S&P and Fitch keep Jordan and Tunisia stable as donor money and central bank loans hold the line

S&P and Fitch have left Jordan and Tunisia’s ratings unchanged, with both maintaining their stable outlooks. In both cases, what’s holding the rating up sits outside the economy. Jordan has donor money and a port that is suddenly on everyone’s route map, while Tunisia repaid a EUR 700 mn eurobond in July with loans from its own central bank. Both countries are also energy importers who are paying for the war the same way — through a fuel bill inflated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is widening current account gaps and pushing subsidy spending up faster than either government is offsetting.

Jordan is getting paid to be the detour

S&P affirmed Jordan at BB-/B with a stable outlook, crediting the rerouting of regional trade through Aqaba, resilient remittances, and bilateral donor support for holding the economy together. Cargo volumes at the Red Sea port are up 16% y-o-y as shippers route around Hormuz. Growth is still expected to slow “modestly” to 2.5% this year, with S&P penciling in a 3.2% average for 2027-2029 on the assumption that regional security stabilizes within months.

The war shows up in the spending line: S&P revised its 2026 consolidated deficit forecast to 2.2% of GDP from 1.6%. First-half expenditure rose 5.2% against 1.2% revenue growth, as security costs climbed and Amman spent an estimated JOD 150 mn (USD 210 mn) importing LNG through Aqaba to cover a three-week cut in Israeli gas. Net general government debt will climb above 77% of GDP this year, and the current account deficit is seen widening to 7.2%. S&P assumes Brent averages USD 98 / bbl in 2026 before easing to USD 85 next year.

What’s holding the rating up: Foreign assistance worth roughly 12% of GDP, including a planned USD 2.1 bn in US support this year, up from USD 1.65 bn in 2025 and largely exempt from Washington’s aid cuts. Jordan also kept its IMF Extended Fund Facility on track through a fifth review in June. S&P’s downside trigger is that donor support thins or the security picture deteriorates.

Tunisia is paying for a war that isn’t nearby

Meanwhile, Fitch affirmed Tunisia at B- with a stable outlook. The war reaches Tunisia through a single channel — the price of imported fuel. The budget deficit is expected to widen to 6.4% of GDP this year against a 3.3% median for B-rated sovereigns, with fuel subsidies alone adding 0.8 percentage points. Fitch expects the deficit would run 1.4 percentage points wider still if crude held at USD 87 / bbl through 2028. The current account gap widens to 3.9% of GDP before narrowing below 2.5% in 2027-2028, on the assumption oil prices fall.

Where the financing comes from: Tunisia repaid its EUR 700 mn eurobond maturity in July with central bank loans, with TND 11 bn of such lending planned for 2026, up from TND 7 bn in 2024. Net external financing outflows ease to 1.4% of GDP from a record 3.6% in 2024, and reserves cover 3.3 months of external payments this year, rising to 3.7 months by 2028 — still short of the 4.1-month B median.