Pharaoh’s gold

1

OPENING NOTE

It’s a mining-heavy Monday morning

Good morning, friends. We’ve got lots of mining news for you this morning — setting up a series of stories over the coming months that go deep into what we think is becoming one of the most interesting sectors in MENA+.

You already know that we think infrastructure, AI, and defense will be big investment themes across the region in the coming decade as players from the Gulf to Egypt and beyond absorb lessons from the (still simmering) US-Iran war.

All three need minerals and metals — and the imperative to own the full supply chain has never been clearer thanks to the war. Whether you’re building a data center, producing EVs and drones, or building out energy infrastructure (green or conventional), companies in the Big Three industries need copper, gold, critical minerals, and more. All of them are found on the Arabian-Nubian Shield, which spans from Egypt and Sudan to Saudi and Yemen — it’s the last real frontier in the global mining industry.

We went twice to Egypt’s Eastern Desert for a deep dive into the economics of mining on the shield with the folks at Ankh Resources, a company at the forefront of a drive to bring back to life the industry that transformed Pharaonic Egypt into the world’s gold superpower.

Mining is also a big part of Canada’s re-engagement with the Arab world under pro-business Prime Minister Mark Carney. Ottawa may not yet have that pipeline of bankable, “shovel-ready” projects it promised the UAE, but its companies are world leaders in mining — and they’ve inked a series of interesting agreements in Saudi Arabia.

It’s a sea change for Canada, whose previous prime minister torched relations with both the UAE and Saudi — ties that Carney is bringing to new life as Canada looks to build trade and investment partnerships that sidestep the United States, its largest (and, recently, most protectionist) historical partner. –Patrick

2

THE LEDE

Inside the Eastern Desert concession testing Egypt’s mining ambitions

The Pharaohs did it. So did the Romans. Walk through parts of the Eastern Desert, and the evidence stares you in the face if you know what to look for: Cut marks, sometimes accompanied by soot, that mark the location of artisanal mines. Fly over the vast, rock-and-sand expanse, and you can literally map out the contours of the ancient work sites that fuelled the gold economy in Egypt from the predynastic settlements of the fourth millennium BCE through the last of the pharaohs.

Three thousand years of digging made gold the foundation of pharaonic wealth and an instrument of Egyptian power abroad that had, by the New Kingdom (1550-1070 BCE), made the kingdom the gold superpower of the late Bronze Age. Foreign kings wrote the pharaoh complaining that gold was as plentiful in Egypt as dust. Little wonder, then, that the world’s oldest-known geological map was drawn under Ramesses IV some time around 1150 BCE.

With the passage of time, the veins the pharaohs worked were abandoned, not exhausted — and the Sisi administration is today rolling out the welcome made for mining companies both foreign and domestic. On offer: A new regulatory and business environment for mining that some industry players tell us meets or exceeds global norms. The hope: That the reforms will draw big and small players alike to high-stakes exploration.

BY THE NUMBERS- The government hopes to launch an international tender for gold and associated minerals across more than 210 blocks in the Eastern Desert this year — its first bid round in more than four years. It follows fresh changes to the executive regulations of the Mineral Resources Law, approved by Cabinet in April, and amendments to the mining investment law that cut the state’s minimum stake in projects from 25% to 10%.

Lower rents, faster approvals, a smaller state cut, a new aerial survey of the desert — all of it is designed to turn the nation’s solitary commercial-scale gold mine, known as Sukari, into a world-class multi-metal industry that it hopes will account for as much as 6% of GDP by the early 2030s.

To see what that looks like on the ground, we drove into the Eastern Desert near Ras Ghareb to Wadi Dara, a copper-and-gold concession held by Ankh Resources — a privately held junior explorer founded in 2021 by two veterans of Egypt’s mining and venture capital sectors. We walked the ground with the company’s geologists and investors, and sat down with its leadership: Non-executive chair Timothy Livesey, consulting geologist Nick Tate, co-founders Tamer Azer and Mostafa Talaat, and exploration chief Abdelhalim Assran. Ankh aims to prove that Wadi Dara could be home to Egypt’s first globally significant copper-gold mine in modern times.

SOUND SMART- The copper angle makes Wadi Dara extra-interesting. A copper-gold mine works a deposit in which gold and copper occur together in the same orebody and are recovered at the same time. The copper angle at Wadi Dara is particularly interesting: It’s one of the keys to our digital and green economies. The AI buildout runs on copper — its in the GPUs, busways, power-distribution units, transformers, and liquid-cooling cold plates inside the data centers. It’s the key link from the solar and wind farms powering them and distributes electricity to the racks and racks of servers that “run” Claude, and Gemini, and ChatGPT. Outside data centers, EVs need 2-4x the copper of a petrol-powered car — and the charging infrastructure they need demands more copper still.

Juniors like Ankh will be critical to any Egyptian mining boom. “It’s great to have large multinational companies operating mines in your country, but they only come in on the back of the work that’s done by the juniors,” Livesey — a UK-trained geologist whose CV runs through Anglo American, Barrick, and the Reko Diq project in Pakistan — tells us.

Juniors make some 60% of the world’s mineral discoveries. They raise equity as they go, prove (or kill) targets, and typically aim to sell the project to a major — or partner with one on production. “Egypt [needs] juniors coming in, failing fast, moving through these licenses, testing them, evaluating them, moving on to the next one — because not every license will deliver a deposit,” Livesey says. The fail-fast mantra isn’t defeatism: A junior burns investors’ money every day it holds ground, so a dead target should be dropped, not nursed for five years.

Every rung on the exploration ladder costs more than the last. The sequence Ankh walked us through runs like this: First, you need to prove something is there (mapping, trenching, surface geochemistry). Next comes drilling to show mineralization continues at depth and along strike. The exploration company needs to drill tighter and deeper to build a resource you can put a number on. Only then can you produce a feasibility study showing how you’ll mine it and what you’ll earn — that’s what finally leads to a production permit or a sale.

Positive results don’t let you coast, but demand you to spend more, because each stage needs to be de-risked before capital goes into the next. In a promising program, the budget can double year-on-year, which is why fundraising never stops. Ankh’s holes at Wadi Dara now average around 500 meters, and the company added a geophysics phase before committing to deeper, costlier drilling — it wants the subsurface picture first.

How geology turns into finance: International reporting codes like the Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC) sort a deposit into inferred, indicated, and measured resources by ascending confidence. A tighter the drill grid allows the company to talk about their site with more confidence, making the data about the site (a junior’s core proprietary asset at this stage) all the more valuable. Ankh’s team says an inferred asset is worth roughly a third of a proven one on the books.

What the maiden program shows at Wadi Dara: Ankh drilled 17 diamond-core holes totaling 6.4 km in one area at their site. Fourteen of those hit what a third-party formal reviewer defined as “significant” gold and / or copper. By current current industry standards, that means at least 0.5 grams of gold per ton of rock; for copper, the comparable figure is 0.33% per ton. Ankh’s early results show the mineralized zone runs at least 600 meters wide — and, crucially, they haven’t found its edges yet — it keeps going in both directions and downward, with the deepest hole showing mineralization at 527 meters below the surface. Results were reported under the JORC Code, the international standard for disclosing drill results, and signed off by independent qualified geologists.

That’s the first-pass or prospective drilling: Holes spaced far apart, several aimed deliberately at the edges of the system rather than its sweet spots, which is why 14 of 17 counts as encouraging. Even two misses did useful work, drilled where surface data said the zone should continue at depth, but found nothing. That’s the puzzle of the Eastern Desert’s ancient geology — a fault can shift a mineralized zone a few meters or several kilometers, and the job is to work out which way before investing into further drilling.

Ultimately, exploration companies are data collection companies, so there’s more drilling to be done: What’s been drilled covers a small fraction of the roughly 4 km stretch where surface work suggests mineralization. Ankh has yet to explore an entire second target — and the valley floor between the two could itself hold plenty of gold and copper.

Back to money — and discipline. Phase two exploration will see Ankh’s team chasing the edges of the first area it’s exploration (they’re calling it “Area A”), drilling the untouched Area B and the valley, and — most important and most expensive — drilling between existing holes to increase the accuracy of the data by reducing the space between drill holes from 200 m to 100m then to 50 and 25. A tighter grid is what turns “we think there’s a deposit here” into a formal resource estimate that bank or buyer will find attractive; accuracy and confidence get a boost with every hole drilled.

The plan is flexible by design: Assran, the lead geologist, is a legend in the regional industry. He and his team redraw their drilling plan as each batch of lab results returns because a rigid plan wastes meters, and meters are money. Ankh will test the valley floor — loose material with no rock structure to read — with reverse-circulation (RC) drilling, which smashes rock into chips for chemistry, saving the slower, pricier diamond core for ground where reading the rock pays. Drilling cores preserves the rock’s structure and lets geologists model the ore body in three dimensions — as one geologist puts it, core is the DNA test, RC is the blood panel.

The elephant in the room for original investors is dilution: They need to raise capital over and over to keep exploration going. Existing investors are diluted with every raise (unless they participate in the round) and the cost of exploration often rises with subsequent phases. Asked whether shareholders push back on raises, Talaat, Ankh’s CEO and one of its co-founders, says the strategy is to find a “sweet spot” between dilution and valuation. It’s a bargain that’s re-examined every year: “Don’t rush to take big money early just because it’s offered — let drill results re-rate the company first, then raise,” he says.

Livesey likens it to a snowball rolling down hill: Early success brings investors who funds drilling that brings more success — and it only works if good (externally validated) results keep coming.

Who’s backing Ankh? Early on, it was primarily Egyptian angel investors with no mining background — their due diligence, Talaat says, was on the people rather than the rocks. Now, investors include family offices inside and outside Egypt, individual mining specialists, and institutional money listed on the London Stock Exchange.

The competition for capital in mining is global: Investors in the industry can put their money anywhere in the world, Livesey notes — what they’re buying is a team spending it wisely to de-risk.

Wadi Dara is at a stage known as “early advanced” exploration — past proof of concept and now building what the industry calls a “resource.” That’s a standard industry definition that means there’s a “reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction.” One advantage the team kept coming back to on two visits earlier this summer is that the site was never torn up by artisanal mining, so the surface indicators that guide drill targeting are intact. An on-site storage facility they call the “core yard” preserves every sample Ankh has drilled since day one, split, logged, and stored so any doubter (or acquirer) can re-assay it. You can think of it as a 3D map of the site you can physically touch.

The timeline from here is 18-24 months of expanded drilling to define a maiden resource. Feasibility, the gateway to a production permit, is “at least” three to four years out, results permitting, one company official tells us. Egypt’s licensing fits that clock, as Talaat describes it: Exploration contracts run six years with a two-year technical extension available for large discoveries, renewable two years at a time with ministry approval for companies meeting their obligations.

How easy is it to convince investors to pile cash into Ankh? Investors with mining backgrounds get the geology fast, Talaat says. What they really have questions about is the jurisdiction — Egypt. How stable is the mining act? Has an operating company ever been “interrupted?” Are other investors showing up?

Egypt’s best exhibit is Sukari, which has run through three revolutions untouched — the strongest contract-sanctity signal a frontier jurisdiction can send, despite a rocky start in the late 1990s and 2000s before it turned productive.

The reform record backs it: The 2014 Mineral Resources Law was amened in 2019, and the 2020 executive regulations scrapped mandatory profit-sharing JVs and capped royalties at 20% — key changes that brought Egyptian law into step with global mining-industry norms. More changes earlier this year added portal-based applications and assay-lab licensing. Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Karim Badawi has told parliament mining contributes around 0.5% of GDP today and wants to see that hit 6% by 2030. And the ministry has taken the show on the road, with conferences, investor events, and a national airborne survey, the country’s first in four decades.

The cautionary tale is from Laos. Nick Tate — an Australian geologist consulting for Ankh who has pop-star status in the field — spent 15 years there during what looked like a mining boom built on newly enacted legislation and hungry juniors. Then the government froze licensing, redrafted the law with outside help, and botched the implementation. (Tate is credited with the reinterpretations that expanded proven copper-gold reserves at the Sepon mine, now one of Asia’s biggest.)

The killer, he told us, was undermining what’s called the “right to mine” — the principle that an explorer who follows the rules and finds a deposit is guaranteed the license to mine it. “It’s the equivalent of a lottery ticket,” he says. “There's an implicit government guarantee that should those numbers come up, you will be paid.” Laos rewrote the terms and conditions on the back of the ticket to say “we’ll think about it,” and juniors and majors alike walked away. The mines that existed are winding down with nothing in the pipeline behind them, and public debt hit roughly 128% of GDP as the currency collapsed.

Egypt’s reforms moved decisively the opposite way, but Tate’s point is that the law on paper matters less than whether the state keeps honoring it for a decade or more. It’s a message that investors in every sector keep telling the Madbouly government: Policy stability is key.

Egypt has competition from Saudi Arabia, which sits on the same Arabian-Nubian Shield as Egypt. The ANS, as it’s known, is one of the last great frontiers in mining. Livesey rates Egypt an easier entry than Saudi Arabia is today: The Kingdom’s bid-round terms carry capital requirements that sit awkwardly with companies that, by design, have no revenue, And Egypt, Talaat adds, doesn’t nudge foreigners toward local partners the way Saudi’s system does in practice.

So what does the exit look like for Ankh? There are three doors, all requiring a code-compliant resource first. Sell the project or company to a major — the classic junior endgame, and why Ankh keeps its data room permanently ready. (When AngloGold Ashanti bought Sukari owner Centamin in November 2024, it walked into archives of preserved drill cores going back to day zero, the diligence asset that makes an acquisition underwriteable.) Ankh could also list on a stock exchange — it’s domiciled in Jersey precisely to keep a future IPO on the table. Or it could opt to build the mine itself, the longest and most capital-hungry road that opens to it only after it proves feasibility and obtains permits.

The prize looks something like Sukari: More than 5.9 mn oz produced since 2009, including roughly 500k ounces in 2025, and a workforce Talaat calls “the school of mines of Egypt” — the talent pool that powered one of Ankh’s founders and now exports geologists to Oman, Saudi, and as far as Australia and Canada. Tate’s Laos warning applies here too: when a country’s pipeline dies, the gold stays in the ground but the skills scatter — and they don't come back. Egypt’s recent regulatory reform addresses that warning.

What’s next? The 2Q 2026 bid round is the event to watch — both for who shows up (the 2020 and 2022 rounds drew majors, juniors, and local money, including Naguib Sawiris’ AKH Gold) and for the terms on offer. Ankh says it will look at expanding its footprint near its existing ground. Further out sits Sinai, geologically rich, but closed to precious-metals exploration until the state itself offers it. And watch the tender’s fine print for one thing above all, per the people we spoke with: Whether Egypt’s version of the lottery ticket keeps its guarantee printed on the back.

3

THE CORRIDOR

Saudi taps Canada for mining engineering expertise

Canada is buying into Saudi’s mineral ambition with the one thing the Kingdom can’t build fast enough in-house: engineering depth. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Jeddah last week — the first by a Canadian PM in 26 years — produced 13 agreements and MoUs that the two governments valued at over USD 1 bn, signed at the Saudi-Canadian Investment Forum last Thursday. The agreements span mining, health technology, infrastructure, and defense, but the big concentrations are in mining and infrastructure engineering — the area where Canadian capability can feed Saudi’s most capital-hungry ambitions.

Two agreements are key. The Royal Commission for Riyadh City is set to sign two contracts worth USD 440 mn, while a partnership between Maaden and Canada’s Hatch is valued at up to USD 700 mn. (Carney’s office hasn’t confirmed the total, with one account pegging it at “more than CAD 1 bn,” or roughly USD 710 mn.)

The Hatch deal is the one to watch. It makes the Canadian firm an engineering partner for Maaden’s planned USD 110 bn mining expansion — the strategic delivery partner Maaden named back in February. The Kingdom is building mining into the third pillar of its economy, and executing that needs project-delivery depth Maaden doesn’t have in-house at the scale a USD 110 bn program demands. Canada, squeezed by US tariffs, is has exactly that expertise and is looking for trade and other opportunities away from its neighbor to the south. Saudi Arabia now puts its untapped mineral wealth at some USD 2.5 tn.

It’s not the first time Canada has invested in Saudi rocks. Ivanhoe Electric and Maaden run a 50-50 exploration joint venture across roughly 50k sq km of the underexplored Arabian-Nubian Shield, hunting copper, gold, silver, and other metals. Ivanhoe is running exploration, while Maaden would take over any viable deposit for development. Two days before Carney landed in Saudi, the two companies extended their JV venture through July 2033.

Canadian engineering capabilities could help debottleneck the Saudi mining opportunity — but Ottawa has to debottleneck things in Canada, too, if it wants to tap significant Gulf interest in its economy. In Abu Dhabi last November, Carney came away with a UAE pledge to invest USD 50 bn in Canada — a headline number an order of magnitude larger than anything signed in Jeddah. Nine months on, none of it has been deployed. Canada’s Major Projects Office reportedly told the UAE in mid-June that it didn’t yet have ready investment opportunities for the Emirates. Carney faces pressure in the Gulf to get investable projects ready — a critical-minerals deal he announced on that same November trip still hasn’t materialized.

The difference comes down to who’s sending what, where. When Canada is the seller — engineering, project management, mining know-how — it plugs into Saudi programs that already exist and are already funded or fundable. When Canada is the destination, it has to supply bankable, permitted, shovel-ready projects. That’s the piece Ottawa doesn’t — yet — and industry groups quoted by the Financial Times say the delays are regulatory red tape (which Carney has promised to quash) and interprovincial trade barriers (a much longer, complicated political game).

BACKGROUND- The Saudi visit is as much a diplomatic repair as commerce. Riyadh cut off diplomatic ties with Ottawa and froze trade and investment in 2018 after a prominent Canadian cabinet member criticized the kingdom’s human rights record. Five years passed before the two began restoring relations in 2023. The rebuild is now moving fast — a Canadian trade delegation came away in January with roughly USD 600 mn in commercial partnership agreements. More than 30 Canadian companies worked the Jeddah forum, many circling the contracting pipeline around the 2034 World Cup and Riyadh's Expo 2030 build-out.

What’s next: Carney has invited Gulf investors to Toronto in September for an investment summit pitched as the venue to generate USD 1 tn over five years — if he can have those shovel-ready projects lined up. On the Saudi side, Carney’s office said the energy strand — LNG, hydrogen, and carbon capture — would be finalized next year, and a delegation of Canadian pension funds will return to the Kingdom in a few months in search of opportunities.

4

AI + Tech

US moves UAE into allies-only export tier, easing AI chip and military purchases

The UAE is going to get priority access to key US AI chips and technologies and will have an easier time buying military gear, satellites, civilian nuclear power tech, and some dual-use technologies from America. The catalyst: The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security shifted the UAE into what’s known as Country Group A:5 — territory otherwise reserved for close US allies, most of them Nato members, according to a Federal Register filing (pdf).

G42 and Core42 are named recipients for advanced computing gear and the US hyperscalers operating in the UAE (including Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI, and xAI) are covered. MGX, the big UAE investors in AI, has gotten a promise of “favorable review” on chip and server licenses.

There’s fine print: G42 and Core42’s license-free access automatically expires after 270 days unless there’s an extension and end-use controls stay on, meaning nothing can be re-exported. And Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, is already objecting, saying the tech could be diverted to China.

BACKGROUND- UAE diplomats have been working toward this for years. The Emirates became a so-called “major defense partner” of the US in 2024 and then inked a USD 200 bn investment framework last year alongside a May 2025 critical-tech agreement. The filing also notes that the UAE played a “key role advancing US interests” during the ongoing US-Iran war.

5

ECONOMY

The US delisting won't unlock Syrian reconstruction money until the banking rails are fixed

The US move to delist Syria as a State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST) is a positive signal for business, but it doesn’t fix what’s actually keeping capital out. The SST designation had become “a very good excuse for many companies to not really deal with Syria directly,” Karam Shaar Advisory’s Senior Consultant Benjamin Feve told EnterpriseAM. It imposed a reputational and compliance burden that kept banks, ins. providers, export-control officers, and board risk committees skeptical about investing in Syria even after the Caesar Act repeal removed most formal restrictions. Lifting it takes away that excuse, but doesn’t address the core issues.

The real blockers are banking connectivity and compliance. Syria was on the SST list long before 2011, and international players still wired money in and invested in the country. What broke under Bashar Al Assad in the post-2011 era was connectivity to the international banking system. Even with every sanction lifted, SWIFT theoretically restored, and Visa and Mastercard back in play, a bank still flags a USD 1 mn or a USD 1k transfer. FATF gray-listing is the harder gate, and the delisting from this one likely won’t come until 2027, we were told, even when FATF is due for another annual update next October.

The capital that has moved isn’t commercial: Private sector inflows so far are politically and personally driven — a few dozen USD bns, mostly Gulf money driven by the desire to be part of Syria’s rebuilding. Even in the CMA CGM investments in Latakia Port, the executive in charge has Latakia origins. Mainstream commercial investment hasn’t followed. Everyone sees the opportunity, but everyone is also cautious about the same things — snapback risk, a possible US political shift, and a dragging war.

Dual-use tech is the one area where the effect will be clearest. Washington already relaxed controls on dual-use tech exports to Syria in 2025 for telecoms, sanitation, power generation, and civil aviation. Delisting should make export licensing easier for rebuilding actors that depend on controlled components — airport systems, telecom infrastructure, and aviation. That still comes with a caveat. Turkey remains the most comfortable actor in providing dual-use tech to Syria, while Europe and the US may not be there just yet despite the SST delisting.

SOUND SMART- US export controls put rails on exports of dual-use tech — products with both military or civilian uses (think radars in airports or engines for aircraft). Exporters — whether they’re American or a foreign firm using US inputs — need a license from the US government to sell to an SST-designated country.

In a best-case scenario, the delisting eases correspondent banking, trade finance, payment channels, and ins. compliance as Syria moves out of the terrorism bucket, Feve says. But banks will still ask about counterparty risk, sanctions exposure, Assad-era ownership, corruption, and judicial credibility before moving.

Why this matters: With a reconstruction bill running to the USD hundreds of bns, and Syria’s own banks unable to finance it, Syria needs all the money it can get — not in two or three years, but right now. Most of the pledges made over the last year haven’t cleared their way in, and even those fall short of what Syria needs to jumpstart the economy.

6

WAR WATCH

US, Iran exchange strikes again as Hormuz traffic nosedives

The US and Iran continued to exchange strikes overnight and this morning, after a weekend of renewed tension as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after firing a warning shot yesterday at a Cyprus-flagged container ship it said took an “unapproved route.”

The US military launched strikes on Iran to “continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” US Central Command said, rejecting Tehran’s claims that it has closed the waterway. That was after the US launched attacks on Sunday targeting Iranian air and surface-surveillance radars, missile and drone storage facilities. Meanwhile, Iranian state media reported explosions in cities along the strait.

Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE have all been targeted by Iranian strikes over the past 24 hours, with each country reporting varying degrees of damage from the attacks. In Kuwait, Iran attacked two military bases that are Kuwaiti but host US military. Iran also hit similar targets in Bahrain.

Is Hormuz open? That depends on who you ask. Iran issued a statement declaring the strait closed to traffic, prompting Centcom to say the waterway is “open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit the international waterway” and that “Iran does not control the strait.” The back-and-forth comes as just six vessels — the lowest figure in five weeks — transited Hormuz yesterday. The vessels include a VLCC carrying Iranian oil, as well as another tanker carrying Kuwaiti oil products and three empty vessels that were en route to load oil in the Gulf.

7

MARKETS + DEALS

Egypt + Saudi IPO pipeline rebuilds as Gulf appetite holds

As is often the case with our Monday column, it’s an Egypt-and-Saudi heavy kind of morning, with plenty of color on what the future IPO pipeline might look like in the wake of Omifco’s successful listing in Oman.

UP FIRST- Hassan Allam Holding is thinking about public markets — for its subsidiaries, not itself. The group is weighing listings for some of its real estate and infrastructure subsidiaries on Gulf exchanges, the EGX, or both, while the parent stays private, Chairman and CEO Hassan Allam said on the sidelines a gathering at the London Stock Exchange.

The Cairo-headquartered construction, engineering and green energy giant, a unit of which also runs the Grand Egyptian Museum, has a USD 10.5 bn backlog split evenly between Egypt and its foreign markets. Saudi is the largest of the latter at c. USD 2 bn in active contracts — and is where real estate arm Grova launched its SAR 3.3 bn Noor Khuzam project. Hassan Allam Holding has denied chatter that a SPAC (a so-called “blank cheque” company that’s a speedy route to a listing) it put on the EGX is a backdoor listing for the construction arm.

MEANWHILE- Egypt’s Tatweer Misr is lining up an EGX debut next year, CEO Ahmed Shalaby told a press conference we attended — stake size and use of proceeds are still under wraps. The company is in talks with Egyptian banks on debt for Salt, its EGP 70 bn North Coast flagship and also recently launched an EGP 20 bn, five-year securitization program.

AND- Egypt’s private equity industry has spent five years building K-12 school platforms and is now edging toward its first cash-out. The Egypt Education Platform, an EFG Hermes-backed venture, has filed with the EGX to list 199.4 mn shares ahead of what could be the sale of 25% next May. Education stocks are trading at 20-22x earnings right now.

The catch, per Al Ahli Capital’s Mahitab Orabi: Sector valuations track EGX dynamics and macro sentiment more than school fundamentals, which makes timing the whole game.

FURTHER AFIELD: Tadawul gets SPACs. The CMA amended its securities offerings rules to give private Saudi firms a route to the public market through a merger with a listed shell rather than a full IPO, it said in a statement.


E& is now fully out of Vodafone and looks like it’s about to kick off a shopping spree. The Abu Dhabi-based tech and telecom giant signed a binding agreement to sell its entire 16.2% stake in Big Red to Vega, an acquisition vehicle owned by French telecom billionaire Xavier Niel’s family group, for c. AED 21.8 bn (USD 5.95 bn) in proceeds including Vodafone’s final FY 2026 dividend, according to a filing to the ADX (pdf). The exit closes a four-year run that began with USD 4.4 bn for an initial 10% in May 2022 and made e& the British telco’s largest shareholder; Niel now gets that crown.

The goodbye math: Vega is paying a 13% premium and e& will book a net return of c. AED 4.7 bn (USD 1.3 bn).

The big question on our minds: What does e& do with USD 6 bn — more AI? Deeper geographic expansion, after a year that trimmed its Careem holding back to Uber while its Slovak JV bought UPC and the group opened a wholesale hub in Miami? The company has flagged that it likes infrastructure, enterprise tech, fintech, and AI.


Burjeel Holdings’ debut sukuk shows investors have plenty of appetite for first-time Gulf issuers: The USD 500 mn offering on the London Stock Exchange, completed 7 July under a USD 1.5 bn program, was more than 3x oversubscribed. Despite wartime volatility, “We did not want to wait for somebody else” to go first, Chairman and CEO Shamsheer Vayalil tells us.

Burjeel will use the proceeds mostly to refinance bank debt, but the next issuances are earmarked for growth — a Saudi expansion built on day surgery centers rather than hospitals, starting with c. USD 100 mn for two facilities in Khobar (early 2027) and Riyadh, scaling to as many as 10. It is earmarking an additional AED 1.4 bn over the next two to four years for a medical school, research center, and digital health investments in Abu Dhabi.


Saudi private equity is nibbling at the edges of the fashion industry. ZYA, the SAR 300 mn fund Merak Capital launched in April with the Cultural Development Fund, is targeting growth-stage Saudi brands with capital and commercial support to go regional and international, Merak Principal Abdulaziz Alsaid tells us.

The pitch isn’t import substitution, but a bigger Saudi share of a fashion-and-beauty market that already contributes 2.6% of GDP and that the latest Saudi State of Fashion report says is the largest in the Gulf at USD 36.8 bn. ZYA is looking for companies with consistent revenue growth and “a credible path to profitability.”

ALSO WORTH KNOWING THIS MORNING-

The Abu Dhabi Investment Council has committed c. USD 1 bn to Deem Global, a London macro hedge fund launched in 2022 that now has USD 3.8 bn in assets under management, Bloomberg reports. It’s the third big Abu Dhabi hedge fund move in as many months, after ADIC backed ExodusPoint’s USD 2 bn raise in June and began weighing a USD 15 bn hedge fund portfolio.

Tadawul-listed industrial silica sand miner Mohammed Hadi Al Rasheed & Partners signed an agreement to buy 50% of Taif Shipping — the oilfield-services firm that transports and blends silica sand and chemicals for oil and gas customers — for SAR 92.5 mn, per a Tadawul filing.

Market Snapshot

Tadawul 0.1% • ADX 0.6% • DFM 0.9% • EGX30 -0.1%

Brent USD 78.49 / bbl • Gold USD 4,081 / oz • USD / SAR 3.75 • USD / EGP 50.00

8

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Tunisia secures USD 312 mn loan from Arab Monetary Fund as tourism and remittances revenues surge

Tunisia secured a USD 312 mn lifeline from the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF). The loan will be disbursed in three tranches — each maturing within seven years and to be paid over eight bi-annual installments after an initial grace period of 3.5 years. The loan agreement marks a financing milestone for Tunis as it continues to navigate a prolonged fiscal squeeze, with the AMF facility offering longer-tenor support outside the stalled IMF program talks.

A net-energy importer, Tunisia’s fiscal resources have been stretched during 1H due to the regional war, as it grappled with higher commodity and energy import bills, an inflated public sector budget, and rising sovereign borrowing costs — leaving the country with limited options to finance a growing budget deficit. Tunisia entered 2Q with a budget deficit of USD 1.8 bn.

Tourism and remittances growth in 1H saved the day: Despite the regional war headwinds, it wasn’t all doom and gloom for Tunisia. North Africa’s smallest economy saw tourism revenue grow by 4.4% y-o-y to USD 1.1 bn, a promising data point given that it doesn’t cover Tunisia’s peak tourism season in the summer. Remittances also rose 4.5% y-o-y in 5M 2026 to USD 1.2 bn, with estimates that remittances growth could grow as much as 6.7% in 2026.

Another one

Qatar’s UCC Holding enters Libya: Through its Urbacon Energy Libya arm, Qatar-based UCC Holding has signed an exploration and production-sharing agreement with Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) and the Libyan Investment Authority for Area 47 in the Ghadames Basin, near the Algerian border. UCC puts the investment at some USD 1 bn to target roughly 80k bbl / d production. It’s not entirely clear whether the agreement will focus on exploration, improving production in brownfields, or both.

This is UCC’s second entry into a reconstruction market in under a year. The group leads the consortiums rebuilding Damascus International Airport and building 5 GW of Syrian power capacity — the same projects behind a USD 7 bn ADCB-QNB-JPMorgan financing package we flagged earlier this month.

Denied

QIA blocks Iron Dome deal: Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund officially vetoed a Volkswagen joint venture with Israeli defense firm Rafael that would have turned a struggling VW plant in Osnabrück into a production line for Iron Dome mobile air-defense trucks, Bloomberg reports. Reports had emerged last month suggesting the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) — which holds more than 10% of VW’s shares and 17% of its voting rights — had “raised concerns” about the turnaround plan.

For VW, the block costs it a much-needed and long-sought restructuring option and leaves hundreds of Osnabrück jobs in limbo as German automakers lose ground to Chinese rivals.


14 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

23 July — Revolution Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

25 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Tunisia

28-29 July — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

30 July — Throne Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

August 2026

13 Aug — Women’s National Day. Tunisia

20 Aug — Revolution of the King and the People Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

20 Aug — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

21 Aug — Youth Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

25 Aug — Prophet’s Birthday (public holiday, markets closed) — TBD. Region-wide

31 Aug-3 Sep — LEAP technology conference. Saudi Arabia

September 2026

7-9 Sep — AIM Congress. UAE

15-16 Sep — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

15 Sep — IMF’s eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement. Egypt

16-17 Sep — Middle East Banking Innovation Summit. UAE

23 Sep — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Saudi Arabia

24 Sep — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

30 Sep-3 Oct — Cityscape Egypt 2026. Egypt

October 2026

3 Oct — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

6 Oct — Armed Forces Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

15 Oct — GCC Made in the Gulf Forum + Exhibition. TBD

21 Oct — 12th World Green Economy Summit (WGES). UAE

25 Oct — Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Libya

25-27 Oct — World Investment Forum 2026. Qatar

26-29 Oct — Future Investment Initiative. Saudi Arabia

27-28 Oct — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

29 Oct — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

November 2026

1 Nov — Revolution Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

2 Nov — Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition + Conference (ADIPEC) opens (through 5 Nov). UAE

6 Nov — Green March Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

19 Nov — Jordan-EU Investment Conference. Jordan

16 Nov — Cityscape Global begins (through 19 Nov). Saudi Arabia

December 2026

17 Dec — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

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