UAE’s biggest school operators report stable enrollment and teacher retention going into 2026/27

The conflict-driven exodus of families and teachers from UAE schools that many feared last spring hasn’t materialized at the scale anyone was budgeting for, GEMS Education, Taaleem, and Nord Anglia — which together run dozens of the country's biggest premium and mid-market schools — tell our UAE desk. Retention is broadly flat y-o-y, teacher attrition is running below multi-year norms at all three groups, and the harder-hit segments — boarding and early years — have bounced back.

By the numbers: GEMS retention held at around 85%, CEO Dino Varkey tells us. Taaleem’s premium schools added around 4k students after accounting for the usual 10% annual churn, per CEO Alan Williamson. Nord Anglia says more than 90% of students have returned, with its biggest school — Nord Anglia School Dubai — full again for September on the back of a fast-moving waitlist. GEMS operates 45 UAE schools, while DFM-listed Taaleem runs 14 premium schools and 34 government-partnership schools. Nord Anglia has four, split between Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

The rebound extended to the segments that had been flagged as most exposed. Nord Anglia hit its broader target at its Swiss International Scientific School Dubai — one of only two boarding offerings in the country — after going into the year expecting half as many, Regional Managing Director Elizabeth Lamb tells us. The same applies for nurseries — Taaleem’s Kids First Group nurseries, which lost around AED 30 mn in net income at the peak of the disruption, are now forecasting AED 120 mn-range net income. That is short of the AED 150-160 mn original target, but a long way from the loss-making scenario Williamson says management had feared.

Teacher retention is the more striking data point. GEMS reported 16-17% turnover — its lowest in a decade, against a 25% international-schools norm — alongside an employee net promoter score of 54. Taaleem lost 9% of staff against a UAE-wide 20% average, of which only 1 percentage point was tied directly to conflict-related departures. Nord Anglia is starting the year fully staffed across its UAE schools, though Lamb noted some newer and younger teachers chose not to return after the initial missile activity.

Everyone we spoke to agreed that the solid retention rates are a testament to how much less transient the UAE has become as a destination for expats. Lamb attributes this to lifestyle perks and career progression prospects, while both Varkey and Williamson point to the booming property market as something that has helped anchor people in the UAE in a way that wasn’t as common a decade ago. GEMS’ data backs the same shift from a different angle: average student tenure across its portfolio has risen from 2.7 years to almost six.

Some headwinds remain: Dubai’s Knowledge and Human Development Authority froze private school fees for FY 2026/27 after last year’s up-to-2.35% increase, squeezing margins on rising teacher wages and materials costs. “That puts some pressure on the business because we’re having to deliver the same high quality at last year’s costs,” Lamb explains. Some expansions also were impacted — Nord Anglia has deferred several FY 2028 projects to 2029 on supply-chain disruptions, and GEMS lost a couple of months of construction but still expects projects more or less on time.

What’s next: The enrollment cycle runs through end-September, and a second wave of families is still holding out. “Even now, I think some families are still thinking, ‘let's give it one more week and just check everything remains quiet,’” Lamb says. Around 1% of GEMS’ student base had indicated they were relocating home; 30-40% of those have already come back or signalled they will, Varkey says. The operators are more or less confident the next school year will be one of growth, but agree it won’t be at the high margins seen over the past few years.