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A narrowing map

1

OPENING NOTE

Exhale, but don’t unclench

Good morning, friends. After weeks of holding our collective breath, the region is finally exhaling. The interim US-Iran peace agreement took effect yesterday, shipping is trickling back through the Strait of Hormuz, and the DFM celebrated by rallying 2.5% to its highest close since before the war — dragging itself back into positive YTD territory in the process.

It’s the kind of morning where you let yourself feel cautiously optimistic, but then immediately find reasons to worry again. The Strait may be open (seven vessels crossed yesterday) but US-Iran talks that were penciled in for today are off, and Israel seems to have decided it wants no part in the peace.

Elsewhere, we’re keeping an eye on SpaceX, which is lining up a USD 20 bn bond sale as soon as next week — days after pulling in USD 86 bn in the biggest IPO in history — to clear the bridge loan from March’s xAI-X merger. Moody’s handed it an investment-grade Baa1 on Thursday, with a caveat about “elevated execution and financial risks”: the company burned USD 6.4 bn last year and is still cash-flow negative. A USD 2.4 tn close on Thursday, good for sixth-largest company on the planet, apparently buys a lot of benefit of the doubt.

If you’re a parent — or just an elder millennial who laments how “kids these days” are growing up with TikTok — you’ll likely tip your hat this morning to the UAE Cabinet, which decided yesterday to set 15 as the minimum age for a social media account. The new resolution allows for no exceptions (not even with parental consent). The move is a first for any Arab country and follows similar rules pushed through in the UK. Platforms have a 12-month grace period to figure out how to enforce the rules.

AND- Don’t forget to plan something nice for your dad over the weekend — Father’s Day is this coming Sunday, 21 June. –Salma

2

THE LEDE

A narrowing map

MENA startups had a record year in 2025, but the regional landscape is being redrawn as the money pools in fewer places and smaller hubs are upsetting the status quo. According to Wamda’s annual investment report, 647 startups across the region raised a combined USD 7.5 bn last year, a 225% jump in total funding value and the strongest performance on record.

While the topline figure is impressive, the underlying data shows a lot more capital consolidation, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Last year, the UAE and Saudi Arabia together accounted for some 86% of total startup funding in the region. “A couple of years earlier, that 86% was coming from three countries combined,” Magnitt Research Director Farah El Nahlawi tells EnterpriseAM.

The concentration is only half the story: As the two Gulf countries take the lead in funding values, the region’s former leader, Egypt, has stumbled, and a new tier of smaller markets — led by Morocco — is positioning to take its place. The result is a market that is both more concentrated and more contested than the record topline suggests.

The record-year momentum carried into 2026, though at a more measured pace. The region drew USD 492.6 mn in capital in 1Q 2026, down from USD 3 bn a year earlier, with venture capital making up the bulk of it, according to GPCA data shared with EnterpriseAM. Regional investors are doing most of the work, participating in 64% of deals last year, according to Wamda, though the region splits on its appetite for foreign capital, with Saudi Arabia leaning less on international investors than the UAE.

Hardly homogeneous

MENA’sstartup market has never moved as one, and the divides are sharpening as it grows. Its biggest cities now show up in the global rankings: Tel Aviv, Dubai, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi lead the region, with Cairo and Casablanca behind them, according to Startup Genome's 2026 Global Startup Ecosystem Report, which places several MENA hubs in the top 40 of its Global Leaders list and the top 200 of its Emerging Ecosystems list.

“Maybe you could say there are four different regions in MENA. There is the Maghreb — Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria — and then there is Egypt. Egypt is kind of its own thing. Then there is the Levant — Jordan, Syria, Lebanon — and you have the GCC,” Jeff Schlapinski, managing director of research at GPCA, tells EnterpriseAM.

“Since 2023, the UAE and Saudi [have been] the leaders. Then you have Egypt, followed by Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. Below that, you have Lebanon, Bahrain, Iraq, and Oman, and then a step down before you get to Algeria and Palestine,” Schlapinski says.

What separates these blocs is, increasingly, money. The Gulf’s dominance is underwritten by sovereign wealth — state-backed funds in the UAE and Saudi Arabia have poured capital into the venture space and drawn in international investors behind them. By Wamda’s count, Saudi Arabia was the most funded in 2025, followed by the UAE, with Egypt a distant third.

Egypt’s explosive rise and teetering fall…

No country illustrates the re-sorting better than Egypt, which not long ago led the region. Egypt closed more deals than any other MENA country in 2022, according to Magnitt data, with fintech being the crown jewel. Then the top three spots reshuffled, and the UAE and Saudi Arabia pulled ahead.

The collapse in transaction sizes was stark. “In 2020 and 2021, some strong Egyptian startups were getting term sheets for anywhere between USD 10-50 mn, but a lot of USD 20-30 mn discussions were going on from international investors. From 2022 to 2024, these same companies were starting to raise USD 1-2 mn,” Algebra Ventures Managing Partner Tarek Assaad tells EnterpriseAM. Much of the capital that remained came from Gulf investors, who took over the market for seed, pre-series A, and series A funding.

A sharp devaluation of the EGP in the years since its startup scene peaked and global fiscal tightening converged into what Assaad describes as a “double whammy,” with liquidity draining out around 2022. “By 2024, everyone exited; liquidity dried up. Between 2024 and 2025, geopolitical conflicts started, bringing massive issues, so everyone halted funding and stopped high valuations. There was no engine for growth,” says Seif Bahgat, director of strategic partnerships at Sanad and a program manager at Flat6Labs.

Egypt has since steadied, but at a far lower altitude. “There’s movement — healthy movement — but it’s neither the crazy high of 2020-2021 nor the crazy low of 2022-2023,” Bahgat says. The damage shows most at the earliest-stage startups: “We are not seeing innovative startups like before, so a seed investor does not have a large pool of options today,” he tells us. “By 2025, seed funding had dropped so low it was practically non-existent. Now, it is starting to return through individuals and angel investors, but there is no dedicated entity focusing on seed investment because it is a very risky level of investment.”

The pressure has also pushed founders out the proverbial door: More Egyptian startups are now incorporating in regional hubs like Abu Dhabi, or in Delaware, to escape slower bureaucracy and clunky banking at home.

…and Morocco’s rise to fame

As Egypt slid, Morocco climbed. Within North Africa, it has drawn the most investor interest, positioning it as one of the most funded ecosystems in the region and, for stretches of 2025, lifting it ahead of Egypt in monthly rankings, according to Wamda’s 2025 year in review. Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya trail well behind.

“Morocco is probably the farthest ahead with some of their initiatives and the support of local investors. I’m thinking of local ins. groups and asset managers that are active in the public markets there, alongside support from the government,” Schlapinski says.

That mix of exceptional talent and a welcoming investment environment is what drew Algebra Ventures into the market, and what Middle East Venture Partners (MEVP), one of the region's oldest institutional venture firms, is betting on. “We love to enter ecosystems early, right when we think they are about to grow. Morocco is now ready for scale-up, so we want to be among the first funds to invest in that stage there,” MEVP co-founder and co-CEO Walid Mansour tells EnterpriseAM.

The marquee case is DeepEcho, which Assaad says “is considering literally everywhere in the world as potential expansion markets because they have very unique technology.” DeepEcho is an AI-first healthtech startup that was recently awarded FDA approval for its AI-powered fetal ultrasound. Algebra Ventures backed the startup in 2023.

The emergence of new corridors

If the map is fragmenting, it is also reconnecting along new lines — and the most promising of them runs between Egypt and Morocco. “We see a big opportunity for a corridor between Egypt and Morocco. We see Egyptian startups going to Morocco — many from our portfolio, like Dsquares and Convertedin, are already there, and there are several others exploring the market. We also expect Moroccan companies to come to Egypt as well,” Assaad says.

The two hubs are complementary. Egypt is older and more mature; Morocco is still building, but with crucial advantages. “One key difference is the currency has been much more stable in Morocco than it has been in Egypt,” Assaad notes, adding that Morocco’s links to Europe and to Francophone Africa make it a natural bridge between markets. Egypt, in turn, offers scale: “Egypt has a large population, a low-cost base for serving other markets, and deep technical expertise. You have potentially significant upside if you can hedge against macro risks. In my view, these are both very attractive long-term opportunities because in Egypt, the growth potential is massive.”

The convergence is already underway on both sides. “It’s happening at the startup level and at the investment level,” Assaad says. “Algebra invested in Morocco, Flat6Labs has been there for a while, so there’s that movement." Moroccan capital is flowing the other way too: Al Mada Ventures, one of the largest private investment funds in Africa, and Akwa Group, one of Morocco’s largest conglomerates, have both invested in Egypt.

Pressure points

While the regional war may squeeze startup funding, there are other challenges to grapple with beyond geopolitics. El Nahlawi flags three major pressure points: Global venture capital slowing, particularly among investors who were only beginning to eye the region; a sluggish graduation rate from early stage to series A, which has averaged 6-7% over the past decade and where the UAE leads; and a recalibration of sovereign support as the countries most affected by the war redirect tightening revenues.

Some downplay the geopolitical impact on funding. “For many of the global investors who have set up shop in the region, the playbook is probably largely the same because the policy of local policymakers and their agenda is clear. They want to support economic diversification, innovation, and bringing in technologies from outside into the region," Schlapinski says.

What will shift is the spending mix: “There’s going to be a concerted effort to rebuild infrastructure, invest more in defensive capabilities, and potentially focus on local sourcing for some of those things. Some of the smaller economies in the region specifically targeted by the conflict will have to invest in recovery and rebuilding.” MEVP’s Mansour reports no notable change either — roughly 70-80% of the capital raised for the firm’s Fund IV came from international investors.

What now?

The next chapter may belong to the smaller players. Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, and Tunisia are increasingly seen as the markets to watch. “In smaller countries, the value of the VC space and the tech ecosystem is starting to become more visible,” El Nahlawi says.

But visibility is not yet leverage. The Gulf still commands the overwhelming share of the region’s capital, and nothing in the 2025 numbers suggests that balance is about to tip. The likelier near-term map has two dominant poles in Riyadh and the UAE, ringed by a widening field of smaller hubs, from Casablanca to Amman, each angling to become the region’s new third center of gravity.

3

WAR WATCH

Now comes the hard part

The countdown begins: The USA and Iran now have 60 days to turn the 14-point MoU the pair signed yesterday into a permanent peace agreement. A long spate of thorny issues await — as well as spoilers lurking to bring back the fighting — mainly Israel and hardliners in Iran. For many in the GCC, the absence of any provisions that limit Iran’s ballistic capabilities is alarming. Meanwhile, Israel is yet to commit to a ceasefire in Lebanon despite MoU provisions pledging to end hostilities there.

The process is already off to a rough start as talks that were scheduled to take place later today in Geneva were called off and US Vice President JD Vance scrapped his travel plans to Switzerland. It remains unclear when the talks are now scheduled to begin.

Windfall expected for Iran — now it has to sell it to hardliners

Iran could emerge with a score of wins if this moves ahead. On top of lifting oil sanctions and the USD 300 bn investment vehicle that were reported on earlier this week, Iran could regain access to some USD 100 bn in frozen assets abroad, mostly from unrepatriated crude revenues. Estimates put China as the top holder with some USD 20-50 bn, followed by Iraq with about USD 15 bn, USD 7 bn in each of India and South Korea, USD 6 bn in Qatar, and USD 3 bn from Japan. Luxemburg and the US also hold USD 2 bn each.

But all this windfall may be too little for an increasingly influential camp of hardliners in Iran. An emerging group of parliamentarians has been raising public pressure and staging public protests against Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who both are leading Iran’s negotiations with Israel, the Guardian reports.

Hormuz rush loading

Everyone now is rushing to load crude from Iraq and the GCC — but the outcome is uneven. Chinese importers PetroChina and Sinochem have so far failed to secure very large crude carriers (VLCCs) at a reasonable rate for late June, with all the offers from shippers coming in at least at three times the pre-war rates, Reuters reports, citing unnamed company officials and shipping industry sources who are in the know. Meanwhile, India’s refining major the Indian Oil Company received no offers at all in a recent tender to lift crude from Iraq next week, one of the sources adds.

While Chinese and Asian players are struggling, others may already be lifting from Iraq, freeing up storage space and setting the stage for the major producer to restore its production levels that collapsed earlier in the war due to lack of storage capacity, Bloomberg reports. The push has allowed Iraq to reach some 1.6 mn bb / d this week, up from 900k earlier this month, and some 20 tankers are already scheduled to arrive later this week, Basim Abdul Karim, director general of the Basra Oil Operations Center, reportedly said.

Meanwhile, Qatar is moving LNG tankers back toward the Gulf. Five empty Qatar-owned vessels are heading to Ras Laffan after idling outside Hormuz, with four more Qatar-linked tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman that could attempt a Hormuz passage into the Persian Gulf.

Iran's tankers are moving too: Four Iran-linked vessels — including two supertankers capable of hauling 2 mn barrels each — switched on their transponders and sailed out of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman ahead of the agreement signing, Bloomberg reports. At least three ships waiting at Chabahar port had also left their positions.

Bypass redundancy here to stay

Gulf producers are building Hormuz out of their supply chains — peace deal or not. The UAE is planning a third oil pipeline on top of fast-tracked expansion of the Habshan-Fujairah bypass to hit “zero Hormuz dependency,” Foreign Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi told Bloomberg. The UAE is also accelerating investments in new infrastructure, including a new harbor to sit alongside the Eastern ports of Dibba, Fujairah, and Khor Fakkan, as well as more rail and road networks to eliminate reliance on the strait, Al Zeyoudi said.

Overseas storage is growing as a Gulf playbook: Saudi Aramco is meanwhile eyeing largeroverseas crude storage — starting with an expanded South Korea deal — joining Adnoc and Kuwait, which already run similar Ulsan storage-for-priority-access deals.

4

ECONOMY

Outliers

Saudi Arabia and Oman will be the only two GCC economies to keep growing in 2026. The rest of the bloc is heading into a 2.4% contraction as the US-Iran war reshapes oil flows and trade, the ICAEW said in its Economic Update. That’s a sharp downgrade from the 0.2% contraction it forecast three months ago, and a reversal of the 3.6% expansion the wider Middle East was tracking before the war. The region is now seen shrinking 4.1%.

In Saudi Arabia, oil is taking the hit while the rest holds: The Kingdom posted 3% y-o-ygrowth in 1Q 2026 — its slowest since 2Q 2024 — with oil being the primary drag, though strategic rerouting and the East-West pipeline cushioned the downturn. Food inflation has stayed contained, as CPI inched up 1.8% in May, in contrast to pressure building in Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar.

Oman, the other outlier: The IMF backed up ICAEW’s forecast, saying in a statement it expects Oman’s economy will grow 3.7% this year before cooling to 3% in 2027. The Fund expects higher oil production to do the heavy lifting. Non-hydrocarbon growth is set to ease to 2.5% in 2026 as the conflict hits tourism and construction, then rebound to 3.2% in 2027. Fiscal and external positions are strengthening — after narrowing to 0.6% of GDP in 2025 on lower oil prices and higher capital spending, the fiscal surplus is projected to widen to 4.5% of GDP in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.

The oil shock, in numbers: GCC oil output faces its steepest decline in decades, down 14.5% this year on the shipping disruption, before a 23.5% rebound in 2027 off a depressed base. ICAEW sees Brent averaging USD 90 / bbl this year, easing over the medium term as the UAE's exit from Opec+ and a planned West-East pipeline set to double export capacity through Fujairah. Inbound tourist arrivals across the GCC are forecast to fall 30% as security concerns reshape booking and destination decisions.

What's next: ICAEW pegs the recovery to the Strait reopening to normal transit, which it expects to come slowly. It sees GCC headline inflation at 2.6% y-o-y in 2026, easing to 2.1% in 2027 as supply-side pressures fade. The Fed is expected to hold rates until December, with regional central banks following the lead.

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5

MARKETS + DEALS

Mad rush

Banks are in a race against time to compress months of dealmaking into a few crowded weeks of open market, with investment-grade spreads back inside pre-war levels and a summer lull — plus the Fed — set to close the window. A handful

Emirates NBD has closed the largest FDI ever made in India’s banking sector, taking a 60% stake in Mumbai’s RBL Bank for USD 2.8 bn, according to a statement (pdf). It’s the first time a foreign bank has taken majority control of a profitable Indian lender — a barrier that held for decades and required sign-off from both the Reserve Bank of India and markets regulator SEBI. The deal institutionalizes the UAE-India capital corridor at the banking level, giving Dubai’s largest lender by assets a direct foothold across 600+ branches serving 1.4 bn+ people.

The mechanics: Emirates NBD bought in through a preferential share issue. Public shareholders, offered an exit under India’s mandatory open-offer rules, didn’t tender (pdf), leaving the bank with 60% rather than the 74% it could have taken. Emirates NBD will fold its existing Indian branches into RBL and reshape the board — two existing directors are resigning, replaced by five Emirates NBD executives including Group CEO Shayne Nelson and Group CFO Patrick Sullivan.

Ninja is inching closer to carving up Delivery Hero’s Gulf assets. The Saudi quick-commerce unicorn is working with Saudi and international investment banks to acquire some of Delivery Hero's holdings in the Kingdom and the UAE. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, UBS and Riyad Capital are advising.

Ninja was reportedly weighing a bid for parts of Delivery Hero’s Middle East portfolio, including Saudi unit HungerStation and a joint acquisition of Dubai-based Talabat. It’s also gearing up for a potential IPO that could raise USD 1 bn by late 2026 or early 2027.

Dubai Islamic Bank is back in debt markets for the second time this month, raising USD750 mn via a three-year senior unsecured Islamic financing — jumping on the chance again while spreads recover. DIB just last week priced a USD 1 bn AT1 sukuk at 6.25%, drawing a book of over USD 2.3 bn in a single-day roadshow, with MENA investors taking 83%. HSBC, Mizuho and Standard Chartered are lead arrangers and bookrunners.

Aljazira Bank closed its USD 500 mn Reg S perpetual AT1 sukuk under its USD 1.5 bn program, priced at 650 bps above US treasuries. The five-year callable certificates will list on the London Stock Exchange's International Securities Market.

First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) is heading back to debt markets with a green label, mandating a three-year EUR-denominated green bond under its USD 20 bn Euro Medium Term Note Program at initial price thoughts of mid-swap plus 100-105 bps. Proceeds will fund or refinance projects under its Sustainable Finance Framework, with the bond expected to list in London. BBVA, HSBC, ICBC, Societe Generale and Standard Chartered are joint lead managers alongside FAB, and Standard Chartered is billing and delivery bank.

Abu Dhabi is placing a wager on fusion. Government-owned early-stage fund Plynth Energy has taken a minority stake in US-based Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) — one of the world’s best-funded fusion startups, with nearly USD 3 bn raised to date, Nuclear Engineering International reports. Axios put the stake at more than USD 100 mn, though terms aren't officially disclosed. Plynth is targeting precision manufacturing, advanced materials and diagnostic systems while gaining exposure to CFS’ SPARC reactor in Massachusetts and its planned ARC commercial plant in Virginia.

No bang for the buck just yet: Commercial fusion is still years out, but governments and investors are already jockeying for position around the supply chains expected to form around it. CFS expects SPARC to hit first plasma — the milestone marking initial charged-gas generation — this year or next, though grid-scale production could be a decade away.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING TODAY-

Cntxt AI, an Arabic AI startup, raised USD 60 mn in a series A co-led by PE firm BlueFive Capital and AI71, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi's Advanced Technology Research Council. It’s one of the larger early-stage Gulf AI raises this year and will fund product development and expansion into new markets.

MENA-focused fintech Sovra raised just over USD 2 mn in pre-seed funding to build a platform offering self-custodial USD accounts on stablecoin infrastructure, according to a press release (pdf). The round was led by Pharsalus Capital and drew a roster of angel heavyweights: Ramp founder Karim Atiyeh, Lean Technologies founder Hisham Al-Falih, 21Shares founder Hany Rashwan, and Egyptian b’naire and Orascom Development Holding Chairman Naguib Sawiris.

Market Snapshot

Tadawul 0.1% • ADX 1.2% • DFM 2.5% • EGX30 1.1%

Brent USD 79.03 / bbl • Gold USD 4,206.9 / oz • USD / SAR 3.75 • USD / EGP 49.99

6

A MESSAGE FROM MASHREQ

The economics of speed: why Gulf consumers reject slow banking

The GCC’s shift toward real-time finance is changing how consumers and businesses evaluate financial institutions. Payments settle in seconds, onboarding is expected to happen remotely, and access to credit is now embedded directly into digital platforms. In this environment, delays are no longer interpreted solely as an inconvenience. They create operational friction.

Banks are increasingly restructuring products around these expectations. Mashreq recently launched instant digital cross-border accounts for Egyptians and Pakistanis living in the UAE, allowing customers to open accounts remotely and transfer funds across markets more efficiently. For expatriate customers, the value is straightforward: fewer branch steps, faster account opening, and easier movement of money across the markets they live and work between.

Embedded finance is also becoming part of how consumers expect to access credit. Through its partnership with Toothpick, Mashreq provides patients with access to fully digital healthcare financing at the point of care for dental and aesthetic treatments. Separately, its collaboration with Cashew integrates near-instant financing into merchant platforms across sectors, including healthcare, education, and home services, reducing delays between purchase decisions and access to financing.

Together, these products point to a wider change in banking. Customers now judge banking by how quickly it turns a need into access. Mashreq's cross-border accounts, embedded healthcare financing, and merchant credit integrations reflect what this shift looks like in practice: banking products designed to reduce the time between need, access, and action.

Ghazal Al Sakaal, Global Head of Ecosystems and Platform Banking

7

THE CORRIDOR

Beyond the buck

What does China’s expanded currency swap line with Egypt mean? China expanded its local-currency swap line with Egypt and extended it three years earlier this month, lifting the ceiling 67% to CNY 30 bn (c. USD 4.4 bn). While a renewal is routine, the scale of the increase raises the question of whether this is a mere FX liquidity play with a partner Egypt runs a wide deficit against, or if Cairo being drawn further into Beijing's drive to internationalize the CNY.

The context: A growing Egypt-China corridor. “Raising the ceiling by this magnitude reflects the significant development in economic and financial relations between Egypt and China over recent years,” banking analyst Ahmed Shawky tells EnterpriseAM. Since the original 2016 agreement, trade and investment have expanded, Egypt has joined Brics, and the search for USD alternatives hardened. “There are genuine needs stemming from the expansion of Chinese trade and investment in Egypt. On the other hand, the move fits within a long-standing Chinese strategy aimed at strengthening the CNY’s role and reducing dependence on the USD.”

For Egypt, it’s a balance-sheet buffer, not a statement. “Instead of relying entirely on bond issuances or external borrowing, this mechanism offers an alternative source of foreign-currency liquidity, helping diversify the state's available financing tools,” EFG Hermes Head of Macroeconomic Analysis Mohamed Abou Basha tells us. China's operational footprint has also created onshore demand: Egypt has begun issuing CNY-denominated bonds backed by Chinese guarantees, and Chinese firms operating locally need EGP to cover wages, inputs, and obligations, Abou Basha says.

Don’t oversell it: “We should not exaggerate its effect,” Shawky notes — these are precautionary backstops, more useful as trade financing becomes the corporate norm. The line would still ease commercial USD demand, enabling direct CNY settlement while supporting exchange-rates stability and preserving reserves,” banking analyst Mohamed Abdel Moneim says.

Who benefits in Egypt? Heavy industries importing Chinese machinery, large infrastructure and energy projects run by Chinese contractors, firms inside the Suez Canal Economic Zone, and Egyptian companies dealing directly with Chinese suppliers will be better off as they pick up a pricing edge on Chinese intermediate goods, Abdel Moneim adds.

China has the bigger upside. Because Egypt imports far more from China than it sells — China's surplus with Egypt widened to roughly USD 19 bn last year — the line's near-term use is set to support financing Chinese imports, not closing the gap. “The agreement itself does not address the trade deficit. It may simply make import transactions easier and more flexible,” Shawky says. To make it a net gain, Egypt would have to push exports to China, attract more export-oriented Chinese investment, and raise the value-added content of what it makes.

ZOOMING OUT- The Gulf plays the same instrument differently. Where Cairo reaches for the CNY out of liquidity need, the GCC holds it for optionality and, perhaps, geopolitical leverage as well. Saudi signed a CNY 50 bn (USD 6.98 bn) swap with Beijing in 2023, and the UAE has had a line since 2012, and both sit on enough dollars — Abu Dhabi alone on roughly USD 270 bn in reserves — to make the CNY a choice rather than a necessity. That difference turned explicit this spring: as Iranian strikes squeezed USD flows during the war, a US swap line for the UAE was floated, and the WSJ reported that the UAE signaled it might settle some oil in CNY if USD got short — an implicit jab at the petrodollar.

8

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Ports of return

Two decades later

DP World is in exclusive talks to return to US container ports after a 20-year absence, with the Dubai-based ports giant set to design, build, and operate a new terminal at the Port of Corpus Christi in Texas, Bloomberg reports.

The 20-year backstory: DP World was forced out of US ports in 2006 over lawmaker security concerns. It has since kept logistics operations in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, with Vancouver as its main North American cargo gateway via rail to Chicago and inland markets — but no container terminals on US soil.

Corpus Christi gives DP World a Gulf Coast container play as nearshoring reshapes US trade flows. The Texas port handles more overall tonnage than most US peers, though mainly on energy, chemicals, and bulk cargo rather than containers. DP World says the new terminal would help it capture rising container demand as manufacturers diversify supply chains away from Asia — a trend that has made Gulf Coast capacity a strategic priority.

A+

IMF praises Jordan economic reform: Jordan is set to receive USD 187 mn in funding from the IMF, after it cleared the multilateral lenders’ reviews for two ongoing financing programs with flying colors. The approval gives Jordan access to some USD 134 mn as the sixth tranche of the four-year USD 1.3 bn Extended Fund Facility focused on fiscal reform and supporting private sector growth. The remaining USD 54 mn will come as a third tranche of the 30-month USD 700 mn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) focused on supporting the water, electricity, and public health sectors.

The Jordanian economy remained resilient despite regional headwinds, but external support is still paramount, the IMF said. “Fiscal discipline” got a special nod from the multilateral lender, which also stressed the need for sustained donor support to “support Jordan’s development objectives, while shouldering the cost of hosting a large number of refugees.” The IMF expects Jordan’s GDP to grow at 2.7% this year and 3.1% in 2027.

Another step for Riyadh Air

Riyadh Air just cleared US airspace: The US Transportation Department granted the PIF-owned carrier the right to run scheduled and charter service between the Kingdom and the US. It’s another box ticked for an airline that flew its first commercial London Heathrow flight only last week.

9

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING

Pipeline diplomacy?

Watch this space

Iraq’s new Prime Minister is heading to Washington next month to meet Trump, in the first major diplomatic test for the former banker and businessman, who will be leading a delegation of Iraqi business leaders to pitch investment and trade opportunities.
The business agenda: Securing US investment for rehabilitating the Syria-Iraq pipeline will be on top of Al-Zaidi’s agenda during the visit, with Al Zaidi expected to sign an MoU with the US-based TI Capital to rehabilitate the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline at an estimated cost of USD 8 bn. Other areas would be supporting US companies to resume operations after they ceased due to security concerns. Iraq also just granted Musk’s Starlink the license to provide internet services in the country after Al Zaidi met with the US special presidential envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack.

The timing matters: The visit was announced just after the US and Iran announced an interim agreement to end the war, which we think is ultimately good for a productive visit for Al Zaidi. The new US-Iran de-escalation could take off the heat over two major fraught issues in US-Iraqi relations: the US demand that Iraq disarm the powerful Iran-backed, quasi-state militias and sever Iranian energy imports that Baghdad depends on for electricity — possibly giving Al Zaidi breathing room to focus on business and trade ties.

Sign of the times

The US is now pushing to unify Libya’s rival governments — the political track of a wider business-driven US push that we reported was coming last April. Massad Boulos, President Trump’s senior adviser for Arab and African affairs, told the FT that Washington wants to fold Libya’s split institutions into a single government, with the explicit aim of clearing the way for American oil majors to scale up in the country.

The business case for Libya is clear: Many international oil companies (IOCs) view Libya as very promising medium and long-term investment ground — that’s why some IOCs, including many US-based ones like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips, rushed to Libya’s first tender in 17 years back in February. Libya holds the largest crude reserves on the African continent and also boasts friendly extraction geology, with shallow fields that are quick to bring into service and cheap to operate. For IOCs working on 15- to 25-year horizons, securing a foothold in Libya despite political fragmentation is seen as a rational business decision.

How the US plan would work: Washington’s focus on Libya is on three sequenced tracks, Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, previously told us. The military track came first — the Flintlock joint exercises in mid-April that Bloomberg just reported on, which brought eastern and western forces together for the first time since the 2020 ceasefire. The economic track followed with the US-engineered unified budget in April — Libya's first in 13 years, which forced a degree of revenue-sharing and transparency between the two governments. And the political track — folding the rival administrations into one, which is the hardest of the three, and the one now in motion.

What’s next: Harchaoui argued that the political track would be complicated and slow. The real test for Washington’s ability to get things done in Libya would be how compliant the competing governments would be on the unified budget — and the moment to check in on that would be next August when the US is expected to audit the execution of the budget for the first time.


June 2026

21-24 June — Afreximbank Annual Meetings. Egypt

July 2026

2 July — Parliamentary elections. Algeria

5 July — Independence Day (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

9 July — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

14 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

23 July — Revolution Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

25 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Tunisia

28-29 July — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

30 July — Throne Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

August 2026

13 Aug — Women’s National Day. Tunisia

20 Aug — Revolution of the King and the People Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

20 Aug — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

21 Aug — Youth Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

25 Aug — Prophet’s Birthday (public holiday, markets closed) — TBD. Region-wide

31 Aug-3 Sep — LEAP technology conference. Saudi Arabia

September 2026

7-9 Sep — AIM Congress. UAE

15-16 Sep — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

15 SepIMF’s eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement. Egypt

16-17 Sep — Middle East Banking Innovation Summit. UAE

23 Sep — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Saudi Arabia

24 Sep — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

30 Sep-3 Oct — Cityscape Egypt 2026. Egypt

October 2026

3 Oct — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

6 Oct — Armed Forces Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

15 Oct — GCC Made in the Gulf Forum + Exhibition. TBD

25 Oct — Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Libya

25-27 Oct — World Investment Forum 2026. Qatar

26-29 Oct — Future Investment Initiative. Saudi Arabia

27-28 Oct — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

29 Oct — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

November 2026

1 Nov — Revolution Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

2 Nov — Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition + Conference (ADIPEC) opens (through 5 Nov). UAE

6 Nov — Green March Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

19 Nov Jordan-EU Investment Conference. Jordan

16 Nov — Cityscape Global begins (through 19 Nov). Saudi Arabia

December 2026

17 Dec — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

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