THIS MORNING: It’s a later opening date and a higher bill for Wynn Al Marjan Island + UAE’s PMI climbs in July

Good morning, everyone. Abu Dhabi's property market is taking a breather, while it’s full steam ahead for some (but not all) UAE players.

Abu Dhabi's property market cooled in 2Q, with capital values rising just 2.1% q-o-q, the slowest pace in two years, as transactions cooled on the back of regional tensions weighing on off-plan sales and mortgage activity.

Over on the investment side, Mubadala led a funding round for Moove that valued it at USD 2.1 bn.

While the UAE’s non-oil private sector saw the sharpest improvement in business conditions in four months, it’s not good news for everyone as Wynn pushes back the opening of its Al Marjan Island resort to September 2027.

A bigger bill and a later date

Wynn has set September 2027 as the new opening date for its Wynn Al Marjan Island resort in Ras Al Khaimah, according to its second-quarter earnings release. The company also disclosed during an earnings call that construction costs have risen by USD 600 mn to roughly USD 5.7 bn, up from the USD 5.1 bn price tag it was building to.

REMEMBER- The project was originally targeting early 2027 before CEO Craig Billings told analysts in May that the launch would slip due to shipping disruptions and alternative sourcing brought on by the regional war — costs he said had already started to climb as a result.

The money in it so far: Wynn put another USD 48.1 mn into the 40%-owned joint venture building the resort in the second quarter alone, taking its life-to-date capital contribution to USD 1.1 bn.

Billings isn’t worried: “I’m not going to tell you there’s no risk, but when we underwrote the project, we didn’t underwrite a region with zero geopolitical risk,” he told reporters. “We underwrote a country with a demonstrated ability to manage through it.”

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Edging out of the woods?

The UAE’s non-oil private sector is back on the up in July. The S&P Global UAE PMI climbed to 52.7 in July from June’s five-year low of 50.8, marking the sharpest improvement in business conditions in four months and reestablishing the growth trend further above the 50-point neutral threshold, the ratings firm said in a note (pdf).

New orders, exports, and hiring returned to growth: New orders accelerated to their quickest rate since February on the back of infrastructure projects and an uptick in sentiment, despite persistent tight budgets, while export orders saw their first expansion since March. A pickup in domestic demand led to hiring expansion after June’s six-year low and prompted a slight output expansion, but with a growing backlog of work due to freight congestion.

Margin and inventory pressures persist: Despite higher purchasing activity, inventories shrank the fastest since December 2025, as supply schedules remained stretched due to delayed deliveries. Meanwhile, input cost inflation approached April’s peak — driven by higher prices for fuel, food, software, and shipping, alongside rising staff costs — which businesses struggled to fully pass on to customers due to intense market competition, S&P Global Principal Economist David Owen said.

Still, smoother shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a restoration of client confidence provide some assurance that firms are managing 2Q disruptions better, Owen added.

Over in Dubai, the headline PMI rose to 51.7, up from 50.7 in June, driven by a rise in new business and consumer demand, though business activity hit its weakest rate since June 2021.

Looking ahead: Business confidence is still low, with only 7% of surveyed firms expecting an uplift in output over the coming year.

Data point

27.3% — That’s the projected y-o-y drop in the UAE’s tourist arrivals in 2026, with the number of tourists expected to dip to 20.5 mn, before staging a 37.7% recovery in 2027, according to the latest note from Fitch Solutions’ research unit, BMI, on Middle East tourism. The research unit expects this number to rebound to 28.3 mn next year, eventually reaching 30.7 mn by 2030. Over the GCC as a whole, tourist arrivals are projected to fall 22.8% to 64.1 mn.

REMEMBER- The war was expected to wipe USD 13-32 bn in GCC tourism revenues, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary General Jasem Albudaiwi had previously told officials, with tourism arrivals potentially dipping by 8-19 mn on the back of the regional conflict, he added. Forecasts had also expected a 27% y-o-y decline in inbound arrivals to the region this year, after the UAE clocked 8.5k holiday rental cancellations on the day the conflict erupted.

Authorities have so far stepped in to try to mitigate the impact of the war on tourism, rolling out fee deferrals and tax rebates for upgrades in the hospitality sector. However, sectors like restaurants are already feeling the burden of lower tourism numbers and higher costs.

PSA

Dubai DutyFree is now accepting payments via Crypto.com, according to a press release. The rollout covers Dubai International Airport, Al Maktoum International Airport, and online purchases, with payments settled in AED, and is the first time a regional dutyfree retailer has included this option.

BACKGROUND- Crypto is increasingly being rolled out as a payment option, especially in the aviation sector, with Crypto.com having already partnered with Emirates on a similar agreement. The exchange has also partnered with authorities to allow UAE residents to settle government fees using stablecoin payments.

WEATHER- The mercury rises to 46°C today in Abu Dhabi and 44°C in Dubai, with lows ranging between 33-34°C for both, according to our favorite weather app.

The big story abroad

The latest from the regional war is dominating headlines this morning. Iran has reached an agreement with Oman on a proposal that would give the Islamic Republic control over ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. While the US has yet to confirm or comment on the news, the development is in line with US President Donald Trump’s recent remarks regarding an imminent agreement to reopen the strait.

IN CONTEXT- The US has repeatedly reiterated that it would not agree to any agreement giving Iran control over Hormuz.

This does not mean the war is over: Iran has reportedly threatened to attack Gulf energy infrastructure if the US launches fresh attacks on its territory.

And over on Wall Street: A wave of cyberattacks targeted major Wall Street financial services firms and ‌money managers, including Point72 Asset Management, Millennium Management, Two Sigma Investments, and Citadel. The voice phishing attacks mark the latest in a series of cybersecurity breaches targeting Wall Street, which have intensified thanks to AI tools.

AI leadership shakeup: Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis has stepped down from his post, one of several people in leadership positions who are leaving the company. The shakeup comes amid growing investor and industry concerns that Google is failing to keep pace with its rivals in the AI sphere.

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