Fears of Israel-Turkey conflict grow after airbase strike as Iraq earns limited Hormuz passage

A heightened risk of conflict between Israel and Turkey has been the talk of the hour over the last few days amid rising incendiary rhetoric in Israel and following Israeli strikes on the Syrian airbase Abu Al Duhur under the pretense of possible Turkish military activity. Both Syria and Turkey vehemently denied current or planned presence in the airbase, with Syrian officials stressing the airbase was empty and under repair works when it was struck.

The attack undermines the US-led push for an Israel-Syria security agreement. Syria and Israel have been in discussions over a security arrangement, with Turkey and the US actively playing a mediation role. The US, Israel, and Syria signed the Joint Communication Mechanism with Syria in Paris in January 2026, establishing a “Joint Fusion Mechanism” for intelligence coordination and deconfliction, but talks towards a wider peace and security agreement had stalled, with both Syria and Turkey conditioning progress on halting Israel's expanding occupation in southern Syria.

Still, Syria and Israel are expected to resume talks soon, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shaibani said yesterday after a meeting with the Mossad chief, Axios reports.

The attack summoned a spate of global rebukes — and the sharpest came from the US. Washington’s ambassador to Ankara and special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, said on Saturday that Tuesday’s Israeli strike on the Abu Al Duhur air base in Idlib — 70 km from the Turkish border — may have been an attempt at “baiting the Turks” into a conflict ahead of Israel’s October election, in which Netanyahu is trailing in the polls, the Financial Times reports. Barrack said there were no Turkish military assets at the site and no plans to move any in, contradicting the Israeli rationale for the raid. Had Ankara scrambled fighter jets to intercept the Israeli warplanes, he said, the result could have been “World War Three.”

IN CONTEXT- An attack on Turkey would put NATO in a pickle. Turkey is a core member of the NATO defense alliance, and any Israeli attack would trigger Article 5, the collective defense clause, putting most of the European Union and the US at odds with their ride-or-die ally Israel. Last June, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dodged questions on the risk of a Turkey-Israel conflict, putting the onus on Turkey to refrain from escalating. “Let me not speculate on that because, in the end... President Erdogan is an extremely wise president, and he will avoid getting into a situation which gets out of hand,” he said.

Meanwhile in the strait

Iran has granted permission for a number of Iraqi oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports, citing Tehran’s state news agency IRNA, following repeated requests from Baghdad and a visit by Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf.

Iraqi President Nizar Amedi confirmed the facilitation but called the situation “complicated” — an admission that this is an exception, not a reopening.

The math explains why. Iraq pumped roughly 4 mn barrels a day before the war. Strait traffic remains sharply below pre-war levels, and ships still face attacks in the area. Baghdad has no national tanker fleet, leaving it dependent on foreign vessels Iran can approve case by case — which is why it’s also pushing crude through Turkey’s Ceyhan, with Syria’s Baniyas and Jordan’s Aqaba next in line.