Schools have hit their enrollment targets heading into the school year, but it’s all about who actually shows up

Schools in the UAE are heading into FY 2026/27 with the majority of their student base intact and teacher retention rates broadly stable compared to previous years, according to major school operators we spoke to. Gems Education, Taaleem, and Nord Anglia — which together run dozens of the UAE’s biggest premium and mid-market schools — all tell EnterpriseAM that the conflict-driven exodus of families and teachers doesn’t seem to have materialized at the scale anyone was budgeting for in the spring.

Editor’s note: For perspective, Gems Education operates 45 schools in the UAE, while DFM-listed Taaleem operates 14 premium schools and 34 government partnership schools nationwide. Nord Anglia, the only non-homegrown firm of the bunch, has four schools: two in Dubai and two in Abu Dhabi.

By the numbers: Retention rates stood at around 85% for Gems Education, CEO Dino Varkey tells EnterpriseAM, broadly flat y-o-y, while Taaleem CEO Alan Williamson tells us their premium schools have added around 4k students when accounting for the 10% annual churn that usually takes place. Nord Anglia, meanwhile, says more than 90% of students have returned, and the waitlist has filled the remaining seats fast enough that its biggest school, Nord Anglia School Dubai, is full again for September. Even in segments where there was more concern — like boarding for Nord Anglia and early-years education for Taaleem — the numbers have bounced back.

The harder-hit segments have recovered: Nord Anglia provides one of only two boarding offerings in the UAE at its Swiss International Scientific School Dubai, and despite expectations that they would have only half as many boarders this year, Regional Managing Director at Nord Anglia Elizabeth Lamb tells us they’ve hit their target for boarders. It’s a similar story for nurseries: Taaleem’s Kids First Group nurseries lost roughly AED 30 mn in net income at the peak of the disruption — a function of how nurseries bill, with many parents paying monthly rather than termly and no online pivot equivalent to what K-12 schools managed. “There was a time in the conflict where we thought Kids First Group this year will be loss-making,” Williamson said. Instead, the division is now forecasting AED 120 mn-range net income — a sharp recovery, though still below an original AED 150-160 mn target.

The numbers mask some nuance, though: While retention was stable, schools did lose some people when the conflict hit. “About 1% of our student base had indicated that they were relocating back to their home country […] of that, about 30-40% have already come back or indicated their willingness to come back,” Varkey says. “Even now, I think some families are still thinking, ‘let’s give it one more week and just check everything remains quiet,’” Lamb says.

The next few weeks will tell all: “I’m optimistic, but I will know for certain a week into September,” Williamson says, explaining that a lot of families extend their summer vacations and have sent in security deposits to hold their seats. Varkey adds: “We’ve achieved well over 90% of the new sales we need to achieve [...], but we have an enrollment cycle that effectively starts the middle of August through to the end of September where we would be adding a number of students, so it’ll be another few weeks before I have an affirmative answer on how the year is looking.”

Staffing is solid too

Teacher attrition is actually better than most years: GEMS reported turnover of 16-17% this year against a norm of 25% for international schools — its lowest in a decade — alongside an employee net promoter score of 54. Taaleem’s CEO said the group typically loses about 15% of staff annually against a UAE-wide average of 20%. This year it lost 9%, of which only 1 percentage point was tied directly to conflict-related departures. Nord Anglia’s Lamb, meanwhile, said the group is starting the year with a full roster of staff across its UAE schools, though she acknowledged some newer or younger teachers chose not to return after the initial missile activity.

The reasons? Everyone we spoke to agreed that the solid retention rates are a testament to how much less transient the UAE has become as a destination for expats. Lamb attributes this to lifestyle perks and career progression prospects, while both Varkey and Williamson point to the booming property market as something that has helped anchor people in the UAE in a way that wasn’t as common a decade ago. GEMS’ data backs the same shift from a different angle: average student tenure across its portfolio has risen from 2.7 years to almost six.

There are still headwinds

Dubai’s education authority, the Knowledge and Human Development Authority, froze private school fees for the FY 2026/27 academic year. That’s after an up to 2.35% increase last year, depending on the school’s inspection rating. “That puts some pressure on the business because we’re having to deliver the same high quality at last year’s costs,” Lamb explains, adding that the company’s group-wide earnings-sharing is cushioning the Middle East division through “a rough patch,” even though the impact on the balance sheet was minimal.

Williamson also pointed to rising costs, including teacher wages and prices of iPads and other materials, as a problem that a 2.5% increase would’ve been able to help solve, but he admits the fee increase would be “the icing on the cake” rather than the difference between making a gain or suffering a loss. He credits that to increased revenues at recently opened schools, where students are entering higher year groups and paying a higher fee as a result.

Construction was deferred on some new projects, though growth and expansion plans remain on track. Nord Anglia had to defer several projects planned for FY 28 to FY 29, attributing the delay to supply chain disruptions, while Varkey says the firm “lost a couple of months of construction,” though he still expects projects to be delivered on time. Williamson managed to open Harrow Dubai as planned for this school year while hitting his enrollment target. He also expects upcoming projects, including Dubai British School Ghaf Woods and Harrow Abu Dhabi, to be delivered on time.

All three firms are keeping their investment plans on track. Gems announced plans to invest AED 2 bn in new capacity over the next three years across Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Meanwhile, Williamson tells us Taaleem is putting in between AED 1.5-2 bn toward growth, with some 5-6 potential M&A targets lined up for Kids First Group and more premium school openings planned across its different brands.

The general sentiment among school heads? This year will be one of growth, but not at the high margins seen over the past few years. “We’re probably not going to see the growth rate or the momentum that we’ve witnessed over the course of the last three to four years post-Covid,” Varkey says. But both Varkey and Williamson remain “optimistic,” even if not as optimistic as they were pre-conflict. For Nord Anglia, a global group — which counts Dubai Holding and Mubadala as backers — the Middle East is still a growth story: “We see this current conflict as a blip […] we’re still fully committed to the UAE and the Middle East region, and we still think it’s going to be one of our major growth regions,” Lamb says.