Lebanon’s fragile tourism industry is hoping for summer season salvation: With a ceasefire (mostly) in place and air traffic gradually resuming, an early uptick in bookings have given tourism industry players a narrow window to rescue what they can of this year’s peak season. With the industry’s summer typically starting in mid-June and peaking in July and August, the next few weeks will be decisive.

“There’s still a chance to catch up with part of the summer season… It won’t be a normal summer — demand won’t return to previous standards or be enough for all hotels, but if conditions calm, the season won’t be lost entirely,” Cynthia Flouty, director of operations at Mövenpick Beirut, tells EnterpriseAM.

Early green shoots: Bookings have started to recover since the ceasefire came into effect last month, our sources tell us, albeit weakly and from a low base. “Before the conflict, we were averaging 70-80 bookings a day,” Flouty says, with that number dropping to just one or two during the war. “Most visitors now are Lebanese nationals living abroad, coming to check on their families or properties — and they’re not staying long,” she adds.

The full resumption of air travel is going to be a critical signal of the return to normalcy, Flouty tells us. “As soon as flights start resuming, it sends a positive signal, security-wise — especially for Lebanese nationals living abroad; and that’s usually enough to bring people back,” she says. “It doesn’t mean a full recovery overnight, but it reflects some positivity.”

Background: A handful of airlines, including Emirates, EgyptAir, Air Arabia, and Qatar Airways have resumed service to Beirut in the past few weeks, with plans to increase flight frequency if the ceasefire holds and demand picks up.

The survival playbook

For now, travel and tourism players are looking to keep their head above water by leaning on specific segments of travelers. The survival playbook also entails holding onto staff at almost any cost to avoid setting themselves up for failure down the road when demand picks up once again.

Niche demand to keep the lights on: “We’re now relying on journalists working for international outlets who stay in the hotel to cover the conflict, along with UN and NGO personnel, to stay afloat,” Flouty says. For other five-star hotels, demand is coming from embassy staff, airline crews, and corporate employees. That narrow band of travelers that’s keeping higher-tier hospitality afloat is nowhere near enough to cover the costs, but it’s keeping doors open. “These segments account for only around 20% of what would normally be full occupancy during a peak season, which hardly keeps the business going,” Flouty explains.

Mid-tier hotels, meanwhile, have an unexpected buffer. “Three-and four-star hotels are holding up better — they host displaced families coming from the south,” Alin Ghanem, managing director of Beirut-based travel agency Exclusive Services Group, tells EnterpriseAM. “Only around 5% of displaced people are staying in five-star hotels like Mövenpick or Le Royal. Anyone who can afford USD 150-200 a night usually opts to rent an apartment for longer stays… That’s why high-end hotels are taking the biggest hit. Stays are short. A journalist might come in for a day or two, then leave,” she adds.

DATA POINT- Beirut occupancy rates are currently in the range of 7-10%, occasionally edging up to around 12%, according to data picked up in the local media from Pierre Achkar, head of the Hotel Owners Association.

Businesses are also leaning on short-term expat and regional demand, which can move faster than international interest. Initial visitor flows are expected to originate from nearby regional markets — particularly Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt — where proximity and flexible travel patterns traditionally support last-minute bookings. “We’re hoping Eid Al Adha will help offset some losses. We’re offering flexible terms — free cancellations, refunds, last-minute payments — otherwise people simply won’t book visits,” Ghanem says.

European tourists are a write-off — at least for now, our sources say. They tend to plan ahead, and a fragile ceasefire isn’t enough to anchor their travel plans.

And even as things are looking very stop-and-go, industry players are doing their best to stave off staffing cuts, which would gut the sector’s ability to scale back up when demand returns. “For now, layoffs remain limited, but many hotels are cutting costs by putting staff on unpaid leave for a week or so every month. It’s a way to reduce cost without losing people,” Flouty says.

Avoiding layoffs is both an act of self-preservation and an important move for the country’s economy as a whole, as some 20% of Lebanon’s workforce is employed in the travel and tourism industry. “Laying off skilled personnel isn’t easy here. Once demand picks up again, it can take months to replace them, and the sector is already facing a shortage of experienced personnel, as many leave the country whenever conditions deteriorate,” Flouty tells us.

But holding on comes at a cost. “The longer this drags on, the harder it gets. Everyone is absorbing the costs, but there’s a limit to how much each hotel can bear,” she adds.

Gazing into the crystal ball

“A clear and lasting ceasefire in the coming weeks could still rescue the summer season, but it’s unlikely to match previous levels, especially with elevated airfares,” Nassib Ghobril, chief economist at Byblos Bank, tells EnterpriseAM. “If volatility persists, the peak months will take a direct hit… Those with dates in June have already been postponed or canceled, while others later in the season are still waiting after paying deposits and securing flights and hotels,” he added.

Either way, some segments are already lost. Anything that needs planning lead time is essentially written off for the rest of the year. “One early sign: no major festivals, cultural or artistic, have been announced yet, even though planning would normally be underway by now,” Ghobril adds.

“As long as the ceasefire remains fragile, we can’t operate or market properly. And ins. is a major barrier — no company will cover travelers heading into a war zone,” Ghanem said.

Why the stakes are high

While tourism is a natural victim of conflict, Lebanon’s tourism industry entered the crisis with no buffer left. “Tourism is always the first sector to take a hit when the security situation deteriorates,” Ghobril says. Tourism and hospitality players in Lebanon are well-accustomed to stop-start cycles, but the last few years have layered repeat crises from a mix of internal dysfunction and repeated attacks from Israel, leaving businesses with no breathing room for recovery.

Lebanese tourism hinges on momentum — one season feeding into the next, from the year-end holidays into a spring build-up ahead of the summer peak. This year, that sequence broke, disrupting not just leisure travel but the wider web of demand — from expatriate weddings and family reunions to conferences, exhibitions, and festivals.

The regional scope of the disruptions also makes it harder for Lebanon. “In the past, conflicts were more contained, and once they ended, we would see a quick rebound, particularly from Gulf visitors in Qatar and Kuwait. Now, the disruption is regional — and Gulf markets themselves are affected, which makes the recovery much more uncertain,” Flouty says. Gulf-based travelers, whether Lebanese expatriates or GCC nationals, constitute a good chunk of the hospitality economy’s customer base in Lebanon, we are told.

The downturn is rippling across the entire industry — hitting not just hotels, but the wider network of businesses that depend on visitor spending: restaurants, nightlife, taxis, and tourist sites are all suffering.

Tourism and remittances are Lebanon’s primary engines of growth and FX liquidity. With the collapse of tourism and an ongoing banking crisis, the impact ripples across the economy — with the Institute of International Finance (IIF) describing the sector’s woes as the “primary driver” of a forecasted GDP contraction of 12-16%.

BY THE NUMBERS: Tourism revenues have averaged around USD 6 bn annually between 2002 and 2024, before slipping to roughly USD 4.7 bn in 2025. If you think that was a sharp drop, wait until you see the 2026 data in a few months.