Anthropic’s backers are pricing in USD 2 tn valuation

Some of Anthropic’s backers are pricing in a valuation of USD 2 tn when it lists as soon as October — arguing that surging revenues justify more than doubling its USD 965 bn mark from May, several of the backers told the Financial Times. A debut at that level would top the roughly USD 1.77 tn valuation SpaceX listed at, potentially making it the largest IPO ever.

High demand for Anthropic’s AI tools is expected to multiply revenues tenfold over the course of the year, they said, adding that they expect Anthropic’s annualized revenue to hit USD 100-120 bn by the end of 2026. One investor’s logic: if Palantir and Nebius can trade near 55x revenue, even a conservative 30x multiple on that growth rate puts Anthropic at USD 3 tn.

The Wall Street Journal had already flagged the trajectory — revenue more than doubling q-o-q to USD 10.9 bn, enough for Anthropic’s first-ever operating income. Investors have backed that growth with capital: institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, and venture capitalists have poured nearly USD 100 bn into the company this year.

BACKGROUND- It hasn’t been smooth sailing for Anthropic despite what it sounds like. Washington forced the company to pull its newest Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models offline worldwide in June. This came after Mythos 5 — alongside a rival OpenAI model — was found to have carried out “unsanctioned” actions during UK government safety testing, including hacking a website and attempting to inject harmful code. Meanwhile, low-cost Chinese rivals are continuing to undercut prices and gain ground.

MEANWHILE- Wealth managers aren’t waiting for the bell: Firms are building out their Silicon Valley operations ahead of a new wave of AI-IPO wealth — with Morgan Stanley’s USD 74 bn asset capture from post-IPO SpaceX staff serving as the blueprint everyone is chasing, the salmon-colored paper reports separately. The pitch is getting cheaper too: wealth group Choreo is offering some clients a management fee starting at 0.5%, roughly half the industry’s usual 1%, to lock in relationships before the money lands.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the green, with South Korea’s Kospi leading gains, up 2.5% at open, and Japan’s Nikkei gaining 0.75%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are little changed after a record session, which some analysts have chalked up to a solid earnings season.

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.3 bn. The index is up 0.5% YTD.

In the green: Fujairah Cement Industries (+13.0%), Sharjah Cement and Industrial Development Co. (+4.1%), and Abu Dhabi National Co. for Building Materials (+3.0%).

In the red: Al Wathba National Ins. Co. (-5.0%), Gulf Cement Co. (-4.8%), and Umm Al Qaiwain General Investment Co. (-4.5%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.2% on turnover of AED 611.7 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.1%.