The capacity question

Good afternoon, friends. The AI valuation ladder gained another rung overnight, the UAE’s autumn calendar is bursting at the seams, and we’ve reached the point in the robots’ world takeover where they are now spending an evening hitting each other.

The private market is being asked to carry a USD 1.2 tn company before it rings the bell. OpenAI is courting top investors for a major capital raise that would lift it to that valuation ahead of a public debut, the Financial Times reports, on the strength of its newest model. The talks are preliminary and the target may move as negotiations run over the coming months, with Sam Altman saying last week that a listing is unlikely before next year.

That leaves the sector’s two biggest names on opposite tracks — Anthropic raising USD 100 bn at USD 2 tn with Nvidia in talks to anchor, OpenAI funding itself privately and staying off the exchange — and MGX holding equity in both.

Dubai is about to find out how many events its calendar (and floor space) can physically hold. More than 100 shows have been packed into the final four months of the year after the war pushed the spring season back, making this the busiest stretch the emirate’s exhibition industry has ever run.

Riyadh’s entry in the same calendar was two humanoid robots beating each other up on the Boulevard in Riyadh in what was Hero Esports’ first event outside China. Saudi has put some USD 250 mn into the company, whose founder, Chinese b’naire Dino Ying, pulled royals, investors and influencers to what Semafor bills as Monster Trucks for the Terminator era. The valuations elsewhere in this note assume the technology eventually finds an audience willing to pay for it.

What we’re keeping an eye on tonight: The US Federal Reserve is set to announce its first interest rate decision under Kevin Warsh, and the market is broadly pricing in a hike after Friday’s higher-than-expected CPI figures. The statement language will move more money than the number, and it will be worth keeping an eye on US President Donald Trump’s reaction to another Fed decision that defies his desires. –Salma