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US tariffs are a good and a bad thing for the UAE, economists say

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Oil prices take a beating following surprise Opec+ decision + Why are some Middle Eastern firms trading below their IPO price?

Good morning, wonderful people, and happy FRIDAY. It’s still all about US President Donald Trump’s tariffs both at home and globally, as markets and investors continue to mull how the new tariff system will reshape the global economy.

We have a run-down of what economists think will happen to the UAE on the back of the tariffs (spoiler alert: it’s a mix of good and bad news) below, as well as a recap of the global market response yesterday, which saw US stocks wipe out tns in market value.

Plus: As has been customary in every issue for the past few weeks, we have more M&A news, this time courtesy of Cvyn Holdings, which completed its acquisition of McLaren Automotive and consolidated its British automotive businesses into a new holding company. In energy news, Taqa will develop an open-cycle gas turbine in Abu Dhabi in a new partnership with Ewec.


☀️WEATHER- This week’s heat has yet to let up, with temperatures peaking at 38°C today in Dubai, before cooling to 27°C overnight. Over in Abu Dhabi, the mercury will reach 34°C, with an overnight low of 25°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Several Middle Eastern listings are trading well below their IPO prices as unmet earnings forecasts and high valuations now weigh on share price, Bloomberg reports, name-checking LuLu Retail alongside Nice One in Saudi Arabia. Despite Lulu Retail clinching the title of second biggest IPO of 2024, attracting big investors like Singapore’s GIC, the stock is now trading at a third of its original share price of AED 2.04, after missing its earnings forecast in its first full quarter as a listed firm.

Background: Lulu Retail saw its net income from continuing operations fall 38.1% y-o-y to USD 64.7 mn, on the back of “slower revenue growth and higher interest charges resulting from increased working capital debt.”

“It is clear that the market has become more sensitive to valuations and will punish accordingly names that don’t deliver on their guidance,” head of frontier investments at Schroder Investment Management, Rami Sidani, said. Meanwhile, Paolo Casamassima, CEO of the Middle East Investor Relations Association, partly blamed the subdued market sentiment on insufficient communication and investor relations support.

OIL WATCH-

Oil fell more than 6% yesterday — trading below USD 70 briefly — after Opec+ producers unexpectedly announced plans to boost production by more than initially planned, adding to the volatility in oil markets already caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Eight of Opec+’s producers agreed to hike production by 411k barrels a day, triple the initially agreed amount as part of a gradual unwinding of supply cuts, according to a statement. The members cited “continuing healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook” as the reasoning behind its decision.

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

Conference season is back into full gear next week after the Ramadan and Eid lull:

#1- The Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Center is set to host Geo-Spatial Week from 6-11 April in Dubai with the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. The week-long event will welcome experts in photogrammetry, remote sensing, and spatial sciences.

#2- EFG Hermes’ One on One conference will take place from Monday, 7 April until Thursday, 10 April in Dubai. The conference is the largest gathering of its kind devoted to emerging and frontier equities and connects international institutional investors with senior execs in industries ranging from food and fintech, to banking and petrochemicals.

#3- The AIM Congress 2025 is set to take place from Monday, 7 April until Wednesday 9 April at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The event will bring together senior executives, government officials, and global investors to foster investment collaboration to drive global economic development. Attendees can expect forums, panel discussions, workshops, and a startup competition, Wam reports.

#4- Middle East Energy will take place from Monday, 7 April to Wednesday, 9 April at the Dubai World Trade Center. The exhibition and conference brings together industry leaders, and energy professionals to discuss the energy transition, sustainability practices, innovations in power generation, renewable energy, and energy efficiency.

#5- The World Local Production Forum is running from Monday, 7 April to Wednesday, 9 April at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The World Health Organization-backed event will bring together global leaders to discuss localized, sustainable, and diversified medicine production, and strategies to enhance access to quality assured health products.

#6- The Fujairah Bunkering and Fuel Oil Forum (FUJCON 2025) will take place from Monday, 7 April until Wednesday, 9 April at DoubleTree by Hilton Fujairah. Organized by S&P Global Commodity Insights, in collaboration with the Fujairah government, the Port of Fujairah, and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, the event will bring together energy leaders to discuss geopolitical and decarbonization impacts on shipping and bunkering, fuel quality, market trends, and technological advancements.

#7- AWS GenAI Loft Dubai 2025 will take place from Monday, 7 April to Friday, 11 April at Dubai International Financial Centre’s (DIFC) Innovation One building. The five-day event will see industry startups, business leaders, investors, developers, and AI enthusiasts attend workshops and lectures on generative AI technologies and their practical applications across industries.

#8- The World Crisis and Emergency Management Summit will take place in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, 8 April and Wednesday, 9 April, state news agency Wam reports. Under the theme Together Towards Building Global Resilience, the event will bring together global leaders to discuss improving international cooperation in crisis management, emergency planning, and risk prediction. The event will also feature two exhibitions — Crisis Management Technologies and Generation Readiness — to showcase new sector-specific technological tools.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The massive impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on global markets is the biggest topic on global front pages today, along with analysis into his questionable calculation for the tariffs — which target the poorest countries based on trade deficits, while failing to account for other factors like affordability of goods — as well as contradictory statements regarding whether or not he’d be open to negotiation. He said — contradicting his White House aides — that he could be open if other countries offered something “phenomenal.”

We have everything on the global market response in Planet Finance, below.

Also getting some attention in the foreign press: Hungary’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court in defiance of its arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who flew to the country this week despite the arrest warrant. (Reuters)

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ECONOMY

US tariffs offer a toss-up of good and bad news for the UAE economy, analysts say

As the world continues to weigh the impacts of US President Donald Trumps’ sweeping new tariffs on the global economy, we take a look at the expected impact on the GCC, and the UAE in particular, given the 10% tariff imposed on exports to the US.

In case you’ve been living under a rock and somehow missed the news, Trump yesterday announced plans to slap a universal 10% tariff on all US imports, as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on other trading partners, as he vowed to “liberate” the US from what he claimed were unfair trade barriers against the US. GCC countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman were slapped with the 10% tariff.

In the grand scheme of things, the GCC actually got off easy. “The higher tariffs applied to other countries will give Gulf states a relative competitive advantage,” GCC Economist and Khalij Economics Director Justin Alexander told EnterpriseAM UAE. The UAE and other GCC countries are among a lucky few getting the more minor 10% tariff — with others like China, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Taiwan receiving tariffs of up to 54%. “It's not a good outcome that universal tariffs are now part of how the US is financing itself, but [Gulf] leaders may take it as a partial success that they ended up in this lowest tier of most friendly countries in this new rubric,” Rachel Ziemba, founder of advisory firm Ziemba Insights, told the National.

On the downside, the fact that the GCC is only getting off with a 10% tariff means there is likely “little scope for individual negotiation,” Alexander said.

Most economists, including Alexander, agree that impact on the UAE’s trade will be limited, since the US is a smaller market for exports. But according to Alexander, a “recalibration of global trade flows” is expected, which will have an impact on companies like DP World — while “the UAE’s role as a bastion of freetrade will add to its appeal as an investment destination in an uncertain world.”

By the numbers: The US had a trade surplus with the UAE as of last year, with the Office of the US Trade Representative reporting a surplus of USD 19.5 bn. US exports to the Emirates amounted to USD 27 bn, while UAE exports to America came in at USD 7.5 bn. The biggest export market is precious stones and jewelry, followed by aluminium.

Why exporters shouldn’t be worried: Aluminum and steel exporters are already subject to a separate 25% tariff and will not be impacted by the new tariff policy, with an Emsteel representative telling the National it sees a limited impact considering the US accounts for a limited portion of overall sales. Meanwhile, the “high-profit margins associated with precious stones and jewellery, and the UAE's status as a low-cost producer of aluminium” will shield those industries from significant impacts, chief economist at Commercial Bank of Dubai Deepak Mehra told the National.

But there will be an economic impact

From an economic perspective, lower oil prices and higher US interest rates could have a negative impact on GCC economies, Alexander said. Oil prices already fell yesterday, with Brent crude dropping to USD 70, although that was likely on news of Opec+ speeding up production hikes (read: What We’re Tracking today, above), and fell USD 2 following news of the tariffs. “The ultimate impact on the oil market could be materially negative if there is a significant downturn in global trade,” Alexander wrote in a note.

The tariffs are also expected to drive up inflation, leading to higher-for-longer interest rates in the US and the rest of the GCC.

The impact on the USD, which could in the long term, be negative due to fading trust in the US economy, will also have an impact on the GCC, which pegs its currencies to the greenback. "It's not clear what USD value is optimal for the GCC, which benefits from a strong dollar in terms of the cost of its imports and expat salaries, but suffers from its impact on the competitiveness of non-oil exports,” Alexander added. The USD fell to a fresh six-month low yesterday following news of the tariffs.

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M&A WATCH

Cyvn completes acquisition of McLaren Automotive, merges British automotive businesses under new entity

Cyvn now owns McLaren’s automotive business, consolidates British automotive portfolio: Cyvn Holdings, an Abu Dhabi-owned advanced mobility investment firm, completed its acquisition of UK luxury sports car marker McLaren’s automotive business and a minority stake in its racing arm, McLaren Racing, according to a press release (pdf).

The acquisition will see Cyvn consolidate its British businesses by merging McLaren Automotive and British EV startup Forseven under its new entity, McLaren Group Holdings. The group will also include Cyvn’s stake in McLaren Racing and the newly formed McLaren Licensing.

Refresher: This acquisition follows the signing of a non-binding agreement between Bahraini sovereign wealth fund Mumtalakat and Cyvn in October to explore acquiring the company.

Big plans for McLaren Automotive: Cvyn plans to use its investments — not only in Forseven, but also in Chinese EV manufacturer Nio — to expand McLaren Automotive’s portfolio into new product categories, with details set to be announced later this year. This could include a new SUV, following in the footsteps of luxury car manufacturing rivals like Lamborghini and Ferrari, people familiar with the matter told the Financial Times.

Other changes in the cards: The current CEO of Forseven Nick Collins will assume the role of Group CEO for the new holding company.

Background: While McLaren is a huge player in the supercar market, it has been making losses for the past five years, and has been in talks with carmakers for a partnership and new funding in order to develop new models for a while, the FT said.

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ENERGY

Taqa to develop 1 GW open-cycle gas turbine in Abu Dhabi

Taqa to build, own, operate 1 GW gas turbine in Al Dhafra: Abu Dhabi utility and energy firm Taqa inked a 24-year power purchase agreement with Emirates Water and Electricity Company (Ewec) that will allow it to build, own, and operate a 1 GW open-cycle gas turbine in Al Dhafra, according to a statement (pdf). The turbine will support Ewec and Masdar’s USD 6 bn, 5.2 GW solar and 19 GWh battery storage project, which is set to be the largest in the world once operational in 2027, and is expected to dispatch renewable energy around the clock.

What we know: Taqa fully owns the project, and will delegate its subsidiary, Taqa Transmission, to develop power grid infrastructure to integrate the additional generation capacity with “new sources of energy demand,” the company said.

The new partnership between Masdar, Ewec, and Taqa is set to drive investments worth some AED 36 bn in energy supply infrastructure in Abu Dhabi, the statement said. Some 75% of that will go towards renewable and conventional power generation, while the remaining 25% is going towards grid infrastructure.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

2PointZero’s Maseera acquires Egyptian consumer finance platform + Multiply, KSA’s Alarabia to invest in global advertising firms

M&A-

International Holding Company’s investment arm 2PointZero’s recently acquired fintech Maseera Holding has acquired Egyptian consumer finance platform Adva, making it its data and tech hub for North Africa, according to a press release. The company — which has now applied for a digital consumer finance license in Egypt — focuses on offering financing for middle- and low-income segments in Egypt through an AI-driven credit scoring model that uses alternative data like mobile usage insights.

REMEMBER- 2PointZero acquired Maseera in February, pledging USD 1 bn into the Egyptian fintech to support its expansion, rebranding, and the establishment of a new Abu Dhabi-based entity under the Maseera Holding name.

INVESTMENT-

Multiply, KSA’s Alarabia to invest in out-of-home advertising: Abu Dhabi investment firm Multiply Group inked an agreement with Saudi advertising firm Alarabia Outdoor Advertising to set up an investment entity dedicated to investing in the global out-of-home advertising sector, according to a bourse disclosure (pdf). The two companies will be looking at acquisition targets beyond the Middle East and North Africa region, including in advertising tech and AI like supply-side platforms that will help develop digital advertising propositions.

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PLANET FINANCE

Wall street sees worst day since covid-19 as tariffs weigh on investor confidence

It’s a sea of red across global markets, which are still reacting to news of the tariffs. US stocks wiped out some USD 3.1 tn in market value in the steepest declines the indices have seen since March 2020 during the early days of covid-19. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 6%, pulled down by the likes of Apple and Nvidia, which continued to see heavy sell-offs, while the S&P 500 fell nearly 5%, and the Dow Jones lost 4%.

Meanwhile, the USD fell 1.3% to its lowest in six months on the back of concerns over US growth projections and inflationary pressures. On the flip side, safe havens like the EUR and the JPY gained, with the former hitting a six-month high, and both the JPY and the CHF at their strongest against the greenback in six months.

It wasn’t just US stocks: Europe’s Stoxx 600 closed 2.7% lower Thursday, while the UK’s FTSE 100 fell around 1.7%, and German, French and Italian markets lost 3%.

Amid the market turmoil, Trump remained staunchly optimistic: “I think it’s going very well,” Trump told reporters in response to questions about his tariffs. “The markets are going to boom.”

Volatility is not expected to let up anytime soon: “Eye-watering tariffs on a country-by-country basis scream 'negotiation tactic,' which will keep markets on edge for the foreseeable future,” global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors, Adam Hetts said in a commentary picked up by Reuters. Despite the resilience so far to market shocks, “the big question is how much tolerance [the Trump administration] has for true economic pain as negotiations unfold,” he said.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets were not spared either, extending their declines from yesterday, with Japan’s Nikkei leading losses and South Korea’s Kospi also trading lower. Hong Kong and China’s markets are closed for a public holiday.

ADX

9,258

-0.8% (YTD: -1.7%)

DFM

5,027

-1.7% (YTD: -2.6%)

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20

4,042

-3.1% (YTD: -2.9%)

USD : AED CBUAE

Buy 3.67

Sell 3.67

EIBOR

4.3% o/n

4.2% 1 yr

TASI

11,883

-1.2% (YTD: -1.3%)

EGX30

31,700

-1% (YTD: +6.6%)

S&P 500

5,397

-4.8% (YTD: -8.3%)

FTSE 100

8,475

-1.6% (YTD: +3.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,113

-3.6% (YTD: +4.4%)

Brent crude

USD 70.14

-6.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.11

-0.6%

Gold

USD 3,136

+0.5%

BTC

USD 82,814

-1.9% (YTD: -12.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM fell 1.7% yesterday on turnover of AED 584.7 mn. The index is down 2.6% YTD.

In the green: Al Mazaya Holding Company (+13.8%), National Industries Group Holding (+12.2%) and Depa (+5%).

In the red: Emaar Properties (-9.7%), National General Ins. (-5.9%) and Tabreed (-5.4%).

Over on the ADX, the index fell 0.8% on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 3.1%.


APRIL

6-11 April (Sunday-Friday): Geo-Spatial Week, Dubai.

7-8 April (Monday-Tuesday): The International Booksellers Conference, Expo Center Sharjah.

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Investment Summit, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): World Local Production Forum, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Fujairah International Bunkering and Fuel Oil Forum, DoubleTree by Hilton Fujairah.

7-11 April (Monday-Friday): AWS GenAI Loft Dubai 2025, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Innovation One.

8 April (Tuesday): Allocations and refunds for Methaq Takaful’s rights issue on the ADX.

8-9 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): World Crisis and Emergency Management Summit, Abu Dhabi.

11-13 April (Friday-Sunday): I-Film Festival, Yas Creative Hub, Abu Dhabi.

12-13 April (Saturday-Sunday): Global Justice, Love & Peace Summit, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City Dubai.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Dubai Woodshow, Dubai World Trade Center

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): IPS congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

14-26 April (Monday-Saturday): Solana Economic Zone, Dubai.

15-17 April (Tuesday-Thursday): The Abu Dhabi Global Health Week, Adnec center, Abu Dhabi.

15 April (Tuesday): The Global Islamic FinTech Forum, Dusit Thani Hotel, Dubai.

15 April (Tuesday): G42 to acquire USD 335 mn worth of shares in Cerebras.

16-17 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The FastBull Finance Summit, Coca Cola Arena, Dubai.

16-18 April (Wednesday-Friday): World Future Energy Summit,Abu Dhabi National Exhibition, Abu Dhabi.

21-25 April (Monday-Friday): The Dubai AI Week, Museum of the Future and Area 2071, Emirates Towers, Dubai.

22-24 April (Tuesday-Thursday): DOMOTEX Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

22-24 April (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Conference on Education Quality,General Directorate of Identity and Foreigners Affairs Office, Dubai.

23-24 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Dubai AI Festival, Dubai International Financial Center.

25 April-11 May (Friday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai World Trade Center.

28 April-1 May (Monday-Thursday): The Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center

28 April-2 May (Monday-Friday): The Annual Conference of the International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers’ Associations (IFATCA)

29 April (Monday): Deadline to send comments and feedback on the FSRA proposal.

Signposted to happen sometime in April:

MAY

5-6 May (Monday-Tuesday): The Governance of Emerging Technologies Summit (GETS 2025), St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, Abu Dhabi.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Ports Forum, Dubai.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

6-8 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Centre.

13-16 May (Tuesday-Friday): International Union for Health Promotion and Education Conference, Abu Dhabi.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Annual HR Tech MENA, Dubai.

13-15 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Cabsat Middle East and Satellite Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

15 May (Thursday-Sunday): The Economy Middle East Summit, ADGM, Abu Dhabi.

15 May (Thursday): Dewa tender for pumping stations bids deadline.

15-18 May (Thursday-Sunday): The GLA Global Logistics Conference, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

16-18 May (Friday-Sunday): GISEC, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-22 May (Monday-Thursday): Make it in the Emirates, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

20 May (Tuesday): Dubai Business Forum, Hamburg, Germany.

20-21 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): The International Real Estate Investment Summit (IREIS 2025), Al Hamra International Exhibition and Conference Centre in Ras Al Khaimah.

20-22 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

23-25 May (Friday-Sunday): EuroLeague Final Four, Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi.

26-28 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arab Media Summit, World Trade Center, Dubai.

27-29 May (Tuesday-Thursday): INDEX, Workspace, and The Hotel Show, Dubai World Trade Center.

30 May (Friday): Arafat Day.

31 May-2 June (Saturday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

JUNE

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Middle East Rail, Dubai World Trade Center.

27 June (Friday): Islamic New Year.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

  • Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

JULY

6-7 July (Sunday-Monday): BRICS Summit, Rio de Janeiro.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): DigiHealth exhibition, World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-14 September (Friday-Sunday): The International Real Estate and Investment Show, Abu Dhabi.

16-17 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mohammed Bin Rashid Leadership Forum, Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development, Dubai.

OCTOBER

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Symposium on the System of Radiological Protection, the Ritz-Carlton Abu Dhabi, Grand Canal.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

15-17 November (Saturday-Monday): Myplant & Garden Middle East Green Expo, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow 2025, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): BRIDGE media summit, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

  • The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
  • e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.
  • Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)
  • The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Global Implementation Support Symposium, Abu Dhabi.
  • Universal Postal Congress 2025, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in the fall of 2025:

  • 2025 Games of the Future, Dubai.
  • ICOM General Conference 2025, Dubai

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime between 2027 and 2029:

  • The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.
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