Diplomacy and escalation run side by side as UAE and Iran signal potential thawing

Diplomacy and escalation are running side by side this morning, as the UAE and Iran signaled a possible warming at Brics, while Houthi and Iraq-launched attacks pressed on Saudi’s oil export infrastructure over the weekend.

A UAE-Iran opening?

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the Brics summit, marking the first meeting between officials from the two countries since the war began, according to state news agency Wam. They discussed easing regional instability and promoting de-escalation.

UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash followed up on X, noting Pezeshkian had expressed “balanced and rational positions during the protracted crisis.” The UAE and Iran were also among those inking a joint statement calling for de-escalation in the regional war, with Pezeshkian telling BBC Arabic the two countries wanted to “turn the page on the past and look to the future.”

The backdrop: The Emirates severed trade and financial ties with Iran just last month, following the first direct attack on UAE territory in months — something that Tehran has denied involvement in.

A parallel diplomatic track seems to be stalled, however. Gulf foreign ministers were scheduled to meet their Iranian counterparts in Salalah today to discuss an emergency transit agreement for Hormuz, but that meeting has been postponed. It remains unclear when the meeting will happen now, and Iran has stopped short of suggesting a full reopening and is also looking to retain control over who can actually pass through, Bloomberg reports.

Saudi’s oil export routes under multi-front pressure

The East-West pipeline is down: Drones launched from Iraq targeted Saudi’s East-West oil pipeline on Friday, temporarily shutting it and causing injuries and damage still being assessed, according to the Foreign Ministry. It’s the Kingdom’s main export lifeline since Hormuz effectively closed. Saudi oil buyers and traders told Reuters Riyadh could run out of exportable stocks within days if the pipeline isn’t restarted, potentially removing up to 4% of global supply.

Iraq is on notice: Riyadh condemned the strike but held back from retaliating after Iraqi PM Ali Al Zaidi asked for time to prevent further attacks. Baghdad opened an urgent investigation, dismissed its Maysan province operations commander, and closed the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran. Iraq was bombed by Saudi-US air forces in July after a similar attack, and remains under diplomatic pressure to demonstrate control over territory used by Iran-backed militias.

Houthis are cornering Bab Al Mandab: The group expanded its control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast, reaching the strategic islands of Perim and Hanish and the coastal towns of Mocha and Dhubab, Reuters reports That puts Houthi forces within roughly 50 km of the strait and in a stronger position to target shipping, threatening the same Red Sea route the pipeline feeds. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said shipping remained safe except for Saudi vessels, which continues the blockade from July.

Ongoing exchanges: The Houthis struck a military base in Najran's Sharurah yesterday, and a projectile fell in Al Tawwal governorate — injuring two people and damaging a mosque, Saudi civil defense said. The Kingdom retaliated with 129 strikes over the weekend from bases in Khamis Mushait and Taif across Taiz, Marib, Hodeidah, Al-Jawf, Saada, Amran, and Hajjah.

Where’s Washington in all this? Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked Trump for military support against the Houthis, Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. Washington declined direct military action but offered intelligence-sharing and targeting support. Trump said the Houthis had told his administration they did not want US involvement and were letting most ships pass. Al Zurqa expects Washington to widen intelligence support, air defense, early warning, and protection of facilities and sea lanes if the attacks continue, with any shift to broader offensive involvement depending on the nature and scope of the threat.