Changing hands

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Iran floats a Hormuz reopening + AD Ports buyout closes early

Good morning, everyone. It’s a morning of assets changing hands. The CBUAE has given the National Bank of Egypt preliminary approval to take over Banque Misr's UAE branches, the same branches Washington moved to cut off from US correspondent banking last month over alleged Iran-linked transfers. Neither bank mentions the US measure, but the timing suggests the transaction could be a way out. We look at what it means for the branches and for the CBUAE’s own probe, which is still open.

The Iran war is still setting the backdrop for all of this. Iran is floating a Hormuz reopening if Washington lifts its blockade, but visible traffic through the strait fell to just two commodity vessels on Monday. Gulf leaders are in New York this week pushing for a seat at the table in the region’s future.

Abu Dhabi’s state investors are busy rearranging their holdings. L’imad is wrapping up its AD Ports buyout two weeks ahead of schedule, putting ADQ on track to hold nearly 99% before a squeeze-out. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, meanwhile, is buying into a Saudi private markets portfolio and is in talks to sell a Hong Kong hotel stake it has held for a decade. It’s the same pattern we’ve tracked all year: more secondaries, less legacy real estate.

The debt window is open, but it’s getting more expensive. Sharjah Islamic Bank is in the market with a USD 500 mn sukuk at an opening spread well above what it paid last year. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry has set a 5.06% coupon on its second retail T-sukuk, up from 4.30% on the debut.

PLUS- PhonePe is a step closer to launching in the UAE after winning a CBUAE nod for payments and wallets.

Delighted to welcome Hesham Mahran, CEO and managing director of Orange Egypt, as a guest speaker at the 2026 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum — the AI edition.

Appointed in August 2025, Mahran brings more than 27 years of experience across telecommunications, ICT, and digital transformation. As a long-standing Orange Egypt leader, he previously served as Chief Business Officer, driving the company’s expansion into cloud, cybersecurity, IoT, and enterprise connectivity. Under his leadership, Orange Egypt has become a key partner in Egypt’s digital transformation agenda, including “Ask Mariam,” Egypt’s first AI-powered airport assistant at Cairo International Airport. He has also been closely tied to national infrastructure projects and smart city development, including the New Administrative Capital Data Center.

Join us on 5 October in Cairo. Attendance is by invitation only, and we're close to full capacity.

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Tit-for-tat

Iran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, Reuters reports, citing a senior Iranian official. The proposal was delivered to the US through mediators last week, the official said.

The offer comes alongside a warning of further escalation: Iran’s military central command said it had been informed that the US was preparing to restart military operations with support from regional countries — warning that this would prompt Tehran to retaliate “without limitations and considerations.”

Meanwhile, only two commodity vessels crossed the strait on Monday, down from 10 the day before, Reuters reports, citing Kpler data. The two identified crossings were a Panama-flagged Supramax carrying minerals and a Liberia-flagged bulk carrier.

Higher oil flows have been masking a much thinner ship count for weeks. Over the weekend, only 17 commodity vessels crossed Hormuz, down from 37 the week before and well below a pre-war daily average of roughly 125 large commercial vessels. However, oil volumes have been recovering as producers increasingly shuttle crude through the strait before transferring it to other tankers outside the Gulf — with some 2.5 mn bbl / d expected to load through the Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers this month.

The security risk hasn’t eased either: Crude tanker LR Stephanie was struck by an unidentified projectile while entering Hormuz on Monday, injuring two crew members, and Adnoc-operated LPG tanker Al Maryah was hit while sailing outbound on Sunday. Both vessels continued without towing assistance, and responsibility for the attack remains unconfirmed.

AD Ports settlement moves up to 25 September

AD Ports Group’s buyout by L’imad is settling two weeks earlier than flagged, with L’imad’s ADQ set to hold 98.93% of the company once the transaction closes this Friday, according to a bourse filing (pdf). ADQ satisfied all conditions for its AED 6.25-a-share offer, the disclosure says, pulling settlement — including payment and share transfer — forward to 25 September from the previous 9 October deadline set earlier this month.

REMEMBER- We reported last week that ADQ’s tender offer secured 23.08% of AD Ports Group, building on its existing 75.42% stake to lift total ownership past 98.50% — clearing the 90%+1% threshold required under UAE takeover rules to force out remaining shareholders. The disclosure puts the final count a touch higher at 98.93%, without clarifying.

What’s next: The accelerated settlement date moves up the next deadline too. ADQ has 60 days from settlement to apply for a mandatory acquisition of the remaining 1.07% stake in AD Ports Group. Watch for a squeeze-out notice sometime soon, followed by a challenge period, after which a delisting will likely take place.

SIB is in the market with its sukuk

Sharjah Islamic Bank (SIB) completed the issuance of its five-year senior unsecured USD 500 mn no-grow sukuk, with pricing landing at 105 bps over US Treasuries — down 30 bps from initial price thoughts, according to a statement. The orderbook was 2.5x oversubscribed. The Reg S wakala senior unsecured sukuk falls under SIB’s USD 3 bn Trust Certificate Issuance Program and will list on Euronext Dublin and Nasdaq Dubai, Zawya reports.

SOUND SMART- The “no-grow” tag means SIB capped the raise at USD 500 mn regardless of how strong demand comes in — a more conservative stance than letting the book dictate size.

ADVISORS- SIB, rated A- by S&P and BBB+ by Fitch, mandated Ajman Bank, Al Rayan Bank, Arqaam Capital, Bank ABC, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), Kuwait International Bank, Mashreq Bank, QNB Capital, Standard Chartered, and Warba Bank as joint lead managers and bookrunners.

Retail sukuk gets its price tag

The UAE priced its second sovereign retail T-sukuk at a 5.06% annual coupon rate, with subscriptions opening today, according to a Finance Ministry statement. The government is targeting an AED 50 mn issuance, with coupon distributions scheduled for every six months. UAE citizens and residents have until 28 September to subscribe through Dubai Financial Market’s eIPO platform, the DFM and iVestor apps, or participating banks’ digital channels. Trading is scheduled to begin on Nasdaq Dubai on 1 October.

ADVISORS- Emirates NBD is the lead receiving bank, joined by Emirates Islamic, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Ajman Bank, Mashreq, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, and First Abu Dhabi Bank.

REFRESHER- As we reported last week, the second issuance extends the tenor from two years to five while retaining the AED 1k minimum investment. The debut drew AED 445 mn in orders — nearly 9x its original AED 50 mn target — prompting the Finance Ministry to double the sale to AED 100 mn. The new 5.06% rate is a boost from the debut’s 4.30%.

O Canada, XRG wants in

Adnoc’s International investment arm XRG is evaluating a potential stake in Shell’s LNG Canada export project, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The firm discussed with existing project backers buying a portion of their holdings, including PetroChina. Ongoing talks are preliminary and may not result in a final transaction, the sources said.

On the project: LNG Canada launched the British Columbia export facility last year — a roughly CAD 40 bn first phase with an annual capacity of 14 mn tons — backed by Chinese, Malaysian, Japanese, and Korean investors. The project’s second phase could secure approval as soon as next month, Reuters reported last week, citing unnamed sources. PetroChina was reportedly seeking to offload a portion of its shares to finance the planned expansion last July.

All part of the plan? XRG set its sights on upstream gas M&A and LNG moves in Canada and the US last year to expand its regional footprint, according to its board-approved five-year plan to reach a target of 20-25 mn tons per annum (mtpa) in capacity by 2035. Adnoc CEO of Upstream Musabbeh Al Kaabi said in June that the company is mulling investments in Canada, adding that XRG is interested in the country’s upstream and LNG sectors.

More global each year: XRG has been establishing a global platform backed by its parent firm’s USD 150 bn capex budget through 2030, targeting a top-five global position in gas and petrochemicals. The company has made several acquisitions in international projects over the past year, including in Venezuela, the US, Argentina, and Azerbaijan. The company is also eyeing potential investments in Australia.

Gulf sides against Carlyle in race for Lukoil

IHC still in race for Lukoil asset takeover: A bid by US financier Todd Boehly to acquire the international assets of Russian oil firm Lukoil has secured the backing of a consortium led by the UAE’s International Holding Company (IHC) and Allied Investment Partners, the Financial Times reports, citing unnamed sources. Boehly and the US International Development Finance Corporation are seeking majority board control, while another Gulf backer — Qatar’s bn’aire Al Khayyat family — is aiming to purchase a smaller portion. All other potential bidders have withdrawn, the sources said.

A long race for the prize: The bid aims to suplant US private equity firm Carlyle Group, which signed on to buy the Russian group’s international assets — valued at around USD 22 bn — in January, months after Washington hit Lukoil with sanctions. In February, Carlyle was reportedly in talks with IHC, Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala, and Adnoc’s XRG about stakes in the portfolio.

Bildco’s new name catches up with its dealmaking

Abu Dhabi National Company for Building Materials (Bildco) has officially rebranded as Abu Dhabi National Investment and Development (ADID), putting a new name to its push beyond building materials, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). Its ticker switched from BILDCO to ADID earlier this week, following shareholder approval in August and the completion of regulatory procedures. The company says the change reflects its broader investment and development mandate.

The name change has been a while in the making: Bildco completed its acquisition of a 50% stake in Dubai food trader AG Group in July, after acquiring tourism operator Arabian Nights Village in December. It is also pursuing a strategic stake in Al Khazna Ins. through a capital increase of up to AED 3 bn, subject to final agreements and regulatory approvals.

But building materials aren’t going anywhere: The company has also outlined plans to add 1 mn cbm of ready-mix concrete capacity in Abu Dhabi and signed on to a mixed-use development spanning an initial 10 mn sqm. The rebrand reflects a widening portfolio rather than an exit from its original business.

Reconstruction — any takers?

The US is looking to mobilize as much as USD 10 bn to rebuild energy infrastructure damaged in the region during the Iran war, seeking contributions from regional governments, including the UAE, the Wall Street Journal reports. The Trump administration floated a USD 5 bn investment in the reconstruction fund, seeking a matching contribution from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, and Jordan.

Data point

377 — that’s how many cases of fake Emiratization the Human Resources and Emiratization Ministry uncovered at 266 private-sector companies in 1H 2026, according to a post on X. The ministry says it has initiated litigation against the companies involved, adding that the cases are limited and don’t reflect a widespread problem in the labor market.

REMEMBER- The stakes are rising this year: 2026 is the final year of the current Emiratization push, which requires companies with 50 or more employees to fill 10% of skilled roles with Emiratis by year-end in 2% annual increments. Companies now face penalties of AED 120k a year for each quota position left unfilled from 1 July, while the government has extended the Nafis program through 2040 with expanded benefits for Emiratis working in the private sector.

For scale: Some 95% of companies covered by the rules hit their 1H targets, and more than 190k Emiratis now work across upwards of 32k private companies. The ministry began 1H compliance checks on 1 July using a digital inspection system designed to flag fake hires.

PSA

WEATHER- Temperatures will hit 40°C today in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with lows reaching 29-30°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Happening this week

The Middle East’s conflicts are taking center stage in New York this week, with the UAE and Gulf states looking for a way through the Iran war and its economic fallout. The UN General Assembly’s high-level debate opened yesterday and runs through Monday, with Iran, AI, climate action, and the race for the next UN chief on the agenda, The National reports. US President Donald Trump was among yesterday’s scheduled speakers, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian due today and the UAE on Saturday.

What’s on the UAE’s agenda? Protecting trade routes, energy flows, and supply chains amid the Iran war, alongside diplomacy on Sudan and Gaza, UAE Ambassador to the UN Mohamed Abushahab said. Abu Dhabi will also push for wider AI access and build momentum for December’s UN Water Conference, including a report examining AI’s water demands and potential solutions.

The meeting to watch for follow-through: Trump’s meeting with Gulf officials on Tuesday also included Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, Syria, and Lebanon. Iran appeared to take precedence in the closed-door summit, with Trump reiterating the US’ plan to continue “completely isolating Iran financially.”

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi has a UN gathering of its own: The 15th UN Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice kicks off at Adnec on Saturday, bringing representatives from more than 97 countries to tackle cybercrime, money laundering, organized crime, and AI’s growing role in crime and justice. The six-day forum will culminate in the Abu Dhabi Declaration, a UAE-led road map for international crime prevention over the next five years.

The big story abroad

The UN General Assembly meeting in New York has unsurprisingly dominated headlines. A key development was a three-hour meeting between US officials and Iranian envoys, which US President Donald Trump characterized as productive. This was the first direct US-Iran meeting since June, reviving hopes of a diplomatic resolution, despite threats by Trump to “annihilate” the Islamic Republic.

AI war spawns modestly priced models: Leading AI labs Anthropic and OpenAI launched more affordable AI models yesterday, responding to rising pressure from budget-friendly, open-weight rivals. OpenAI introduced the GPT-6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna — models with a 50% API price cut compared to GPT-5.6 — while Anthropic launched Claude Opus 5.5, offering a more token-efficient model that costs roughly 40% less to run than Opus 5.

New startup lands in AI space: San Francisco-based data startup Snorkel AI has secured USD 350 mn in new funding at a USD 3.5 bn valuation, driven by surging demand from frontier AI labs for complex training data and simulation environments. Snorkel's new agentic data platform pairs human experts with thousands of AI agents to automate dataset creation and quality control for frontier labs.

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CBUAE clears NBE to take over Banque Misr’s UAE branches weeks after US moved to cut them off

The Banque Misr UAE branches that Washington wants cut off from the US banking system could soon belong to someone else. The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) gave the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) preliminary approval to take over Banque Misr’s branches in the Emirates, the two state-owned lenders said in a joint statement (pdf). The move is set to fold both banks’ UAE operations into a single entity under UAE rules.

IN CONTEXT- Those are the same branches the US Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) proposed on 28 August to cut off from correspondent banking access to American institutions, though the decision is not yet finalized and a 30-day public comment window is still open. The US regulator alleges the branches moved some USD 1.8 bn between January 2024 and June 2026 for 103 companies it links to Iranian shadow-banking networks. The CBUAE launched its own investigation of the branches, looking at the same period covered by the US allegations. Banque Misr operates five branches in the UAE.

Behind the move

Why it matters: The statement makes no reference to the US measure, though the transfer looks like a way out of it. Moving the branches to NBE offers a regulatory route to dealing with the FinCEN proposal and is “possibly the only one available right now,” banking analyst Hany Abou El Fotouh tells EnterpriseAM. He says it’s hard to see the move happening without prior coordination between the two central banks. Customer rights and obligations would move with the branches to NBE, leaving it responsible for compliance going forward.

“A purely political solution” is how Motaz El Dreny, founding partner of Dreny & Co., describes the acquisition. Without it, Banque Misr would have exited the UAE entirely, leaving no Egyptian banking presence there. He says the acquisition was likely proposed by the UAE side itself, and that NBE was chosen “because it is the only bank capable of the acquisition, based on the unity of ownership” — both are fully state-owned.

The US Federal Reserve was likely briefed on the solutions under consideration, El Dreny says, to “confirm whether this solution achieves its purpose, which is lifting the sanctions.” He stops short of declaring the sanctions will be dropped but says “logic and reason indicate this step would not have been taken unless it was among the proposed solutions that would effectively lead to lifting the sanctions.” The speed of the CBUAE’s preliminary approval signals the urgency of presenting this to the Fed for final clearance, he argues.

The bigger picture

Banque Misr UAE is the first publicly named financial-sector target of Operation Economic Outcast, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s campaign to cut Iran’s financial connections by going after the banks, facilitators, and networks Washington says help Tehran evade sanctions. The FinCEN proposal came 10 days after the UAE halted all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, following Iranian missile fire toward the country on 18 August. The Emirates had been Iran’s largest trading partner and a key gateway for its access to goods and finance.

What it means for the UAE: The CBUAE’s special examination of the branches, a forensic lookback on the transactions of the companies Washington named, hasn’t been closed, and the statement doesn’t say how its findings will be handled once the branches change hands. The regulator has said it was weighing its options on the bank’s status if FinCEN goes ahead with the measure.

Adia’s latest moves show a fund buying cheap in private markets and selling out of aging real estate

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) is playing both sides of its portfolio this week. It’s buying into a rare slice of Saudi private markets exposure through the Saudi King Abdullah University of Science and Technology’s (Kaust) secondaries sale, and it’s in talks to sell a hotel stake it’s held in Hong Kong for a decade. Together, the moves read as confirmation of a pattern we’ve tracked through the year: Adia is expanding its private equity exposure through tactical secondaries while steadily pruning legacy direct real estate holdings that no longer earn their place in the book.

The fund is reportedly buying into a Saudi portfolio worth at least USD 1 bn that the Kaust endowment is offloading into the secondaries market, PEI Secondaries Investor reports, citing three sources it says are familiar with the matter. The book carries Asia-Pacific and China private markets exposure, and Jefferies is understood to be advising.

This is one more gear turning in a busy year for Adia’s secondaries machine. The USD 1.13 tn fund agreed in March to invest in a new real estate secondaries platform with Ardian. It has also served as a lead or co-lead investor on continuation vehicles for Beijing’s GL Capital and Hong Kong’s CDH Investments, alongside a cornerstone commitment to Apollo Global Management’s S3 platform.

BACKGROUND- Kaust joins a growing line of university endowments testing the secondaries market for liquidity, alongside the University of California, Yale, and Harvard. But this transaction doubles as one of the more direct capital links we’ve seen between an Emirati sovereign fund and a Saudi institutional balance sheet as both governments race to build out their own private-capital ecosystems. Little is publicly disclosed about the Kaust endowment, which is run out of Washington, DC by the Kaust Investment Management Company.

What we don’t know yet: exact pricing, the full manager list, or whether this is a one-off rebalancing or the start of a broader Kaust sell-down. Adia and Jefferies declined to comment, and Kaust didn’t respond to PEI Secondaries Investor’s questions.

The sovereign wealth fund is also in talks to sell its 50% stake in the Hyatt Regency Hong Kong in Kowloon to Singapore’s UOL Group — unwinding, alongside longtime JV partner New World Development, part of a hotel investment that was Adia’s biggest Asian property investment when it went in a decade ago, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The potential transaction would value the hotel alone at HKD 3 bn (USD 382 mn). Both Adia and UOL declined to comment, and New World didn’t respond to a request for comment.

BACKGROUND- Adia bought into the Hyatt Regency and two sister hotels — the Grand Hyatt Hong Kong and the Renaissance Harbour View — in 2015, paying HKD 18.5 bn (USD 2.4 bn) for a 50% stake alongside New World. The two refinanced a USD 1.21 bn loan tied to the three hotels in 2024.

Recalibration for Adia, a need for New World: Adia also sold a majority stake in a Shanghai office tower at a discount to its original asking price last year — part of a recalibration in China amid rising office vacancies and declining rental yields. The transaction also forms part of a broader optimization strategy to ration Adia’s global real estate portfolio, which has seen it divest stakes in UK shopping center Liverpool ONE and 33 hotels under Marriott International brands in the UK. New World is also looking to dispose of assets as it tries to address its debt, which has reached roughly HKD 122.7 bn (USD 15.6 bn) as of last year. It’s sold some HKD 68 bn in assets over the past four years and is chasing another HKD 13 bn this fiscal year — a campaign that also includes a planned mainland China REIT listing.

PhonePe eyes UAE payments, M42 expands in Central Asia, and Core42 and du bet on locally built cybersecurity

Indian digital app PhonePe secures CBUAE in-principle approval for two licenses

India’s PhonePe secured preliminary approval from the Central Bank of the UAE for two licenses: one for retail payment services and card schemes and another for stored value facilities, the company said in a press release (pdf). The first license would let PhonePe handle domestic payments, bill processing, and merchant QR acquiring, while the stored value facilities license covers prepaid instruments and native wallets. The approval allows India’s biggest digital payments app to start working toward the final regulatory sign-off it needs before it can commercially launch — a timeline CEO and Executive Director of International Payments Ritesh Pai told us will be disclosed once final regulatory approvals are granted.

PhonePe is positioning itself to run merchant acquiring, wallets, and remittances on one platform, Pai tells EnterpriseAM, aiming in particular at SMEs it argues are currently underserved.

IN CONTEXT- PhonePe already lets Indian travelers pay via Neopay and Network International terminals through a tie-up with NPCI International (NIPL). The new licenses, once final, would take it further, adding native wallets, prepaid instruments, and a plug-in into domestic rails Aani and Jaywan.

M42 adds another stop to its Central Asia healthcare map

M42 takes Diaverum into Kyrgyzstan: Abu Dhabi health tech group M42 opened its first clinic under its dialysis arm Diaverum in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, state news agency Wam reports. The clinic opens with 15 dialysis stations running three shifts a day, six days a week, and has room to expand to 20. Diaverum is entering a market where an estimated 500k adults, or 10.8% of the adult population, live with chronic kidney disease.

Kazakhstan provides the blueprint: Diaverum entered Kazakhstan a decade ago with nine clinics and has since become its largest private dialysis provider, operating more than 55 clinics and employing over 1k people.

Central Asia is becoming a bigger play for M42. Beyond renal care, the group has partnered with Uzbekistan’s Health Ministry to explore prospects under the country’s genome program.

Core42, TII plan to develop cybersecurity tech

Core42 partners with TII to build home-grown cyber defenses: Core42, G42’s AI infrastructure and sovereign cloud arm, signed a strategic collaboration agreement with the Technology Innovation Institute (TII), the applied research arm of Abu Dhabi’s Advanced Technology Research Council, to develop UAE-built cybersecurity tech, according to a press release (pdf). The two will co-develop, test, and deploy security technologies across Core42’s sovereign cloud and Compass, its generative and agentic AI platform.

What’s on the table: The scope covers hardware security modules, confidential computing, encrypted AI inferencing, secure key management and distribution, data protection, encryption, and trusted computing. In practice, that’s the layer that protects data, models, and keys while they’re being stored, moved, and processed.

Why it matters: Core42 is pushing its definition of sovereignty past data residency. Sovereignty “means more than deciding where data and infrastructure reside,” Core42 SVP Rajeev Nair said. It also means building the technology that protects them. Keeping sensitive AI workloads on UAE soil means less if the security stack around them is still imported, and this agreement aims to build parts of that stack locally. It’s still early days, though: the release frames the tie-up as a way to “explore” and evaluate the technologies and gives no timeline, investment figure, or deployment target.

Du prepares for quantum risk

Du brings post-quantum security to its National Hypercloud: Emirati telco du signed an MoU with Abu Dhabi-based QuantumGate to run QuantumGate’s post-quantum cryptography on du Tech’s National Hypercloud, according to a press release. Du will sell the technology to government entities across the UAE, while QuantumGate will provide the post-quantum expertise and technical support. Data, keys, and cryptographic control will stay within the UAE.

The threat they’re preparing for: Future quantum computers are expected to be able to break the public-key cryptography that secures most digital systems today. The partners are pitching the agreement as a way for government and critical entities to get ahead of that risk.

REMEMBER- The UAE has been dealing with cyber threats in the present too. It fended off organized cyberattacks on its aviation, energy, and education sectors last month.

Where the tech comes from: QuantumGate was spun out in 2024 by VentureOne, the commercialization arm of the Advanced Technology Research Council, and its products run on cryptographic libraries developed by TII.

Iran war energy shock puts Africa’s rate-cut cycle on ice — somewhat

The Iran war’s energy shock is putting Africa’s rate-cut cycle on ice, but Nigeria just broke ranks. The Central Bank of Nigeria cut its benchmark rate by 350 bps to 23% yesterday, the biggest cut in its history, when analysts had expected a third straight hold at 26.5%. Morocco’s Bank Al-Maghrib held at 2.25%, as expected. The two were the first of 11 African central banks due to decide over two weeks. Going in, a Bloomberg roundup of economists’ forecasts had seven holding, three hiking, and only Zambia cutting. Surging energy costs, food price risks, and tighter US monetary policy are making it harder to ease, even where inflation has started to retreat.

Nigeria’s cut comes on the back of slowing inflation. Headline inflation dipped to 15.39% in August from 15.43% in July, its third straight monthly decline. That still leaves the benchmark rate well above inflation, even after the cut.

Egypt is expected to stay put. EY Africa Chief Economist Angelika Goliger sees the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) holding its overnight deposit rate at 19% through the rest of 2026, with cuts more likely next year, given still-high inflation and the country’s exposure to regional and energy shocks.

But the consensus is showing cracks: A majority of analysts surveyed by EnterpriseAM expect the CBE to hold rates at Thursday’s meeting, but HC Securities’ Heba Monir thinks a 100-bp hike is in order given anticipated 4Q inflation pressures. August urban inflation unexpectedly eased to 14.5%, supported by falling food prices, even as core inflation edged up to 14.9%. The CBE has held for four consecutive meetings since February’s 100-bp cut.

Morocco’s hold looks set to last. Inflation averaged just 0.3% over the first eight months of the year. Oxford Economics’ François Conradie expects Bank Al-Maghrib to keep its rate at 2.25% for its next three meetings as fuel price increases feed through and the disinflationary benefit of a good harvest fades.

Elsewhere, the policy divide is widening: Ghana, Mozambique, Kenya, and Tanzania are expected to stand pat. South Africa and its ZAR-pegged neighbors Eswatini and Lesotho may each raise rates by 25 bps, which would take South Africa’s benchmark to 7.25%. Zambia is still expected to cut, with easing inflation creating room.

The oil price math is getting harder to ignore: Brent broke through USD 100 a barrel earlier this month, compared with an average of around USD 85 when most African central banks last met, Bloomberg reports. The conflict has restricted oil, diesel, and fertilizer supplies, while a potentially severe El Niño threatens harvests. Food accounts for as much as half of consumer price baskets in some African economies, leaving policymakers exposed to both energy and agricultural shocks.

And the Federal Reserve is adding another layer of pressure: September’s US rate increase — its first since 2023 — raises the risk of capital outflows, currency weakness, and imported inflation for African economies. That gives central banks an incentive to maintain sizable spreads between policy rates and inflation rather than cutting at every available opening. “Instead high nominal rates have become a buffer,” Equity Group Holdings Chief Economic Adviser Charlie Robertson told the business news service.

BACKGROUND- Governments are absorbing some of the shock themselves: The number of countries introducing fuel subsidies more than doubled in the four months to the start of September, from 16 to 38, while 94 governments now offer some form of consumer energy support, up from 56, according to a Financial Times analysis of International Energy Agency data. That’s helping keep a lid on inflation in places like Morocco, where transport subsidies and frozen butane and electricity prices have cushioned the oil spike, albeit at a growing cost to public finances as borrowing costs rise.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets gained earlier today, with Japan’s Nikkei rising 1.4% and South Korea’s Kospi gaining around 1%. Wall Street was mixed upon closing, with Nasdaq notching a record high boosted by AI-related stocks.

ADX	10,232	+1.3% (YTD: +2.4%)
DFM	5,997	+0.6% (YTD: -0.8%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,940	+0.5% (YTD: +1.1%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.7% o/n	5% 1 yr
TASI	10,681	+0.0% (YTD: +1.8%)
EGX30	54,931	-0.1% (YTD: +31.3%)
S&P 500	7,765	+0.0% (YTD: +13.4%)
FTSE 100	10,708	-0.3% (YTD: +7.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,324.72	+0.1% (YTD: +9.1%)
Brent crude	USD 99.25	-1.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.04	+2.4%
Gold	USD 4,401	+0.6%
BTC	USD 86,111	-0.6% (YTD: -1.7%)
Lunate JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.59	+0.0% (YTD: -0.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.31	+0.2% (YTD: -1.7%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	14.21	-4.4% (YTD: -5.0%)

CALENDAR

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 1.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 1 bn. The index is up 2.4% YTD.

In the green: Sharjah Cement and Industrial Development (+4.4%), Abu Dhabi National Hotels (+4%), and Space42 (+3.7%).

In the red: Alpha Data (-3.5%), Agility Global (-2.6%), and NMDC Energy (-2.1%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.6% on turnover of AED 684.4 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai rose 0.5%.

SEPTEMBER

22-23 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): ACT Middle East Treasury Summit, Grand Hyatt, Dubai.

22-24 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

26 September–1 October (Saturday–Thursday): 15th UN Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice, Adnec Centre, Abu Dhabi.

28-29 September (Monday-Tuesday): Al Ain Future Business Forum, Adnec, Al Ain, Abu Dhabi.

29-30 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): AFCM Annual Conference, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

1-2 October (Thursday-Friday): MEIRA Annual Conference, Atlantis the Royal, Dubai.

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

5-7 October (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

14-15 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Sharjah Investment Forum, Jawaher Reception and Convention Center, Sharjah.

13-15 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual Meeting of Global Future Leaders, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

21 October (Wednesday): Reuters NEXT Gulf, St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, Abu Dhabi.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

30 October (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

2-6 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 November (Monday-Thursday): EMEA Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education Conference, Dubai College of Tourism, Dubai.

9-13 November (Monday-Friday): World Congress of Military Medicine, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

16-18 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Police Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

18-19 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Touchdown Middle East 2026, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

25-26 November (Saturday-Sunday): Doers Summit, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

4-6 December (Friday-Sunday): Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Al Maryah Island, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Water & Power Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday) Middle East & North Africa Business Aviation Association Show, DWC, Dubai Airshow Site.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
31 May-2 June (Monday-Wednesday): RailX Dubai, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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CBUAE clears NBE to take over Banque Misr’s UAE branches weeks after US moved to cut them off

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PhonePe eyes UAE payments, M42 expands in Central Asia, and Core42 and du bet on locally built cybersecurity

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