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Securitize all the things

1

OPENING NOTE

Pass the popcorn

It’s a huge weekend for Middle East finance nerds who are also football fans — the venn diagram there is … nearly a circle? We have the start of trading of SpaceX shares later today and a weekend of World Cup matches to which to look forward, with Qatar taking to the pitch tomorrow plus Morocco and Türkiye each playing on Sunday.

Don’t expect much more sleep as next week gets underway: Egypt and Tunisia each have games on Monday, while Saudi and Iran play on Tuesday, and Iraq, Jordan, and Algeria all have matches Wednesday.

Our Lede this morning to send you off into the weekend: A look at the unglamorous — but critically important and recently controversial — financial instrument that is the life blood of the consumer and SME finance industries in MENA+.

Also today: Gulf sovereigns show no sign their appetite for AI investments is waning despite the lingering overhang from America’s war with Iran.

Worth reading this morning: Jeff Bezos tells the Financial Times that far from a jobs apocalypse or paperclip-driven extinction-level event, he thinks AI will usher in “multiple golden ages.” His new USD 41 bn Prometheus lab aims to use the technology to transform everything from manufacturing and space to biotech.

“The people who are jumping to the conclusion that the jobs are all going to go away . . . I think these people are just wrong,” Bezos tells the salmon-colored paper, saying that “all of the things that I work on today have something to do with AI. I think you’re going to see a whole bunch of incredible miracles unfold here in the next decade.”

From Swole Bezos to Jeff The Optimist in one clean act. Here’s hoping. –Patrick and Salma

2

THE LEDE

Show me the money

The UAE and Saudi Arabia, the two Gulf real estate and financial services heavyweights, are writing new securitization rulebooks this summer. Tadawul has drafted amendments out for consultation until 14 June that would give securitization and asset-backed issuances their own framework — splitting rules on debt offerings from those for equities and adding disclosure requirements tailored to structured deals. The UAE, meanwhile, has the regulatory framework on the books for publicly listed securitized issuances, but the market remains embryonic. A rule change could bring the asset class to life from Abu Dhabi to Dubai and beyond.

The market both are of them are trying to build already exists a two- or three-hour flight to the west: Egypt is home to the region’s deepest and most sophisticated market for securitized debt — and it has recently become the first in MENA+ to confront what happens when the product really takes off.

Why it matters: Securitization is the funding engine of non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs) — the consumer lenders, leasing firms, microfinance players, and fintechs that reach the borrowers to whom banks are less likely to lend. How the Gulf sets up these frameworks will shape market-wide access to liquidity for consumers and small businesses, constrain how the fintech and consumer-credit booms get funded, and determine whether the next wave of capital comes from local banks, global houses like JPMorgan and Goldman, or the private credit funds circling the region. Egypt’s decade of experience — including its current regulatory correction — is the closest thing we have to a regional field manual.

SOUND SMART- Securitization turns buckets of small, illiquid loans into a single tradable security. An issuer bundles car loans, installment plans, or lease receivables into a pool, then usually sells it to an investor through a special purpose vehicle (SPV). The SPV issues bonds or sukuk backed by the monthly payments. The issuer gets cash today instead of collecting for years, giving it the option of putting that liquidity back to work in the form of new lending. Hatem Samir, CEO of GlobalCorp, one of the top NBFI platforms in Egypt and a pioneer of the industry, previously told our Egypt desk that securitization is one of the most efficient tools for “offloading and recycling bank debt.”

(Egypt’s NBFI sector is so attractive that GlobalCorp’s anchor investors have — despite the ongoing war in the Gulf — kept alive alive an exit process that has attracted significant interest from regional players including at least one UAE financial institution, as we reported last month.)

Egypt got here first

Egypt was the first of the Big Three regional markets to grow a sophisticated non-bank financial services industry. Contact, now a diversified EGX-listed platform, was the early pioneer, pushing into consumer finance with car loans. The tipping point for the industry came when EFG Hermes (the biggest homegrown investment bank in the region — also EGX-listed) launched a leasing business in 2015, targeting SMEs as well as large companies impatient with the notoriously slow turnaround times of most Egyptian banks.

EFG Hermes saw the push into consumer and corporate lending as a great way to both cross-sell to existing clients and smooth-out its earnings — investment banking is, by nature, a feast-or-famine game. Its competitors loved what they saw and launched ventures of their own in a few short years. Everyone from real estate players to car distributors and home electronics retailers followed suit.

Investment bankers may have pioneered the Egyptian industry, but they didn’t have it to themselves for long: The same startup boom that aimed to “disrupt” everything from logistics to food came for finance, too, and no venture-backed industry was hotter than fintech.

Any company pushing into consumer finance quickly finds that its own equity is a really inefficient (and expensive) way of financing a loan book. With banks reticent to provide working capital, most companies turned to securitization, which soon morphed from a cottage industry into a mainstay that keeps armies of lawyers and consultants employed.

Who buys securitized offerings? Mostly those slow, risk-averse banks, which are more than happy to buy portfolios after someone else does the dirty work of building quality portfolios.

Securitization became even more important when the end of “free money” saw venture funding dry up. Securitization is at the heart of the 57% y-o-y growth of Egypt’s consumer finance market posted in 2025, closing the year with EGP 96.3 bn on the books, with some 48 licensed companies having extended credit to more than 10.8 mn customers. Financing extended to MSMEs and microfinance clients rose 24% y-o-y to EGP 106.9 bn, though the number of beneficiaries edged down slightly to 3.6 mn. And total financed portfolios across all NBFI verticals closed at c. EGP 417 bn for the year, according to the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA), which regulates the industry.

A tool for growth: “Securitization was once used primarily to optimize the balance sheet,” Imane Raouf, partner and lead securitization expert at Matouk Bassiouny, tells EnterpriseAM. says. “Now, it plays an important role in improving liquidity, boosting revenues, and managing regulatory ratios. It has evolved into a strategic tool for growth.”

The scale of issuances tell the story: From fintech player Valu, a unit of EFG Holding and itself now listed on the EGX, to EFG Corp-Solutions, Contact, GlobalCorp, GB Lease, units of fintech unicorn MNT-Halan, and real estate giant Talaat Moustafa Group, every blue-chip NBFI in Egypt has offloaded portfolios with bns and bns of EGP using the tool. The asset class now draws interest not just from Egyptian banks, but from global investors.

The FRA has spent more than a decade constantly tweaking and updating its regulatory framework in a bid to keep pace with companies that are both innovating and hungrily borrowing structures and ideas from markets around the world. From SPVs and asset transfers to disclosure and issuance procedures, it had to build the airplane while flying it.

“One of the strengths of the Egyptian framework is that it has evolved with the market rather than remaining static,” Raouf says. As fintech and consumer finance created new asset classes, she notes, the rules adapted to accommodate them — “allowing securitization to remain a relevant funding mechanism for evolving business models while maintaining appropriate safeguards.”

In the process, the FRA has gone from being the stodgy regulator of the Egyptian Exchange (yes, we’re oversimplifying — but not by much) to the overseer of a massive shadow lending pool that exists outside the banking system, but that counts on banks as its biggest “offtakers.”

Now, the Central Bank of Egypt is pushing back.

Egypt’s regulatory correction

By most estimates, domestic banks buy about 90% of the paper issued by Egyptian NBFIs, and the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has grown wary of how much bank liquidity the sector is absorbing. The result? It moved to cap banks’ exposure to securitized portfolios at 5% of a bank’s given loan portfolio, limit each one’s exposure to any single leasing company to 1%, and tightened oversight of banks' NBFI-related transactions — setting up a jurisdictional tug-of-war with the FRA.

One of Egypt’s most prominent bankers lit a match a few weeks back. Hisham Ezz Al-Arab leads CIB, the EGX-listed bank loved by foreign investors as a proxy for the wider Egyptian economy. It’s also the largest bank in the country not owned by the state.

Ezz Al-Arab is best known to normals as the most-visible Egyptian banker onX, where he regularly addresses customer complaints and jousts with critics. Ezz Al-Arab kicked over an ant hill when he recently warned that “a small spark in the non-bank financial sector could shake the entire economy,” setting off a brouhaha that roared to life on social media and the nation’s still-influential nighttime talk shows.

The central bank had handed down in April measures to tighten how commercial banks finance the NBFI industry, and parliament has since joined the fray, with lawmakers demanding hearings on the “unregulated expansion” of consumer finance firms. After Ezz Al-Arab’s remarks, the Financial Regulatory Authority moved to publicly name NBFI violators, setting up a registry of individuals and companies in breach of regulations and threatening to pull licenses.

Pundits are divided about the central bank’s motivations — whether it’s just trying to tamp-down risk, or whether it’s also aiming to curtail inflation.

The regulatory friction could be read as a feature of a maturing market. “This sector has grown significantly over the last five years. The volume of transactions and issuances we witnessed was massive, with a broader range of asset classes being securitized. The recent rate-cutting cycle has been a positive driver for debt capital markets,” Raouf says. “As inflation has moderated, lower interest rates have improved financing conditions for issuers while allowing investors to lock in attractive yields, supporting strong demand for debt instruments.”

So, where do Saudi and the UAE stand?

Saudi is building the regulatory base

Tadawul’s draft framework is about one thing: letting investors take risk on a defined asset pool rather than the issuer — which Fitch’s Bashar Al Natoor calls the precondition for a genuine asset-backed sukuk market. It also builds on last year’s overhaul of special purpose vehicles by separating the framework regulating securitization SPVs from other debt issuances.

Why now? As the Kingdom recalibrates its gigaproject ambitions and trims public spending, securitization could help local banks free up liquidity for other purposes, and the need is perhaps most acute in the mortgage industry. (There’s no meaningful market for mortgage-backed securities in Egypt — the country’s sky-high interest rates have choked the mortgage market in its crib.)

“The scale of [Saudi’s] ambition will require significant foreign funding, and securitization is a sensible strategic tool that they seem to have recognized,” Chris Taylor, CEO of UAE consumer lender Deem Finance, tells us.

The ball is rolling now: The PIF’s Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company has acquired two pools of mortgages worth SAR 10 bn from AlRajhi Bank. But most Saudi transactions are currently taking place almost entirely through private placements. The next step is to expand the securitization market to allow the securities to be traded on Tadawul

The UAE is doing deals in the gaps

There’s a wrinkle in the UAE: Its statutory true-sale framework doesn’t cover private placements, which account for most of the market activity. The country’s 2023 securitization rules formally recognize the true-sale framework, but only for listed transactions. Private placements, which make up the bulk of the market currently, fall outside it and lean on the 2021 Factoring Law and deal documentation instead.

SOUND SMART-The true-sale concept means the receivables have legally and irrevocably left the originator’s balance sheet — sold outright to the SPV, not pledged as collateral. If the lender later goes bust, its creditors can’t claw the assets back and bondholders keep getting paid from the pool. Agreements are negotiated on a case-by-case basis, and each needs approval from the Central Bank of the UAE.

True sale — getting the assets off the originator’s balance sheet — is key. The pool of future payments on the receivables needs to be out of the reach of creditors if the company goes belly-up. That’s what lets an investor price the paper on the collection data in the pool rather than the issuer’s creditworthiness — and it’s why the due diligence on a securitization is brutal.

Deem’s UDS 400 mn deal with JPMorgan late last year shows how it’s done right now: Deem bundled credit cards, personal loans, and SME loans into a single SPV — a multi-asset structure designed to give one of the UAE’s first deals enough scale and flexibility. JPMorgan bought the issuance after the deal (formally a senior revolving facility) got central bank approval. “We have sold the assets into an SPV, so it is a true sale. There is no recourse for those assets back to Deem,” Taylor tells us. The structure is a classic waterfall: JPMorgan holds the senior tranche and gets repaid first, and Deem retains the junior tranche. “You create access to an evergreen funding structure that eliminates the mismatch between your assets and liabilities. Instead of borrowing money, you are effectively selling the asset,” Taylor explains.

“The level of diligence that JPMorgan went through with us was absolutely intense,” Taylor says.

Deem isn’t alone. Quantix, a unit of AstraTech, raised USD 500 mn in an asset-backed securitization last year, while Beehive raised AED 500 mn in structured finance from Goldman Sachs and Magellan Capital.

Raouf notes that the UAE’s regulations are “very similar to the Egyptian securitization framework” with true-sale assignment, the SPV structure, and off-balance-sheet treatment. The need to go to the central bank and get approvals on a case-by-case basis when you’re doing a private placement is a significant obstacle — and one industry players we spoke with hope changes soon.

Domestic banks are nowhere to be seen: Bulge bracket banks including Citi, Goldman, and JPM account for the lion’s share of the deals we reviewed for this story, with domestic banks sitting on the sidelines — for now. Deem’s Taylor believes that, too, could soon change. The key here is that global majors aren’t going to look at smaller transactions that might be worthwhile for domestic banks to pick up. A JPMorgan “isn’t going to do a USD 50 mn deal; it is simply not big enough to interest them,” Taylor says. But the domestic banks won’t bother if the regulatory burden isn’t made clearer — and less costly to satisfy.

Private now, public later?

So far, Saudi and the UAE are mostly private-placement markets, but for different reasons. In the UAE, the investor base is too shallow for public deals — “we will likely need to see double-digit numbers of private deals first,” Taylor says.

In Egypt, bonds are listed on the EGX but placed privately, and the holders don’t trade — they act as a buy-and-hold base, with the banks attracted to fixed, fully-visible returns. The secondary market is going to pick up, Raouf argues, only “as the investor base expands and issuance volumes grow.”

So, what’s next? Tadawul’s consultation closes 14 June, but it could be months before we see the final framework, let alone a test issuance. In the UAE, the trigger will be new executive regulations that expand the rules to allow private placements.

Perhaps the most interesting signal, though, comes from Taylor, who says that two domestic banks have kicked the tires on existing deals — and one of them has gone so far as to hire a team of specialists. He thinks it likely we’ll see them transact “fairly soon.”

Asset classes to watch in the Gulf: BNPL, earned-wage access, and car finance now that movable-asset security rules are clearer — with SME lending lagging given the challenging data aspect, Taylor says.

And in Egypt? Pundits have been openly questioning for years whether North Africa’s largest market is in the midst of a consumer finance bubble, and you can practically hear the bears salivating at the prospects that one of the more cowboy NBFI lenders goes bust as the FRA and central bank continue their clampdown. That aside, the big maturity tests are future-flow securitization (think: telecom receivables or tuition fees) and whether a real secondary market ever develops out of the buy-and-hold base.

3

AI + INNOVATION

Too big to fail?

The largest IPO in history priced overnight with the Gulf’s sovereign funds well-represented in the order book — and AI investments are at or near the top of each of their target lists for the rest of this year even as analysts and pundits look for signs of a pullback.

UP FIRST: SpaceX has priced the largest IPO in history. Elon Musk’s AI-and-spaceflight company raised USD 75 bn at a fixed USD 135 a share, more than doubling Aramco’s USD 29.4 bn record from 2019, Reuters reports. That values the company at nearly USD 1.8 tn — and makes Musk the world’s first trillionaire. Shares are set to start trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX today and analysts expect a debut pop of at least 10%. Underwriters hold an over-allotment option on a further 83.3 mn shares that would take the raise to USD 86 bn if exercised in full.

The book was enormous: Orders had topped USD 250 bn by early this week — approaching four times the shares on offer — and retail investors alone put in some USD 100 bn against a 30% retail carve-out, triple or more what’s typical. The institutional offering was c. 2x oversubscribed, with several investors asking for positions worth USD 10 bn or more, Bloomberg reports.

Saudi Arabia’s PIF placed an order of USD 1-5 bn, the Kuwait Investment Authority matched it, and the Qatar Investment Authority also made a big order, Bloomberg notes. As we noted last week, the Kingdom already owns a piece of SpaceX two ways: AI champion Humain saw its xAI stake converted into SpaceX shares when the two Musk companies merged, a holding that could be worth up to USD 4 bn. PIF also owns 17% of Kingdom Holding, which carries a direct 0.34% SpaceX stake worth some USD 5.7 bn.

What’s next: OpenAI and Anthropic have both filed to list and pundits think the three big AI IPOs could add a combined USD 3.6 tn to US exchanges. Whether today’s debut sets up the Gulf’s second and third AI cashouts is the question we’ll see answered this fall. OpenAI has signaled it is tepid about its listing, but Anthropic is pushing hard for the fall window.

Gulf sovereign funds seem to have plenty more appetite for AI even amid speculation they may have to trim holdings outside the region to shore up investments under stress at home.

Fitch has turned bearish on the region’s sovereigns. The ratings agency flipped its 2026 sovereign outlook to “deteriorating” from neutral in a mid-year outlook report shared with EnterpriseAM, and the Gulf is taking the hardest hit — its ratings watch has turned negative on every sovereign in the region.

The USD 580 bn Qatar Investment Authority hasn’t stopped writing tickets, though: It deployed about USD 1.2 bn a month through May, 14% below its 2025 pace but more than triple its 2024 average of USD 376 mn a month, Bloomberg reports in a piece we think is a must-read this morning. Execs say its USD 20 bn AI venture with Brookfield remains on track.

And the Kuwait Investment Agency is anchoring a USD 10 bn AI infrastructure venture, joining Nvidia, KKR, and US power producer Vistra to launch Helix Digital Infrastructure with more than USD 10 bn in long-duration capital commitments and former AWS CEO Adam Selipsky at the helm. KIA has put about USD 9 bn into AI and digital over the past five years and is an anchor in Brookfield’s AI infrastructure fund.

PLUS: Mubadala isn’t taking its foot off the pedal. CEO Khaldoon Al Mubarak said earlierthis year that the USD 330 bn fund will be deploying more in both AI and robotics themes alongside healthcare, life sciences, and biotech — all sectors analysts think will be positively impacted by AI.

The war hasn’t dampened its ambitions: Just this week, its Abu Dhabi Investment Council unit is working with local banks on a total return swap facility that would build USD 15 bn of exposure to global hedge funds, according ot Bloomberg. Its private equity arm has done 16 deals in the past three months and can commit as much as USD 2 bn to a single transaction, its co-CEOs told the business information service in their first interview since taking charge in 2024. Mubadala also co-led a CAD 130 mn series E for Canadian challenger bank Koho at a CAD 1.33 bn valuation.

4

MARKETS + DEALS

The Last Dance

The last big IPO still in the MENA+ market is pushing ahead as Oman signalled it’s taking fertilizer champion Oman India Fertiliser Company (Omifco) public even after Banque du Caire and Mutlaq Al-Ghowairi delayed to fall.

Shareholders in the Oman-India JV behind the Sur fertilizer complex are looking to raise as much as USD 678 mn from the sale of 25% of Omifco on the Muscat Stock Exchange, according to a statement (pdf) , with the order book set to open this month and trading to begin on 8 July. The offer is all secondary, with all proceeds going to existing shareholders.

Omifco is marketing itself as a dividend play, saying it expects to pay a divvy worth OMR 71.2 mn (c. USD 185 mn) for FY 2026 in two equal installments in September 2026 and April 2027, then 90% of net profits in 2027-2028 or 3% annual growth on the 2026 payout, whichever is higher.

Why it matters: With Banque du Caire pushing its roadshow to September-October and Saudi Arabia’s Mutlaq Al-Ghowairi postponing its listing, Omifco is the last big regional listing still on the summer calendar. Qalaa Holding also joined the wait-for-September club this week, pushing the IPO of its ports arm, National Ports Management, to September from a June-July window and trimming its follow-on pipeline to three subsidiary floats from five.

In brighter news: ADX expects two to three dual listings before year-end, with tech and healthcare names working through home-market approvals — Hong Kong-listed biotech Insilico Medicine is among those previously flagged for a secondary Abu Dhabi offering. ]


File the week’s biggest “M&A” headline under “restructuring.” Abu Dhabi’s L’imad now holds more than 98% of utility Taqa after AD Power, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary, took over 2PointZero‘s entire 7.29% stake, worth AED 21.5 bn at Wednesday’s close by our math. (Disclosures here, here, and here.) This is Abu Dhabi consolidating Abu Dhabi: L’imad has already folded in ADQ and Cyvn this year, while 2PointZero — fresh from its three-way merger with Multiply and Ghitha — says the proceeds shore up its balance sheet and fund deals across energy, mining, consumer, food, and packaging.

In other M&A news:

  • Masdar is buying a 49.99% slice of a EUR 849 mn Spanish renewables portfolio from Repsol. It will pushes Masdar’s Iberian assets to 4.1 GW on top of the EUR 1.2 bn Saeta takeover and its Endesa solar buy-in, making the emirate one of Europe’s largest clean-power owners;
  • Aster DM Healthcare took a majority stake in Saudi Arabia’s ProCare Hospital through a JV with Saleh Al Rahji & Partners. Worth watching as it reportedly eyes a dual Tadawul-UAE listing ;
  • BlueFive Capital bought 49% of LeasePlan Emirates from France’s Ayvens through its Reef PE Fund I, leaving Mubadala-owned Solutions+ at 51%.


It’s not all doom-and-gloom in Dubai real estate: Emaar is preparing an AED 200 bn (USD 55 bn) “city within a city” masterplan in Dubai for nearly 150k residents and Dubai logged USD 68.61 bn in 1Q real estate transactions with foreign investment up 26%. Meanwhile, AHS Properties bought the Shangri-La Dubai for AED 1.1 bn (USD 300 mn) — it’s a 430floor hotel-offices-and-residences tower on the main Sheikh Zayed Road thoroughfare. AHS founder and CEO Abbas Sajwani says he’ll take the lid off an AED 25 bn mixed-use project in 3Q.


The EBRD wants to invest EUR 7.5 bn (c. EGP 450 bn) into Egypt over five years — and it’s got particularappetite for real estate players who build green, with at least half the bank’s annual spend mandated to its Green Economy Transition (pdf). For Egyptian corporates, an Edge or Leed stamp could unlock cheaper long-term finance as the EGP 1.3 bn Ibnsina facility and a USD 50 mn MSME package via NBK showed.

Morocco’s National Office of Electricity and Drinking Water (ONEE) lined up a EUR 250 mn (c. MAD 2.75 bn) program with EBRD to modernize the country’s drinking-water infrastructure, to be rolled out in two phases.


Egypt is signaling it can live without a new IMF program. No talks are underway on a successor to the USD 8 bn extended fund facility that expires in December, with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly saying Egypt sees no need for a new program.


WATCH THIS SPACE- UAE state defense champion Edge is formalizing its European push under Paris-headquartered Edge Europe, with an engineering and manufacturing hub in Bordeaux, according to a press release. A planned controlling stake in Italy’s CMD and a USD 1.5 bn manufacturing pipeline with Spain’s EM&E points to a transaction in the offing…

Market Snapshot

Tadawul 0.3% • ADX -0.3% • DFM -0.4% • EGX30 -0.9%

Brent USD 89.40 / bbl • Gold USD 4,226 / oz • USD / SAR 3.75 • USD / EGP 51.9

5

WAR WATCH

Schrodinger’s peace deal

The US held off on the fresh round of attacks it had threatened to launch against Iran after reportedly reaching a peace deal, although Iran denies that the two sides have reached an agreement. “We have a deal that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,” US President Donald Trump told reporters yesterday, claiming that the agreement will be signed within days. Trump also claims that “all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others” have agreed to the deal.

Iran didn’t quite get the memo: Tehran denies having reached a final agreement, as its Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Tehran has “red lines” it wouldn’t compromise on, even as large portions of the agreement were finalized.

The alleged peace agreement comes as the UAE and Iran reportedly met face-to-face for the first time since the war broke out, as both countries look to protect their economic interests. The meeting is a shift from Abu Dhabi’s previous hawkish position against Iran and towards a diplomatic path to resolving the tensions. The UAE has borne the brunt of Iran’s attacks in the region since the end of February, but was ostensibly absent from the targets in the latest wave of strikes earlier this week.

Amid the back-and-forth on a peace deal that may or may not exist in full, three LNG tankers appear to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. The tankers, two of which are controlled by QatarEnergy and one of which belongs to Adnoc, are Asia-bound.

6

TRADE

Restored lifeline

Saudi Arabia lifted a ban on Lebanese imports following directives from Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah. The decision came in response to requests from Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and is expected to help revive the Lebanese economy and “support a wide range of Lebanese producers and exporters,” according to a statement from the Lebanese side.

The ban — first imposed in 2021 over illicit substances smuggled through legitimate cargo — severed what had once been one of Beirut’s most lucrative export channels. Saudi Arabia was routinely Lebanon’s second- or third-largest export market, absorbing 8-8.5% of total shipments, or USD 243-246 mn between 2017-2019, Byblos Bank Chief Economist Nassib Ghobril tells EnterpriseAM.

Saudi Arabia is also key for Lebanon’s exports because it served as a transit corridor for Lebanese goods bound for the rest of the Gulf. When the ban took hold, exports slowed significantly in 2022 before fundamentally stopping altogether by 2023, Ghobril says. In 2025, with zero Saudi trade, Lebanon’s trade deficit ballooned to nearly USD 17 bn — a devastating figure for an economy already starved for hard currency.

Manufacturers in Lebanon survived the export winter in part by relocating to Oman, the UAE, or Egypt — if they could afford to do so — and re-emerge as local firms shipping into Saudi Arabia under non-Lebanese flags. But even if the people behind these exports were Lebanese, the goods were exports erased from Lebanon’s ledger and that capacity is now being counted under other countries’ data. Smaller exporters and farmers, however, were unable to make that jump due to financial and practical constraints and ultimately absorbed the full blow.

Now, with the export reopening, Lebanese producers are ready to jump back into Saudi-bound exports, Ghobril says. Years of crisis have driven down local production costs (even if they’ve risen in recent weeks due to war-related oil price spikes), while agricultural output, including apples and poultry, has swung into surplus. This resumption is what Ghobril calls a “positive shock” that will help incrementally narrow the country’s trade deficit and pull FX into a banking system still reeling from collapse and struggling to find the money to finance its deposit recovery plans.

7

EARNINGS WATCH

Empty hubs

MENA airlines will be the world’s only major market in the red this year. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects the region’s carriers will swing to a collective USD 4.3 bn loss in 2026 — the worst-hit globally — on airspace closures and lost passenger volumes through March and April. Passenger demand is set to fall 11.4%, while capacity is expected to contract 4.4%.

Jet fuel adds to the pain: IATA assumes Brent crude rates will average USD 95 per barrel, whereas jet fuel is expected to be at USD 152 per barrel in 2026 — about 70% higher than 2025. Jet fuel prices are a source of pressure for the entire global industry, but GCC airspace closures are what set the region apart.

The dependency that hurts: Gulf carriers depend heavily on east-west transfer flows through Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, which makes lost connectivity have an outsized impact on earnings. The disruptions opened a near-term opening for rivals like Turkish Airlines and Singapore Airlines on long-haul routes linking Asia and Europe, we previously reported.

Recovery talks look too early to call: Etihad CEO Antonoaldo Neves recently said the Abu Dhabi-based carrier is aiming to restore pre-war flying levels plus adding an 8% y-o-y of extra capacity by 15 June. His comments came against the backdrop of a fragile ceasefire that has since seen active US-Iran combat return.

In other aviation news

Riyadh Air’s maiden flight landed in London on Wednesday evening, launching the country’s second national airline after Saudia after months of delays primarily due to aircraft delivery setbacks from Boeing. The PIF-backed airline is expected to have a total of eight aircraft in its fleet by the end of next month, CEO Tony Douglas said. Riyadh Air is currently operating flights to six cities, with plans to reach 22 cities by next March.

8

INVESTMENT WATCH

Green lights

Oman attracted more than USD 9 bn in new investment commitments this week, as its Duqm special economic zone drew USD 7.5 bn across 10 deals and Future Fund Oman earmarked a further USD 1.5 bn for priority sectors.

The bulk of that headline figure came from the Duqm special economic zone, where the Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and Free Zones (Opaz) signed 10 agreements worth nearly OMR 3 bn (USD 7.5 bn) combined. Green energy and electric vehicles were the primary focus of these agreements, led by the OMR 1.6 bn expansion of Acme’s green hydrogen project and stretching into power generation, EV battery materials, and tourism. The capital came from abroad as much as at home, with investors from China, India, South Korea, the Philippines, Germany and Egypt joining local players.

Days earlier, Future Fund Oman (FFO), owned by the Oman Investment Authority, announced a OMR 570 mn (USD 1.5 bn) package targeting renewable energy, industry and technology, healthcare, tourism, and food security. Seven direct projects and a portfolio of strategic schemes will absorb 90% of the capital, with the remainder earmarked for SMEs and startups.

9

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Tab closed

A clean slate

Egypt’s Oil Ministry fully cleared its outstanding arrears to international oil companies, which peaked at USD 6.1 bn accrued since June 2024, according to a statement (watch, runtime: 05:57). The payment fulfills a government promise to the energy sector aimed at helping reverse years of declining domestic production.

Why it matters: Clearing the backlog was the linchpin of the government’s investor-confidence strategy. Combined with sweeter commercial terms, settling the debts has already unlocked a USD 19 bn investment pledge from global energy majors, which sets the state up to hit its USD 6.2 bn sector FDI target next fiscal year. However, even with capital flowing back in, offshore drilling and infrastructure development take years, meaning a significant rebound in domestic output won’t happen overnight.

Around the strait

Kuwait is shipping crude to Asia from outside Hormuz. At least 4 mn barrels of medium-sour Kuwait Export Crude are being marketed to refiners in China and South Korea with the cargoes already positioned outside the strait for prompt delivery, Bloomberg reports, citing traders familiar with the matter. These are the first spot offers to Asia since the regional conflict began.

Tanker activity around Kuwait’s export system is picking up. VLCCs Al Riqqa and Dar Salwa were last tracked loading at Mina Al Ahmadi in late May and early June before their AIS signals stopped transmitting. Their current locations remain unknown, but the timing suggests Kuwait may be building a buffer of export barrels beyond the strait to preserve access to Asian buyers.

Kuwait Petroleum is in discussions with Saudi Arabia and the UAE about expanding their existing pipeline systems to accommodate Kuwaiti crude exports, CEO Sheikh Nawaf Al Sabah said. No timeline was provided, and the stage of the discussions remains unclear.

10

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING

Liquidity rich, but refinancing preferred

Watch this space

DP World is reassuring bond investors as it lines up refinancing for USD 2.6 bn in debt maturing this year. The company has been meeting creditors to keep market options open despite the war, Bloomberg reports. It likely has the cash to repay outright but would rather tap the market. Fitch expects DP World to settle maturities through a mix of capital markets and liquidity.


ConocoPhillips could become the first major oil company to sign a definitive exploration agreement in post-Assad Syria. The Syrian Petroleum Corporation is set to ink the onshore exploration and development agreement in the coming days, Energy Minister Mohammad Al Bashir tells the Arab press. The agreement would formalize an MoU the US company signed last November.

This is distinct from the MoU ConocoPhillips signed last month to explore offshore exploration in Block 3, alongside TotalEnergy and QatarEnergy. Other IOCs reviewing possible offshore exploration include Chevron and the Qatar-based Power International Holding.

Sign of the times

LIV Golf’s CEO can’t confirm PIF funding will continue through the rest of the 2026 season. Scott O’Neil told CNBC the league is proceeding on the basis of the PIF’s public commitment to do so, Reuters reports. This comes days after reports emerged that the Saudi sovereign wealth fund may not cover the rest of the season.

Seeking new investors: With the PIF pulling the plug last month on LIV after the 2026 season ends and former LIV chairman Yasir Al Rumayyan exiting, LIV is reportedly looking for USD 250-350 mn from new backers to support a planned LIV 2.0 strategy.

Final events in question: O’Neil also declined to confirm LIV’s last four tournaments of the season — in England, New Jersey, Indianapolis, and Michigan — will go ahead. LIV Golf Louisiana was recently postponed, leaving a six-week gap in the schedule before play resumes in the UK in late July.


June 2026

10–14 June — Syria Buildex International Construction Exhibition. Syria

16-17 June — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

21-24 June — Afreximbank Annual Meetings. Egypt

July 2026

2 July — Parliamentary elections. Algeria

5 July — Independence Day (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

9 July — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

14 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

23 July — Revolution Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

25 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Tunisia

28-29 July — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

30 July — Throne Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

August 2026

13 Aug — Women’s National Day. Tunisia

20 Aug — Revolution of the King and the People Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

20 Aug — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

21 Aug — Youth Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

25 Aug — Prophet’s Birthday (public holiday, markets closed) — TBD. Region-wide

31 Aug-3 Sep — LEAP technology conference. Saudi Arabia

September 2026

7-9 Sep — AIM Congress. UAE

15-16 Sep — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

15 SepIMF’s eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement. Egypt

16-17 Sep — Middle East Banking Innovation Summit. UAE

23 Sep — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Saudi Arabia

24 Sep — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

30 Sep-3 Oct — Cityscape Egypt 2026. Egypt

October 2026

3 Oct — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

6 Oct — Armed Forces Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

15 Oct — GCC Made in the Gulf Forum + Exhibition. TBD

25 Oct — Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Libya

25-27 Oct — World Investment Forum 2026. Qatar

26-29 Oct — Future Investment Initiative. Saudi Arabia

27-28 Oct — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

29 Oct — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

November 2026

1 Nov — Revolution Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

2 Nov — Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition + Conference (ADIPEC) opens (through 5 Nov). UAE

6 Nov — Green March Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

16 Nov — Cityscape Global begins (through 19 Nov). Saudi Arabia

December 2026

17 Dec — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

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