Saudi firms are lining up to IPO, while UAE and Egyptian outfits strike more cautious notes

The simple read is that GCC dealmaking is back on ice — that’s how theFinancial Timesframes it after the war in the Gulf nuked the 1Q recovery that bankers had quietly hoped would help generate some of the USD 1 bn they thought they could make in MENA this year. The reality is a bit more hopeful — though that hope is very localized as a handful of players sprint to market before the 1Q window closes and others eye fall offerings.

Tadawul looks right now like it could be the bankers’ only hope — and the fees there will be modest. Would-be Saudi issuers are pressing ahead with bets that the bourse’s deeply local investor base — retail and domestic institutions alike — have appetite for fresh paper. And they’re not wrong: Investors in London and New York are tepid on Saudi equities at best, but state-backed institutions in the Kingdom have political pressure to pile into domestic offerings as Riyadh looks to distinguish itself from Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

Mighty mouse: IT services outfit Dar Al Balad broke the wartime logjam — its offering to retail investors closes tomorrow after the institutional book cleared at the top of the range — 30% of the company at SAR 9.75 per share. The sale is tiny — a SAR 205 mn (USD 55 mn) book at a SAR 682 mn (USD 182 mn) valuation — but It’s the first IPO in the region since the war kicked off in February. In that respect, the symbolism matters more than the size.

There’s a pipeline now forming behind Dar Al Balad. Delivery app Ninja is lining up advisors for a USD 1 bn Tadawul IPO in late 2026 or early 2027, as we have previously noted, with Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Riyad Capital, and UBS all said to have been given a piece of the mandate. And both Mutlaq Al Ghowairi Contracting and Arabian Dyar are racing late-June deadlines to list before their CMA approvals run out (or need renewal).

And there’s more: Olayan-backed Health Water Bottling is working with Lazard, Etihad Salam Telecom is shopping for junior banking advisors, PIF-backed ArcelorMittal Tubular Products Jubail has hired JPMorgan and HSBC, Alkhorayef Petroleum is preparing regulatory approval, and Ejada Systems is renewing its approval, per Bloomberg.

It’s a lot quieter in the UAE and Egypt. The headline UAE pushback is Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), whose USD 10-15 bn offering will slip to at least next year, a source familiar with the matter told the FT. Investor meetings had started before the war, in which one of EGA’s smelters suffered severe damage. Dubai Holding has also paused preparations to list its retail assets, the FT says, with tourism cancellations doing the damage on the demand side — inbound arrivals to Dubai could contract 27% y-o-y this year.

It’s much the same story in Egypt. Bankers had already taken the hotly anticipated IPO of Banque du Caire on the road, lining up substantial appetite from early looks for prospective cornerstone investors in London, New York, the UAE, Saudi, and South Africa. A 20% slice of Misr Life Insurance is also in the pipeline.

The mood in Cairo, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai is exactly the wait-and-see that Elaeo Partners founder Kapil Jobanputra described to the FT — “broadly on hold” while investors reassess risk and valuation. Analysts and investors we’ve spoken with think regional fundamentals remain intact even as the calendar slips, saying the war has not yet reshaped how the global capital views MENA+.

Meanwhile, Gulf investors are happy to cash out some risk by monetizing mature, non-strategic foreign investments. Adia-backed Innio is heading for a Nasdaq IPO at a USD 15 bn target valuation, per SEC filings. The Munich-based gas-engine maker follows UAE-backed Cerebras, which prices its hotly anticipated USD 4.8 bn book. Adia and a co-investor will retain joint control of Innio through a holding entity after the listing.

The Mumbai version of that same play just collapsed. Reliance Industries restructured Jio Platforms’ planned IPO as a fresh-share issue rather than an offer-for-sale, sending the proceeds to Jio rather than to existing shareholders, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are in the know. Jefferies had valued Jio at USD 180 bn in November, implying a USD 4.5 bn raise from a 2.5% fresh issue. Adia (around USD 750 mn in) and PIF (around USD 1.5 bn) are now long India whether they want to be or not…