Egypt struggles to stay the course + JMP’s Electronic Arts buzzer-beater

War-driven volatility has most Gulf markets on track to end the first quarter in the red. Nearly all GCC markets closed down yesterday amid reports of the US preparing for some form of ground invasion of Iran. That capped a weekend that saw the Houthis enter the war and fresh airstrikes by Israel, the US, and Iran targeting industrial infrastructure.

Saudi is the big outlier in it all thanks to high oil prices —it and Omar are the gainers for March with just two trading sessions left in the month:

• Muscat Stock Exchange: +9.3% for March (and up c. 37% YTD)
• Tadawul: +5.8% (but still in the red YTD)
• Boursa Kuwait: -2.1%
• QSE: -4.9%
• BAX: -6.5%
• DFM: -16% (even after gaining 2.4% last week
• ADX -6.4%

JPM nails a buzzer-beater for PIF

How JPMorgan sold USD 15 bn in EA debt between airstrikes: Bloomberg has a great behind-the-curtain piece on how JPMorgan offloaded the debt financing behind PIF’s USD 55 bn Electronic Arts buyout — the biggest LBO ever — in the middle of the war in the Gulf.

The short version: Bankers spent weeks parsing Truth Social posts and Air Force One statements for windows of calm, then sprinted when Trump announced a five-day strike pause on 23 March. JPMorgan launched USD 8.125 bn in leveraged loans and USD 6.4 bn in bonds, drew more than USD 50 bn in investor demand from 500+ accounts, and got it done in three days across three time zones.

The loans were priced at 98.5 cents on the USD — a concession that reflects the war’s drag on credit markets. The bonds popped on day one, but the pipeline behind EA looks shakier: Qualtrics paused a USD 5.3 bn debt deal last week after investors balked, and JPMorgan still has a USD 4.7 bn Sealed Air loan sale due next week.

Egypt tries to stay the course

Egypt’s IPO pipeline is wobbly, but pharma is still moving: TCV Managing Partner Mohamed Mahgoub tells us that plans to float portfolio company Copad Pharma remain on track for a potential 4Q IPO. EFG Hermes is advising. The listing will test whether investor appetite for defensive sectors like pharma holds up while cyclical companies sit on the sidelines waiting for valuations to recover.

MEANWHILE- The IMF warned in a recent report (pdf) that “no material [privatization sale] has occurred over the last 24 months.” The Madbouly government has lined up four asset sales it expects to generate USD 1.5 bn by June, plus a USD 3.5 bn Qatari Diar land deal. To close the gap on the original USD 6.5 bn target, the state is shifting non-strategic firms to a liquidation unit and routing high-value assets through the Sovereign Fund of Egypt, with 50% of privatization revenues pledged to debt retirement.

Also worth knowing today

ADCB is pushing into Central Asia, securing a permit from Kazakhstan’s financial market regulator to set up a subsidiary bank, according to Kazakhstani state media. The commercial launch is pending final approvals, but the direction is clear: corporate banking services plus an Islamic finance window in a market where Gulf banks have been largely absent.

Saudi Arabian Refineries Company wants to raise SAR 300 mn via a 66.7% capital increase through a rights issue, per a Tadawul disclosure. Alinma Capital is advising.

Red Sea International is raising SAR 100 mn in sukuk under its murabaha program, per a Tadawul disclosure. Tarmeez Capital is sole lead arranger. The proceeds go to working capital and to finish a restructuring that includes cost cuts and shuttering unprofitable operations outside Saudi.

Market Snapshot

Tadawul -0.13% • ADX -1.61% • DFM -0.12% • EGX30 -1.27%

Brent USD 115.03 / bbl • Gold USD 4,494 / oz • USD / SAR 3.7523 • USD / EGP 53.53