Good morning, wonderful people. It’s day six of the conflict, and while attacks on the UAE have seemed to slow, the impact of the disruptions is starting to feel more stark. As of today, a total of 78 people have been injured since the start of the attacks.

The (listed) business community has a message for you: It’s BAU: Nearly every issuer on ADX and DFM filed a disclosure yesterday to reassure investors that business continuity plans are in place and everything is operating as normal.

From Adnoc’s subsidiaries to Du and the country’s port operators, everyone emphasized “financial resilience” and stability. AD Ports even pointed to potential tailwinds (pdf) as it said shifting trade routes could increase volumes across its global maritime network, clarifying that most of its 122-vessel maritime and shipping clusters operate outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Also checking in with customers and shareholders:

  • DP World’s terminals at Jebel Ali Port are operating normally, state news agency Wam reports. The port operator has rolled-out enhanced security measures. DP World had suspended operations at the facility earlier this week.
  • Taqa has confirmed that operations across the nation continue as normal, including power generation, desalination, transmission, distribution, and wastewater services, Wam adds.

Outside the UAE, some regional heavyweights have invoked force majeure in their contracts, including QatarEnergy and Aluminium Bahrain, a sign that the war is hitting the commodities industry hard.

Still, there was a selloff in equities, with most names on the DFM and ADX falling at the opening bell. Markets closed the day lower — and each settled short of the -5% limit officials imposed before the day began.

^^ We have the rundown on yesterday’s trading and thoughts on what to expect when markets again later this morning in this morning’s Big Story Today.

PSA

School is out early: Spring break starts this coming Monday. The Education Ministry and Higher Education Ministry have fast-tracked the 2026 spring break to start on Monday, 9 March, according to a post on X. The holiday, originally scheduled to start on 16 March, applies to all private and public schools and universities in the UAE. The two-week break will last until Sunday, 22 March, with all students and staff set to return on Monday, 23 March.

WEATHER- Look for a high today of 27°C in Dubai and 26°C in Abu Dhabi along with overnight lows in the 22-23°C range.

How to get out of Dodge

#1- Some people are still in “Get out of Dodge” mode despite the relative calm. The road from the UAE to Oman is jammed with traffic, prompting Oman Air to advise a 12-hour buffer for people arriving in Oman from the UAE for a flight.

#2- Some visa application services have reopened: Operations at Dubai’s VFS Global center are partially resuming. New visa applications are still suspended for most countries, but the UK started accepting new applications yesterday, with online appointment booking and rescheduling enabled. Germany, France, Austria, and the Netherlands are now returning passports they already had in hand. Customers with existing appointments will be contacted to reschedule.

#3- Stranded travelers are exempt from delayed departure fines: The Federal Authority for Identity, Citizenship, Customs, and Ports Security has written off any late-departure fines for individuals who were unable to travel since 28 February, Wam reports. This applies to folks with visit, tourist, and exit visas as well as folks who cancelled their residency permits.

#4- The Abu Dhabi-Saudi passenger line trial just became operational: National passenger railway operator Etihad Rail confirmed it carried 350 passengers on a service between Al Ghuwaifat on the Saudi border and Al Faya in Abu Dhabi, according to a press release. Etihad ran a test on the route earlier this week.

BACKGROUND- The rail service hasn’t officially launched, but the operator announced it had completed a full set of stations in January. It is set to connect 11 cities this year and add seven new stations in later phases.

Watch this space

REAL ESTATE — Ongoing war sends shockwaves through global real estate markets: Speakers from sovereign wealth funds including Mubadala and the Qatar Investment Authority withdrew from this week’s Pere Asia Summit, Singapore’s most prominent real estate conference, Bloomberg reports. You can thank the suspension of flights.

The conflict has frozen expansion plans into the Gulf, with La Caisse Managing Director Josephine Yip confirming that the Canadian pension giant is temporarily pausing its exploration of Middle East real estate projects.

Investor sentiment is also wavering, with BlackRock’s Asia-Pacific real estate head Hamish MacDonald noting that no new agreements are being finalized. A drawn-out conflict could drive up inflation and borrowing costs, with incoming Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh warning that the US-Israel-Iran conflict has added a new level of uncertainty.

DEBT — Chinese financial institutions are scaling back their exposure to Middle Eastern debt and keeping their eye on their regional portfolios, Bloomberg reports. Regulators in Beijing and Hong Kong have reportedly directed lenders to audit their exposure to Middle Eastern sovereign and state-linked bonds, including those from heavyweights such as Saudi Aramco.

The impact: A major Chinese bank recently restricted a drawdown on a bilateral loan for an Abu Dhabi government entity, a source said, while others are reportedly trying to offload portions of ADQ’s USD 4 bn syndicated facility from last year.

MEANWHILE- The UAE is projected to lead GCC loan growth at 12%, as well as average operating net income at 3.4%, according to Fitch Ratings. This suggests that despite regional tensions, the UAE banking sector is still aggressively deploying capital. However, its Stage 3 (non-performing) loans remain at 3%, higher than the KSA and Kuwait averages.

REMEMBER- GCC banks have seen modest outflows so far.

Oil watch

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by more than 95% since the outbreak of the conflict, Bloomberg reports, with the waterway now rife with signal jamming and disabled transponders. Over 140 ships are sitting idle in the strait. One tanker did make it through to the UAE's Jebel Dhanna port yesterday, per Reuters — it smells more like a one-off than a signal that we’re returning to normal. A vessel off Fujairah was struck by a projectile of unknown origin shortly after, per UKMTO.

The blockade is already backing up the system: Fujairah bunker suppliers have declared force majeure, Argus reports, after drone debris hit the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone earlier this week — jeopardizing the UAE's only bypass around Hormuz.

Regional oil storage is filling fast and JPMorgan has warned that the UAE and Saudi Arabia may have to slash production within weeks, Bloomberg reports. Iraq is already there: it paused production at its biggest field and is suspending crude shipments through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey, pulling c.200k bbl / d from global markets. The UAE’s Dana Gas has suspended production at Iraq’s Khor Mor field due to security concerns, it said in a statement (pdf).

What to watch: Dubai crude benchmark prices spiked after Platts excluded Arabian Gulf loadings from its pricing. TotalEnergies bid for May-loading Dubai oil at USD 12 / bbl above benchmark on Platts' market-on-close platform — versus USD 1 / bbl a week earlier. Asian buyers including Japan, South Korea, and India are already feeling it even though physical crude and LNG flows haven’t been fully severed yet. Analysts expect strategic stockpiling and a push to renegotiate contracts with more flexibility to swap cargoes if regional transit stays untenable.

The big story abroad

US President Donald Trump is “actively considering” his administration’s role in Iran after the war, as the Senate turned down a resolution geared toward limiting his military operations in the Islamic Republic. It is not yet clear what this role will be upon the completion of the campaign, which is going “very well,” Trump said.

The war in the region has thrown a wrench in the policymaking of central banks, which must now reckon with resurgent inflation risks and soaring crude prices. Asian economies remain especially vulnerable, as most crude shipped via the Strait of Hormuz is Asia-bound.

MEANWHILE- China has penciled in growth of 4.5-5% for 2026, a step down from last year’s 5% and its most modest growth target in more than three decades.

AND- Apple unveiled its most affordable laptop ever — the MacBook Neo. The lightweight device is the company’s first low-cost offering in more than a decade, with prices starting at USD 599.

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