alternatives, they are actively choosing them,” general partner Nader Amiri said, pointing to rising demand for local, transparent, and health-focused products.

Fun fact: The founders themselves — Nader Amiri (LinkedIn) and Ahmad Shamieh (LinkedIn) — are former multinational business owners with a long history at major FMCG brands like Danone, Kraft, and Coca Cola.

Why timing matters

The push comes as regional disruption exposes the fragility of import-heavy supply chains. As we previously covered, policymakers are already pushing for greater localization, with targets of 25% local sourcing in hospitality, while new projects like UNS Vertical Farms are stepping in to reduce reliance on imports in a market that still sources up to 80-90% of its food externally.

UAE, Saudi business sentiment remains resilient as investors recalibrate strategies - HSBC

UAE and Saudi business sentiment holds firm despite disruptions, pursuing growth through recalibrated strategies. Businesses and investors in the UAE and Saudi Arabia are maintaining firm medium-term strategies despite ongoing regional uncertainty, according to an HSBC global business leaders survey (pdf). On the global front, 93% of the surveyed investors plan to increase cross-border trade or investment over the next five years.

GCC confidence in near-term growth is strong, with 96% of respondents in the UAE and 98% in Saudi Arabia seeing global expansion prospects and already reshaping their supply chain strategies to capture them. The global figure sits slightly below that of the GCC countries at 94%, but still indicates that cross-border trade and investment are expected to become more regional.

The disruption opens the door for business repositioning: 93% of respondents in the UAE see the current economic environment as a catalyst to redefine priorities and reassess market exposure, a view shared by 95% in Saudi Arabia. These figures exceed the global average of 88%, with 87% of respondents saying they are now more willing than they were five years ago to take calculated risks to grow their businesses.

Regional investments will become mainstream

Regionalization is a main focal point for global decision-makers, with 91% of firms expecting cross-border activity to become more regional over the next five years. Some 37% of respondents expect the UAE to become more important to their economic relationships, while 33% say the same for Saudi.

Why it matters: These figures put the UAE and Saudi ahead of other major markets, including India (26%), ASEAN (24%), and the wider Middle East (23%), in terms of rising strategic importance. That momentum is part of a broader shift, with 89% of businesses increasing capital deployment into high-growth markets.

AI is redefining growth strategies

AI and technology are shaping how investors approach 2026. Half of the surveyed firms now see access to technology and infrastructure just as important as market growth and client demand when planning international strategies, while 49% of investors say greater exposure to AI themes is driving shifts in their portfolios. That shift is also showing up in new market choices, with energy costs and AI infrastructure (51%) now almost on the same level as traditional growth prospects (52%).

Investors see tech driving a wide range of gains over the next three years, led by higher productivity and workforce efficiency (56%), better forecasting and decision-making (48%), and stronger innovation (46%), along with lower operating costs (46%). Looking further ahead, nearly a third expect AI to fundamentally reshape their core business models by 2030.

What’s next?

Digital finance will be on the rise. 90% of decision-makers expect digital finance adoption to accelerate over the next five years, and more than half saying digital assets will become core market infrastructure by 2031. Readiness remains a challenge, with 47% of businesses still not understanding how digital finance will affect them, and fewer than 40% already implemented use cases.

Respondents believe private capital (33%) will exert the greatest influence over global capital allocation by 2035, significantly outranking public markets (20%), a blended model (20%), sovereign and state-backed investors (18%), and governments or regulators (10%).

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Is digital expansion the new branch scaling for banks?

Emirati banks have been on an expansion push into Asia and Africa to capture flows going through corridors from those regions to the Gulf and to bring banking to larger, unbanked populations. Mashreq was the first to receive a restricted license from the State Bank of Pakistan last year to kick off pilot operations as a digital retail bank, and it operates in India, Hong Kong, Egypt, and other countries. Meanwhile, others like Emirates NBD are pushing into markets like India through acquisitions.

But the old playbook for entering a new market has changed: Acquisitions are still on the table, and banks are still investing in physical branches and teams abroad — but as banking becomes more digital, these are far from the only ways to expand in a new market anymore.

For Mashreq, going into a market like Egypt or Pakistan — and succeeding — doesn’t necessarily require boots on the ground. Instead, the goal is rapid financial inclusion without the heavy CAPEX of a massive branch network. “In Egypt and Pakistan, you’re empowering the population to have a bank account digitally with complete ease,” Chief Client Experience and Conduct Officer Rania Nerhal tells EnterpriseAM. That means that “I don’t need to have a presence on the ground as much as I [need to] have a good digital experience,” she said.

Mashreq has been investing heavily in its digital banking journeys, consolidating its apps to make customers’ lives easier, launching an AI-enabled chatbot to handle customer queries and requests, and integrating AI into its business banking dashboards.

All of that falls into the client experience bucket at Mashreq: Where a customer’s experience with their bank years ago was defined by the amount of time they spent at the branch waiting in line or their interaction with a teller or customer service officers — it’s now become much more nuanced. It’s also about your digital journey, the ease of doing your routine tasks, and having access and visibility into your finances 24/7. “The bank’s philosophy is that if a customer has to talk to a human for a routine transaction, the digital journey has failed,” Nerhal said.

At the core of this shift is an AI-powered chatbot that Mashreq tested internally for 18 months before a phased rollout to 300k customers last year. The system handles 120 use cases — from credit cards and loans to savings and deposits — without a single agent transfer in 89% of cases, Nerhal said.

It’s not all about the chatbot though: For markets that are not “high-mass” — think the UAE and other Gulf countries — ultra-high-net-worth individuals are looking for better access and visibility into their finances, which are often scattered across different accounts and markets. In their case, making the digital journey easier means consolidating balance checks, trading, wealth management, and mortgage all through the same app, Nerhal explained.

This also means hiring needs are changing: The job descriptions for both branch employees and contact center officers are becoming more demanding. “They’re no longer involved in [printing statements],” Nerhal says of branch employees. “They're focused on value-add and high-value impact interaction with the client.” When a human is in the loop, it’s for “critical journeys” — structuring a mortgage, discussing investment advice, or negotiating facilities for an SME.

The new hiring mandate: Mashreq now prioritizes “an innovative mindset, deep digital fluency, and strong product knowledge,” she explained. That should all be underpinned by communication skills and genuine customer empathy, she added.

What to watch

The bank has its eyes on turning the physical branch into a boutique “advisory hub” as it continues to introduce updates to its digital capabilities, including plans to update its AI chatbot in 2026.

HSBC loses two DCM heads, but it’s not scaling back. Plus: Talabat taps chief international officer

Two members of HSBC’s debt capital markets team move to Wall Street banks: HSBC’s head of debt capital markets for the Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa (CEEMEA) region, Khaled Darwish, has moved to Bank of America, while head of debt capital markets for the Middle East and North Africa left to join Goldman Sachs in Dubai, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

Darwish will be taking on the role of head of Middle East and North Africa corporate banking, the business news information service said.

HSBC stands firm on its commitment to the region: “We’re committed to attracting and retaining talent as part of HSBC’s high-performance culture and are proud of the progress of our DCM franchise in the Middle East,” a spokesperson from the bank told EnterpriseAM UAE, while noting that the bank does not comment on individuals.

The lender has deep presence across the region, including in Riyadh, and has said it will double down on the Middle East even as it pulls away from other markets in the Americas and ⁠Europe.

Meanwhile, online delivery platform Talabat tapped Bader Al Ghanim (LinkedIn) as its first chief international officer, with the role of overseeing managing directors at eight different markets and “driving consistent execution,” according to a statement. Al Ghanim will also continue to oversee the Kuwait market, for which he has been managing director for three years, during the transition.

CBUAE expands payments rails into Asia + relief goes private

The Central Bank of the UAE is stepping up cooperation with the Philippines

Philippines next stop on the UAE’s financial services cooperation train: The Central Bank of the UAE and the Philippines’ central bank — Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas — plan to integrate their instant payment systems to enable cross-border payments, according to a statement (pdf). The two central banks are also looking into interlinking their national card switches and financial messaging systems in a move to strengthen financial infrastructure cooperation between the countries.

Cooperation on Islamic banking and open finance is also in the cards for the Philippines and the UAE, which allows the UAE to gain exposure to a huge Muslim base at a time when the sector is still in its nascent stages.

Background: The CBUAE already has similar agreements in place with the likes of India and Hong Kong, with the goal being strengthening remittance channels for expats and capitalizing on the growing UAE-Asia trade and investment corridor.

Private sector joins the relief push

Multinational carmaker Stellantis is offering UAE SMEs short-term access to vehicles at no cost — fuel included — to help keep operations running during disruption, according to a press release. The scheme runs through mid-May and gives eligible businesses up to seven days’ access to cars and trucks for logistics and day-to-day operations.

IN CONTEXT- As we’ve been reporting, authorities have already stepped up relief across several sectors — from SMEs to healthcare and real estate — as part of a broader push to cushion the impact of the conflict. Catch up on our latest coverage here.

Al Ghurair taps architect for Al Jaddaf masterplan

Al Ghurair brings in the big guns: Al Ghurair Development brought on an international name for design work on its 1 mn sq ft development in Dubai Creek Harbour, Al Jaddaf, TradeArabia reports. US-based Pelli Clarke & Partners, which is behind landmarks like New York’s World Financial Center, will design the masterplan for the project. The development will include commercial, residential, lifestyle, and hospitality units.

ICYMI- It’s still relatively uncharted waters for Dubai’s Al Ghurair family, which was planning an entry into the real estate market at the end of last year, Sultan Al Ghurair had said. At the time, the plan was to capitalize on unused land plots within its asset portfolio via a new firm that would target three to four projects initially.

IMF trims global GDP forecast with dispersed war scenarios

The IMF has revised down its global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026 from the 3.4% projected in January, according to its recent World Economic Outlook report (pdf). Without the war, the IMF says global growth would have been revised upward due to strong technology investment and resilient productivity resulting from AI adoption.

The MENA region faces the most significant downgrade of 2.8 percentage points to a 1.1% growth rate in 2026, from a previous forecast of 3.9%, highlighting a hardening regional divide amid war. Saudi Arabia’s growth forecast was slashed down to 3.1% in 2026, a major 1.4 percentage points decrease from the Fund’s January projection. However, growth is expected to pick up pace again to 4.5% in 2027, up by about 0.9 percentage points from the January forecast.

The UAE's 2026 GDP growth projection was also cut to 3.1%, down from 5% in the Fund’s October projection. Egypt’s GDP forecast was also revised down to 4.2% in 2026, a 0.5 percentage points decrease from its January projection. Meanwhile, growth is anticipated to rebound in 2027 to reach 4.8%.

Global inflation forecast was raised by 0.7 percentage points to 4.4% in 2026, citing a double-tap of higher energy and food prices.The likelihood of maintaining elevated interest rates for an extended period is now higher than indicated by the October 2025 projections.

Dark scenarios

The IMF’s “adverse scenario” sees the global economy slashed by 0.8 percentage points off global growth in 2026, dragging it down to 2.5%, while sending headline inflation to 5.4%. This scenario envisions the global economy choked by a sudden 80% spike in oil prices and a 160% surge in Asian and European gas prices.

The real danger lies in the IMF’s “severe scenario.” A global recession — will see a persistent 100% surge in oil prices in 2Q of 2026 and a 200% spike in gas prices — would choke global growth down to just below 2%, a level seen only during the global financial crisis and the pandemic. The impact is structurally deeper and more persistent, with inflation skyrocketing up to 6.1% by 2027, forcing the Fed to hike rates by 100 bps.

Credit pain to hit emerging markets

Emerging markets — excluding China — would face a violent repricing of risk in the worse scenarios. Sovereign spreads are projected to widen by up to 100 bps, while corporate premiums could jump by as much as 200 bps. This freezes the capital flows MENA firms rely on for survival.

This time is different: Central banks won’t have the luxury of cutting rates to support growth, and instead, they will be forced into mandatory tightening to anchor inflation expectations, leaving the private sector to navigate a high-cost, low-liquidity environment alone, the report said.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets felt the signs of diplomatic engagement by regional and global powers. Japan’s Nikkei rose around 0.6%, South Korea’s Kospi gained 2.8%, and MSCI’s broad gauge of Asia-Pacific shares — excluding Japan — reached its highest level in six weeks. US futures are broadly trading flat.

ADX	9,840	+0.6% (YTD: -1.5%)
DFM	5,720	+0.9% (YTD: -5.4%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,708	+1.0% (YTD: +3.7%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	4.0% 1 yr
TASI	11,487	+0.5% (YTD: +9.5%)
EGX30	49,979	+1.8% (YTD: +19.4%)
S&P 500	6,886	+1.0% (YTD: +0.6%)
FTSE 100	10,609	+0.3% (YTD: +6.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,985	+1.4% (YTD: +3.3%)
Brent crude	USD 94.61	-0.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.60	-0.1%
Gold	USD 4,871	+0.4%
BTC	USD 74,370	-0.4% (YTD: -15.2%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.56	-2.7% (YTD: -2.9%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151	-0.0% (YTD: +7.3%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	18.36	-4.0% (YTD: +22.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.9% yesterday on turnover of AED 831.8 mn. The index is down 5.4% YTD.

In the green: BHM Capital Financial Services (+10.0%), Talabat Holding (+4.6%), and GFH Financial Group (+4.4%).

In the red: Commercial Bank of Dubai (-2.2%), Dubai National Ins. & Reinsurance (-2.2%), and Aramex (-1.2%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.6% on turnover of AED 1.3 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1.0%.

Peace and energy with Beijing

Beijing is stepping up engagement with the UAE: Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan earlier this week, with talks centering on the Iran conflict, Chinese newswire Xinhua reports. During the meeting, Jinping pitched a four-point framework for regional stability built around sovereignty, multilateralism, and coordinated development.

Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li Qiang urged the UAE to “ensure the safety of ⁠Chinese citizens, institutions and projects” amid the escalation, Reuters reports, citing state broadcaster CCTV.

The diplomacy is paired with an energy push: China is looking to deepen cooperation with the UAE across hydrogen, energy storage, and EVs, Qiang said. The two are already building on this front, with China’s BYD planning ultra-fast 1 MW charging units for EV infrastructure in the UAE.

CALENDAR

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Abu Dhabi Global Entrepreneurship Festival, Abu Dhabi Energy Center, Abu Dhabi

21 April (Tuesday): FAO Regional Conference for the Near East (NERC38), Al Ain.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, ICC Hall, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Desalination Forum, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent;
Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

Sections

About

Privacy & Support

Get EnterpriseAM daily