Post détente

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Adnoc to trim Asia sales + Space42 looking to double revenues by 2030

Good morning, everyone. The UAE’s détente with Iran has come to an abrupt end, with the fallout coming at a less-than-ideal time. We take a look at what the UAE’s response means and what analysts are keeping an eye out for.

The aviation sector is also still feeling the knock-on effects of the war. UAE airfares could stay elevated through much of 2026, and Gulf hubs are exposed to longer flight paths, thinner capacity, and higher fuel costs.

On the energy front, Adnoc is trimming spot sales to Asia by around 5% for August and September in a move that has already pushed Murban premium higher. Space42 is also looking to its international business to bring in a higher share of revenues amid a wider target to double its top line by 2030.

Adnoc to trim Asia sales

Adnoc is trimming spot sales to Asia — and Murban is already pricing it in. Abu Dhabi’s state oil company plans to cut the volume of crude it sells to Asian customers in August and September by around 5%, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The cuts affect only over-the-counter spot cargoes and follow maintenance at some onshore oil fields, one source said. Physical barrels traded through ICE Futures Abu Dhabi are unaffected, but the move has pushed Murban’s premium higher.

Why it matters: Murban is Adnoc’s flagship grade and a reference price for Asia’s sour crude buyers. It’s a sign of tighter supply and a shift from earlier this summer, when Adnoc used Hormuz-related disruptions to gain market share. The UAE’s share of Middle East crude shipments to Asia rose to 32% in June and 27% in July, up from 20% a year earlier, according to Kpler data cited by Baird Maritime.

BACKGROUND- Adnoc has sold more than 108 mn barrels of spot crude to Asian refiners across eight tenders since June, with recent cargoes fetching premiums of up to USD 10.5 / bbl over Dubai. The sales have continued even as Hormuz traffic has thinned sharply — just five commodity vessels crossed the strait last weekend, down from 31 the weekend before — following attacks on three Adnoc-operated tankers in the strait this month.

Space42 targets revenue growth from int’l business

Space42 is looking to scale its business as demand grows for satellite connectivity and geospatial intelligence, Managing Director Karim Michel Sabbagh told AGBI. The space tech firm is aiming for a greater revenue share from commercial activity, as its current top line is skewed toward government business.

It also expects the international share of its top line to reach a third by 2030, as its UAE business currently accounts for 90% of total revenue.

The Iran war has been helping business in a way by underscoring the need for stronger alternatives to terrestrial options for critical infrastructure operators.

PSA

WEATHER- Temperatures are going down slightly to highs of 40-41°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, but it still feels closer to 48-49°C, according to our favorite weather app. Temperatures will cool to 31°C in Abu Dhabi and 32° in Dubai.

The big story abroad

The state of US debt has taken top billing on the front pages, after reaching a record USD 40 tn — rising by USD 3 tn over the past year, the fastest ever pace excluding the pandemic years. Rising spending on social programs and interest, compounded by tax cuts, is stoking investor fears of an impending US fiscal crisis. The US Treasury stepped in with measures for long-term bonds, offering some relief to global investor jitters over surging yields.

Over in Silicon Valley, semiconductor group Marvell will help Google develop in-demand custom chips, and has offered the tech giant the right to buy up to USD 12.2 bn in Marvell shares. Companies are turning to in-house chips like Google’s Tensor Processing Units for cheaper AI inference compared to costly Nvidia GPUs.

And in Asian markets: South Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix announced plans to buy back KRW 40 tn in stock, a move to stabilize its stock price following a steep two-month decline of over 50%. Analysts view the measure as an effort to appease local retail investors upset after new share issuances for the company's US listing diluted their holdings.

In the defense space: JPMorgan Chase co-led a USD 1 bn funding round for missile-making startup Castelion, alongside Andreessen Horowitz and Carlyle. The fresh capital will fund the development of a larger hypersonic strike weapon and a mass-produced air missile defense, signaling blue-chip interest in the booming defense sector.

Meanwhile, in Hollywood: BlackRock’s HPS and Oaktree Capital Management have seized MBS Group, a firm specializing in lighting and rigging for Hollywood films, erasing as much as USD 900 mn in debt. The firms converted debt into around USD 100 mn in equity and agreed to invest USD 40 mn more in the global entertainment provider.

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Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

The two-month UAE-Iran détente didn't survive its first direct hit

The UAE severed trade and financial ties with Iran late Tuesday, after the first direct attack on its territory in months — even as Tehran denied involvement. The timing could hardly be worse: the move lands two weeks before schools reopen and expats return from summer travel, just as the country was easing back toward normalcy after the war’s economic toll.

The move put an abrupt end to a détente that some reports said came after the UAE offered Iran “financial facilities”— a claim that UAE officials have now rejected publicly. Dr. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, took to X to say those claims were false and came from “desperate media campaigns” that he says have also claimed the UAE is canceling residencies for people without notice. This refers to rumors on social media and in some press about Egyptian workers losing their residency while they were away from the UAE on leave.

The timing of the missile attack means the stakes are high: “With September around the corner and residents and businesses set to return to the UAE after the summer, missile attacks stand to cause reputational as well as physical damage to the country at a time when it is trying to rebuild after the economic losses of the war,” Amandeep Ahuja, MENA geopolitical analyst and strategic advisor, tells us.

The UAE’s unusually quick response was a major signal that the UAE will act quickly — and decisively — in response to any moves from Iran. Its tool of choice remains economic leverage, Ahuja says. This comes at a time when inflation in Iran is running at a high of 69% this year and economic pressure has real leverage. Former US ambassador to Oman and Middle East policy analyst Marc Sievers agrees, framing the move as an extension of the US’ campaign of economic pressure against Iran.

Washington and Abu Dhabi may be playing the long game

US President Donald Trump and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan spoke yesterday, and UAE National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed later spoke with Secretary of State Marco Rubio about “continued US-UAE coordination to hold Iran and its terrorist proxies accountable for ongoing attacks.”

This makes it the start of a long game. “If this was in fact coordinated with the United States, which I believe it was, I think this is part of the longer-term effort to use economic tools to force the Iranian regime to give up its efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz, and to move on to serious negotiations about the nuclear file,” Sievers says. US-Iran talks have stalled, and with no ceasefire renewal and no new talks scheduled, no one is blinking first.

We’ll be watching whether Iran returns to the negotiating table or plans to follow through on threats of aggressive military escalation following the UAE’s move to sever trade ties once again. Ahuja expects “back-channel negotiations” with Iranian authorities to possibly accompany the trade freeze and says it’s likely that the freeze “quietly reverses itself” with time. “But the fragility of the ceasefire and the dynamics within the region may push the UAE to now, with perhaps a more assertive stance, either engage in and/or lead broader negotiations or initiate bilateral arrangements that can ensure the continuity of life and business in the country.”

Airfares are set to stay elevated through 2026, even under a best-case ceasefire scenario

UAE airfares could stay elevated through much of 2026 as Gulf aviation works through longer flight paths, thinner capacity, and higher fuel costs, according to a Tourise and Oxford Economics report (pdf). Even under a positive resolution scenario, global fares could remain 5-10% above pre-war expectations this year — with the pressure likely to show up more clearly later in 2026 as fuel hedges and advance bookings delay the pass-through to ticket prices.

Why the UAE is exposed: Gulf hubs handle around 14% of global transit traffic, while roughly 20% of Europe-Asia travel typically connects through the region. The disruption has already hit capacity hard, with Middle Eastern carriers operating around 50% fewer flights y-o-y in March. Forward bookings through major Gulf hubs for 2Q and 3Q fell by more than 40%. International capacity to and from Middle Eastern countries was also nearly 40% lower y-o-y in April, while passenger demand fell almost 50%.

A reallocation story rather than a demand collapse: The report says travelers are more likely to adapt than cancel, shifting toward shorter booking windows, regional and domestic trips, and stronger value-hunting. Under a ceasefire scenario, global travel is still expected to grow 6% in 2026, down from a pre-war expectation of 8%. If hostilities resume, global travel could fall 1%, while sustained disruption could drive a 3% decline.

REMEMBER- Airlines are leaning harder on flexibility to keep travelers booking as fare pressure lingers. Emirates had already offered unlimited no-charge date changes on Dubai flights and cut refund fees on some fares, while the UAE recently scrapped visa entry fees for Indian travelers coming to Abu Dhabi for at least three nights.

Even a ceasefire may not mean cheaper tickets right away. Airlines would still need time to restore capacity, unwind reroutings, and rebuild schedules. If the disruption drags on, fares could rise by up to another 10% in 2027, while some carriers could bake alternative long-haul routings into their networks — testing the Gulf hub model beyond the immediate crisis.

DTC and Bolt add vehicles to platform, DP World taps Egypt’s Edecs for Tanzania’s busiest port, Parkin heads to Egypt, ADIB backs Glasgow logistics asset

Dubai Taxi adds 1.6k Arabia Taxi vehicles to Bolt platform

Dubai Taxi Company (DTC) and Bolt are expanding the supply of taxis available through ride-hailing amid rising demand, according to a press release. The two signed a partnership with Arabia Taxi to incorporate 1.6k of the latter’s taxis into Bolt’s platform for passengers in Dubai.

IN CONTEXT- DTC and Bolt announced their expansion into Abu Dhabi earlier this year, as part of DTC’s wider expansion drive after its AED 1.5 bn takeover of rival operator National Taxi. Bolt initially entered the UAE after a partnership with DTC back in 2024.

ADIB backs Glasgow logistics asset

Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) has provided an AED 133 mn shariah-compliant financing facility for a logistics warehouse in Glasgow, Scotland, according to a press release via Zawya. The five-year facility was lent to Blacksand and is the lender’s third facility for the Bahrain-based investment firm.

The asset: The 620.1k sq ft asset is a key distribution hub for one of the UK’s largest supermarket chains.

DP World taps Egypt’s Edecs to upgrade Tanzania’s busiest port

DP World tapped Cairo-based Edecs Group for a contract to redevelop seven operational yards at Terminal 1 of Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port — a facility operated by DP World — as the gateway expands capacity to handle growing regional trade, according to a press release. The port handles over 90% of the country’s maritime trade and is a key hub for East and Central Africa.

The modernization is already showing up in container volumes. Terminal 1 handled a record 46.5k TEUs last month, compared with 13.7k TEUs in May 2024 — more than a threefold increase. The port’s annual throughput now stands at more than 30 mn tons.

Parkin heads to Egypt

Dubai-listed parking operator Parkin is entering the Egyptian market after inking an MoU to explore integrating its smart parking and mobility solutions into assets owned by Modon Misr for Asset & Facility Management, Mwasalat Misr, and Redcon Properties, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The partnership could see solutions like automatic number plate recognition, AI-enabled parking cameras, barrierless parking, digital permits, and parking management platforms deployed.

Any concrete move into Egypt would mark the parking operator’s first expansion outside the UAE. At home, it expanded into Sharjah this year and has been working on broadening its footprint across private developments, signing a five-year agreement late last year with Damac Properties to manage around 3.6k parking spaces across its portfolio in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

OpenAI’s 2Q revenue growth trails Anthropic as losses widen

OpenAI just posted the kind of quarter that disappoints some shareholders, even as the company continues to grow at a substantial scale. The AI research and tech company behind ChatGPT saw losses deepen and its operating margin worsen in 2Q. The top line rose 18% q-o-q to USD 6.7 bn, up from USD 5.7 bn, while its operating loss widened to USD 12.3 bn, up 32% from USD 9.3 bn, The Wall Street Journal reports.

How the competition fared: Anthropic, the AI firm behind Claude, more than doubled its top line to USD 11.6 bn over the same period and swung to a small operating income, marking the first quarter it outpaced its older rival.

The reshuffle upstairs doesn’t help the optics: CRO Denise Dresser is out after less than a year, joining former COO Brad Lightcap and product chief Fidji Simo (who was once seen as a possible successor to sitting CEO Sam Altman) on the list of executives who left ahead of a much-anticipated IPO.

REFRESHER- OpenAI said on June 8 that it had recently submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement for a potential US IPO while stressing that it has not determined a listing timetable. Reuters had previously reported that the company was targeting a valuation of up to USD 1 tn and that a debut could come as early as September. In late June, Reuters reported that OpenAI was considering delaying its public debut until 2027, citing a New York Times report. Reuters also said CFO Sarah Friar told some associates that the company was aiming for a 2027 listing.

None of this changes the fact that Abu Dhabi’s MGX is an OpenAI investor. One quarter of slower revenue growth and deepening losses does not itself determine the durability of a USD 852 bn valuation. But it raises the question of whether OpenAI can sustain the growth needed to support that valuation, particularly as Anthropic has overtaken it on quarterly revenue.

Qatar’s QIA is an Anthropic investor, having first invested in September 2025 and increased its stake in the company’s USD 30 bn Series G financing. Meanwhile, MGX has investments in OpenAI, xAI, and Anthropic. What MGX is exposed to is execution risk across multiple leading AI companies, right as Anthropic — which reported a small operating income in the quarter and faster revenue growth from a smaller base — has strengthened its competitive position.

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MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets made notable gains in early trading, with South Korea’s Kospi gaining 4.8%, followed by Japan’s Nikkei at around 1.3%. The gains coincide with news of US Treasury bond buybacks and SK Hynix’s stock repurchase.

ADX	10,006	-0.9% (YTD: +0.1%)
DFM	5,842	-0.3% (YTD: -3.4%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,846	-1.2% (YTD: -0.9%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.5% o/n	4.2% 1 yr
TASI	10,926	+0.1% (YTD: +4.2%)
EGX30	54,513	-1.4% (YTD: +30.3%)
S&P 500	7,708	+0.2% (YTD: +12.6%)
FTSE 100	10,743	+0.1% (YTD: +8.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,444	-0.4% (YTD: +11.2%)
Brent crude	USD 91.62	+0.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.78	-1.3%
Gold	USD 4,576	+0.7%
BTC	USD 69,749	+8.0% (YTD: -20.4%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.56	-1.1% (YTD: -5.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.53	-0.3% (YTD: +0.9%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	14.89	-6.0% (YTD: -0.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.9% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. The index is up 0.1% YTD.

In the green: Fujairah Cement Industries (+7.0%), Al Khaleej Investment (+3.9%), and National Bank of Umm Al Qaiwain (+3.2%).

In the red: Invest Bank (-3.1%), First Abu Dhabi Bank (-2.8%), and Gulf Cement Co. (-2.5%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.3% on turnover of AED 598.9 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 1.2%.

CALENDAR

AUGUST

20-23 August (Thursday-Sunday): JPEX Entertainment Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

21 August (Friday): AD Ports board reviews ADQ’s offer.

24-26 August (Monday-Wednesday): Dubai International Humanitarian Aid and Development Conference and Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

24-26 August (Monday-Wednesday): International Emergency and Catastrophe Management Conference & Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

25-27 August (Tuesday-Thursday): DUPHAT 2026, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

25-27 August (Tuesday-Thursday): International Family Medicine Conference & Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai Derma, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

14-17 September (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

15 September (Tuesday): Deadline for minority shareholders to tender their shares to ADQ.

15-16 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

16 September (Wednesday): Expected AD Ports offer results, unless extended.

16-18 September (Wednesday-Friday): GISEC Global, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City Dubai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday): International Real Estate & Investment Show (IREIS), Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

29-30 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): AFCM Annual Conference, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

5-7 October (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

6-8 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Beautyworld Dubai, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

13-14 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): RISE Global Real Estate Investment Summit & Expo, Dubai.

13-15 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual Meeting of Global Future Leaders, Dubai.

14-15 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Sharjah Investment Forum, Jawaher Reception and Convention Center, Sharjah.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): WETEX, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

21-22 October (Wednesday-Thursday): World Green Economy Summit, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

26-27 October (Monday-Tuesday): Dubai AI Festival, Dubai.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

27-29 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Jewellery, Gem & Technology in Dubai, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City Dubai.

28-30 September (Monday-Wednesday): Middle East Coatings Show, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City Dubai.

30 October (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

2-6 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

3-5 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Gulf Host, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

3-5 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Gulfood Manufacturing, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 November (Monday-Thursday): EMEA Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education Conference, Dubai College of Tourism, Dubai.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

18-19 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Touchdown Middle East 2026, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

19-22 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Art Dubai, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City Dubai.

23-26 November (Monday-Thursday): Big 5 Global, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

23-26 November (Monday-Thursday): LiveableCitiesX, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

23-26 November (Monday-Thursday): Future FM, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

25-26 November (Saturday-Sunday): Doers Summit, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

4-6 December (Friday-Sunday): Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Abu Dhabi.

4-8 December (Friday-Tuesday): GITEX Global Summit, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Al Maryah Island, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Water & Power Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday) Middle East & North Africa Business Aviation Association Show, DWC, Dubai Airshow Site.

9-10 December (Wednesday-Thursday): UITP Conference, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

10-12 December (Thursday-Saturday): MEBAA Show Dubai, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

15-17 December (Tuesday-Thursday): International Appliance and Electronics Show, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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Today at a glance

THIS MORNING: Adnoc to trim Asia sales + Space42 looking to double revenues by 2030

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The two-month UAE-Iran détente didn't survive its first direct hit

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Related

Airfares are set to stay elevated through 2026, even under a best-case ceasefire scenario

Related

Related

DTC and Bolt add vehicles to platform, DP World taps Egypt’s Edecs for Tanzania’s busiest port, Parkin heads to Egypt, ADIB backs Glasgow logistics asset

Related

OpenAI’s 2Q revenue growth trails Anthropic as losses widen

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Today at a glance

THIS MORNING: Adnoc to trim Asia sales + Space42 looking to double revenues by 2030

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Related

This publication is proudly sponsored by

The two-month UAE-Iran détente didn't survive its first direct hit

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Related

Airfares are set to stay elevated through 2026, even under a best-case ceasefire scenario

Related

Related

DTC and Bolt add vehicles to platform, DP World taps Egypt’s Edecs for Tanzania’s busiest port, Parkin heads to Egypt, ADIB backs Glasgow logistics asset

Related

OpenAI’s 2Q revenue growth trails Anthropic as losses widen

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