Good morning, everyone. The war has shown no signs of letting up over the weekend, with the UAE seeing a number of Iranian strikes, and the Foreign Ministry issuing a statement saying the country was “in a state of defense in response to the brutal and unprovoked Iranian aggression.”

Multiple safety alerts were sent to our phones over the weekend, and a strike hit a tower in Dubai Marina, while a separate interception resulted in debris falling onto a vehicle and the death of a Pakistani man. Reports and videos of smoke near Dubai International Airport were also posted on X shortly before Emirates temporarily suspended flights on Saturday, though the Dubai Media Office denied any incidents at DXB.

It wasn’t just Dubai: The Fujairah Oil Industry Zone saw another fire caused by falling debris after air defenses intercepted an Iranian drone and the emirate saw another fire early this morning from falling shrapnel. As of yesterday, Iran had launched 1.4k drones against the UAE — 1.3k of which were intercepted while 80 landed — as well as eight cruise missiles that were all intercepted.

In the rest of the Gulf, Iran continued to widen the scope of its attacks, striking vital infrastructure across the region from water desalination plants to airports and oil storage:

  • Saudi Arabia reported its first fatalities, along with 12 injuries, after a military projectile hit a residential area in Al Kharj, south of Riyadh;
  • A desalination plant was hit in Bahrain, causing damage, though no disruptions were reported;
  • Fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport were also targeted in a drone attack.

In today’s issue: Our Big Story Today brings a mixed outlook from S&P Global, which still believes the UAE’s economy can withstand current geopolitical tensions and disruptions — though not without a hit to GDP growth.

Less positive news is coming from a BMI note on the region’s banking sector, which claims the UAE is among the most exposed due to its reliance on expats.

Plus: We look at the other elephant in the room: real estate, with Fitch looking into how developers might respond to the potential cooling in buyer sentiment. Let’s dive in.

Getting easier to Get Out of Dodge?

Most UAE carriers are resuming flights after airport disruptions caused by an Iranian drone attack near the main terminals of Dubai International Airport (DXB) on Saturday.

  • Emirates is returning to full flight capacity from DXB in the coming days, according to a post on X ;
  • Etihad Airways has also restarted a limited flight schedule operating from Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International Airport between 6-19 March, according to a post on X ;
  • Flydubai resumed flights on Saturday;
  • Air Arabia also resumed operating flights between Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah, and several international destinations over the weekend.

Other airlines have also resumed flights to and from the UAE, including Egypt's flag carrier EgyptAir, according to a statement seen by EnterpriseAM.

Not everyone is leaving

We’re not yet seeing a massive, panicked exodus of capital or talent from Dubai or elsewhere, several analysts tell us, confirming what we reported last week on a large number of businesses and individuals maintaining a “wait-and-see” approach. Most investors are taking a watchful stance on Middle East funding, with risks of liquidity outflows becoming more acute the longer Iranian strikes continue, Director of Country Default and Banking Risk at S&P Global Alyssa Grzelak told EnterpriseAM.

So far, the corporate response has been hesitant. “It will depend on the duration of the conflict. For now, we don’t see companies moving their activities, but opting for optional work-from-home policies,” Jaap Meijer, head of research at Arqaam Capital, also told us.

One likely scenario: An acceleration of the dual-hub reality between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Instead of one-way capital migration, “the practical outcome is a multi-hub model: meaningful presence in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, aligned to where demand, regulation, and talent best fit their strategy,” Meijer notes.

PSA

Some UAE lenders are temporarily scrapping a range of banking fees to ensure customers can access funds and move money more easily amid regional disruptions. Dubai’s Emirates NBD has waived several retail banking charges through 31 March, including GCC-wide ATM withdrawal fees and domestic/overseas debit card replacement and delivery fees, Gulf News reports.

Other banks are rolling out similar measures: First Abu Dhabi Bank announced a suite of temporary relief measures active through 31 March, according to a post on X. The bank will waive fees for international remittances made via its mobile app and for all domestic ATM withdrawals. It will also refund branch-based remittance charges and exempt customers from loan installment deferral fees.

WEATHER- There’s a chance of rain this morning in Dubai, while Abu Dhabi will have a cloudy day. Both will see a high of 28°C and a low of 22°C.

Oil watch

Crude surges beyond USD 100 per barrel mark as blockage tightens: Global oil markets are reaching a critical tipping point, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to tankers. Last week alone, crude oil surged 30% — its biggest price jump in six years — and it was going for USD 117 / bbl in early trading this morning. Abu Dhabi’s Murban hit USD 103 / bbl on Friday.

Regional nations have already felt the brunt of this, with Iraq cutting its oil production by 60% due to export disruptions, Bloomberg reports.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) also hinted at having to reduce offshore production levels to “address storage requirements,” according to a statement picked up by state news agency Wam. Nonetheless, it confirmed operations are going ahead despite current regional tensions, and that it is using export capacity that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz alongside its global storage network, without disclosing any specifics.

Adnoc is likely referring to its Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which has a 1.5 mn bbl / d capacity — roughly half of the UAE’s total oil production — and bypasses the strait entirely. Saudi Arabia is also diverting crude to the Red Sea to bypass the chokepoint.

South Korea, for example, is reportedly still getting more than 6 mn barrels of crude from the UAE. Two South Korean tankers will head to an Emirati port that does not require passage through the Strait of Hormuz to lift some 4 mn barrels directly. The remaining 2 mn barrels will come from a joint UAE-South Korea stockpile stored inside the Asian country.

BACKGROUND- Korea National Oil Corp (KNOC) has a storage agreement with Adnoc that allows the Abu Dhabi-based company to store crude in Korean strategic reserves. The logic is that Adnoc gets storage access in Northeast Asia, while South Korea gets priority access to those barrels during emergencies. KNOC also has a similar agreement with Aramco.

The crisis intensified following President Donald Trump’s weekend warning that the US may widen its target range in Iran. The impact is being felt more acutely in import-reliant Asia and Europe, where jet fuel prices have hit an all-time high. Analysts at ING Group warn that a full three-month disruption could send oil prices to record levels through 2Q, as shipowners demand full naval escorts.

As for disruptions in the Strait, the US has a solution: It rolled out amaritime reins. initiative — including war risk — which will cover losses of up to USD 20 bn “on a rolling basis” for vessels in the Arabian Gulf, according to a statement released Friday by the country’s International Development Finance Corporation. For now, the coverage will focus on hull, machinery, and cargo.

Let’s break it down: The owners of ships currently stuck in the Arabian Gulf have said that naval escorts would not persuade them to transit while combat operations continue. Protecting the high volume of tankers transiting the region is viewed as impractical, as it would require a massive deployment of warships and other military assets.

It’s not just oil…

SUPPLY CHAINS — Airspace disruption may soon reroute gold: Ghana is drawing up contingency plans to send artisanal gold elsewhere if the UAE’s airspace disruptions persist, Reuters reports, citing sources briefed on the matter. It’s an early sign that disrupted Gulf skies are starting to interfere with one of Dubai’s quieter specialties of managing global gold flows.

Why Ghana cares: Dubai’s trade role isn’t just about passengers and shopping bags — it’s also a high-value cargo artery that much of Africa quietly depends on. About 80% of Ghana’s artisanal output lands in the UAE for refining.

A silver lining for Dubai? The fallback comes with a bigger bill: Shanghai and Indian refiners are emerging as alternatives, but traders say neither is cheap. Higher rerouting costs could help maintain Dubai as the preferred destination once skies clear.

WEALTH MANAGEMENT — The instability has also prompted high-net-worth individuals from Asia to consider moving their wealth out of Dubai, with Reuters reporting that the regional war has got investors thinking twice about setting up in the Emirates.

So, how bad is it? One Singapore-based wealth manager said 6-7 of his 20 Dubai-based customers were interested in moving their assets, around USD 50 mn each, out of the emirate. Others seemed more confident, with GrandWay Family Office’s Jeremy Lim stating that only the UAE becoming directly involved in the conflict would scupper its Abu Dhabi office plans.

DIPLOMACY — Australia has asked the families of UAE-based diplomats to leave the country, Reuters reports. Some 1.7k Australians have left the Emirates since the conflict began as the security situation in the region continues to deteriorate, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said, advising Australians not to travel to the UAE.

The big story abroad

Leading today’s global news cycle is the appointment of a new supreme leader in Iran. Mojtaba Khamenei — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son — is taking on the role after the killing of his father, according to Iranian state media. The decision was taken by a group of clerics known as the Assembly of Experts. US President Donald Trump had previously characterized the appointment of the former supreme leader’s son as “unacceptable.”

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