MENA investment banking fees hit a three-year low as the US-Iran conflict squeezes dealmaking

MENA bankers have just gone through what is likely their worst first half in three years. Regional investment banking fees fell 19% y-o-y to USD 757.1 mn, a three-year low, as the US-Iran conflict throttled dealmaking through 2Q, per LSEG data.

The UAE is still where the money is, generating 55% of regional fees, ahead of Saudi Arabia (25%) and Qatar (7%).

Equity is where it hurts, with underwriting fees cratering 57% y-o-y to a five-year low of USD 69.5 mn as IPOs and follow-ons stalled in 2Q after the outbreak of the war. Debt held the line, with underwriting fees roughly flat at USD 297 mn, while completed M&A advisory fell 19% to USD 203.5 mn and syndicated lending dropped 16% to USD 187.4 mn.

Global banks advanced in the league table: JPMorgan took the top spot with USD 71 mn (up 21% y-o-y, 9.4% share), Citi second at USD 56.1 mn, and HSBC slid to third after its fees nearly halved to USD 36.7 mn. Barclays was the anomaly — fees up 240% to USD 33.1 mn. Gulf lenders, including UAE’s Emirates NBD and FAB, stayed in the race but missed the top three.

What to watch for next: Do issuers go to market in 2H with IPOs once the traditional summer lull ends? We were (very cautiously) optimistic 10 days ago, but the recent acceleration of attacks by both Iran and the US has us reconsidering.