The UAE is building the network. Now it needs to get people to the station

The UAE is spending bns of AED to get people out of their cars — but it’s not as simple as having more public transport. Etihad Rail’s passenger trains now run between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, Dubai has two new metro lines in the works worth more than AED 54 bn combined, and Abu Dhabi is overhauling how its buses run and how riders pay. But experts tell us more lines on the map won’t be enough to beat the car unless getting to and from the stations becomes a lot easier.

BACKGROUND- The first Etihad Rail station opened in Abu Dhabi at the end of June as part of an initial 11-station plan, to which another seven will be added later. The network expanded on September 30 with the launch of passenger services between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and Etihad Rail says services will extend to the Al Dhafra stations on December 30.

The biggest-ticket spending is in Dubai: The Dubai Metro’s Blue Line is scheduled to open in September 2029 with a budget of AED 20.5 bn, up from the AED 18 bn originally announced. Its 14 stations will connect to the existing Green and Red lines and serve growing districts including Mirdif, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai Creek Harbour, and International City. Hot on its heels is the Gold Line, approved in April at a cost of around AED 34 bn, which will run 42 km across 18 stations as Dubai’s first fully underground metro line. It is set to serve 1.5 mn people and be completed by September 2032, linking up with Etihad Rail at Meydan and Jumeirah Golf Estates.

Once both lines are complete, the metro network will span 162 km and 85 stations. The developments aren’t surface-level only, with a AED 2 bn Dubai Loop set to cover 19 stations and Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) looking into developing an underground public transport system.

It’s part of a wider liveability drive: Dubai is planning to become a 20-minute city, making 80% of essential services reachable within 20 minutes.

Abu Dhabi is focusing on the system behind the routes: Abu Dhabi’s Integrated Transport Center announced an investment of more than AED 300 mn in next-generation public transport systems. The plan includes an automated vehicle management system for real-time monitoring of buses and journeys and a digital fare collection system with more flexible payment options, including bank cards, digital payments, and QR codes.

The state of play

“Historically, our cities have largely been planned around private vehicles,” Martin Tillman, founder of transport and mobility planning advisory firm TMP Consult, tells us. That extends to quieter neighborhoods. “In lower-density neighborhoods […] it’s difficult for public transport to match the convenience of driving,” Monica Menendez, professor of civil and urban engineering at NYU Abu Dhabi and director of the CITIES Research Center, tells EnterpriseAM.

Proximity ≠ accessibility: Even stations that are physically close to residential areas can pose problems if passengers have to cross major roads or walk in the heat to get there, Tillman adds. He flags the importance of assessments like the Pedestrian Environment Review System (PERS), which assesses the quality of pedestrian environments and identifies improvements.

Within current plans, there are some efforts to plug the last-mile gap. Abu Dhabi’s Mohammed Bin Zayed City Station is positioned some 31 km away from business areas like Al Reem Island — although it is closer to the Musaffah area where more blue-collar employees work. A feeder shuttle service is on offer to get passengers to Al Reem Island, but buses go every 30-45 minutes and take around 55 minutes. That’s competing with a 28-minute car journey between the station and Al Reem Island (as tested by EnterpriseAM on Google Maps on a random Wednesday at 4pm).

Over in Dubai, it’s a similar story. A passenger getting off at Etihad Rail Dubai Station and heading into Business Bay will need to walk 5-10 minutes between the rail and metro stations, wait 3-5 minutes at peak times for a metro, and then make the roughly 36-minute journey into Business Bay. Adding in the final few minutes of walking to the end destination, that puts the journey at around 50-55 minutes, compared to a 30-minute drive (also tested on a random Wednesday at 4pm). A second station is set to open in Meydan, closer to downtown Dubai, and it will be integrated with the planned Dubai Metro Gold Line.

Elisabetta Cherchi, professor of civil and urban engineering at NYU Abu Dhabi, describes the plan to have a metro station within 500 meters as good but sees that distance isn’t the only deciding factor. “Major highways cutting through cities can act as physical and psychological barriers to walking and accessing public transport stations,” she says.

What it will take

“Expanding the network is only part of the answer,” Menendez says. Service frequency, shaded walking and cycling routes, unified payment systems, convenient connections, strong network coverage, and comfortable vehicles need to work together to make public transport practical, she says. “No single form of transport can serve every neighbourhood equally well; each becomes more useful when they all work together as one connected system.”

The ultimate impact depends on “the quality of first- and last-mile connections,” according to Tillman. He stresses integrating different systems to create an effective interchange experience, rather than focusing purely on the number of interchanges. That’s especially key for Etihad Rail, where passengers need convenient connections into local transport networks, he says.

“Accessibility is a critical point,” Cherchi tells us. She highlights the importance of frequent departures, connectedness covering the entire end-to-end journey, and integration allowing passengers to switch easily between different modes of transport.

Carrot and stick: When it comes to competing with the car in car-oriented contexts, “a mix of carrot (better public transport) and stick (deterrents for private cars) interventions is normally necessary to make public transport competitive compared to private vehicles,” Cherchi tells us. One example is dedicated lanes for road-based public transport, which avoid congestion caused by private vehicles and make public transport more competitive, she says.

A comprehensive approach is vital: Expanding road capacity can actually worsen congestion by triggering induced demand, encouraging more car use and undermining public transport, Tillman says. Land use, parking, road space, and public transport therefore need to be planned together. That includes integrating future developments into public transport planning so that nowhere falls outside the catchment area, he adds.

The projects most likely to move the needle are built on a tried-and-tested formula: Tillman sees the Blue Line as likely to be among the projects with the biggest impact on passenger numbers and urban mobility, noting that the existing metro has shown “there is significant demand for high-quality public transport in the UAE.” Etihad Rail is also likely to change inter-city travel, especially between Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and the Northern Emirates, he adds.

One size won’t fit all: In the Northern Emirates, “public transport networks need to be planned around these local needs rather than replicating solutions adopted in larger cities such as Dubai,” Tillman says. Sharjah has significant cross-emirate commuting demand, while Ras Al Khaimah has more dispersed destinations.

The outlook: “Changing habits in a car-based society takes time,” Menendez says. Tillman sees cars remaining the dominant option for journeys that currently involve “multiple or disconnected interchanges, lengthy walks or unreliable feeder services.”

Population growth could cut either way. “As the UAE’s population grows and roads become busier, reliable public transport with good coverage becomes more valuable,” Menendez tells us. But growth also brings more sprawl into lower-density areas, where she says feeder vehicles can help people reach main transport links.

Car usage is obviously widespread in the UAE today. However, “culture changes,” Cherchi tells us. The UAE’s population is heterogeneous, so some will adapt faster than others, she says, but a good transport system is the first and necessary step to trigger the shift.