Egypt and India propped up the region's rising share of global FDI in 1H 2026

It’s been a good FDI year so far for Egypt and India, but not so much for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The five markets together, however, saw greenfield investment remain broadly flat in 1H 2026, even as global activity fell 38% to USD 538.2 bn, lifting their share of global FDI to 10.5% from 6.5% a year earlier, according to Emirates NBD Research (pdf).

Fewer projects, bigger cheques: Average project value across the five economies rose to USD 56 mn from USD 33 mn, driven by AI infrastructure in India and Chinese and Gulf megaprojects in Egypt.

India was one of the clearest winners: Greenfield FDI rose 23% y-o-y to USD 32.8 bn, doubling its share of global flows to 6.1%. Data centers did much of the lifting, with AWS alone accounting for around 40% of recorded inflows after announcing a USD 8.3 bn investment in Maharashtra.

Egypt had the fastest growth: Egypt’s investment plans surged 77% to USD 12.4 bn even as project announcements moderated. China became the country’s largest source of greenfield FDI at USD 4.9 bn, while UAE commitments rose almost tenfold to USD 4.3 bn, helped by Majid Al Futtaim’s USD 3.1 bn Cairo development. The China number is only going up from here, it seems — during Xi’s Cairo visit earlier this month, we saw agreements for a third-phase expansion of the Teda industrial zone and a widening cluster of Chinese tire manufacturers in Sokhna.

Not everyone bucked the slowdown: UAE inflows fell 46% y-o-y to USD 5.3 bn, with activity dipping in March before picking up through the second quarter to nearly triple its March level. The country counted the highest number of project inflows after India, at 360, with Dubai accounting for around seven in 10 projects. Saudi inflows also dropped 59% to USD 3.8 bn, with investments shifting towards industrial supply chains and away from service projects. Meanwhile, Turkey recorded a 39% slowdown in inward investment to USD 2.1 bn.

BACKGROUND- The UAE drop is a sharp reversal from the record USD 48.24 bn the country pulled in for all of 2025 — and it’s close to what UNCTAD warned about back in July, when it flagged energy and infrastructure investment — the same categories driving the UAE’s prior boom — as the most exposed if the war dragged into 2026. Saudi Arabia’s own Gastat data also showed net FDI cooling through 1Q.

There is a disclaimer, though: “First-half 2026 figures probably understate total cross-border deals: data aggregators append deals over time, and comparable figures from the first half of last year were later revised up by around a quarter,” the report explains. That means that the full-year data might still come in higher.

The Gulf story is increasingly outbound: UAE companies poured an estimated USD 11 bn of greenfield investment abroad, roughly double the USD 5.3 bn flowing into the country, led by renewables and real estate — though it’s still “far below” its outbound FDI in 1H 2025 of USD 92 bn, suggesting UAE companies pulled back on overseas investment as hard as foreign investors pulled back on the UAE, if not harder. Saudi Arabia was the only market tracked where outbound investment increased, rising 90% to USD 3.3 bn as renewables developers pushed into Spain and Italy.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian stocks fell in early trading, with South Korea's Kospi down 1.4% and Japan's Nikkei down 1%. The losses track Wall Street performance, as surging oil prices stoked inflation concerns and as Treasury yields rose.

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 569.6 mn. The index is down 2% YTD.

In the green: Agility The Public Warehousing Company (+10.8%), Takaful Emarat (+4.0%), and Commercial Bank of Dubai (+3.3%).

In the red: Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (-2.9%), Al Mal Capital REIT (-1.9%), and Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation (-1.9%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.9% on turnover of AED 1.3 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.3%.