The region is holding its breath for a structural shock to its tourism industry regardless of how the ongoing conflict unfolds. Analysts and economists we spoke to over the past couple of days said the region’s aviation and tourism industries will suffer the brunt of the damage from the disruptions, as what were previously seen as safe havens — with a plethora of attractions and sunny weather year-round — will be seen through a new lens.

The data is sobering: Inbound arrivals to the region could contract by as much as 27% y-o-y this year, according to a research note from Tourism Economics seen by EnterpriseAM. That represents a swing of nearly 40 percentage points from prior growth forecasts — potentially wiping out as much as USD 56 bn in expected spend.

The impact was immediate: Cancellations of holidays more than doubled on 28 February after conflict erupted between the US, Israel, and Iran, Reuters reports, citing AirDNA data. The UAE saw 8.5k holiday rental cancellations that day, compared with a nightly average of about 3.1k cancellations throughout the rest of the month. The cancellation rate in Dubai and Abu Dhabi jumped to 43.8% on the same day, versus a February average of 14.5%. Most cancellations were for stays scheduled in March.

“GCC countries will see the largest losses in volume terms, as they are the largest destinations in the region which have previously relied on perceptions of safety and stability,” the research note says.

The airspace disruptions alone will be costly. More than 20k flights were canceled across the region in recent days, the newswire separately reports. Aircraft and crews are displaced, routes are being reconfigured to avoid closed airspace, and airlines face longer flight times and higher fuel burn. When airspace fully reopens, priority is expected to go to standard passengers and residents, delaying schedule normalization.

What’s at stake?

IN CONTEXT- The UAE is a major hub for inbound, outbound, and transit travel. The Middle East accounts for roughly 14% of global international transit traffic, placing Gulf hubs at the center of the shock.

Tourism is a top contributor to the UAE’s economy. It accounted for some AED 257.3 bn (USD 70.1 bn) of GDP in 9M 2025 — about 13% of output, state news agency Wam previously reported.

How long does sentiment take to recover?

Confidence in travel to the Middle East could remain weak through 2Q even in a short-conflict scenario, with gradual improvement into 3Q, Tourism Economics writes.

If the war lasts for two months or more, depressed sentiment could persist across much of the remainder of the year. Recovery, in other words, is measured in quarters — not weeks.

There are precedents: The 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities rattled markets but did not structurally derail GCC tourism. By contrast, prolonged instability in Lebanon in 2006 and in Egypt post-2011 saw multi-season recovery cycles.

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