That autumn outlook is looking hazier than ever

For months, the conventional wisdom in many quarters has been that the war would be in our rearview mirror by September, prompting Gulf governments to release a flood of spending through state agencies and companies in bids to lure back tourists, reassure investors, and give the real estate market a nudge. Conferences would stage a furious comeback as scenesters and execs alike pine for the opportunity to swap business cards. Sports would gather fans in their masses, and other events would follow suit as schools fill with families that turned their backs on offers of admission in London, Cairo, and Mumbai.

We want to be optimistic, but with July mere hours from being over and hostilities accelerating all week long, the shape of our collective autumn is hazier today than it was at the start of the month. Look no further than Saudi air strikes in Iraq, a drone attack on LNG infrastructure in Egypt, the prospect of Riyadh intervening again in Yemen, a gathering maritime coalition that wants to secure the Red Sea, and a refugee crisis in the EU that might have been sparked by Morocco.

The latest sign that fall may be quieter than we’d all like: Formula 1 is making contingency plans to end its season in Europe if the year’s final two races in Qatar (November) and Abu Dhabi (December) can’t go ahead because of the war, Reuters quotes F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali as saying. F1 will make a decision by September, the wire service reports.

AND- The NBA will not play any preseason games in our part of the world, ESPN reports, the first time in four years it will have given us a pass.

There are a few hints of sunshine as we head into the weekend, though: Accor said it returned to year-on-year growth in Dubai this month even as some hotels remain closed. There might (maybe, potentially) be an early deal for Hamas to disarm, as we note in this morning’s War Watch, below. And we have for you tons of news of investment in infrastructure and energy on this exceptionally busy news morning. –Patrick