US troops leave Iraq after 20 years as analysts see gains for pro-Iran militias

US forces are set to exit Iraq today after two decades of war amid ongoing regional tension in the Gulf as security analysts see a strategic benefit to Iran’s allies. Pro-Iranian militia groups stand to gain as they would "seek to translate that momentum into greater influence over security and political decision-making,” Iraqi security analyst Jasim Al Bahadli told Reuters. The vacuum created by US forces is feared by some Iraqi groups who deemed it as “premature” because it might strengthen pro-Iranian groups.

Road to 100

The UAE is lining up another USD 25 bn investment in India “in the near future,” India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said (watch, runtime: 24:45) following an India-UAE Investment Task Force meeting in Mumbai. The UAE has already invested USD 25 bn in the country, with the longer-term ambition of taking that number to USD 100 bn, Goyal added.

Energy is moving up the agenda: India and the UAE are studying greater UAE investment in India’s strategic petroleum reserves — and are looking into making the UAE a larger source of LNG and LPG. Subsea pipelines are also being considered to transport and potentially store gas in India while building more sturdy energy supply chains.

IN CONTEXT- India became Adnoc Gas’ largest LNG customer after it inked a binding 10-year LNG supply pact with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation during President Mohamed bin Zayed’s January visit to New Delhi. Adnoc signed more than USD 20 bn of LNG contracts with Indian buyers over the past two years.

Ports will also be in the spotlight going forward as India looks to double port capacity to keep up with economic growth. Goyal highlighted the UAE as a key investment partner for expanding India’s existing ports and developing new ones, specifically citing Odisha on India’s east coast — a state that has already seen joint UAE-India infrastructure collaboration.

No cargoes coming

QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG shipments to Asian and European buyers through November and into early December, as the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to keep flows well below prewar levels, Bloomberg. Pakistan, Bangladesh, at least one Indian buyer, and Italy’s Edison have all been notified of continued cancellations.

The decision comes despite a slight pickup in Hormuz traffic. At least five loaded vessels have turned up outside the Gulf since mid-September, Reuters reports, citing Kpler data. The latest, GasLog Skagen, surfaced off Sri Lanka on 27 September with a Ras Laffan cargo. Some ships still cross Hormuz with their transponders off, so the tracking data doesn't capture every crossing.

LNG prices in Europe and Asia have surged to their highest since late 2022, threatening household energy bills heading into winter. This means QatarEnergy’s buyers now have to plan for winter without their scheduled shipments.