Gulf capital markets are showing signs of life this morning even as the war shows no sign of ending

Markets are showing signs of life this morning despite the war. AT1 sukuk are pricing again, EFG Hermes just got tapped to run a hotly anticipated Egypt IPO (hell, when’s the last time you saw the words “Egypt” next to “hotly anticipated IPO?), and another big global financial services player is opening in the UAE. And as we noted on Friday, Emirates NBD is about to wrap the largest cross-border GCC bank M&A in a generation.

The counterpoint: Stressors in the real economy are really starting to show. The UAE’s IFFCO is heading to provisional liquidation with USD 2 bn of debt — and HSBC appears to be the one pulling the trigger.

Here’s the rundown:

IFFCO is heading to provisional liquidation — and this looks like the first major UAE family conglomerate of its profile to be taken to court by its own bank syndicate. An HSBC-led group of lenders, including several Dubai and Abu Dhabi banks, has nominated FTI Consulting as provisional liquidator in courts in the Isle of Man and Singapore — the two jurisdictions where IFFCO’s main legal entities sit.

The background: The conglomerate has more than 12k employees in 50 countries, USD 2 bn of debt, and product lines that include olive oil, biscuits, poultry, and animal feed. It’s perhaps best known to most UAE residents as the operator of the London Dairy ice cream brand.

The trigger was a board reshuffle two weeks ago. IFFCO had been in restructuring talks formonths: Alvarez & Marsal was the original adviser, replaced by Rothschild & Co a few months later. The company brought in an independent board under creditor pressure and dropped in a regional restructuring veteran. Two weeks ago, the founding Allana family restructured that independent board themselves. That move flipped lenders from negotiation to litigation.

Watch this space: The optics of a major Emirati family conglomerate getting taken to court by its bankers — including its own home-market lenders — is a rare.

The Gulf sukuk market is unfreezing. Saibclosed an SAR 1.85 bn AT1 sukuk at 6.5% (Alistithmar and Al Rajhi Capital as joint leads), Alinmakicked off another SAR-denominated AT1 issuance under its SAR 5 bn private placement program (Alinma Capital and HSBC Saudi Arabia leading), and even smaller players like Intelligent Oud are moving forward with public retail-and-institutional offerings. The signal: GCC bank capital appetite is recovering despite regional volatility.

Emirates NBD reopened the regional AT1 market last week, successfully pricing its USD 750mn issuance at 50 bps tighter than its initial guidance. The move marked the first re-entry by a GCC player into debt markets since the war began.

Egypt’s GlobalCorp is up for sale, with anchor investors SPE Capital, Amethis, and EBRD lining up an exit that could see up to 100% of the homegrown non-bank financial services player change hands within two to four months, our Egypt desk confirms. Word on the street has the transaction valued at USD 200 mn (EGP 10.7 bn), against the EGP 914 mn the consortium paid for 90% in 2022. Arqaam Capital is quarterbacking, with more than half a dozen strategic and financial bidders circling — including a UAE-based bank that’s been sniffing around since last year.

In context: A clean transaction here would be the second M&A validation for Egypt’s financial services sector this year and a real shot in the arm for the local PE market.

EFG Hermes has the Misr Life IPO mandate, named sole global coordinator and bookrunner by the Sovereign Fund of Egypt for the 20% float of the state-owned life insurer. That now makes it one of two hotly anticipated IPOs on deck in Egypt after Banque du Caire, where EFG Hermes and CI Capital are sharing duties.

Egypt’s new competition law nearly triples the M&A review thresholds — a recognition that successive EGP devaluations had collapsed company valuations in USD terms, leaving the old thresholds catching small or competitively insignificant deals at the cost of regulatory bandwidth. Foreign acquirers of Egyptian targets now need combined global sales above EGP 15 bn (up from EGP 7.5 bn) and a target with sales above EGP 500 mn (up from EGP 200 mn) before mandatory review kicks in — clearing a wider lane for mid-market cross-border M&A. The law is on Sisi’s desk; 90 days from signing to live.

Egypt is heading back to Tokyo for a USD 500 mn Samurai bond expected this month or by early June, a report suggests. It would be the country’s third Samurai issuance (after USD 500 mn each in March 2022 and November 2023) and its first under a sustainable finance framework, with the African Development Bank wrapping the deal with a USD 400 mn partial credit guarantee covering 80% of the issuance.

State-owned Omani bunkering logistics players O Bunkering and Marafi Services have finalized a merger that will bring services from both players under the banner of O Bunkering. The move ultimately folds Marafi services under Oman’s logistics giant Asyad Group, the parent company of O Bunkering. The merger comes a few weeks after the government folded budget carrier Salam Air under flagship airline Oman Air in what looks like a wider push to consolidate state-owned logistics players.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING THIS MORNING-

Rokos Capital Managementopened in ADGM, joining Bain Capital and Hillhouse from the past month. The news comes just a week after Citadel confirmed it’s setting up in DIFC.

e& has completed its EUR 95 mn takeover of broadband operator UPC Slovakia via subsidiary O2 Slovakia, agreed last December, continuing the international scaling that has also seen the UAE telecom take Telenor Pakistan and a Miami wholesale hub.

O Gold — the UAE-based fractional gold and silver ownership app integrated into Botimlastyear — has secured an undisclosed Silicon Valley check from Plug and Play Ventures, per a release, with proceeds going to international expansion and product rollout.

Udora, the UAE gifting startup, raised USD 10 mn in a private round ahead of a Saudi market entry slated for 3Q. Funds also go to product expansion and AI integration.

Market Snapshot

Tadawul +0.1% • ADX +0.1% • DFM 0.0% • EGX30 +1.1%

Brent USD 108.38 / bbl • Gold USD 4,626 / oz • USD / SAR 3.75 • USD / EGP 53.60