Libya’s coffers could be up for a possible boost by 2H 2027 as Ras Lanuf Refinery gears for resumed operations

Libya’s downstream oil sector could get a much-needed boost in 2H 2027 as Libya’s largest refinery in Ras Lanuf gears up to relaunch, commodity analytics platform Kpler predicts.

Europe will lose, but it would be a net positive for Libya: Ras Lanuf coming back online will by definition trim Libya’s exports of Amna, Sarir, and Messla crude to Europe, all the while limiting Libya’s fuel imports bill — a key source of pressure on the country’s fiscal balance, one analyst tells EnterpriseAM. The effect, he estimates, will be a net positive given how more costly refined petroleum products are. Libya imported c. USD 9 bn worth of fuel products in 2024, a figure equivalent to about a third of the country’s revenues from crude exports that year.

Background: Ras Lanuf Refinery has been mothballed for over a decade due to disputes with the Emirati partner Trasta Energy, a subsidiary of Al Ghurair Group. Last Month, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) settled the dispute and acquired Trasta Energy’s 50% stake — and it is currently working on rehabilitating the facility at the cost of USD 60 mn. Ras Lanuf has a processing capacity of 200-220k bb / d.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- Libya’s oil and gas sector has been steadily attracting investors’ interest as the country ramps up production expansion, offers new exploration licenses, and sends signals of improved fiscal governance and anti-corruption efforts. The turn of fortunes peaked last month on the heels of improved daily output and high oil prices, which helped the NOC generate USD 4 bn in revenues — almost double the monthly average from 2025.