Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Turkey's latest data capture four stages of the war's impact

Reading the region’s data calendar: Bahrain’s latest numbers show an economy still mostly intact, its non-oil base growing and the war barely in frame. Qatar’s shows the shock itself: A quarter of hydrocarbon output gone in a single month. Oman’s show a budget that has taken a full quarter of the war and stayed in balance. And Turkey’s show a large neighbor slowing for reasons that predate the fighting and have little to do with it. All four readings came within a week of one another, but describe a baseline, a shock, a first full quarter, and a bystander.

There’s a timing gap that makes it difficult to compare — but comparison isn’t the story. Bahrain and Qatar reported on 1Q 2026, which ended a month into the war, while Oman’s fiscal bulletin, Qatar’s industry data, and Turkey’s GDP cover 2Q 2026 — the first full quarter of the war.

Bahrain as the baseline: Bahrain’s real GDP fell 3.8% y-o-y in 1Q 2026, which the Finance and Economy Ministry says was the outcome of the country’s economy’s “strong performance in January and February 2026, before it was impacted in March.” The headline figure is almost entirely oil: Hydrocarbon activity dropped 37.2%, while the non-oil economy — now 90.1% of output — grew 2.2%. Nine of 13 non-oil activities expanded, led by financial and ins. services, up 8.6% and now 19.7% of GDP.

Qatar captures the shock: Real GDP in Qatar contracted 7.0% y-o-y, the National Planning Council said. Hydrocarbon output fell 25.8% — the sector’s steepest drop in years, and one that reflects only March, when Iranian strikes damaged Ras Laffan and QatarEnergy halted exports and declared force majeure. Non-hydrocarbon GDP grew 3.5%, led by wholesale and retail trade (+9.0%), construction (+6.2%), real estate (+6.1%), and financial services (+4.8%). The conflict “placed pressure on Qatar’s economy, NPC Secretary General Abdulaziz Al Khalifa said, while pointing to “institutional strength, fiscal management, and strategic investments.”

Expect 2Q to be worse for Doha on the energy side. Qatar shipped 18 LNG cargoes in the war’s first six months against 509 a year earlier, a 96% collapse that Reuters calculations put at roughly USD 24 bn in foregone gas sales. LNG tanker crossings of Hormuz recovered to 40 in June after the US-Iran memorandum, before falling to 17 in July and nine in August, according to Kpler data. QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on Thursday, canceling five more cargoes to Italy’s Edison.

On the industrial side, the quarter wasn’t too bad: Qatar’s industrial sector recorded cumulative investment of QAR 248.4 bn in 2Q 2026 and a 6.6% increase in commercial registrations, the Commerce and Industry Ministry said. Eleven factories entered production in the quarter, taking the year’s total to 28 with QAR 253 mn (USD 69.2 mn) in investment. The ministry frames the registrations as evidence of Qatar's improving business environment ahead of Vision 2030 targets.

The outlier

Turkey is the only economy in the set with a complete second-quarter GDP print, and it is slowing for reasons that have little to do with Hormuz. Growth eased to 2.3% y-o-y from a revised 2.6% in 1Q, TurkStat said — the fourth straight quarter of deceleration. The headline was flattered by a 13.3% rebound in agriculture off last year’s frost-damaged base. Industry grew 2.4%, but construction contracted 1.9%, exports fell 3.4% in volume terms and government consumption dropped 1.8%; household consumption, up 3.5%, did most of the work. Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek called it “balanced growth with support from both domestic and external demand.”

Turkey is the control group: A large regional economy where the war shows up as an energy bill and a shipping premium, not a supply shock — and which is decelerating anyway. With the policy rate at 37%, July inflation at 31.75% and unemployment up to 8.1%, the government's 3.8% growth projection for 2026 is the number to watch.