Private capital isn’t frozen — yet

1

OPENING NOTE

Trump says he wants Iran’s oil

Good morning, friends. We have a tight issue this fine Monday morning. But before we dive in:

Donald Trump just told the Financial Times in an exclusive sitdown that his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran.

Verbatim: “To be honest with you, my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the US say, ‘Why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people. Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options. It would also mean we had to be there [in Kharg Island] for a while.”

Trump has ordered more than 10k troops to the Gulf. Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are running shuttle diplomacy, the world is running out of fertilizers, oil has hovered at around USD 115 / bbl the last few hours, quiet layoffs are hitting the UAE, and Egypt will require most businesses to work from home on Sundays starting next week.

What do you do when you want to hold a piece of land? Put boots on the ground. It’s shaping up to be an interesting week. –Patrick and Salma

Still writing checks

The conflict in the Gulf hasn’t yet killed deal momentum for private equity and venture capital in the Middle East and North Africa, as we talked about last week, but if the conflict drags on much longer, it could reshape how and where the region’s PE and VC-backed companies find their way to market — and slow the pace at which earlier-stage companies are raising capital.

The trend on exits was already clear before the drones and F-35s started flying: Portfolio companies backed by private capital — the private equity and venture capital firms that invest in businesses with a view to eventually selling or listing them — were turning more and more frequently to local exchanges for exits rather than making what had been the traditional one-way flight to London or New York.

The numbers speak for themselves: Public-market exit values for PE and VC-backed companies globally hit USD 38.2 bn in 2025, up 21% y-o-y, according to a new report (pdf) by the Global Private Capital Association (GPCA). In the Middle East (excluding North Africa), those exits surged 179% to USD 626 mn.

Here’s where things stand one month into the conflict:

#1- Investors are still writing checks. There’s no evidence (yet) of significant investor pullback from capital calls — the periodic cash transfers that PE and VC investors commit to sending when a fund they’ve backed needs the money. That suggests portfolio companies that have already raised capital aren’t in immediate danger of being starved of the funding they were promised. It also says something about sentiment — limited partners backing PE and VC firms aren’t tapping the brakes.

#2- Dealmaking by PE and VC firms is slowing. The conflict has brought a “pause or a slower pace in new investments,” GPCA Research Director Jeff Schlapinski told EnterpriseAM. The war could change where investors write tickets, though: “Everyone will be closely looking at logistics, shipping developments, and energy markets as we progress through the year, but there is no evidence to suggest a pullback so far,” he added.

#3- The strongest companies are still plotting local listings. Saudi quick-delivery unicorn Ninja is testing IPO waters despite the war, gauging investor appetite for a Tadawul main market listing in late 2026 or early 2027, as we noted this past Friday. The four-year-old startup logged USD 1 bn in revenue last year and is aiming to hit USD 1.6 bn this year. It claimed a USD 1.5 bn valuation in a round led last July by Riyad Capital. Ninja is looking at Tadawul, not the NYSE, to open the exit gate for investors: The Saudi exchange has held up better than most regional bourses since the conflict started, with strong oil prices propping up energy heavyweights.

SOUND SMART- Morocco, not Tadawul or DFM, is the breakout story: The Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) has emerged as the biggest exit success for private capital in the MENA-Africa space. CSE is now the second-largest exchange in Africa with an aggregate market capitalization exceeding USD 106 bn, and in 2025 it hosted some of the region’s most successful PE-backed IPOs. Fintech outfit Cash Plus was 65x oversubscribed, while Morocco’s largest private healthcare provider Akdital reached a EUR 2 bn valuation after listing.

(We have more on Akdital in today’s What We’re Tracking, below.)

“The CSE is entering a very promising phase supported by a strong and increasingly sophisticated ecosystem — including an active regulator, a growing institutional investor base, research coverage, and the increasing participation of private equity firms,” Albert Alsina, founder of Mediterrania Capital Partners, said in the GPCA report. CSE listings are also increasingly becoming a launchpad for homegrown companies raising capital to expand abroad, GPCA notes.

Why go local?

The economics are shifting. Western exchanges like the NYSE require massive enterprise value to justify a listing, Schlapinski tells us. The compliance burden alone can be punishing — a lesson the region learned the hard way with Swvl, the Egypt-born mobility startup that listed on Nasdaq via a SPAC at a USD 1.5 bn valuation in 2022 and promptly lost 99% of its value. Four years on, Swvl is still fighting delisting warnings. The Cairo-to-Dubai-to-New York path didn’t deliver.

And listing closer to home attracts a type of investor that already understands what it means to be an emerging-markets player. “The advantage of local listings like Casablanca is that investors there are more likely to understand the business story,” Schlapinski explains. Local investors know the market, the regulatory environment, and the competitive landscape in a way that generalist funds in New York simply don’t. EM specialists, simply put, don’t spook as easily.

Companies in Saudi and the UAE look likely to remain the prime targets for private capital this year. “When we look at the GCC and MENA specifically, the vast majority of targets for private capital are in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. We do see some investments in Oman, but it’s a relatively smaller scale of activity,” Schlapinski said.

What to watch

Markets around the world are focusing more and more on ‘local’ capital. “We see an increased focus on local capital investing at home and an increased focus on local resilience and independent means of production everywhere in the world,” Schlapinski says.

Markets with strong domestic investor bases, like India, are better positioned to maintain deal momentum even as international capital turns cautious. “A lot of the strong public market activity in India is driven by local investors, not so much international capital, so it should remain relatively strong. In the near term, a cautious approach will prevail until energy markets stabilize again,” he notes.

(The India comparison is interesting: The Mideast’s USD 626 mn in PE / VC-backed public market exits in 2025 is a fraction of what India generated — GPCA tracked exits by private-capital-backed companies worth USD 15.6 bn in India last year.)

The implication for MENA: The exchanges and markets that have built deep local investor pools — Tadawul, Casablanca — are the ones most likely to see PE and VC-backed listings resume first when the war fog clears. The UAE could follow suit, but it will require significant injections of cash (openly or not) by sovereign funds, we think.

BACKGROUND- The Global Private Capital Association, founded in 2004, is a non-profit membership organization representing private investors managing portfolios of over USD 2 tn worldwide, with a focus on emerging markets.

Industry is now fair game

Vital industrial infrastructure in the region is now in the line of fire, with steel production facilities in the UAE, Bahrain, and Iran struck over the weekend. Iran hit Emirates Global Aluminum’s (EGA) Al Taweelah plant in Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad) and Aluminium Bahrain’s (Alba) main smelter in retaliatory strikes after two major Iranian steel production complexes in Asfahan and Khuzestan were struck on Friday, killing at least 2 and wounding several others.

“These are two of the biggest regional players, and any hit to their production and supply infrastructure naturally disrupts the flow of metals that several global industries rely on,” dry bulk shipping consultancy Bharat Maritime told EnterpriseAM in a statement.

The disruption is likely to be prolonged, as damage to key facilities means it’ll take a while before production can resume, Bloomberg reports. Bahraini iron pellet and structural steel producer Foulath Holding announced force majeure on Saturday, affecting certain group operations as a precautionary measure in response to regional developments.

“A significant premium on aluminium prices globally” is likely, Bharat Maritime said — and analysts had previously told us that finding alternative producers quickly will be tricky. Aerospace, electronics, and construction sectors in Japan, the US, and the EU are expected to be especially hit, with each importing some 19-25% of their primary aluminum from the GCC. Around 9% of the world’s total aluminum supply comes from the region.

Meanwhile, China could be impacted by halts in Iran’s steel production: Iran is the world’s largest producer of direct reduced iron, churning out some 34.1 mn tons of the essential industrial material — almost a third of the world’s capacity, according to a report (pdf) by the US-based industry leader Midrex. While most of the country’s production is for domestic use, Iran is reportedly a big exporter of steel and Iron products to China, but how badly China will be impacted depends on the volume of Iranian exports — and there is no available verifiable data on that.

The attacks are more bad news for already battered global industrial supply chains. It expands damage to aluminum production and adds steel supply chains to the list of the war’s casualties.

Houthis enter the chat

Iran pulls an ace out of its sleeve: Yemen’s Houthi militia has officially joined the war after sitting on the sidelines for almost a month since the war started. The group fired ballistic missiles at Israel on Saturday and vowed to keep up attacks as long as US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah continue.

IN CONTEXT- The Houthi’s entry in the war coincided with the US sending more troops to the region in preparation for possible ground operations in Iran, Reuters reported.

Could the Houthis' entrance into the war see vessels in the Bab Al Mandab Strait be targeted next? While Israel seems to be the sole target for now, policymakers will likely be concerned that the group will resume its attacks on passing vessels making their way to and from the Suez Canal. Even if maritime attacks do not materialize, the Houthi’s active involvement in the war will likely further ward off shipping lines from the region and push up war ins. premiums.

What will happen if the Houthis shut down Bab Al Mandab? Closing that strait would deal a big blow to Saudi Arabia’s efforts to reroute its oil volumes and some parts of the larger GCC trade through its western coasts. This will leave the Suez Canal as the only major way out for Saudi oil and GCC’s exports and the only way in for most GCC-bound trade, including essential products like food.

GCC turns to Kyiv for drones

GCC, Kyiv tighten their defense ties to counter Iran’s attacks: Ukraine signed defense cooperation frameworks with Riyadh and Doha on Friday that lay the foundation for future joint investments, tech exchange, and defense procurement. Another agreement is also in the works with the UAE, while Kuwait has already deployed. The agreements with Qatar and Saudi cover a 10-year period and are centered on countering aerial threats, moving beyond procurement into joint production and shared systems.

For the GCC, Ukraine offers a pragmatic solution to an expensive security gap. For years, Gulf countries have relied on US-made Patriot and Thaad interceptors, costing USD 3 mn per missile, to down USD 20k Iranian Shahed drones — an economic mismatch that has become unsustainable with the scale of attacks the past month.

The pitch: Ukraine’s layered defense system costs just USD 2k per interceptor drone and can down nearly 1k UAVs in a single day with a 95% success rate, offering fast access to battle-tested, rapid-response technologies.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is looking for new defense partners: The Ukrainian leader is leveraging four years of anti-drone warfare expertise to secure Gulf funding and technology, saying Ukraine can produce about 2k drone interceptors daily with sufficient financing. The visit comes amid reports that the US may redirect weapons earmarked for Ukraine to the Middle East as Iran tensions strain munitions stockpiles, pushing Kyiv to diversify defense ties.

ALSO- This month, Kyiv deployed over 220 experts to advise Middle East countries on countering drone attacks, holding workshops and briefings with military staff in the region, while sharing practical air defense experience.

No soft landings

The war is beginning to filter down to revised-down growth forecasts — and the damage to GDPs is unlikely to be reversed even if the war had ended yesterday. This was the key takeaway from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD) regional economic update (pdf), which said EBRD regions — including those outside MENA — are looking at a “growth forecast … revised down by up to 0.4 percentage points” if oil prices remain above the USD 100 threshold.

Net energy importers in our region will be the hardest hit from the conflict. Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt — as well as Iraq, which was the only net energy exporter in the list — are the most vulnerable, with impacts felt through a combination of surging energy and raw materials prices, disrupted trade, and a debt-servicing burden increasing fiscal pressure.

Even with a welcome quick end to the war, gas prices are still expected to remain high “as European and Asian buyers scramble to refill storage while LNG production takes weeks to restart,” according to the report. A lot also depends on how damaged energy infrastructure in the region is when the war ends and how long it takes to first repair and then restart operations — a particularly lengthy process for LNG facilities.

The extent of the impact will be determined by an “individual economy’s ability to cushion the terms-of-trade shocks based on their existing fiscal and external buffers,” the update said. Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey, and Tunisia (alongside a few other non-MENA economies) were flagged as having the most limited buffers.

But many of these governments have stretched their monetary and fiscal policies thin due to successive crises — think of the high interest rates and a surge in the debt-to-GDP ratios that these economies have accumulated in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. That means interest rate hikes as a policy tool to respond to inflation would be an extremely painful option, given the already very high debt servicing bill in many of these countries — reaching as much as 89% of the country’s revenues, in the case of Egypt.

Remittances as the elephant in the room: Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan rely on the GCC for 4-8% of their GDP via remittances. Although “remittance flows tend to remain stable in times of crises,” the longer-term concern is that “prolonged conflict could reduce demand for foreign labour in the GCC economies.”

One sky, one owner

The Omani government just took full control of state-linked budget air carrier SalamAir, calling time on domestic airline competition in what was likely a move to support the ongoing recovery of its flagship carrier Oman Air, which is clawing its way back from a debt-fueled solvency crisis. The acquisition aims to “improve financial solvency” and reduce overlap across the two networks, Transport Minister Said bin Hamoud Al Maawali said. The value of the transaction was not disclosed.

The acquisition was made via Asyad, Oman Investment Authority’s (OIA) logistics unit, which bought out SalamAir’s former owner Muscat National Development and Investment Company — a consortium of parastatal entities.

Managed competition doesn’t work: SalamAir launched in 2017 as a private sector-led (and budget-friendly) alternative to Oman Air. The two had been flying head-to-head for the same passengers on 16 routes including Muscat-Dubai and Muscat-Doha. The result: price wars that bled cash from both entities.

What we think will happen next: While the government says the two will continue to operate independently, Asyad is almost certain to merge back-end operations — think maintenance, catering, and ground handling.

Egypt struggles to stay the course + JMP’s Electronic Arts buzzer-beater

War-driven volatility has most Gulf markets on track to end the first quarter in the red. Nearly all GCC markets closed down yesterday amid reports of the US preparing for some form of ground invasion of Iran. That capped a weekend that saw the Houthis enter the war and fresh airstrikes by Israel, the US, and Iran targeting industrial infrastructure.

Saudi is the big outlier in it all thanks to high oil prices —it and Omar are the gainers for March with just two trading sessions left in the month:

Muscat Stock Exchange: +9.3% for March (and up c. 37% YTD)
Tadawul: +5.8% (but still in the red YTD)
Boursa Kuwait: -2.1%
QSE: -4.9%
BAX: -6.5%
DFM: -16% (even after gaining 2.4% last week
ADX -6.4%

JPM nails a buzzer-beater for PIF

How JPMorgan sold USD 15 bn in EA debt between airstrikes: Bloomberg has a great behind-the-curtain piece on how JPMorgan offloaded the debt financing behind PIF’s USD 55 bn Electronic Arts buyout — the biggest LBO ever — in the middle of the war in the Gulf.

The short version: Bankers spent weeks parsing Truth Social posts and Air Force One statements for windows of calm, then sprinted when Trump announced a five-day strike pause on 23 March. JPMorgan launched USD 8.125 bn in leveraged loans and USD 6.4 bn in bonds, drew more than USD 50 bn in investor demand from 500+ accounts, and got it done in three days across three time zones.

The loans were priced at 98.5 cents on the USD — a concession that reflects the war’s drag on credit markets. The bonds popped on day one, but the pipeline behind EA looks shakier: Qualtrics paused a USD 5.3 bn debt deal last week after investors balked, and JPMorgan still has a USD 4.7 bn Sealed Air loan sale due next week.

Egypt tries to stay the course

Egypt’s IPO pipeline is wobbly, but pharma is still moving: TCV Managing Partner Mohamed Mahgoub tells us that plans to float portfolio company Copad Pharma remain on track for a potential 4Q IPO. EFG Hermes is advising. The listing will test whether investor appetite for defensive sectors like pharma holds up while cyclical companies sit on the sidelines waiting for valuations to recover.

MEANWHILE- The IMF warned in a recent report (pdf) that “no material [privatization sale] has occurred over the last 24 months.” The Madbouly government has lined up four asset sales it expects to generate USD 1.5 bn by June, plus a USD 3.5 bn Qatari Diar land deal. To close the gap on the original USD 6.5 bn target, the state is shifting non-strategic firms to a liquidation unit and routing high-value assets through the Sovereign Fund of Egypt, with 50% of privatization revenues pledged to debt retirement.

Also worth knowing today

ADCB is pushing into Central Asia, securing a permit from Kazakhstan’s financial market regulator to set up a subsidiary bank, according to Kazakhstani state media. The commercial launch is pending final approvals, but the direction is clear: corporate banking services plus an Islamic finance window in a market where Gulf banks have been largely absent.

Saudi Arabian Refineries Company wants to raise SAR 300 mn via a 66.7% capital increase through a rights issue, per a Tadawul disclosure. Alinma Capital is advising.

Red Sea International is raising SAR 100 mn in sukuk under its murabaha program, per a Tadawul disclosure. Tarmeez Capital is sole lead arranger. The proceeds go to working capital and to finish a restructuring that includes cost cuts and shuttering unprofitable operations outside Saudi.

Market Snapshot

Tadawul -0.13% • ADX -1.61% • DFM -0.12% • EGX30 -1.27%

Brent USD 115.03 / bbl • Gold USD 4,494 / oz • USD / SAR 3.7523 • USD / EGP 53.53

Tightening the purse

Shareholders of GCC banks could be looking at a 50% cut to their 2026 dividends as execs look to shore-up their balance sheets against fallout from the war. A Bloomberg Intelligence estimate assumes a two-month conflict — and while it’s bad news for the shareholders, a two-month cushion suggests good fundamentals for GCC banks, which entered this period of heightened tension with robust Tier 1 capital and low NPLs.

Safety-first math: The sector is expected to take a 5-15% hit to its bottom line, driven by rising risk costs and cooling credit growth. By halving 2026 dividends, the industry could preserve an estimated USD 10 bn in capital. This move would effectively add roughly 50 bps to risk-weighted assets as an extra “safety margin.”

While giants like QNB and KFH sit on massive cushions, others are closer to the scrutiny zone of 13-14%. In the UAE, ADIB and DIB have tighter capital buffers that might necessitate dividend restraint. In Kuwait and Qatar, NBK and the Commercial Bank of Qatar have narrower margins than their local peers, making them prime candidates for capital reinforcement. And in Saudi Arabia, Bank Al Jazira and SAIB remain the most sensitive to capital shifts.

What’s next: To protect capital, banks are expected to pull back on non-essential corporate lending. This could potentially slow down private-sector projects as lenders focus their remaining capacity on strategic sovereign priorities.

More Trojena contracts scrapped

Watch this space

#1- It’s not looking good over in Trojena as Saudi Arabia has canceled yet another contract. Italian construction giant Webuild’s USD 4.7 bn contract for two projects within Neom’s Trojena mountain ski resort project has been scrapped, with the kingdom exercising a “termination for convenience.”

With two major infrastructure contracts canceled so far, it appears the project has been shelved (at least for now) as Saudi Arabia weighs its gigaprojects bill against reality. The USD 38 bn desert ski resort has been on the rocks since last year, when the kingdom postponed hosting the 2029 Asian Winter Games at Trojena, which was slated to launch this year.

It’s at least the third gigaproject-related contract cancelled in the last month following news we picked up last week that Malaysian steel firm Eversendai had lost its contract for Trojena.

#2- Morocco’s Akdital Holding is pivoting its expansion strategy toward the GCC, earmarking USD 350 mn to develop 11 hospitals across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Tunisia by 2030. The Casablanca-listed healthcare group expects the international push to generate some MAD 5 bn in annual revenue. While the firm had previously eyed Sub-Saharan Africa, CEO Rochdi Talib noted those plans are now on ice due to a “difficult business climate” and a shortage of medical staff — signaling a clear preference for the deeper pockets and more stable regulatory environments of the India-MENA corridor.

#3- Syria is looking to drum up USD 1 bn in foreign investment to overhaul its telecom and postal sectors, split evenly between the two. Officials in Damascus claim that French and Italian postal firms have expressed preliminary interest, though talks with regional players remain in the “early stages.” The push is the latest attempt by the Sharaa administration to court international capital to revive an economy gutted by over a decade of conflict.

Happening this week

Purchasing manager indices for most of our region are due this week. The data will be expected to capture the start of the fallout in the private non-oil sector due to the war.

Data point

100k — that’s the number of trucks that have docked in Jeddah port since the war began, almost a fifth of the Saudi trucking fleet. This comes as Saudi Arabia takes on a critical role in helping its Gulf neighbors sustain access to the global markets primarily through a Jeddah-Dammam corridor.

7 mn bbl/d — the volume of crude flowing through Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline. That means the Kingdom has hit maximum capacity of the pipeline — it’s the first time ever, and a feat some analysts said could be unattainable due to infrastructure and logistical hurdles. Saudi Arabia now exports 5 mn bb/d through its Yanbu terminals.

CALENDAR

April 2026

10 Apr — Central Bank of UAE policy rate decision. UAE

12 Apr — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

13 Apr — IMF / World Bank spring meetings begin (through 18 Apr). Washington/Virtual

14 Apr — QNB 1Q 2026 earnings guidance. Qatar

15 Apr — 2Q IPO listing window opens; DIP prospectus expected. UAE

18 Apr — Kuwait Stock Exchange sector rebalancing effective. Kuwait

20 Apr — GCC Supreme Council economic session (dates pending confirmation). Saudi Arabia

22 Apr — Saudi Aramco ex-dividend date. Saudi Arabia

30 Apr — OPEC+ ministerial meeting, June production decisions. Vienna/Virtual

May 2026

3 May — SAMA 1Q 2026 inflation report. Saudi Arabia

5 May — Central Bank of Egypt 1Q 2026 monetary policy outlook. Egypt

8 May — Qatar Central Bank 1Q 2026 financial stability review. Qatar

10 May — Tadawul 1Q 2026 market review and foreign investor activity report. Saudi Arabia

12 May — Emirates Global Aluminium IPO window opens (pending). UAE

15 May — Emirates NBD 1Q 2026 earnings. UAE

18 May — First Abu Dhabi Bank 1Q 2026 results. UAE

20–22 May — Arab League economic cooperation session, Cairo. Egypt

22 May — Central Bank of UAE policy rate decision. UAE

25 May — ADNOC Drilling 1Q 2026 results. UAE

28 May — QNB 1Q 2026 results. Qatar

29 May — Saudi Telecom Company 1Q 2026 earnings. Saudi Arabia

31 May — Regional central banks publish Ramadan financial impact assessments. Region-wide

Sections

About

Privacy & Support

Get EnterpriseAM daily