UAE equities (mostly) recover in 2Q 2026, but it’s all about what happens next

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: ENBD eyes HSBC’s Turkey operations + Adnoc consults on a possible pricing reshuffle

Good morning, friends. It’s been a quarter of catching our breath, and the markets are finally showing it. UAE equities closed 2Q having erased most of their losses from earlier during the conflict — Dubai’s benchmark up 7.4% in 2Q, and ADX up 2% — and the rally has a name: relief. Investors are pricing out the war premium, and the UAE’s underlying fundamentals are getting their due again. Our lead story takes a look at what drove the recovery and what de-escalation could mean for 3Q.

PLUS- The UAE also rode the slight easing in the Strait of Hormuz — plus its newfound freedom from Opec quotas — to deliver a record 3.7 mn bbl / d of oil exports in June. And now, it’s tinkering with the plumbing too: Adnoc is consulting refiners on repricing Upper Zakum, Das, and Umm Lulu against the Dubai benchmark instead of Murban futures — a quiet move that would make its secondary grades easier for Asian buyers to compare against the competition, and it is one more piece of the UAE’s post-Opec push to trade more crude on its own terms.

Money’s also moving in interesting directions. Adia is cornerstoning what could be Hong Kong’s biggest IPO of the year — up to USD 1.5 bn into Luxshare, Apple’s manufacturing partner — while closer to home, Emirates NBD is barely pausing for breath after taking control of RBL Bank in India before turning to early-stage talks on HSBC’s Turkey unit.

Oil exports are picking back up

Emirati oil exports hit a record high in June, with Kpler and Vortexa shiptracking data showing the UAE averaged 3.7 mn bbl / d last month, Reuters reports. The figure sits comfortably above the 3.1-3.3 mn bbl / d average recorded before the regional war broke out and above a previous 3.4 mn bbl / d peak from April 2020. More movement through the Strait of Hormuz is driving the export ramp up, with the UAE also looking to clear its inventory to keep production high — its exit from Opec means it’s no longer subject to production quotas.

ICYMI- The UAE had been steadily ramping up exports throughout last month, even ahead of the US-Iran interim agreement, with total exports at 85% of their pre-war capacity in early June.

It’s also casting the net out wider after Adnoc shipped 2 mn barrels of crude to Nigeria for the first time, Reuters reports elsewhere. The UAE is seeing more interest from Africa, the US, and Europe, and the Mediterranean region, in addition to the usual demand from Asia, sources familiar with the matter told the newswire.

And the way they’re priced could change…

Adnoc is consulting refiners and traders on plans to change how it prices three of its key crude grades sold under long-term contracts, Bloomberg reports, citing people in the know. Under the proposal, the official selling prices for Upper Zakum, Das, and Umm Lulu would be priced as a differential to the Dubai benchmark for cargoes loading two months ahead, replacing the current methodology that prices them against flagship Murban futures. Adnoc has reportedly held discussions with customers in Singapore and Japan, though no implementation timeline has been set.

Moving to a Dubai-linked pricing formula would bring Adnoc’s secondary crude grades more in line with regional market conventions, making them easier for Asian refiners to compare with competing grades — like Oman or Arab Light — that are priced against Dubai-linked benchmarks.

Our take: The shift could also support the UAE’s strategy to expand spot trading and market larger crude volumes following its exit from Opec in May by aligning its pricing with the benchmark most widely used in the region.

Emirates NBD eyes HSBC’s Turkey operations

Emirates NBD doesn’t appear to be done shopping: Weeks after closing the largest foreign acquisition of an Indian bank in the country's history, the Dubai lender is now in early-stage talks to buy HSBC’s Turkey operations, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter who weren’t authorized to speak publicly. The move would consolidate its share in a market where it’s already the dominant regional player.

BACKGROUND- Emirates NBD already owns Denizbank, Turkey’s ninth-largest lender by branch count, with more than 500 branches. HSBC, by contrast, has spent a decade shrinking its Turkish footprint — branches there have fallen from 315 in 2013 to around 36 as of March, and it now holds just 0.3% of total loans, ranking 15th by assets, per data from the Banks Association of Turkey cited by the business information service.

Whether or not the Turkey talks go anywhere, there’s a clear pattern: Emirates NBD is using its balance sheet to buy outright control in markets where it already has a toehold, rather than building organically. It did exactly that in India with RBL Bank, and it did it in Turkey before, in 2019, with Denizbank.

What’s next? The Turkey talks are early and may not produce an agreement — both HSBC and Emirates NBD declined to comment beyond a standard line about not commenting on speculation. HSBC has tried and failed to exit Turkey before; ING walked away from a similar plan in 2015 over regulatory friction. Worth watching whether Emirates NBD’s appetite holds if Ankara’s banking regulator signals the kind of resistance that’s killed Turkey bank agreements before.

Another bank taps debt markets

Rakbank is the latest bank to head to debt markets amid a UAE debt rush, lining up 11 banks — including our friends at Mashreq, along with Citi, JPMorgan, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, and others — to arrange investor meetings ahead of a five-year USD benchmark bond under its EMTN program, Zawya reports. The lender will pull the trigger subject to market conditions, according to the news outlet.

Rakbank’s not alone: Our friends at Mashreq also kicked off investor calls this week for a perpetual non-call 5.5-year AT1 note — the bank’s first public issuance since the war started. They both follow issuances from FAB and Dubai Islamic Bank as spreads tighten back to pre-war levels, experts previously told us.

UAE-Ukraine trade pact comes into force

The UAE and Ukraine have put their trade pact into action, with their comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) taking effect today, state news agency Wam reports. The accord removes customs duties on almost all bilateral trade, eliminating 99% of tariffs on Emirati imports and 97% on Ukrainian imports. Officials expect the pact to add USD 369 mn to the UAE’s GDP and USD 874 mn to Ukraine’s economy by 2031.

DATA POINT- Non-oil trade between the two countries stood at USD 346.8 mn in 2025, well below the USD 904.4 mn recorded in 2021 before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Possibly a boon for UAE-Ukraine defense ties? The CEPA’s tariff relief lands as UAE-Ukraine defense ties are deepening. Gulf states have been exploring Ukrainian-designed interceptor drones priced at just USD 2.5k apiece — versus the USD 3-12 mn per shot it costs the GCC’s existing missile defense systems to take down a USD 20-100k Iranian drone. As we reported in April, CEO of Japan’s Terra Drone Toru Tokushige told Reuters that the firm (which has partnered with Ukraine’s Amazing Drones on the project) is eyeing potential production in the Gulf. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also told UAE officials Ukraine is open to offering its defense systems to regional partners.

The agreement is the latest addition to the UAE's expanding CEPA program. The country has now concluded 37 trade agreements worldwide, with 17 already in force.

Dubai bans select scrap exports

Dubai Customs imposed a temporary four-month ban on exports of select iron, copper, and aluminum industrial scrap, according to a notice (pdf). It lands as the region's metals supply chains are under strain, with strikes on Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter in the UAE and Bahrain’s Alba knocking out primary aluminum capacity since the Iran conflict began in late February, pushing LME prices to a four-year high as Hormuz shipping disruptions choke off alumina imports. With smelter restarts running into 2027 on some estimates, scrap has become a more important short-term substitute for primary metal — which is exactly the supply Dubai's ban now keeps onshore.

The ban took effect on 10 June, runs through 8 October, and may auto-renew. Traders with contracts predating the ban can apply to the Foreign Trade Ministry for an exception. Violations carry penalties — companies trading in these materials should check current and planned shipments against the notice before moving product.

OSN wants all of Anghami

OSN Streaming made a preliminary non-binding proposal to fully acquire Abu Dhabi-based streaming platform Anghami, taking it private at USD 3.39 per share, according to a filing. OSN expects to use shareholder equity or affiliate financing to fund the transaction, which stands to raise its stake in the music platform up from 67%.

What’s next? Anghami’s board has formed a committee of three newly appointed directors to evaluate and negotiate the bid.

REFRESHER- The merger of OSN+ and Anghami was first announced in 2023, with OSN Group injecting USD 50 mn of liquidity into Anghami to become a major shareholder.

WB merger in (more) hot water

The UK government may halt Paramount Skydance’s Gulf-backed USD 110 bn takeover of Warner Bros Discovery over media ownership concerns, Bloomberg reports, citing a letter (pdf) from the Department for Culture, Media, and Sport. Although no final decision on intervention has been reached, Secretary of State for Culture Lisa Nandy may prompt regulators to investigate the transaction, adding another hurdle to the merger. Nandy has given Paramount and Warner Bros. until 6 July to respond.

REMEMBER- The deal puts CBS-owner Paramount in control of the larger Warner family, home to HBO and CNN. Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and the Qatar Investment Authority are partially bankrolling the transaction with some USD 24 bn in equity.

What’s next? Weeks after the US Justice Department closed its eight-month antitrust probe into the merger, the European Commission must conclude two parallel reviews. This includes a Phase 1 merger check due 7 July and a Foreign Subsidies probe targeting the Gulf money due 14 July.

A better-than-expected 2025

The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) says GDP grew 6.2% last year in its latest Quarterly Economic Review (pdf), up from its March forecast of 5.6%. Growth was driven by a 6.8% surge in non-hydrocarbon sectors — led by construction, finance, and trade — while the hydrocarbon sector grew by 4.3%.

As for this year and beyond… The CBUAE expects GDP growth to come in at 1.7% for 2026, a marked decrease from its previous forecast of 5.6% — “external developments” have aroused uncertainty over this year’s outlook, the bank said. For 2027, the economy is projected to grow 9.8%, based on an assumed normalization and increase in hydrocarbon production and sustained non-hydrocarbon growth.

The report comes shortly following S&P estimates that real GDP will contract by 2.7% in 2026, after 6.2% growth in 2025.

Inflation figures are in: The CBUAE forecasts inflation to come in at 2.3% this year, driven by the impact of geopolitical pressures on energy, shipping, and food. The figure is projected to drop to 1.9% next year as easing supply chains, lower energy costs, and government caps balance domestic demand.

Data point

AED 84.5 bn — that’s how much buyers have spent on homes in Abu Dhabi in the first half of this year, putting the capital on track for its strongest year on record. Residential sales rose 173.9% y-o-y, while the number of apartment and villa sales climbed 103% to 16.6k, Arabian Business reports, citing ADXinteract data.

Off-plan sales continued to dominate the market, accounting for 78% of all transactions, with activity concentrated across Al Reem Island, Al Hudayriyat, Yas Island, and Al Saadiyat Island, which together generated nearly two-thirds of total sales value. Median apartment prices reached AED 1.9k per sq ft, up 22.5% y-o-y, while villa prices climbed 41% to AED 1.5k per sq ft. Across the emirate’s 286 residential projects currently under development, average absorption stands at 51%.

Our take: The figures suggest investor appetite is still there despite knock-on effects from the regional war. In 1Q 2026, the emirate’s residential units saw AED 54.1 bn in transactions and AED 44 bn in sales, up 223.5% y-o-y, with sellers holding their ground and demand from end users and long-term investors continuing to support activity. At the time, analysts had expected a quieter April and May, as investors take a more cautious approach and increased construction costs potentially weigh on project delivery.

PSAs

Some relief for our wallets in July: The UAE Fuel Price Committee cut fuel prices across the board for July, reversing part of the sharp increases seen over the past few months as global oil markets eased, according to a post on X.

Here’s the breakdown per liter:

Super 98 is now AED 3.40, down from AED 3.95 in June (-13.9%);
Special 95 is AED 3.29, down from AED 3.83 (-14.1%);
E-Plus 91 is AED 3.21, down from AED 3.76 (-14.6%);
Diesel is AED 3.60, down from AED 4.33 (-16.9%).

IN CONTEXT- The reduction unwinds part of the steep fuel price hikes introduced in March, (April}, and June, after regional tensions and elevated crude prices pushed costs sharply higher. Diesel, which peaked at AED 4.69 per liter in May before easing to AED 4.33 in June, has now fallen by a further 16.9%. While prices remain well above February’s AED 2.72 per liter, the latest cut should offer some relief for transport, logistics, construction, and delivery firms (and regular commuters).

WEATHER- The mercury hits 41°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to 32°C, while Dubai will see a high of 40°C and a low of 31°C, according to our favorite weather app.

The big story abroad

How yesterday’s talks between the US and Iran unfolded: US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff held “positive” talks with regional leaders in Qatar, indicating that technical talks are proceeding. This followed reports that Tehran’s representatives would refuse to meet the envoys, with Iranian officials saying the terms of the ceasefire must be sorted out before tackling the issue of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

International dailies are zeroing in on US President Donald Trump’s annual financial disclosure, which reveals at least USD 1.4 bn in earnings from crypto and crypto-related ventures. The report highlighted almost USD 600 mn made from sales by World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm co-founded by Trump, his sons, and Witkoff.

Wall Street just finished its best quarter since 2020, as optimism over a long-lasting peace agreement for the US-Iran conflict bolsters investor confidence. The S&P 500 closed up by 0.8% at around 7.5k, while the Dow Jones rose 0.3% at 52k.

Chip stocks also had a good quarter — they closed out their best quarter ever, jumping 88% during the three-month period. We have more in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.

Meanwhile, in the AI world: Anthropic launched Claude Science, an AI research workbench which integrates tools and computer resources geared towards scientists and researchers. It can render artifacts like 3D protein structures, genome tracks, and chemical structures.

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Market watch

Morgan Stanley cut its oil price forecasts for the second time in about two weeks, citing faster-than-expected Hormuz traffic recovery, resilient US supply, and soft Chinese demand, Bloomberg reports. The bank now sees dated Brent averaging USD 75 / bbl both in 3Q (down USD 15) and 4Q (down USD 5), with all four 2027 quarters also revised lower and dated Brent seen at USD 70 by end-2027.

Why it matters: Brent futures fell about 30% this quarter after the US-Iran peace agreement opened the door for more tanker traffic through Hormuz. Morgan Stanley estimates flows only need to recover to about 65% of pre-conflict levels to balance the market in 2027, suggesting prices still have room to fall. Goldman Sachs also cut its outlook, and bearish signals like contango pricing — where future prices trade above spot — point to a market already pricing in a glut.

The bearish turn is broadening: The downgrade comes as analysts cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, according to a Reuters poll. The survey lowered its average Brent forecast to USD 84.5 / bbl from USD 90.4 a month earlier. The shift reflects growing expectations that the market is heading back into surplus, with analysts expecting Opec to continue gradually raising production.

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UAE stocks are recovering, but the rally is still trading on peace

UAE equities are clawing back their war losses as easing geopolitical tensions pull investors into some of the region’s most heavily sold stocks. Dubai’s benchmark gained around 7.4% in 2Q 2026, putting it on course for its best quarter in a year and largely erasing its 2026 losses. Abu Dhabi also recovered, though by much less.

What’s driving the rally: “This rebound can mainly be attributed to a reversal of geopolitical risks in the region, as the region’s fundamentals have remained strong despite the tensions,” Century Financial CIO Vijay Valecha tells EnterpriseAM UAE. The easing of concerns around the Strait of Hormuz helped investors move back into riskier assets, CFI financial market analyst Christy Achkar adds.

Volatility remained elevated in 2Q, Achkar says, but markets became more resilient as fears of a broader regional conflict eased. “Overall, 2Q marked a shift from risk avoidance toward gradually improving investor confidence,” she adds.

But this is not purely a peace trade. Resilient earnings from major banks and real estate companies, continued foreign participation, and confidence in the UAE’s longer-term outlook have helped the rebound hold, Achkar says. “While geopolitical developments triggered the rebound, the market has been able to sustain it because the underlying fundamentals remain strong.”

The recovery, by the numbers: The DFM General Index (DFMGI) gained around 10% over the past three months and nearly 13% from its March 16 low, while the FTSE ADX General Index (FADGI) rose around 2% over the quarter and 4% from its March low. Both also extended their gains over the past month, with the DFMGI up around 3% and the FADGI up 1.6%.

But we’re not back to normal: The DFM remains around 12% below its pre-war high, while the ADX is still about 9% lower. The recovery has repaired much of the damage but has not yet fully reversed the discount investors attached to regional security risk.

The backdrop

The economy bent, but didn’t break: The UAE’s PMI fell from 55 in February to 52.9 in March and 52.1 in April before edging back up to 52.6 in May. It remained above the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction throughout the disruption, meaning growth slowed but never reversed.

IN CONTEXT- Before the war, business activity was growing at its fastest pace since April 2024, with construction, real estate, logistics, and technology supporting stronger output. The economy’s underlying engines were interrupted rather than dismantled — making it easier for equities to bounce once the security premium began fading.

The state cushion matters: Valecha points to the CBUAE’s AED 1 tn asset base, which has supported measures including a five-pillar resilience package launched at the start of the war to give banks greater access to reserves and additional AED and USD liquidity, followed later by a AED 31 bn liquidity injection. He also cites the government’s liquid assets — estimated at around 200% of GDP — as a buffer against short-term fiscal and economic volatility.

That resilience is also reflected in the medium-term outlook and sovereign ratings: The IMF has recently lifted its 2027 UAE growth forecast to 5.3% from 4.7%, Valecha notes, while S&P Global expects growth to average 6% in 2027-2029 as oil production and tourism recover. Moody’s has also affirmed the UAE at Aa2 with a stable outlook, while Fitch has maintained Abu Dhabi at AA — suggesting the shock has weakened near-term growth without undermining the country’s credit strength or recovery prospects.

Dubai fell harder — so it’s bouncing faster

Why Dubai was hit more: Dubai’s market leans heavily on tourism, aviation, real estate, and global capital flows — sectors particularly sensitive to flight disruption and any threat to the city’s safe-haven status. Dubai slipped into bear-market territory in March as the conflict rattled an equity market that had previously logged five straight annual gains.

Why Abu Dhabi held up better: The ADX benefited from “backing from sovereign wealth funds and diverted oil revenues,” as well as a more defensive mix of listed companies, Valecha says. It therefore had less ground to make up once the war premium began easing, explaining the smaller rebound from its March low.

The rally has been broad: Thirty-four of the 41 stocks in Dubai’s benchmark rose during 2Q, Bloomberg reports. That breadth suggests investors were not simply rotating into one or two defensive names but buying across much of the market as sentiment improved.

The most beaten-up stocks came back first

Consumer, energy, and aviation all led Dubai’s rally: Consumer discretionary stocks gained nearly 49% from the March 16 low, with Talabat rising around 60% during the quarter, Valecha tells us. Industrials advanced around 19%, supported by Salik, Air Arabia, and Parkin, while communication services gained roughly 15%.

Abu Dhabi’s leaders: Real estate returned more than 16% from the March low, followed by industrials at around 15% and energy at nearly 13%, Valecha says.

Energy could be next: The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced fears of supply disruption, restored confidence in regional export flows, and helped normalize shipping and operating conditions, Achkar says. That should improve the sector’s outlook if the waterway remains open and export bottlenecks continue to ease.

Real estate has been more uneven: The DFM Real Estate Index rose only around 5% from the March low, although Emaar Properties rebounded roughly 20%. The stock remains around 30% below its previous high and offers a dividend yield of about 8.2%, which Valecha describes as “incredible value” for one of Dubai’s flagship listed companies.

Fast money is already wagering on peace

The first movers: “When a credible ceasefire takes hold, investors start to undo their caution, but gradually rather than all at once,” Valecha says. Hedge funds and trend followers tend to move first, unwinding hedges and buying beaten-down assets before a formal agreement is signed.

“Fast money moves first,” he adds. “The war premium starts coming out of the most beaten-up assets before anything is even signed.” Brent’s retreat toward its pre-war range is one early example of that repositioning, Valecha says.

Slower money waits: Pension funds, insurers, and more cautious retail investors typically want confirmation before rotating out of USD, US Treasuries, and gold and back into regional equities, emerging-market debt, and cyclical stocks. That second wave would be crucial to turning the relief rally into a more durable recovery.

But the rally can reverse just as quickly

This is still a binary trade: Dubai’s market rebounded as peace talks progressed but “could as well reverse pretty quickly” if the interim accord falls apart, Fiera Capital fund manager Dominic Bokor-Ingram told Bloomberg. His longer-term view on Dubai remains positive, but the immediate trade still depends heavily on the war actually ending.

What renewed conflict would do: “Volatility [would spike] sharply rather than gradually,” Valecha says. It would force rule-bound risk-parity and volatility-targeting funds to cut exposure, while “safe-haven demand, fears over energy supply, and commodity-driven inflation” would put pressure on growth assets.

Retail is the wildcard: “Some panic and sell at the worst point, while others pile into the dip without fully pricing in the risk,” Valecha says. Because retail flows tend to be driven more by headlines and emotion than investment mandates, they can amplify moves in either direction.

What to watch in 3Q

Valecha sees potential in “fundamentally strong, high-dividend names” across banking, ins., tourism, and real estate. But the risks haven’t gone away. Valecha flags near-term operational bottlenecks in oil exports and security disruptions as the things to watch — specifically, whether Hormuz shipping traffic normalizes through 3Q without incident and whether the interim ceasefire holds through the next round of talks. A reversal on either front would risk an uneven sectoral recovery and weigh on the UAE’s credit profile.

Adia backs mega IPO of Hong Kong manufacturer

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) is backing what could become Hong Kong’s biggest IPO of the year, joining a group of cornerstone investors set to buy up to USD 1.5 bn of Luxshare Precision Industry’s total offering, as the Chinese manufacturer seeks to raise up to HKD 24.3 bn (USD 3.1 bn), according to Luxshare’s prospectus (pdf).

The Apple supplier has begun taking investor orders for 383.5 mn shares at up to HKD 63.28 (USD 8.07) each with final price offers set for 7 July ahead of trading on 9 July. The proceeds will fund capacity expansion across its automotive and consumer electronics businesses, alongside R&D, acquisitions, debt repayment, and working capital.

Adia’s role: The authority joins Temasek, GIC, Hillhouse Investment, Tencent, and Millennium Management among the cornerstone investors. It committed USD 45 mn to the offering, acquiring 5.57 mn H shares, equivalent to roughly 0.07% of Luxshare’s total issued share capital.

About Luxshare: One of Apple’s key AirPods assemblers, Luxshare has seen its bottom line grow 24.6% to RMB 18.2 bn in 2025. Its assets stood at RMB 306.5 bn (c. USD 45.1 bn) as of the end of last year.

ICYMI- Adia took part in Rajasthan-based KRN Heat Exchanger’s IPO earlier this month and reaped the rewards of earlier exposure to listings, cashing in on German gas engine maker Innio’s US IPO that raised USD 2.4 bn at the start of the month.

Ta'ziz studies a UAE-first MDI plant as it pushes beyond bulk chemicals

Ta’ziz moves further up the chemicals value chain: Adnoc’s and ADQ’s industrial chemicals venture is studying a methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) plant in Ruwais with Adnoc's XRG and Covestro, marking its first move beyond bulk products since launch, state news agency Wam reports.

The math: up to 600k tonnes per annum, feeding polyurethane foams and insulation for construction and auto makers — markets Ta’ziz hasn't touched before. A final investment decision is still pending technical and commercial review.

BACKGROUND- The MDI study follows Ta’ziz’s agreement with Alpha Dubai Holding to scope 14 more chemicals for the UAE — a basket that could add 2.2 mtpa in capacity and pull in up to USD 10 bn in investment if approved. Stack it with Al Ruwais, and Ta’ziz’s total output is on track to hit 4.7 mtpa by 2028.

1001 banks USD 30 mn to bring predictive AI to GCC ports, energy, and aviation

GCC- and London-based sovereign AI startup 1001 raised USD 30 mn in a Series A round led by US venture capital firm Lux Capital, according to a press release. PIF-backed Sanabil Investments joined the round, alongside Hanabi, 9Yards, General Catalyst, Chris Ré, and a group of regional and global investors. The company’s existing backers include Emirati entrepreneur Amira Sajwani (LinkedIn).

What 1001 does: Founded in 2025 by Bilal Abu-Ghazaleh (LinkedIn), 1001 builds AI systems for operators in energy, industrials, aviation, ports, and logistics. The platform gives operators real-time visibility into complex infrastructure, predicting disruptions and automating decisions before problems compound. Aviation, ports and logistics, and manufacturing are the company’s current focus areas, with energy and industrials close behind, Abu-Ghazaleh tells EnterpriseAM — sectors where, as he puts it, “one better decision is worth a fortune.”

Why GCC + London: “The GCC is where we’re starting to serve, because this is where the world’s most critical infrastructure runs,” Abu-Ghazaleh said. London, in turn, gives the company “access to one of the deepest talent pools in the world” in a timezone next door to the Gulf.

The investor bench is full of heavyweights: Backers include Replit’s Amjad Masad, Ramp’s Karim Atiyeh, Clay’s Kareem Amin, and Cognition’s Russell Kaplan — founders of some of the fastest-growing US startups in go-to-market, data infrastructure, and frontier AI engineering. Abu-Ghazaleh frames it as a deliberate corridor play: “US builder velocity paired with GCC operating scale.” “They give us the playbooks and the technical judgment for shipping fast and scaling deliberately, plus access to frontier talent networks as we keep pulling world-class builders toward the region,” he explains.

What’s next?

The fresh capital — on top of a USD 9 mn seed round closed in October 2025 — will grow the engineering team and fund commercial expansion across the GCC. Abu-Ghazaleh isn’t naming specific markets or a fixed order yet — the operating principle, he said, is to “follow the value and go deeper before we go wider.”

The startup is banking on its growth not tracking government infrastructure spending cycles — a meaningful claim in a region where sovereign capex swings can make or break a vendor’s pipeline. Abu-Ghazaleh argues the platform’s value is “largely insulated from new infrastructure spend” because it squeezes more performance out of assets operators have already built, with ROI typically visible within the same year.

He says demand actually firms up when budgets tighten, because operators prioritize resilience and control over new spending. “Demand didn’t soften through a turbulent period,” he said. “This region treats AI as national strategy, not a discretionary line item, so the commitment is patient and doesn’t flicker with the cycle.”

Crypto.com taps Iskandar Vanblarcum as MD for its exchange

Crypto.com tapped Iskandar Vanblarcum (LinkedIn) as managing director of the Crypto.com Exchange, the firm said in a statement. Vanblarcum will be charged with expanding the exchange’s client base, introducing new services for partners, and spearheading upcoming plans for real-world asset and event-based derivatives offerings.

The new hire: Vanblarcum brings over 20 years of investment banking and finance infrastructure experience, including tenures at Barclays and London Stock Exchange Group. Furthermore, he previously coordinated with Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (Vara), and most recently, he was vice president of business development at OKX.

Arab Bank Switzerland opens up in Dubai + Dubai Residential REIT buys AED 894 mn cluster

Arab Bank Switzerland established a Dubai presence by launching ABS Middle East and opening a branch in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC), according to a press release. The Geneva-based private banking group, which has nearly USD 25 bn in assets under management, is targeting entrepreneurs, family offices, and high-net-worth clients through its DIFC entity.

The leadership team: Upon launch, Samir Atitallah (LinkedIn) joined ABS Middle East as CEO, while former First Abu Dhabi Bank executive Michel Sarfati (LinkedIn) was named Head of Family Offices.

Dubai Residential REIT is expanding its portfolio again, acquiring 220 townhouses in Jebel Ali Village for AED 894 mn as it continues to build out the growth pipeline laid out during its listing last year, according to a press release (pdf). The transaction covers a cluster of three- and four-bedroom townhouses acquired through a forward purchase agreement.

A closer look: The purchase lifts the REIT's acquisitions this year to 276 homes. Together with the 56 Garden View Villas acquired earlier this year, the new homes are expected to generate around AED 75 mn in additional annual revenue once fully stabilized. With the latest addition, the REIT now operates more than 35.9k homes across 22 communities in Dubai.

Chip stocks see their best quarter ever — but volatility raises questions over what comes next

Chip stocks are closing out their best quarter ever, but not without some volatility on the way out. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 88% in 2Q, its strongest three months on record. That puts the index up 101.1% for the year — a pace that would make 2026 its best since the dot-com year of 1999, dwarfing the Nasdaq 100's 25% quarterly gain and the S&P 500's 14%, Bloomberg reports.

Memory chips, not Nvidia, drove the rally. SanDisk is up 764% this year. Micron has gained 301%, pushing its market cap past USD 1 tn. Nvidia — still the world’s most valuable company — is up just 4.5%, the weakest stock in the index despite trading at 18 times forward earnings, its cheapest multiple since 2018.

But the cracks are starting to show: The index shed 7.9% last week — its worst weekly drop since April 2025 — before swinging from down 3.2% to up 3.8% in a single session on Monday. Volatility, measured by the Cboe Semiconductor ETF Volatility Index, has jumped 83% this year, which would be its biggest annual rise on record, and is sitting near levels last seen during last year’s tariff shock.

Again, it all boils down to speculation that the AI boom — and investments from hyperscalers — is not sustainable. The main doubt that analysts and investors have is whether hyperscalers keep growing their investment beyond this year. So far, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are holding the line — it’s hardware makers further down the chain, squeezed by rising prices, and a reportedly wavering OpenAI IPO that are giving the bears evidence of the contrary.

What’s next: Analysts have raised 2027 earnings growth forecasts for the sector to 49%, up from 35% in April — well ahead of the S&P 500’s projected 17%. But with new AI capability papers landing weekly and a retail-heavy investor base still finding its footing in the sector, analysts expect the hyper-volatile market to persist for a while.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are mixed in early trading this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei and the Shanghai Composite in the green while South Korea’s Kospi and the Hang Seng are down. Investors are closely monitoring the latest developments in the talks between the US and Iran and where the JPY will settle against the USD after it slipped to its weakest level in decades.

ADX	9,804	-0.4% (YTD: -1.9%)
DFM	5,956	-0.6% (YTD: -1.5%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,682	-0.9% (YTD: -4.2%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.6% o/n	4.1% 1 yr
TASI	10,800	+0.1% (YTD: +3.0%)
EGX30	50,488	+1.3% (YTD: +20.7%)
S&P 500	7,499	+0.8% (YTD: +9.6%)
FTSE 100	10,497	+0.1% (YTD: +5.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,328	+1.6% (YTD: +9.2%)
Brent crude	USD 72.95	-1.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.25	-0.7%
Gold	USD 4,020	-0.4%
BTC	USD 58,604	-2.7% (YTD: -33.1%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.74	0.0% (YTD: -0.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	152.64	0.0% (YTD: +0.5%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.45	-6.8% (YTD: +10.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.4% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.0 bn. The index is down 1.9% YTD.

In the green: Orsacom Construction (+3.8%), Sudatel Telecommunications Group Company (+3.5%), and Investcorp Capital (+3.0%).

In the red: Hayah Ins. Company (-4.5%), ADNH Catering (-3.0%), and Abu Dhabi National Co. for Building Materials (-2.4%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.6% on turnover of AED 831.8 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.9%.

CALENDAR

JULY

28-29 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

14-17 September (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

15-16 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

29-30 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): AFCM Annual Conference, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

5-7 October (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

30 October (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

2-6 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 November (Monday-Thursday): EMEA Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education Conference, Dubai College of Tourism, Dubai.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

16-18 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Police Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

4-6 December (Friday-Sunday): Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Water & Power Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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