Moving the energy market

Good morning, wonderful people. We’re beginning the first full work week of 4Q 2026 with two big energy supply decisions that happened over the weekend — although neither one of them actually brings any new barrels into the market.

The G7 is releasing up to 100 mn barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves over four months, with a substantial diesel release inside the first 20 days. Diesel is the pressure point. US pump prices have averaged USD 6.50 a gallon against USD 5.61 a month earlier, after the war cut Middle East exports to Europe, Ukrainian strikes hit Russian refineries and China stopped exporting. Capital Economics’ Hamad Hussain expects “some downward pressure on prices, particularly global diesel prices,” and called the effect short-lived. Former IEA official Neil Atkinson said the release does not touch the underlying problem of global supply running below normal. Brent slipped under USD 100 on the announcement and is back at about USD 101.50 this morning.

Opec+ left November targets alone at its Sunday meeting, holding the seven core members’ joint quota at about 31 mn bbl / d and extending the pause it began in October, according to a statement. The group finished unwinding 1.65 mn bbl / d of voluntary cuts in September and is holding a further 2 mn bbl / d back through year-end. Most members are producing below their targets anyway because of the war, which makes the quota a statement of intent more than a supply figure.

Meanwhile, even as the regional war widens on a new front, it’s looking like tourism appetite is remaining intact. Marriott’s Middle East RevPAR is expected to climb around 70% from 2Q levels and Hilton’s about 65% as peak season opens, Bloomberg reports, citing analyst estimates, with Dubai and Abu Dhabi among the markets expected to carry the 4Q rebound. Those percentages come off a war-depressed second quarter, worth remembering before anyone reads them as a full recovery. –Salma