THIS MORNING: AE’s LNG ambitions face a tough negotiating environment + UAE’s USD 1.4 tn US pledge steams ahead

Good morning, friends, and happy FRIDAY. It’s a mostly good news kind of day: Inflation may be turning a corner, banks just posted a clean quarter, and tokenization is gaining even further ground.

Emirates NBD thinks Dubai's inflation has peaked. June came in at 5.7% — still hot, still led by fuel and airfares — but the monthly pace is the slowest since February, and the bank is calling for things to cool from here.

On the banks: Some of the nation’s biggest banks closed the quarter in decent shape, with impairments easing as overlays rolled off slightly from the first quarter of the year.

And then there's Mubadala. It just tokenized a private markets fund, and got a vote of confidence from Coinbase, which is buying the token for its own corporate treasury.

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UAE LNG faces pressure from buyer’s market

The UAE's LNG ambitions are running into a tougher negotiating environment. Asian and European buyers are looking for lower prices and stronger supply guarantees from the LNG from UAE and Qatar as continued disruption through Hormuz adds a risk premium, industry sources told Reuters.

A buyer’s market: Higher ins. costs and recent shipping disruptions are shifting more bargaining power toward buyers as new long-term contracts come up for negotiation. While the UAE has built a reputation for offering more flexible contract terms, buyers now say future agreements will also need to account for higher geopolitical and ins. risks. Growing production from alternative markets like the US, Canada, and Mozambique is also expected to strengthen buyers' negotiating position in the years ahead, they said.

Some are already pushing on price: Some recent agreements have been signed closer to 12.3% of Brent crude prices, the sources said, suggesting buyers are already negotiating discounts to reflect the higher risk, with pre-war contracts typically priced at 12.6%-12.7%.

Buyers are also expected to ask Gulf exporters for commitments to provide replacement cargoes if shipments through Hormuz are disrupted.

UAE’s USD 1.4 tn US pledge is ahead of schedule

The UAE is moving faster than planned on its USD 1.4 tn US investment pledge, Foreign Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi told Bloomberg, pointing to closer ties with Washington as the Trump administration eases restrictions on exports of advanced AI chips to the Emirates.

The ten-year timeline could be getting shorter, he added. The framework agreement was announced last year, and covers UAE investments in the US’s AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing sectors.

What’s behind the speedup? Al Zeyoudi cited the US’ recent upgrading of the UAE’s export status as helping the Emirates on its way to the investment target. The move opened the door for the UAE government and approved companies, including G42 and Core42, to buy advanced US chips, satellites, and defense equipment.

The UAE will start taking imports of US chips “very soon,” he said, adding that delivery will go to UAE-US projects like the 5 GW US-UAE data center complex in Abu Dhabi, which is expected to host US firms like OpenAI.

There was less praise for Europe, with the minister flagging a slow rate of progress on a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (Cepa) with the bloc. On the state of discussions, he said: “We still look at the EU as a partner [...] but capital will not wait.”

Canada Cepa incoming? Al Zeyoudi said the UAE was expected to announce a trade agreement with Canda this week, after the Emirates agreed a USD 50 bn investment framework with Canada last year, and said talks with Egypt, Ghana, Mozambique, and Zambia were also moving along.

PSA

Etihad Rail is bringing two new stations to Abu Dhabi online ahead of schedule, with the railway operator set to open the Madinat Zayed and Liwa stations in Al Dhafra on 30 November, one month ahead of schedule, Trade Arabia reports.

BACKGROUND- The service, which kicked off at the end of June, is set to connect an initial 11 cities, with a further seven set to be rolled out in phases. The first service linked Abu Dhabi to Fujairah, with additional stations due to open in Dubai, Al Dhafra, Sharjah’s Al Dhaid this year. The operator also recently announced plans to extend the passenger network to Ajman.

WEATHER- The mercury rises to 43°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to 30°C overnight, while Dubai is in for a 41°C high and a low of 31°C.

The big story abroad

The US is in all of the business (and war) headlines this morning. It is slapping new 10-12.5% “forced labor” duties on 60 trading partners, including the EU, just as Trump's temporary 10% global tariff expires. And a day after signing the US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement, Trump says it's “totally subject” to Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords — a normalization step the kingdom has long tied to Palestinian statehood

Meanwhile, Trump says he's weighing a “massive attack” on Iran and will hold Tehran responsible for any further Houthi strikes on Red Sea shipping.

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