Good afternoon, friends, and welcome to a new workweek. AI’s safety problem and its pricing problem both surfaced over the weekend, and the people being asked to fund the industry are starting to treat them as one question.
An AI agent broke into three real companies because a test was left connected to the live internet. Google’s Gemini, running a cybersecurity exercise in May, went past its simulated target — guessing its way into one network and using login credentials it found exposed online to get into two more, the Wall Street Journal reports. Google says no damage was done and the model stopped once it recognized the systems were real, but it told the three firms and federal authorities only after the WSJ started asking.
Anthropic’s IPO now has to price that kind of risk alongside a price war. Investors weighing the listing are questioning whether the company can sustain its growth as competition, price-sensitive customers and the risks of the technology itself cloud the offering, the Financial Times reports. Annualized revenue hit USD 65 bn in July and backers are projecting above USD 120 bn by year-end, but OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Meta’s Muse Spark are undercutting Claude on price.
On deck for this week: The United Nations General Assembly’s high-level week opens tomorrow and runs to next Monday, 28 September, with Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu both on the speaker list. Beyond the war-related tensions, keep an eye on UN Secretary General António Guterres’ push for international cooperation on AI, which Washington and Brussels are resisting. — Salma
The UAE has answered a question most markets are still arguing about: What, exactly, is a token? The country’s capital market law overhaul, the Federal Decree-Law No. 33 of 2025 that took effect on 1 January 2026, classifies tokens by the asset inside them — not the blockchain wrapping them — and requires a separate license for each category. With Egypt still running a sandbox, and most of the GCC still dipping its toes in tokenized-backed assets, the UAE’s approach is well-positioned to become the benchmark the rest of the region will either adopt, adapt, or consciously reject.
The law reconstituted the old Securities and Commodities Authority as the new Capital Markets Authority and drew a hard line: Tokenized sukuk are still regulated as securities, and virtual assets are defined to exclude anything already classified as a security. The CMA’s regulatory power applies to security tokens and expressly excludes virtual assets, which fall under the jurisdiction of the Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), Ola Sanni, a UAE-based associate at White & Case, tells EnterpriseAM.
“We don’t care what the technology is; we care what the asset is.” That’s how Soham Jathani, partner at UAE-based business legal and strategy advisory firm Septten Advisors, described the CMA’s stance to us. “If you say a token is a security, it does not matter that it is inside a token — an Apple share is still a security, and security rules apply,” Soham says.
That means a tokenized Apple share, a special purpose vehicle (SPV) unit backed by real estate, and a sukuk all enter the securities regime. Cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Solana — tokens that carry no claim on an underlying instrument but are bought and sold as investments in their own right — sit in a separate virtual-asset track, Jathani says. A pure utility token that stays inside its own ecosystem, like airline loyalty points, does not trigger financial regulation at all, he adds.
SOUND SMART- Tokenization means recording ownership of an asset — a building, a fund unit, a bond, or even precious metals — as digital units on a blockchain rather than in a traditional registry or fund ledger. The token is a claim on the underlying asset: owning the token means owning that slice of it. The tokenization’s main pitch has been a widened access case: Lower minimums, more investors in. But there’s more: Full transaction traceability for every ownership change, verified data that sophisticated investors can use before deploying capital, and — for regulators — a digitized ledger that lets authorities measure and manage a sector that, in Egypt’s case with real estate, represents 10% of the GDP, and even 20% in some estimates.
That clarity matters because the rest of the region does not yet have it yet. “[Saudi] has not adopted an equivalent standalone security-token regime,” Ola Sanni tells us. And both Qatar and Bahrain have a framework on the books that are not yet tested in full.
The CMA framework was also designed to close a loophole that any market writing its own rules will have to address. During the 2016-2018 token-issuance boom, companies worldwide argued their tokens were utilities rather than securities to dodge tighter regulation — even when the tokens were plainly being sold as investment instruments. “Companies — and I was part of this effort back then — argued, ‘It’s not a security because we aren’t raising money on the token itself; the token is the key to unlocking features on our blockchain,’” Jathani says.
The CMA’s answer is to accept the premise and demand the proof: Issuers justify their classification case by case. If the regulator is not persuaded, the activity does not proceed, Jathani explains.
The regulator’s bottom-line diagnostic: “Are you asking someone to trust you with their money? That does not strictly mean holding their funds. Are you offering investment advice or suggesting a return? If the answer is even partially 'yes,' you likely require regulation.”
Why the asset class matters more than the tech
The virtual asset vs. a security split sounds clean on paper, but it gets complicated when the tokenized asset is physical rather than financial. That is where the regulatory learning becomes most relevant to the rest of the region, because real estate is the asset class driving most tokenization activity from Dubai to Cairo.
A tokenized sukuk can sit within securities law and preserve established SPV or trust structures, with the token recording rights in the underlying instrument. Tokenized real estate raises a different question. “Its effectiveness ultimately depends on land-registry law and whether the relevant registry framework recognizes the tokenized record as evidence of title or transfer,” Sanni says. The CMA rules reflect this by excluding real-world assets unless the tokenized asset represents a security.
Real estate tokenization can take two fundamentally different paths, and the regulatory treatment depends on which one you choose. The first is registry-native or civil law Dubai’s Land Department tokenizes title deeds directly on the government registry, with the token functioning as the ownership record because the state recognizes it. The Dubai Land Department (DLD) opened secondary-market trading for c. 7.8 mn property tokens on 20 February 2026 via platforms including PRYPCO Mint and Ctrl Alt. “This is a separate government-led infrastructure project, rather than part of the CMA security-token regime,” Sanni notes — meaning it lives outside the securities framework entirely.
The second path runs through an SPV. A platform that wants to fractionalize a portfolio of properties would typically transfer the title deeds into an SPV and sell shares of that vehicle. “You are not tokenizing houses directly; you are tokenizing SPV shares,” Jathani says. “If you sell shares, standard securities regulations apply.” That puts the platform squarely inside the CMA’s securities regime — a different regulator, a different licensing track, and different consumer-protection requirements than the DLD model.
And when it comes to real estate tokenization, no company illustrates that flow more clearly than Nawy. Egypt’s largest proptech is pursuing multiple licenses simultaneously — a multi-tranche real estate fund structure and fintech license with Egypt’s Financial Regulatory Authority. And in the UAE, it is building a tokenization business under the UAE’s rules while assembling a structure in Egypt that delivers the same outcomes through entirely different regulatory plumbing.
ICYMI- Nawy acquired the UAE-based proptech SmartCrowd last year and secured an in-principle approval from VARA to launch a real estate tokenization platform earlier this year. SmartCrowd, however, operates under the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA), which has a similar approach to the CMA but different from it, Sanni tells us.
The SmartCrowd acquisition is about getting ahead in the jurisdiction that already has those rules. “Acquiring SmartCrowd is a key step in expanding fractional ownership across the GCC,” Ayman Magdy, managing director of Nawy Shares, tells EnterpriseAM. “It lets us cross-introduce concepts over time — bringing rental yield models to Egypt and off-plan fractionalization to the UAE — subject to regulatory approval in each market,” he adds. Whether SmartCrowd will tokenize directly onto the DLD registry or use an SPV model is still being worked out, Magdy says.
In Egypt, Nawy has been operating under a traditional fractionalization framework for the last few years. It launched its fractional real estate business in 2023, dividing properties into 20 to 40 shares with down payments as low as EGP 20-25k (USD 380-480). Assets under management sit at around EGP 10 bn (USD 190 mn) with more than 7k active investors, Magdy says.
The model ran on Egyptian civil law — preliminary sale contracts — but is now shifting into a purpose-built regulatory structure. “We’ve worked with the FRA to adapt the Nawy Shares business model into real estate fund regulations,” Magdy says. The result is a multi-tranche real estate fund. “[That] setup allows us to release properties unit-by-unit on a tranche basis. A separate licensed asset management company manages these assets. This entity holds receiving, promotion, and subscription licenses, alongside a fintech license," he explains. “The fund is live and operating under full FRA supervision. The one outstanding licence is the fintech license, which will let us provide a more streamlined experience for investors with digital KYC, e-signatures and more,” he tells us.
This new structure will make Nawy tokenization-ready for what Egypt may have in the works — not through title-deed tokens, but through a real estate fund. In this model, investors will get investment certificates registered with Misr Clearing, replacing the preliminary paper contracts the model launched with, with net asset values reassessed every six months by an independent valuer registered with the CBE or the FRA, Magdy tells us. And the recent changes in real estate funds rules paves the way. The FRA extended the maximum fund lifespan from five years to as long as 20, matching the 12- to 15-year payment plans that dominate Egypt’s off-plan market. The result is a digital, registry-recorded, independently valued ownership instrument with a secondary market on the way — a structure that could absorb blockchain-based settlement with relatively little retrofitting if Egypt eventually writes tokenization rules of its own, Magdy says.
IN CONTEXT- Egypt is not running a registry-focused tokenization experiment. It is going right away to securities.Granite and Tarmiiz's FRA sandbox — a distributed ledger running alongside a centralized ownership register for a money market fund — is Egypt’s one live tokenization experiment. It tests infrastructure, not market access, and does not cover real estate. It signals the FRA’s willingness to let the technology prove itself before writing permanent rules, but it is a long way from the comprehensive framework the UAE already has.
The cross-border wall
A tokenized sukuk issued under one jurisdiction’s rules “has no automatic right to be held or traded in another jurisdiction in the region,” Sanni tells us. Recognition depends on whether the receiving jurisdiction recognizes the offering and issuer, whether custody and settlement systems can interoperate, and which law governs title, finality, and insolvency. “There is no established GCC-wide reciprocal framework addressing those issues,” he adds.
Jathani puts a timeline on it: Another five years. “Cross-border trade requires home regulators to become comfortable within their domestic markets before establishing arrangements with international counterparts,” he says. “Cross-border integration will occur when tokenized asset investments reach a critical mass that forces international cooperation and standardized global rules. We have not reached that threshold yet,” Jathani tells us.
How would the sequence look like? “The next step would be mutual recognition of regulated issuers and custodians, consistent conflict-of-laws rules for digital securities and interoperable cross-border settlement infrastructure,” Sanni says.
The war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has reached the Kingdom’s largest cities and is pulling in outside powers to clamp it down. Yemen’s Houthis said they hit “sensitive” sites in Riyadh with missiles and drones on Saturday, hours after a fire broke out near Riyadh’s main airport and reports of explosions in the Olaya district, Reuters reports. The group also said it targeted Aramco facilities in Yanbu using ballistic and cruise missiles. The Kingdom has not commented. Beyond the capital, Saudi civil defense also issued brief emergency alerts across Jeddah, Yanbu, Taif, and other cities over the weekend.
The Kingdom prevented other attacks on various civilian targets: Saudi air defense intercepted a ballistic missile launched toward the capital yesterday, according to a statement. The Houthis also attempted to target civilians and civilian infrastructure in Baish, Taif, Farasan, and Yanbu, but the attacks were thwarted, the statement said.
The Kingdom is pulling in external players — with mixed results. Beijing has asked Tehran to help rein in the Houthis after a Saudi appeal, three Iranian sources told Reuters. China wants the conflict kept clear of its energy routes — around half its oil imports come from the region, and annual China-GCC trade runs to ~USD 300 bn. Tehran, whose oil exports rely 80%+ on Chinese buyers, replied that regional stability depends on ending the war with the US and Israel.
Pakistan and Turkey are being pulled in too: Pakistan’s army chief warned Iran that further escalation could push Islamabad to defend Saudi Arabia if Riyadh invokes the mutual-defense clause in the Makkah Defense Pact, the Financial Times reports. Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan says Ankara is ready to help meet Saudi military needs, especially on technical issues.
But the mechanics are complicated: Any intervention needs a formal request from the state under attack, plus Turkish parliamentary ratification (expected October). Both Ankara and Islamabad carry longstanding ties with Iran, and Pakistan is leaning on Saudi financial support — a recent USD 3 bn loan and a USD 5 bn deposit extension. “None of this appears to be working,” a diplomat told the salmon-colored paper. “Everybody is waiting to see what happens over the next two weeks.”
Lebanon raised the official price of a medium-sized bundle of white bread by LBP 5k to LBP 80k (USD 0.89) — the latest sign of a fuel-cost squeeze rippling through MENA’s net energy importers. The Economy and Trade Ministry said diesel accounts for roughly 22% of bread production costs, and noted the pass-through works both ways: A drop in fuel costs would trigger a cut.
The bread hike follows a fuel-price surge on 11 September, when the Energy Ministry raised diesel by LBP 52k (USD 0.28) and 95- and 98-octane gasoline by LBP 49k (USD 0.55) per 20-liter can, pushing a 20-liter can of 95-octane and mazout to around USD 30.
Lebanon has been on a repricing spree this year: Bread has been repriced five times this year, and fuel rates were amended about 17 times — more than doubling over the period. With Saudi’s bypass targeted by the Houthis, crude and refined products prices are heading for the worst.
The squeeze is compounding an already frayed economy: Bank depositors clashed with security forces outside Bank of Beirut and the Economy Ministry on Thursday, protesting the deadlocked deposit-recovery bill as an IMF delegation met with Finance Ministry officials.
And it’s not just Lebanon: Syria raised diesel 40% this month, triggering the widest protests since Assad’s fall. Iraq also lifted fuel subsidies on commercial and industrial sectors on 1 September, setting new fuel prices ranging between USD 0.57-0.92 per liter, but has since denied plans to raise them further. Egypt is also expected to announce a second fuel-price hike this year, following March’s increase.
Saudi Arabia has stepped back from China-anchored mBridge, a blockchain-backed platform that settles cross-border transactions outside SWIFT and the USD, Financial Times reports. The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) told the newspaper it completed its mBridge proof of concept in May 2025 and has not been a participating member since — about a year after joining as a full participant in June 2024, having first come on as an observer in 2023.
SOUND SMART- mBridge lets central banks settle payments directly in digital versions of their own currencies over a shared blockchain ledger, cutting out the USD-mediated, correspondent-banking chain that typically runs through SWIFT. The platform offers faster and cheaper transactions, as well as being outside the US’ sanctions reach. Was the US behind the decision? The system sidesteps the US’ sanctions reach by presenting an alternative to the USD-mediated system — a fraught possibility that led the Trump administration to previously threaten 100% tariffs on BRICS members. One person familiar with SAMA’s decision told the FT it would be wrong to read too much into a limited-scope trial, while a second source complicated that framing, telling the FT that Saudi Arabia continues to engage with mBridge “more discreetly.” The Central Bank of the UAE, a founding member, is still an active participant, alongside the central banks of China, Thailand, Mongolia, Macau, and Hong Kong. Founded in 2021, the platform was led by the Bank for International Settlements, a multilateral institution with 63 central banks as members, until it stepped back in October 2024 under US pressure due to exposure to sanctioned Russia. The mBridge is still in the pilot phase, and we don’t have a fixed date for its commercial launch.
REMEMBER- SAMA isn’t new to cross-border digital transaction experiments. It ran an earlier bilateral pilot, Project Aber, with the UAE in 2019-2020. The UAE, however, remains ahead in the region when it comes to the financial and regulatory infrastructure facilitating digital currencies.
Qatar has built the machinery for a privatization program before naming a single company to put through it. Doha Investment now holds the call on which state companies list and when, so the first name it sends to the Qatar Stock Exchange will tell us more about Doha’s intent than yesterday’s launch did. Elsewhere, Adia keeps turning up in Indian order books, and Sawiris’ route to folding OCI into Orascom now runs through a cash tender.
Qatar has put 45 state companies — and the decision on whether to list them — under one roof. Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani yesterday announced Doha Investment, a new division of the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) that will oversee 45 state-owned enterprises, roughly a third of QIA’s c. USD 580 bn in assets. Its mandate covers national champions, emerging companies, capital-market depth, and privatization. Commerce and Industry Minister Sheikh Faisal bin Thani Al-Thani is managing director and vice-chairman.
Why it matters: Any Qatari privatization or Qatar Stock Exchange listing pipeline now runs through a single counterparty with a sitting minister at the helm. For the ECM bankers who have spent this year looking for mandates outside the Gulf, Doha Investment is now the first call on Qatar.
Nassef Sawiris’ take-private of OCI Global is now the gate the Orascom merger has to clear. His family office NNS Holding opened its EUR 4.10-a-share cash offer last week after AFM approval, per a statement (pdf). OCI holders vote on the Orascom Construction merger at a 30 October EGM, but it can’t close until the offer pays out: The tender closes 17 November and settles c. 27 November, inside the 30 December long-stop. One permitted extension of up to 10 weeks would run past it, by our math.
Most of the float is spoken for. Buying below its offer price through July (pdf) and August (pdf) took NNS to 57.50% with Sawiris’ own shares, from 49.21% in mid-April. With a 9.07% family block locked up, c. EUR 290 mn remains in play. The Enterprise Chamber froze OCI’s vote in January and Value8 asked it to block the deal this month.
Adia has become one of the steadiest anchors in India’s primary market. Its India unit Monsoon was allocated 1.1 mn shares — 2.96% of the anchor book — in the National Stock Exchange of India’s (NSE) IPO at the top of the c. INR 1.8k price band, worth c. INR 2 bn (USD 20.9 mn), per an NSE filing (pdf). That ties it with the Monetary Authority of Singapore, behind only LIC (5.93%) and Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global (3.71%). The USD 2.3 bn IPO closes today, with listing expected this Thursday, 24 September.
Saudi Arabia’s new SME strategy is getting its first money, along with a warning that money won’t be enough. Monsha’at signed with STC Bank to provide up to SAR 5 bn in shariah-compliant SME financing, SPA reports, days after the Kingdom approved a national SME strategy that puts access to finance first. Tenors run up to ten years, covering working capital, equipment, receivables, e-commerce, and trade finance.
Lendo added up to SAR 890 mn through three partnerships unveiled at Money 20/20 in Riyadh: SAR 750 mn with Vienna-based Quantic Financial Solutions, SAR 100 mn with BSF Capital, and SAR 40 mn with the Social Development Bank.
The capacity gap: Without skills in finance, data, and technology, capital “risks becoming temporary liquidity rather than a tool for expansion,” talent consultant Sahar Al Samdany told us. SME development consultant Ali Al Ghadeer wants stage-matched financing and access to procurement chains alongside it.
Banque Misr’s consumer finance arm is scaling up its securitizations quickly.BM Consumer Finance (Souhoola) put c. EGP 883 mn of securitized paper to market, backed by an EGP 1.05 bn receivables portfolio, per a statement (pdf). Its third issuance, structured through Capital Securitization, comes in two tranches: EGP 700 mn over 12 months (rated Prime 1 by MERIS) and EGP 183 mn over 22 months (A-).
That’s 51% bigger thanDecember’s EGP 585 mn and 85% above the EGP 478 mn debut in November 2024, taking the program to c. EGP 1.95 bn of EGP 3.5 bn, by our math. The rules have tightened since: the Central Bank of Egypt now caps single-originator securitization exposure and assigns a 150% risk weight to short-term Prime 1 paper, which makes Souhoola’s larger tranche costlier for bank buyers to hold.
Turkey’s fund-meltdown cleanup has passed from the central bank to two lenders. The central bank contained last week’s turmoil by expanding one-week repo funding 300-fold to TRY 300 bn (USD 6.2 bn), lifting interbank borrowing caps tenfold, and cutting margin-trading equity requirements to 20% from 35% until 2 October.
Isbank and Ziraat now have to sell. The Capital Markets Board (SPK) tapped them on Friday to unwind TRY 890 bn (USD 18.3 bn) across 131 funds run by seven managers, Reuters reports. Isbank takes Tera Portfoy, whose TRY 366 bn (USD 7.5 bn) default triggered the run; Ziraat takes the other six.
What’s next: They have three months to pay 350k-plus investors out of a few small-float names, where rushing risks a second leg down — the test of Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek’s claim that the crisis is short-term and poses no systemic risk.
Mashreqtightened pricingby 30bp on aUSD 500 mn five-year bond, to 115bp over US Treasuries from +145bp guidance, on a USD 925 mn book including USD 50 mn of joint lead manager interest. The notes, rated A by Fitch and S&P, carry a 5.625% coupon and yield 5.736%. FAB and DP World each tightened c. 25bp on their own deals the same week.
Why it matters: Books across recent UAE issuance have run lighter than in earlier rounds, a regional banker not involved told Zawya — part of why issuers are holding at USD 500 mn rather than stretching. Bookrunners included ADCB, Emirates NBD, FAB, and Mashreq itself alongside eight international banks.
Jordan’s tourism sector notched its third consecutive month of double-digit growth. The sector’s income rose 17.2% y-o-y in August to USD 1.1 bn, continuing a growth trajectory that kicked off in June, according to preliminary Central Bank of Jordan data, cited by Petra. The reversal of fortunes in June-August was robust enough to tip the 8M income figures into growth territory, rising by about 3% y-o-y to USD 5.6 bn. While the growth rate is much lower than what was logged in 2025, it marks a reversal of a bleak downward trend that peaked in April when income fell as much as 27%, and occupancies fell across the country nearly to zero.
Some travellers are not yet back to Jordan, and the breakdown for the 8M period shows who’s still missing. Income from Arab visitors rose 16.3% and Asian 9.5%, while income from other segments continued to fall: Jordanian expatriates (-5.9%), Americans (-17.1%), and Europeans (-23.7%).
Zoned in
Egypt’s investment-zone regime is becoming the standard regulatory wrapper for Gulf-backed real estate megaprojects. The Madbouly cabinet last week approved a draft decree designating Qatari Diar’s 4.9k-feddan Alam Al Roum development an investment zone, according to a cabinet statement. The USD 29.7 bn project runs along the Alexandria-Matrouh coastal road and will host residential, tourism, commercial, administrative, and service activities.
Alam Al Roum is the second Gulf sovereign-backed megaproject to receive the designation in 18 months. ADQ’s USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma development — 90 km east along the same coast — got both an investment zone and a special free zone in April 2024, along with a golden license. The pattern generalized to a domestic developer in July, when the cabinet approved The Spine, a 506-feddan, EGP 1.4 tn TMG project inside Madinaty in New Cairo — Egypt’s first privately developed investment zone.
Why the designation matters: The regime bundles fiscal incentives with a single-window regulator. Projects inside investment zones qualify for streamlined approvals through the General Authority for Investment and Free Zones’ (GAFI) Investor Service Center, which handles incorporation, permits, and land allocation. They also get a flat 2% customs duty on imported machinery and a deduction of up to 50% of investment costs from taxable income for up to seven years, under the Investment Law of 2017 (pdf).
ZOOMING OUT- Egypt is repurposing a tool designed for industry to mega real estate projects. At least 20 projects have the designation, with five considered real estate and tourism projects, in our calculation — all granted sometime in the last two years.
Sukuk starter
The first of more to come? Syrian banks are putting together a syndicated Islamic financing package to fund state-led development projects. The package is arranged by Al Baraka Bank Syria, QNB Syria, and the state-owned Commercial Bank of Syria, with sovereign backing from the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank of Syria.
This marks the first time the government has tapped domestic banks for funds in post-Assad Syria. It also comes as Syria’s financing needs grow due to reconstruction needs and a rising energy imports bill due to Hormuz disruptions. After ending 2025 with a surplus, Syria ran a USD 1 bn deficit in 1H 2026.
The details are sparse. The package size, its interest rate, and tenor were not disclosed, but we know it will fund two projects in Damascus: An underground tunnel linking the city’s west and east, and the final phase of the Qasioun Journey tourism project.
Can this model be replicated? Government officials are hoping the financing package will work as a model that could extend to larger projects, while offering a structure to follow for other banks in the country. Whether this materializes will be key to watch — Syrian banks’ domestic liquidity is shallow, and the sector is in need of big injections to recapitalize, we reported earlier this year.
Thinning buffers
17.2% — that’s how much Iraq lost from its foreign reserves in the first seven months this year. Iraq entered 2026 with USD 97.4 bn in its buffers, and was at USD 80.6 bn by the end of July, according to Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) data. CBI investments also contracted by USD 14 bn over the same period, and vault cash collapsed from USD 1.47 bn to just USD 95 mn. Assuring the public: To address media debates around FX shortages, the CBI announced that it holds sufficient foreign exchange reserves to fulfill all demands for foreign currency to finance foreign trade, settle payment card transactions, and meet travelers’ requests for USD at the official exchange rate — attributing the weakening exchange rate mostly to speculation as a result of geopolitical developments.
REMEMBER- As Iraq continues to struggle with exporting its crude oil, public debt has reached IQD106.07 tn (c. USD 81 bn) at the end of June — up 2.8% from May and 17.2% since the start of 2026. With rising debt and reduced domestic liquidity, the Iraqi government is faced with two options: reduce spending on investments or seek foreign financing either from multilateral lenders like the IMF or foreign commercial banks at high rates, a scenario we previously flagged back in May.